scholarly journals Multi-Scale, Multi-Season, Multi-Indicator Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Trends in Ethiopia -Implications to Dryland Agriculture and Food Security

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dawd Temam ◽  
Venkatesh Uddameri ◽  
Ghazal Mohammadi ◽  
Elma Hernandez ◽  
Stephen Ekwaro-Osire
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Soil Dryness ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
Indicator Evaluation

Ethiopian agriculture is not only affected by precipitation declines (meteorological droughts) but also soil dryness caused by temperature increases and associated long-term hydrological changes. Meteorological drought indicators (e.g., SPI), do not fully capture the water deficits in agricultural systems (i.e., agricultural droughts). An Ethiopia-wide assessment of meteorological and agricultural drought trends was carried out to characterize century-scale (1902 – 2016) changes in droughts. SPI and SPEI calculated using two-month accumulation and the Palmer Z-index were used for assessing intra-season drought trends. SPI and SPEI at six-month accumulations and PDSI were used to define full season droughts. Detrended variance corrected Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis during Bega (dry), Belg (short-rainy) and Meher (long-rainy) seasons. The SPEI-2 and PDSI were most aggressive in characterizing intra-season and seasonal-drought trends. There is on average 1% - 6% annual increase in dryness with the lower estimate based on precipitation declines and the upper end accounting for seasonal soil moisture dynamics. The area between 37.5° E – 42.5° E denotes a climate hot-spot. Precipitation declines in Belg along the Ethiopia-South-Sudan/Sudan border during Belg and along Eretria-Ethiopia border during Meher have the potential to exacerbate transboundary water conflicts and further threaten the food security of the region.

scholarly journals 100 Years of Progress in Applied Meteorology. Part III: Additional Applications

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 24.1-24.35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sue Ellen Haupt ◽  
Branko Kosović ◽  
Scott W. McIntosh ◽  
Fei Chen ◽  
Kathleen Miller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Security Sector ◽  
Environmental System ◽  
Applied Meteorology ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
Behavior Models

AbstractApplied meteorology is an important and rapidly growing field. This chapter concludes the three-chapter series of this monograph describing how meteorological information can be used to serve society’s needs while at the same time advancing our understanding of the basics of the science. This chapter continues along the lines of Part II of this series by discussing ways that meteorological and climate information can help to improve the output of the agriculture and food-security sector. It also discusses how agriculture alters climate and its long-term implications. It finally pulls together several of the applications discussed by treating the food–energy–water nexus. The remaining topics of this chapter are those that are advancing rapidly with more opportunities for observation and needs for prediction. The study of space weather is advancing our understanding of how the barrage of particles from other planetary bodies in the solar system impacts Earth’s atmosphere. Our ability to predict wildland fires by coupling atmospheric and fire-behavior models is beginning to impact decision-support systems for firefighters. Last, we examine how artificial intelligence is changing the way we predict, emulate, and optimize our meteorological variables and its potential to amplify our capabilities. Many of these advances are directly due to the rapid increase in observational data and computer power. The applications reviewed in this series of chapters are not comprehensive, but they will whet the reader’s appetite for learning more about how meteorology can make a concrete impact on the world’s population by enhancing access to resources, preserving the environment, and feeding back into a better understanding how the pieces of the environmental system interact.

scholarly journals An Investigation into the Spatial and Temporal Variability of the Meteorological Drought in Jordan

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haitham Aladaileh ◽  
Mohammed Al Qinna ◽  
Barta Karoly ◽  
Emad Al-Karablieh ◽  
János Rakonczai
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Hierarchical Clustering ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Mann Kendall Test ◽  
The Impact

Following the impact of droughts witnessed during the last decade there is an urgent need to develop a drought management strategy, policy framework, and action plan for Jordan. This study aims to provide a historical baseline using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and meteorological drought maps, and to investigate the spatial and temporal trends using long-term historical precipitation records. Specifically, this study is based on the statistical analysis of 38 years of monthly rainfall data, gathered from all 29 meteorological stations that cover Jordan. The Mann–Kendall test and linear regression analysis were used to uncover evidence of long-term trends in precipitation. Drought indices were used for calculating the meteorological SPI on an annual (SPI12), 6-months (SPI6), and 3-months basis (SPI3). At each level, every drought event was characterized according to its duration, interval, and intensity. Then, drought maps were generated using interpolation kriging to investigate the spatial extent of drought events, while drought patterns were temporally characterized using multilinear regression and spatial grouped using the hierarchical clustering technique. Both annual and monthly trend analyses and the Mann–Kendall test indicated significant reduction of precipitation in time for all weather stations except for Madaba. The rate of decrease is estimated at approximately 1.8 mm/year for the whole country. The spatial SPI krig maps that were generated suggest the presence of two drought types in the spatial dimension: Local and national. Local droughts reveal no actual observed trends or repeatable patterns of occurrence. However, looking at meteorological droughts across all time scales indicated that Jordan is facing an increasing number of local droughts. With a probability of occurrence of once every two years to three years. On the other hand, extreme national droughts occur once every 15 to 20 years and last for two or more consecutive years. Linear trends indicated significant increase in drought magnitude by time with a rate of 0.02 (p < 0.0001). Regression analysis indicated that draught in Jordan is time dependent (p < 0.001) rather than being spatially dependent (p > 0.99). Hierarchical clustering was able to group national draughts into three zones, namely the northern zone, the eastern zone, and the southern zone. This study highlights the urgent need for a monitoring program to investigate local and national drought impacts on all sectors, as well as the development of a set of proactive risk management measures and preparedness plans for various physiographic regions.

