scholarly journals Understanding the Spread of COVID-19 in Japan: Preliminary Results from a System Dynamics Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuro Uehara
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Hospital Capacity ◽  
Point Estimates ◽  
The Government

This study developed a system dynamics model to understand the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan. The model is built on the generic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, and Recovered) framework adopted by Ghaffarzadegan and Rahmandad (2020) to build a system dynamics model for the spread of COVID-19 in Iran. Japan seems to be successful in containing the spread compared with other countries, and its first peak has passed. However, because this also leaves a large population still susceptible to the virus, it could cause a second and potentially higher peak of infection after the state of emergency aimed at reducing contact rate is lifted. As the government has proposed the “New Lifestyle,” it is critical to behave cautiously so as not to be infected. While the model focuses on the SEIR structure, the reflection of other sub-structures such as economy and hospital capacity that have tradeoffs with reducing contact rate should be beneficial. However, before extending the model, it is also critical to conduct estimates using confidence intervals rather than point estimates to better reflect uncertainties.

scholarly journals The Impact of Price Subsidy on Rice Self-Sufficiency Level in Malaysia: A System Dynamics Approach

2018 ◽  
pp. 801-806
Author(s):  
Farah Hanim Abdul Rahim ◽  
Nurul Nazihahhawari ◽  
Norhaslinda Zainal Abidin
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Local Production ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Price Subsidy ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The Malaysian government had targeted for the rice industry in the country to achieve 100% rice self-sufficiency where Malaysia’s rice self-sufficiency level (SSL) is currently at 65% to 75%. Thus, the government had implemented few policies to increase the rice production in Malaysia to meet the growing demand of rice. This paper focus on analyzing the impact of price subsidy on the rice production system in Malaysia using a system dynamics modelling approach. Scenario analysis was conducted using the developed system dynamics model by making changes on the price subsidy and observe the impact of the changes on the rice production and rice SSL. The developed system dynamics model offers better understanding of the effect of price subsidy on the rice self-sufficiency level. Based on the scenario analysis, the result shows that a 50% increase in the price subsidy leads to a substantial increase in demand as the rice price drops. Accordingly, the local production increases by 15%. However, the SSL slightly decreases as the local production is insufficient to meet the large demand.

The Construction Agency's Reasonable Profit Research Based on System Dynamics

2013 ◽  
Vol 357-360 ◽  
pp. 2478-2482
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Liang Wang
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Project Success ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Profit Margins ◽  
Cost Rate ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Relationship

The government investment in the construction project general always use of the design budgetary estimate as the construction-agent charge fees foundation, and with reference to the owners management cost rate to calculate the construction-agent charge. By analyzing the composition of the construction-agent charge and the difference between the owners management cost and the construction-agent charge, studying of the composition and rates of construction-agent charge in various key cities nationwide in detail, pointing out the fact that the current generation of construction-agent charge rates are too low, and then established a system dynamics model and analyzed the relationship between a reasonable profit margins and project success rate dynamically. Pointed out the necessity of a reasonable profit margin, and make same recommendations accordingly.

scholarly journals A System Dynamics Model to Assess the Effectiveness of Governmental Support Policies for Renewable Electricity

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3426
Author(s):  
Huilu Yu ◽  
Youning Yan ◽  
Suocheng Dong
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Renewable Electricity ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Positive Externality ◽  
Support Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Biomass Power Plant

