scholarly journals Analysis of Susceptibility to Slope Movements in the Environment of Road Infrastructures. Models for Obtaining Predictive Mapping Applied to Roads in the Provinces of Malaga and Granada (Spain)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
María J. Perles-Roselló ◽  
Santiago Pardo-García ◽  
Juan F. Sortino-Barrionuevo ◽  
Sergio Reyes-Corredera ◽  
Claudio Puglisi
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Models ◽  
Area Under Curve ◽  
Causative Factor ◽  
The Other ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Slope Gradient ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Predictive Mapping ◽  
Slope Movements ◽  
High Degree

This study addresses the peculiarities of the generation of slope movements in the context of road infrastructures and provide a predictive mapping of susceptibility to movements on slopes adjacent to road infrastructures (rockfalls). An inventory of slopes movements was mapped. From the development of the inventory of constant cases of mobilization that is used as a dependent variable, two statistical models can be obtained and compared for the same study area. One of them is based on the concept of frequency, whilst the other one is based on the application of a logistic regression. The results reveal the preponderant importance of lithology as a predictive variable, followed, at a considerable distance, by the slope gradient. Likewise, the importance of an unnatural and characteristic variable area of study, such as the presence of artificial cuts, is indicated as a causative factor. The results show a high degree of coincidence between the tendency of susceptibility predicted by the model, and the effective presence of empirical mobilization signs on the slopes, with Area Under Curve (AUC) values for Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) around 0.8.

Relativity of Judgements about Sound Amplitude and the Asymmetry of the Same-Different ROC

1994 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 1035-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Hautus ◽  
R. John Irwin ◽  
Sarah Sutherland
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
The Other ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
The Asymmetry ◽  
Receiver Operating

The problem of deciding whether two things are the same or different in magnitude can be solved by judging one magnitude relative to the other, or by making absolute judgements about the magnitude of each. The shape of the resulting receiver operating characteristic depends on which solution is adopted. In order to obtain empirical receiver operating characteristics, we therefore had subjects rate their confidence that two tone amplitudes were the same or different. Four subjects each made 500 ratings of three differences in amplitude. The asymmetry in the obtained characteristics indicated that subjects made relative rather than absolute judgements of the amplitudes, despite the fact that making absolute judgements would lead to better performance on the task.

scholarly journals Skor prediktor kematian sepsis neonatorum awitan dini

Sari Pediatri ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Rizki Kawa Ramadani ◽  
Alifah Anggraini ◽  
Setya Wandita
Keyword(s):  
Likelihood Ratio ◽  
Area Under Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Receiver Operating

Latar belakang. Sepsis neonatorum awitan dini memiliki angka kematian tinggi dan sering memerlukan perawatan intensif. Beberapa sistem skor dikembangkan sebagai prediktor luaran, tetapi sering hanya pada berat lahir rendah atau memerlukan banyak pemeriksaan penunjang. Sistem skoring baru yang mudah, sederhana, cepat, dan dapat diaplikasikan akan memudahkan klinisi memprediksi luaran untuk pemilihan intervensi maupun konseling.Tujuan. Mengembangkan model skor sebagai prediktor kematian sepsis neonatorum awitan dini.Metode. Penelitian kohort retrospektif di RSUP Dr. Sardjito Yogyakarta menggunakan data sekunder bayi lahir bulan Januari 2014 – Mei 2015 dengan sepsis neonatorum awitan dini sesuai kriteria klinis. Bayi dieksklusi jika memiliki kelainan bawaan mayor atau data tidak lengkap. Pengembangan sistem skoring dengan metode Spiegelhalter Knill-Jones. Pembobotan skor digunakan nilai koefisien regresi logistik, sedangkan penentuan nilai titik potong skor digunakan kurva receiver operating characteristics (ROC).Hasil. Seratus delapan subjek memenuhi kriteria inklusi dan eksklusi. Mortalitas sebesar 24%. Pengambilan skor 6 variabel yang memenuhi nilai LR, yaitu usia kehamilan (≤33 minggu: skor: 2, >33 minggu: skor -4), asfiksia (ya: 4, tidak: -5), leukopenia (≤5000: 10, >5000: 0), Trombositopenia (≤100.000: 5, >100.000: 0), absolute neutrophyl count (≤2000: 18, >2000: -1), dan biakan kuman (tumbuh: 10, tidak tumbuh: -3). Area under curve (AUC) adalah 83,8% (74,3%-92%). Titik potong pada skor 2 memiliki sensitivitas 84,6%, spesifisitas 64,4%, nilai ramal positif 43%, nilai ramal negatif 93%, likelihood ratio (LR) positif 2,39, dan LR negatif 0,24.Kesimpulan. Skor ≥2 dapat memprediksi kematian sepsis neonatorum awitan dini. 

