scholarly journals User behaviour analysis and churn prediction in ISP

2020 ◽  
pp. 57-67
Author(s):  
Ahmet Turkmen ◽  
Cenk Anil Bahcevan ◽  
Youssef Alkhanafseh ◽  
Esra Karabiyik
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Query Logs ◽  
Boosting Algorithm ◽  
Different Sources ◽  
Better Than

There is no doubt that customer retention is vital for the service sector as companies’ revenue is significantly based on their customers’ financial returns. The prediction of customers who are at the risk of leaving a company’s services is not possible without using their connection details, support tickets and network traffic usage data. This paper demonstrates the importance of data mining and its outcome in the telecommunication area. The data in this paper are collected from different sources like Net Flow logs, call records and DNS query logs. These different types of data are aggregated together to decrease the missing information. Finally, machine learning algorithms are evaluated based on the customer dataset. The results of this study indicate that the gradient boosting algorithm performs better than other machine learning algorithms for this dataset.   Keywords: Data analysis, customer satisfaction, subscriber churn, machine learning, telecommunication.

scholarly journals APPLICATION OF MACHINE LEARNING METHODS TO APPROXIMATE THE EXPERIMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A MEMRISTOR

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Lopatenko
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Passive Element ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Boosting Algorithm

Memristor is a passive element in microelectronics, similar in its properties to a biological synapse. The possibility of using a memristor as an analog element in neural networks increases the interest of the scientific community in the study of its properties. In this paper, we study the possibility of modeling some characteristics of a memristor using machine learning algorithms, in particular, the gradient boosting algorithm.

Forecasting US movies box office performances in Turkey using machine learning algorithms

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (5) ◽  
pp. 6579-6590
Author(s):  
Sandy Çağlıyor ◽  
Başar Öztayşi ◽  
Selime Sezgin
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Box Office ◽  
Industry Forecast ◽  
The Impact

The motion picture industry is one of the largest industries worldwide and has significant importance in the global economy. Considering the high stakes and high risks in the industry, forecast models and decision support systems are gaining importance. Several attempts have been made to estimate the theatrical performance of a movie before or at the early stages of its release. Nevertheless, these models are mostly used for predicting domestic performances and the industry still struggles to predict box office performances in overseas markets. In this study, the aim is to design a forecast model using different machine learning algorithms to estimate the theatrical success of US movies in Turkey. From various sources, a dataset of 1559 movies is constructed. Firstly, independent variables are grouped as pre-release, distributor type, and international distribution based on their characteristic. The number of attendances is discretized into three classes. Four popular machine learning algorithms, artificial neural networks, decision tree regression and gradient boosting tree and random forest are employed, and the impact of each group is observed by compared by the performance models. Then the number of target classes is increased into five and eight and results are compared with the previously developed models in the literature.

scholarly journals Feasibility of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting the Deformation of Anodic Titanium Films by Modulating Anodization Processes

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1089
Author(s):  
Sung-Hee Kim ◽  
Chanyoung Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Multiclass Classification ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Smart Manufacturing ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Tio2 Nanostructures

This study aims to demonstrate the feasibility of applying eight machine learning algorithms to predict the classification of the surface characteristics of titanium oxide (TiO2) nanostructures with different anodization processes. We produced a total of 100 samples, and we assessed changes in TiO2 nanostructures’ thicknesses by performing anodization. We successfully grew TiO2 films with different thicknesses by one-step anodization in ethylene glycol containing NH4F and H2O at applied voltage differences ranging from 10 V to 100 V at various anodization durations. We found that the thicknesses of TiO2 nanostructures are dependent on anodization voltages under time differences. Therefore, we tested the feasibility of applying machine learning algorithms to predict the deformation of TiO2. As the characteristics of TiO2 changed based on the different experimental conditions, we classified its surface pore structure into two categories and four groups. For the classification based on granularity, we assessed layer creation, roughness, pore creation, and pore height. We applied eight machine learning techniques to predict classification for binary and multiclass classification. For binary classification, random forest and gradient boosting algorithm had relatively high performance. However, all eight algorithms had scores higher than 0.93, which signifies high prediction on estimating the presence of pore. In contrast, decision tree and three ensemble methods had a relatively higher performance for multiclass classification, with an accuracy rate greater than 0.79. The weakest algorithm used was k-nearest neighbors for both binary and multiclass classifications. We believe that these results show that we can apply machine learning techniques to predict surface quality improvement, leading to smart manufacturing technology to better control color appearance, super-hydrophobicity, super-hydrophilicity or batter efficiency.