Multi-Sensor Multi-Satellite Remote Sensing of Drought Analysis with Multi-Sectoral Impacts and Multi-Scale Vulnerability in Thailand

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sasin Jirasirirak ◽  
Aksara Putthividhya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Monitoring ◽  
Groundwater Storage ◽  
Multi Scale

&lt;p&gt;Drought monitoring and assessment is critical considering the immense costs and impacts Thailand has been experiencing these days.&amp;#160; Deficit in precipitation is typically referred to as meteorological drought.&amp;#160; While deficit in soil moisture (i.e., below average moisture in the soil) is known as agricultural drought.&amp;#160; Hydrological drought corresponds to a deficit in runoff or groundwater resources. Socio-economic drought (also known as anthropogenic drought) refers to water stress intensified by human activities and increase water demands.&amp;#160; Our long-term research in ground observation drought monitoring and assessment has been integrated with remotely sensed precipitation and soil moisture information necessary for the computation of extensively used drought indicators, such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) using widely available satellite-based precipitation products including PERSIANN, TRMM, GSMaP, and IMERG to demonstrate the multidimensional and multi-sectoral impacts of change in rainfall patterns which is directly linked to drought assessment.&amp;#160; Long-term satellite-based soil moisture time series obtained from NASA&amp;#8217;s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission have been employed for drought detection from provided near real-time top soil moisture estimates in accordance with The Gravity Recover and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. &amp;#160;Preliminary results indicate that multi-sensor multi-satellite remotely sensing data can enhance soil moisture mapping and its long-term spatial and temporal trends match well with change in terrestrial water storage and groundwater storage of the country.&amp;#160;&amp;#160; This approach can provide more robust and integrated measure of drought based on wider range of satellite observations such as precipitation, soil moisture, total water storage anomalies, groundwater storage change, offering the opportunities to investigate droughts from different viewpoints. Drought monitoring scheme developed in this work can serve as a supporting tool for water resources and climate change policy making.&amp;#160; It can contribute to improve understanding on potential impacts of climate change, multi-sectoral linkages, multi-scale vulnerability, and adaptation programs. &amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Long-term trends in agricultural droughts over Netherlands and Germany: how extreme was the year 2018?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yafei Huang ◽  
Jonas Weis ◽  
Harry Vereecken ◽  
Harrie-Jan Hendricks Franssen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Sandy Loam ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Moisture Index

Abstract. Droughts can have important impacts on environment and economy like in the year 2018 in parts of Europe. Droughts can be analyzed in terms of meteorological drought, agricultural drought, hydrological drought and social-economic drought. In this paper, we focus on meteorological and agricultural drought and analyzed drought trends for the period 1965–2019 and assessed how extreme the drought year 2018 was in Germany and the Netherlands. The analysis was made on the basis of the following drought indices: standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized soil moisture index (SSI), potential precipitation deficit (PPD) and ET deficit. SPI and SSI were computed at two time scales, the period April-September and a 12-months period. In order to analyze drought trends and the ranking of the year 2018, HYDRUS 1-D simulations were carried out for 31 sites with long-term meteorological observations and soil moisture, potential evapotranspiration (ET) and actual ET were determined for five soil types (clay, silt, loam, sandy loam and loamy sand). The results show that the year 2018 was severely dry, which was especially related to the highest potential ET in the time series 1965–2019, for most of the sites. For around half of the 31 sites the year 2018 had the lowest SSI, and largest PPD and ET-deficit in the 1965–2019 time series, followed by 1976 and 2003. The trend analysis reveals that meteorological drought (SPI) hardly shows significant trends over 1965–2019 over the studied domain, but agricultural droughts (SSI) are increasing, at several sites significantly, and at even more sites PPD and ET deficit show significant trends. The increasing droughts over Germany and Netherlands are mainly driven by increasing potential ET and increasing vegetation water demand.