China’s support policy for renewable electricity belongs to a feed-in tariffs scheme. With the rapid development of renewable electricity industries, this set of policies brought about a heavy fiscal burden for the government. The exploration of whether current support policy provided excessive subsidies for renewable electricity is of great practical significance. We hold an idea that the internalization of positive externality is the only criterion for the government to support the development of a renewable electricity industry. The problem of whether the current policy provides excessive subsidies for renewable electricity industry can be solved by assessing whether its positive externality is internalized, as renewable electricity industry has a characteristic of externality. Our study object is an assumed biomass power plant in Jingning County, Gansu Province. A system dynamics model was built. Applying the environmental cost accounting method and net present value analysis method, we connected the techno-economic analysis of the biomass power plant with the measurement of positive externality of biomass power generation together. In this system dynamics model, we developed an indicator to reveal whether the subsidies provided by governmental policies can compensate the positive externality generated by the assumed biomass power plant. This study mainly draws the following conclusions: Firstly, China’s current support policy does provide excessive subsidies for the renewable power industry. The subsidies received by biomass power plants from the government are higher than the positive externality generated by them; secondly, the positive externality measurement of the biomass power industry is influenced by many regional factors; thirdly, without governmental policy support, biomass power plants cannot compete with traditional power companies; fourthly, as biomass power generation is concerned, the current price subsidy intensity is about US$0.0132 higher per kWh than a reasonable level. Furthermore, the parameters frequently applied in the calculation of the prices of pollutant emission reduction in Chinese research papers are relatively small, which is only half of their actual values. Jingning County, situated in inland west-northern China, lacks typicality. There is a limitation in judging whether the government’s support policy for renewable electricity is reasonable through a feasibility analysis of investment in a biomass power generation project. This may be the main drawback of this study.

scholarly journals Evaluación de la dinámica urbana para la ciudad de Envigado

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (34) ◽  
pp. 29-48
Author(s):  
Alejandro Betancourt ◽  
Luis Antonio Quintero
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Saturation Point ◽  
Housing Policies ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City

This article presents the methodological conceptualization and the main results of a System Dynamics model, which main objective is to support the housing policies in the city of Envigado. The used methodology developed a scenario-based model to emulate the approximate evolution of the housing demand and supply for the city, using a scenario of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a housing authorization strategy as input. Diverse results were obtained, for instance it was found that due to the soil availability, the housing supply reaches the saturation point between 2040 and 2046. Finally this article could be considered as an example of how academic tools such as System Dynamics can be used by decisions makers in the government.

System Dynamics Model to Support Rice Production and Distribution for Food Security

2014 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erma Suryani ◽  
Rully Agus Hendrawan ◽  
Totok Mulyono ◽  
Lily Puspa Dewi
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Pilot Study ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Improve Food Security

Food security is a national issue as the impact of food insecurity in several regions in Indonesia. The number of Indonesia's large population requires a full attention by the government to meet people's welfare, especially relating to food. A comprehensive study is therefore required to solve this problem. In this research, we utilized System Dynamics based on consideration that this framework offers the ability to incorporate expert knowledge in the model and the ability to model highly non-linear behavior. This pilot study seek developed a System Dynamics model to improve food security by considering regional condition changes to evaluate several policies for strategic decision making; and help government in improving food security through several policy scenarios development such as land intensification, land expansion, and distribution from other region (subdivre) which has surplus stock and import. This study could be considered as a pilot study to improve food security through some scenarios such as land intensification, land expansion, distribution from other regional district, and import. 

A System Dynamics Model of Health Insurance Financing in Austria

2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-62
Author(s):  
Patrick Einzinger ◽  
Günther Zauner ◽  
G. Ganjeizadeh-Rouhani
Keyword(s):  
Health Insurance ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model

scholarly journals Transforming a Liability into an Asset: A System Dynamics Model for Free-Ranging Dog Population Management

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 56
Author(s):  
Urmila Basu Mallick ◽  
Marja H. Bakermans ◽  
Khalid Saeed
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Social Integration ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Innovative Strategies ◽  
Management Context ◽  
Free Ranging ◽  
Social Rewards

Using Indian free-ranging dogs (FRD) as a case study, we propose a novel intervention of social integration alongside previously proposed methods for dealing with FRD populations. Our study subsumes population dynamics, funding avenues, and innovative strategies to maintain FRD welfare and provide societal benefits. We develop a comprehensive system dynamics model, featuring identifiable parameters customizable for any management context and imperative for successfully planning a widescale FRD population intervention. We examine policy resistance and simulate conventional interventions alongside the proposed social integration effort to compare monetary and social rewards, as well as costs and unintended consequences. For challenging socioeconomic ecological contexts, policy resistance is best overcome by shifting priority strategically between social integration and conventional techniques. The results suggest that social integration can financially support a long-term FRD intervention, while transforming a “pest” population into a resource for animal-assisted health interventions, law enforcement, and conservation efforts.

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