scholarly journals Algorithmic and human prediction of success in human collaboration from visual features

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Saveski ◽  
Edmond Awad ◽  
Iyad Rahwan ◽  
Manuel Cebrian
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Visual Cues ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Group Performance ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Adventure Game ◽  
Group Success ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Better Than

AbstractAs groups are increasingly taking over individual experts in many tasks, it is ever more important to understand the determinants of group success. In this paper, we study the patterns of group success in Escape The Room, a physical adventure game in which a group is tasked with escaping a maze by collectively solving a series of puzzles. We investigate (1) the characteristics of successful groups, and (2) how accurately humans and machines can spot them from a group photo. The relationship between these two questions is based on the hypothesis that the characteristics of successful groups are encoded by features that can be spotted in their photo. We analyze >43K group photos (one photo per group) taken after groups have completed the game—from which all explicit performance-signaling information has been removed. First, we find that groups that are larger, older and more gender but less age diverse are significantly more likely to escape. Second, we compare humans and off-the-shelf machine learning algorithms at predicting whether a group escaped or not based on the completion photo. We find that individual guesses by humans achieve 58.3% accuracy, better than random, but worse than machines which display 71.6% accuracy. When humans are trained to guess by observing only four labeled photos, their accuracy increases to 64%. However, training humans on more labeled examples (eight or twelve) leads to a slight, but statistically insignificant improvement in accuracy (67.4%). Humans in the best training condition perform on par with two, but worse than three out of the five machine learning algorithms we evaluated. Our work illustrates the potentials and the limitations of machine learning systems in evaluating group performance and identifying success factors based on sparse visual cues.

Application of machine learning algorithms to predict permeability in tight sandstone formations

Nafta-Gaz ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 77 (5) ◽  
pp. 283-292
Author(s):  
Tomasz Topór ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Confining Pressure ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Core Material ◽  
Confining Stress ◽  
Tight Sandstone ◽  
Oil And Gas Exploration ◽  
Better Than

The application of machine learning algorithms in petroleum geology has opened a new chapter in oil and gas exploration. Machine learning algorithms have been successfully used to predict crucial petrophysical properties when characterizing reservoirs. This study utilizes the concept of machine learning to predict permeability under confining stress conditions for samples from tight sandstone formations. The models were constructed using two machine learning algorithms of varying complexity (multiple linear regression [MLR] and random forests [RF]) and trained on a dataset that combined basic well information, basic petrophysical data, and rock type from a visual inspection of the core material. The RF algorithm underwent feature engineering to increase the number of predictors in the models. In order to check the training models’ robustness, 10-fold cross-validation was performed. The MLR and RF applications demonstrated that both algorithms can accurately predict permeability under constant confining pressure (R2 0.800 vs. 0.834). The RF accuracy was about 3% better than that of the MLR and about 6% better than the linear reference regression (LR) that utilized only porosity. Porosity was the most influential feature of the models’ performance. In the case of RF, the depth was also significant in the permeability predictions, which could be evidence of hidden interactions between the variables of porosity and depth. The local interpretation revealed the common features among outliers. Both the training and testing sets had moderate-low porosity (3–10%) and a lack of fractures. In the test set, calcite or quartz cementation also led to poor permeability predictions. The workflow that utilizes the tidymodels concept will be further applied in more complex examples to predict spatial petrophysical features from seismic attributes using various machine learning algorithms.