scholarly journals NILAI DIAGNOSTIK SKOR STROKE DAVE UNHAS PADA PENDERITA STROKE ISKEMIK KARDIOEMBOLI DENGAN FIBRILASI ATRIUM

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Supardin Supardin ◽  
David Gunawan ◽  
Cahyono Kaelan
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Ct Scan ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Area Under Curve ◽  
Diagnostic Value ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
P Value ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Stroke Patients

  DIAGNOSTIC VALUE OF DAVE UNHAS STROKE SCORE IN CARDIOEMBOLIC ISCHEMIC STROKE PATIENTS WITH ATRIAL FIBRILLATIONABSTRACTIntroduction: It is important to diagnose cardioembolic ischemic stroke quickly especially in the absence of CT scan/MRI, besides having a poor prognosis, cardioembolic ischemic stroke also has high disability and death rates.Aim: To investigate the diagnostic value of Dave Unhas Stroke Score (DUSS) in cardioembolic ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).Methods: This was a diagnostic test research on cardioembolic ischemic stroke sufferers with AF and without cardioemboli in Wahidin Sudirohusodo Hospital and its networking hospital in Makassar from September 2018 to March 2019. DUSS consists of 5 variables: blood pressure (BP), activity at onset, headache, vomiting, and level of consciousness were assessed in both groups. DUSS cut off point was determined by receiver operating characteristics (ROC). The test results are considered as statistically significant if the p value <0.05.Results: There were 80 subjects consisting of 40 subjects each in the cardioembolic and noncardioembolic ischemic stroke groups. The research results showed diagnostic value of DUSS in cardioembolic ischemic stroke patients due to atrial  fibrillation with cut off point 10 had a sensitivity of 95.0%, specificity 97.5%, positive predictive value 97.4%, negative predictive value 95.1%, and accuracy 96.2%. The results of this calculation shown area under curve (AUC) on the ROC curve that is 99.6% with a very significant p value (p <0.001) which means DUSS can be used to distinguish between cardioembolic ischemic stroke due to AF (score >10) from noncardioembolic ischemic stroke (score <10).Discussion: DUSS 10 cut off point can distinguish cardioembolic ischemic stroke due to AF and noncardioembolic.Keywords:  Dave Unhas  Stroke  Score, cardioembolic ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, noncardioembolic ischemic stroke, diagnostic value, cut-off pointABSTRAKPendahuluan: Mendiagnosis stroke iskemik kardioemboli dengan cepat penting dilakukan terutama pada keadaan tidak tersedianya CT scan/MRI, selain karena memiliki prognosis yang buruk, juga memiliki angka kecacatan dan kematian yang tinggi.Tujuan: Mengetahui nilai diagnostik Skor Stroke Dave Unhas (SSDU) pada penderita stroke iskemik kardioemboli akibat fibrilasi atrium (FA).Metode: Penelitian uji diagnostik terhadap penderita stroke iskemik kardioemboli dengan FA dan nonkardioemboli di RS Wahidin Sudirohusodo dan jejaringnya di Makassar pada bulan September 2018-Maret 2019. Dilakukan penghitungan SSDU berdasarkan 5 variabel: tekanan darah (TD), aktivitas saat serangan, nyeri kepala, muntah, dan tingkat kesadaran pada kedua kelompok serta cut off point SSDU yang optimal menggunakan receiver operating characteristics (ROC). Hasil uji statistik signifikan jika nilai p<0,05.Hasil: Didapatkan 80 subjek yang terdiri dari masing-masing 40 subjek pada kelompok stroke iskemik kardioemboli dan nonkardioemboli. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan nilai diagnostik SSDU pada penderita stroke iskemik kardioemboli akibat FA dengan cut off point 10 memiliki sensitivitas 95,0%, spesifisitas 97,5%, nilai prediksi positif 97,4%, nilai prediksi negatif 95,1%, dan akurasi 96,2%.  Hasil perhitungan ini menunjukkan area under curve (AUC) pada kurva ROC, yaitu 99,6% dengan nilai p yang sangat signifikan (p<0,001) yang berarti SSDU dapat digunakan untuk membedakan antara SIkardioemboli akibat FA (skor >10) dengan stroke iskemik nonkardioemboli (skor <10).Diskusi: Diperoleh cut off point SSDU 10 yang dapat membedakan stroke iskemik kardioemboli akibat FA dan nonkardioemboli.Kata kunci: Fibrilasi atrium, kardioemboli, nonkardioemboli, nilai diagnostik, stroke iskemik, Skor Stroke Dave Unhas  