Agricultural Drought and Its Monitoring and Prediction: Some Concepts

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijendra K. Boken
Keyword(s):  
Water Demand ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Dry Spell ◽  
Rural Water ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Geographical Dimension

Droughts develop largely due to below-average precipitation over a land area, and they adversely affect various economic sectors in a region. Some of these adverse effects include reductions in agricultural production, hydropower generation, urban and rural water supplies, and industrial outputs. These effects lead to other consequences, secondary and tertiary, that further impact an economy. For instance, when agricultural production declines, food and other commodities tend to cost more and cause economic inflation in a society. Chain effects of persistent droughts can shatter an economy and even cause famine and sociopolitical upheaval in some countries. How does one define a drought? Usually, either precipitation or a form of drought impact is used to define a drought. Because precipitation and drought impacts vary spatially, there is a geographical dimension to definitions of drought. In Saudi Arabia or Libya, droughts are recognized after two to three years without significant rainfall, whereas in Bali (Indonesia), any period of six days or more without rain is considered drought (Dracup et al., 1980; Sen, 1990). In Egypt, any year in which the Nile does not flood is considered a drought year. More than 150 definitions of drought are available in the literature (Gibbs, 1975; Krishnan, 1979; Dracup et al., 1980; Wilhite and Glantz, 1987). For example, a drought can be characterized as climatological, meteorological, water management, socioeconomic, absolute, partial, dry spell, serious, severe, multiyear, design, critical, point, or regional (Palmer, 1965; Herbst et al., 1966; Joseph, 1970a, 1970b; Askew et al., 1971; Beard and Kubik, 1972; Karl, 1983; Santos, 1983; Alley, 1984; Chang, 1990). Often, the difference between an estimated water demand and an expected water supply in a region becomes the basis to define a drought for that region (Kumar and Panu, 1997). A few of the chapters in this book provide a brief description of drought definitions that have been adopted in some countries. Despite the variation in drought definitions, a drought is broadly categorized as meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, or socioeconomic. A meteorological drought is said to occur when seasonal or annual precipitation falls below its long-term average.

scholarly journals Agriculture and Food Security in Mozambique

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Ferrão ◽  
Victoria Bell ◽  
Luis Alfaro Cardoso ◽  
Tito Fernandes
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Short Review ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
General Wellbeing

The objective of this short review is to contribute to the debate on the role of agriculture transformation in the development process and as an engine to reduce poverty and improve general wellbeing through better access to nutrients in Mozambique. Agricultural services are organized by Provinces but still there is no accurate data on food production, consumption and trade trends in a large sample. It is recognized the complexity of the food security concept and the need of a multidimensional definition and approach. The increase in agricultural productivity can probably be seen as a necessary but not a sufficient condition to achieve long term food security in Mozambique or Sub-Saharan Africa.  Competing views about the relevance of agriculture for growth and development imply different policy priorities in Africa.

GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY AMID THE GLOBAL CRISIS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 134-141
Author(s):  
P. M. TARANOV ◽  
◽  
A. S. PANASYUK ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Food Problem ◽  
Supply Problem ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Food Security Indicators ◽  
Security Indicators ◽  
Global Food

The authors assess the prospects for solving the global food problem based on an analysis of the dynamics of food security indicators at the global and regional levels. The global food problem at work refers to the growing population of a planet affected by hunger and other forms of malnutrition. The food security situation has worsened for five years - in 2015–2019, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the food supply problem. The prevalence of moderate to severe food insecurity has affected more than 25% of the world's population. In lowincome countries, malnutrition affects more than 58% of the population. Food security is threatened by the consequences of the spread of coronavirus infection in the short term. In the medium and long term, climate change and the crisis in the governance of the world economy are the greatest threats. Modern international economic institutions are unable to withstand the prospect of declining global food security.

Satellite Data Based Soil Water Index as a Tool to Monitor Droughts and Agricultural Crisis -An Example of Yavatmal District, Maharashtra, India

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 12-18
Author(s):  
Vijendra Boken
Keyword(s):  
Soil Water ◽  
Satellite Data ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Coefficient Of Correlation ◽  
Water Index ◽  
Farmer Suicides ◽  
June July

Yavatmal is one of the drought prone districts in Maharashtra state of India and has witnessed an agricultural crisis to the extent that hundreds of its farmers have committed suicides in recent years. Satellite data based products have previously been used globally for monitoring and predicting of drought, but not for monitoring their extreme impacts that may include farmer-suicides. In this study, the performance of the Soil Water Index (SWI) derived from the surface soil moisture estimated by the European Space Agency’s Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) is assessed. Using the 2007-2015 data, it was found that the relationship of the SWI anomaly was bit stronger (coefficient. of correlation = 0.59) with the meteorological drought or precipitation than with the agricultural drought or crop yields of major crops (coefficient. of correlation = 0.50).  The farmer-suicide rate was better correlated with the SWI anomaly averaged annually than with the SWI anomaly averaged only for the monsoon months (June, July, August, and September). The correlation between the SWI averaged annually increased to 0.89 when the averages were taken for three years, with the highest correlation occurring between the suicide rate and the SWI anomaly averaged for three years. However, a positive relationship between SWI and the suicide rate indicated that drought was not a major factor responsible for suicide occurrence and other possible factors responsible for suicide occurrence need to examine in detail.

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