scholarly journals Predicting hospitalization following psychiatric crisis care using machine learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthijs Blankers ◽  
Louk F. M. van der Post ◽  
Jack J. M. Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Crisis Care

Abstract Background Accurate prediction models for whether patients on the verge of a psychiatric criseis need hospitalization are lacking and machine learning methods may help improve the accuracy of psychiatric hospitalization prediction models. In this paper we evaluate the accuracy of ten machine learning algorithms, including the generalized linear model (GLM/logistic regression) to predict psychiatric hospitalization in the first 12 months after a psychiatric crisis care contact. We also evaluate an ensemble model to optimize the accuracy and we explore individual predictors of hospitalization. Methods Data from 2084 patients included in the longitudinal Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry with at least one reported psychiatric crisis care contact were included. Target variable for the prediction models was whether the patient was hospitalized in the 12 months following inclusion. The predictive power of 39 variables related to patients’ socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and previous mental health care contacts was evaluated. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the machine learning algorithms were compared and we also estimated the relative importance of each predictor variable. The best and least performing algorithms were compared with GLM/logistic regression using net reclassification improvement analysis and the five best performing algorithms were combined in an ensemble model using stacking. Results All models performed above chance level. We found Gradient Boosting to be the best performing algorithm (AUC = 0.774) and K-Nearest Neighbors to be the least performing (AUC = 0.702). The performance of GLM/logistic regression (AUC = 0.76) was slightly above average among the tested algorithms. In a Net Reclassification Improvement analysis Gradient Boosting outperformed GLM/logistic regression by 2.9% and K-Nearest Neighbors by 11.3%. GLM/logistic regression outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors by 8.7%. Nine of the top-10 most important predictor variables were related to previous mental health care use. Conclusions Gradient Boosting led to the highest predictive accuracy and AUC while GLM/logistic regression performed average among the tested algorithms. Although statistically significant, the magnitude of the differences between the machine learning algorithms was in most cases modest. The results show that a predictive accuracy similar to the best performing model can be achieved when combining multiple algorithms in an ensemble model.

scholarly journals Predicting Hospitalization following Psychiatric Crisis Care using Machine Learning

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthijs Blankers ◽  
Louk F. M. van der Post ◽  
Jack J. M. Dekker
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Predictor Variables ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
K Nearest Neighbors ◽  
Psychiatric Crisis ◽  
Crisis Care

Abstract Background: It is difficult to accurately predict whether a patient on the verge of a potential psychiatric crisis will need to be hospitalized. Machine learning may be helpful to improve the accuracy of psychiatric hospitalization prediction models. In this paper we evaluate and compare the accuracy of ten machine learning algorithms including the commonly used generalized linear model (GLM/logistic regression) to predict psychiatric hospitalization in the first 12 months after a psychiatric crisis care contact, and explore the most important predictor variables of hospitalization. Methods: Data from 2,084 patients with at least one reported psychiatric crisis care contact included in the longitudinal Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry were used. The accuracy and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the machine learning algorithms were compared. We also estimated the relative importance of each predictor variable. The best and least performing algorithms were compared with GLM/logistic regression using net reclassification improvement analysis. Target variable for the prediction models was whether or not the patient was hospitalized in the 12 months following inclusion in the study. The 39 predictor variables were related to patients’ socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and previous mental health care contacts. Results: We found Gradient Boosting to perform the best (AUC=0.774) and K-Nearest Neighbors performing the least (AUC=0.702). The performance of GLM/logistic regression (AUC=0.76) was above average among the tested algorithms. Gradient Boosting outperformed GLM/logistic regression and K-Nearest Neighbors, and GLM outperformed K-Nearest Neighbors in a Net Reclassification Improvement analysis, although the differences between Gradient Boosting and GLM/logistic regression were small. Nine of the top-10 most important predictor variables were related to previous mental health care use. Conclusions: Gradient Boosting led to the highest predictive accuracy and AUC while GLM/logistic regression performed average among the tested algorithms. Although statistically significant, the magnitude of the differences between the machine learning algorithms was modest. Future studies may consider to combine multiple algorithms in an ensemble model for optimal performance and to mitigate the risk of choosing suboptimal performing algorithms.