Frequency Models

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
James B. Elsner ◽  
Thomas H. Jagger
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Matrix

Here in Part II, we focus on statistical models for understanding and predicting hurricane climate. This chapter shows you how to model hurricane occurrence. This is done using the annual count of hurricanes making landfall in the United States. We also consider the occurrence of hurricanes across the basin and by origin. We begin with exploratory analysis and then show you how to model counts with Poisson regression. Issues of model fit, interpretation, and prediction are considered in turn. The topic of how to assess forecast skill is examined including how to perform cross-validation. Alternatives to the Poisson regression model are considered. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristics (ROCS) are also covered. You use the data set US.txt which contains a list of tropical cyclone counts by year (see Chapter 2). The counts indicate the number of hurricanes hitting in the United States (excluding Hawaii). Input the data, save them as a data frame object, and print out the first six lines by typing . . . > H = read.table("US.txt", header=TRUE) > head(H) . . . The columns include year Year, number of U.S. hurricanes All, number of major U.S. hurricanes MUS, number of U.S. Gulf coast hurricanes G, number of Florida hurricanes FL, and number of East coast hurricanes E. Save the total number of years in the record as n and the average number hurricanes per year as rate. . . . > n = length(H$Year); rate = mean(H$All) > n; rate [1] 160 [1] 1.69 . . . The average number of U.S. hurricanes is 1.69 per year over these 160 years. First plot a time series and a distribution of the annual counts. Together, the two plots provide a nice summary of the information in your data relevant to any modeling effort. . . . > par(las=1) > layout(matrix(c(1, 2), 1, 2, byrow=TRUE), + widths=c(3/5, 2/5)) > plot(H$Year, H$All, type="h", xlab="Year", + ylab="Hurricane Count") > grid() > mtext("a", side=3, line=1, adj=0, cex=1.1) > barplot(table(H$All), xlab="Hurricane Count", + ylab="Number of Years", main="") > mtext("b", side=3, line=1, adj=0, cex=1.1) . . . The layout function divides the plot page into rows and columns as specified in the matrix function (first argument).

Associação da troca de luvas e complicações da ferida operatória em cesarianas eletivas de gestações de baixo risco

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas de Almeida Resende ◽  
Débora da Costa Borges ◽  
Brunella Mendonça Chinen ◽  
Luciano Eliziário Borges Júnior ◽  
Edward Araujo Júnior ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Area Under Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Para Determinar ◽  
Receiver Operating

Objetivo: Avaliar se a troca de luvas está associada à redução de complicações da ferida operatória de cesarianas eletivas em gestações de baixo risco. Métodos: Estudo prospectivo e observacional realizado entre julho de 2019 e agosto de 2020, no qual foram selecionadas 169 pacientes submetidas a cesarianas eletivas, divididas em dois grupos: grupo I (n=100), sem troca de luvas, e grupo II (n=94), com luvas trocadas durante a cirurgia. Para a comparação entre as médias, utilizou-se o teste de Mann-Whitney para as variáveis não paramétricas. Para teste de hipóteses e existência de associações entre as variáveis, adotou-se o teste exato de Fisher. Empregou-se regressão logística binária para determinar se o tempo cirúrgico foi previsor para complicações na ferida operatória durante o período puerperal. A curva receiver operating characteristics (ROC) foi utilizada para determinar o melhor valor do tempo cirúrgico para a identificação de complicações na ferida operatória. Resultados: Houve efeito significativo sobre o tempo cirúrgico (grupo I: 72,6 vs. grupo II: 65,1 min, p=0,006). Não houve associação entre troca de luvas e a presença de complicações da ferida operatória. Das pacientes, 22,5% apresentaram pelo menos uma complicação em até 60 dias após a cesariana, não havendo associação entre a troca de luvas e a presença de comorbidades durante o seguimento pré-natal (p>0,999). O tempo cirúrgico >70 min foi capaz de identificar corretamente 59,1% dos casos de complicações da ferida operatória até 60 dias pós-cesariana, com taxa de falso-positivo de 34% (area under curve: 0,627, p=0,0126, intervalo de confiança — IC95% 0,554-0,695). Conclusão: Em pacientes de baixo risco submetidas a cesarianas eletivas, a troca de luvas não reduziu a incidência de complicações da ferida operatória. O tempo cirúrgico foi um previsor independente para a presença de complicações da ferida operatória até 60 dias pós-cesariana.

scholarly journals In silico exploration for aldose reductase (AR) inhibitors

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 956-960
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Docking ◽  
Binding Energy ◽  
Aldose Reductase ◽  
Area Under Curve ◽  
Polyol Pathway ◽  
Pharmacophore Modeling ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Zinc Database ◽  
Pharmacophore Feature

Aldose reductase plays a role in glucose metabolism in the polyol pathway responsible for complications of diabetes mellitus. In this study, pharmacophore modeling and molecular docking were conducted to identify hit compounds as inhibitors of aldose reductase (AR). The pharmacophore feature consists of two hydrogen-bond acceptors, four hydrophobics and one aromatic ring feature with Area Under Curve of Receiver Operating Characteristics (AUC-ROC) is 0.53 and the Goodness of Hit (GH) value is 0.76. Screening in the ZINC database generated 1,225 hit compounds, were subjected to molecular docking to determine their binding energy and interactions with AR. The range of binding energy (E) of all hit compounds is -8.81 to -14.22 kcal/mol and there are four best hit compounds namely Lig_234, Lig_873, Lig_1, and Lig_902, when compared to native ligands (3NA, E= -12.98 kcal/mol) based on their binding energy and orientation, which indicate their potential as new AR inhibitors.

scholarly journals Validierung des Düsseldorfer Screeningtools: ein traitbasierter Ansatz zur Erfassung der psychischen Belastung von Krebspatienten

HNO ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Sisolefsky ◽  
Madiha Rana ◽  
Majeed Rana ◽  
Philipp Y. Herzberg
Keyword(s):  
Area Under Curve ◽  
Psychische Belastung ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Sensitivität Und Spezifität ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Receiver Operating