scholarly journals Data Aggregation and Terror Group Prediction using Machine Learning Algorithms

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1467-1469 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Data Aggregation ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Classification Algorithms ◽  
Terrorist Groups ◽  
Different Sources

This paper is about to introduce a proposed system that examines growth or decay of the terrorist groups by the time, active locations, types of attack they carry out, motive targets, Weapon mastery and availability and many parameters to analyze the patterns and hidden structures in their activity and to predict the occasion and type of their future attack. We have done a detailed analysis of data we get from different sources and we also performed different classification algorithms on the available data to find the chances of probable attack on different regions.Based on results finding which of the algorithms works with highest accuracy.

scholarly journals Data Analytics for Monitoring the Satisfactory Parameters of Airline Passengers using Machine Learning Algorithms in Python

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1231-1235
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Analytics ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Complex Information ◽  
Huge Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting Machine ◽  
Airline Passengers ◽  
Effective Representation

An effective representation by machine learning algorithms is to obtain the results especially in Big Data, there are numerous applications can produce outcome, whereas a Random Forest Algorithm (RF) Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Decision tree (DT) in Python will able to give the higher accuracy in regard with classifying various parameters of Airliner Passengers satisfactory levels. The complex information of airline passengers has provided huge data for interpretation through different parameters of satisfaction that contains large information in quantity wise. An algorithm has to support in classifying these data’s with accuracies. As a result some of the methods may provide less precision and there is an opportunity of information cancellation and furthermore information missing utilizing conventional techniques. Subsequently RF and GBM used to conquer the unpredictability and exactness about the information provided. The aim of this study is to identify an Algorithm which is suitable for classifying the satisfactory level of airline passengers with data analytics using python by knowing the output. The optimization and Implementation of independent variables by training and testing for accuracy in python platform determined the variation between the each parameters and also recognized RF and GBM as a better algorithm in comparison with other classifying algorithms.

scholarly journals A Method for Identifying Midlatitude Mesoscale Convective Systems in Radar Mosaics. Part I: Segmentation and Classification

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (7) ◽  
pp. 1575-1598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex M. Haberlie ◽  
Walker S. Ashley
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Probability Of Detection ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Probabilistic Prediction ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

AbstractThis research evaluates the ability of image-processing and select machine-learning algorithms to identify midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in radar-reflectivity images for the conterminous United States. The process used in this study is composed of two parts: segmentation and classification. Segmentation is performed by identifying contiguous or semicontiguous regions of deep, moist convection that are organized on a horizontal scale of at least 100 km. The second part, classification, is performed by first compiling a database of thousands of precipitation clusters and then subjectively assigning each sample one of the following labels: 1) midlatitude MCS, 2) unorganized convective cluster, 3) tropical system, 4) synoptic system, or 5) ground clutter and/or noise. The attributes of each sample, along with their assigned label, are used to train three machine-learning algorithms: random forest, gradient boosting, and “XGBoost.” Results using a testing dataset suggest that the algorithms can distinguish between MCS and non-MCS samples with a high probability of detection and low probability of false detection. Further, the trained algorithm predictions are well calibrated, allowing reliable probabilistic classification. The utility of this two-step procedure is illustrated by generating spatial frequency maps of automatically identified precipitation clusters that are stratified by using various reflectivity and probabilistic prediction thresholds. These results suggest that machine learning can add value by limiting the amount of false-positive (non-MCS) samples that are not removed by segmentation alone.

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