Zusammenfassung Hintergrund Screening von psychischen Belastungen während einer Krebserkrankung ist notwendig, um gezielt die Patienten herauszufiltern, die psychologische Unterstützung benötigen. Derzeit geschieht dies überwiegend über die Abfrage akuter Probleme. Stabile interne und externe Risikofaktoren und präventiv wirkende Merkmale bleiben weitestgehend unberücksichtigt. Das neu entwickelte Düsseldorfer Screeningtool (DST) erfasst psychische Belastung mithilfe stabiler Traits, unter Berücksichtigung der sozialen Unterstützung und des Krankheitsverarbeitungsstils. Zielsetzung ist eine Validierung des DST anhand des Distress-Thermometers (DT) sowie der Psychoonkologischen Basisdokumentation (PO-Bado). Methodik Untersucht wurden 126 Patienten mit Plattenepithelkarzinomen im Bereich Hals und Kopf. Zur Festlegung des Cut-Off-Wertes wurden ROC Kurven (Receiver-Operating-Characteristics) berechnet. Als Maß für die Güte werden Area under Curve Werte (AUC) angegeben. Sensitivität und Spezifität wurden für den jeweils als Goldstandard genutzten Fragebogen festgelegt. Ergebnisse Die Diskriminationsfähigkeit des DST ist sowohl im Vergleich mit dem DT als auch mit der PO-Bado mit AUC-Werten von 0,62 bis 0,80 als gut zu bewerten. Bei einem Cut-Off-Wert des DT von 5 kann eine Sensitivität von 84,2 % bei gleichzeitiger Spezifität von 37,0 % angegeben werden. Im Vergleich zur PO-Bado kann ein Sensitivitätswert von 92,9 % bei gleichzeitiger Spezifität von 43,6 % angegeben werden. Schlussfolgerung Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass auch ein traitbasierter Ansatz zur Erfassung von psychischer Belastung zielführend und sicher die Belastungssituation von Krebspatienten aufzeigen kann, sodass sich hier ein neuer Ansatz des Screenings in der Psychoonkologie herauskristallisiert hat.

Kriteriumsbezogene Cut-Off-Werte für Tätigkeitsspielraum und Arbeitsintensität

Diagnostica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 179-190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Mustapha ◽  
Renate Rau
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Receiver Operating

Zusammenfassung. Cut-Off-Werte ermöglichen eine ökonomische, binäre Beurteilung von Summenscores. Für Beanspruchungsfragebögen, die personenbezogene Merkmale erfragen, sind Cut-Off-Werte häufig vorhanden und in der klinischen Diagnostik unerlässlich. Für die Bewertung von Arbeitsmerkmalen sind Cut-Off-Werte ebenfalls wünschenswert. Bislang fehlen sie jedoch für die Beurteilung von Arbeitsmerkmalen wie Arbeitsintensität und Tätigkeitsspielraum. Zwischen 2006 und 2016 wurden daher in verschiedenen Branchen 801 objektive Arbeitsplatzanalysen durchgeführt, welche eine Unterteilung in gut und schlecht gestalteten Tätigkeitsspielraum sowie gut und schlecht gestaltete Arbeitsintensität nach DIN EN ISO 6385 (2016) ermöglichen. Anhand dieser Unterteilung wurden mit der Receiver-Operating-Characteristics-Analyse Cut-Off-Werte für den subjektiv-bedingungsbezogen Fragebogen zum Erleben von Arbeitsintensität und Tätigkeitsspielraum (FIT; Richter et al., 2000 ) ermittelt. Für den Tätigkeitsspielraum weisen Summenscores ≤ 22 und für die Arbeitsintensität Summenscores ≥ 15 auf eine schlechte Gestaltung des jeweiligen Arbeitsmerkmals hin. Anhand einer weiteren Stichprobe von 1 076 Arbeitenden konnte gezeigt werden, dass Arbeitende mit schlecht gestaltetem Tätigkeitspielraum vital erschöpfter sowie weniger engagiert sind und Arbeitende mit schlecht gestalteter Arbeitsintensität eine höhere Erholungsunfähigkeit sowie vitale Erschöpfung aufweisen.

Comparison of Rheumatological Diagnoses by a Bayesian Program and by Physicians

1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (03) ◽  
pp. 187-193 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. J. Moens ◽  
J. K. van der Korst
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristics ◽  
Bayesian Decision ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Likelihood Ratios ◽  
Improve Performance ◽  
Mathematical Basis ◽  
Human Expert ◽  
Test Population ◽  
Sensitivity Specificity ◽  
Diagnostic Outcome

AbstractA Bayesian decision support system was developed for the diagnosis of rheumatic disorders. Knowledge in this system is represented as evidential weights of findings. Simple weights were calculated as the logarithm of likelihood ratios on the basis of 1,000 consecutive patients from a rheumatological clinic. The effect of various methods to improve performance of the system by modification of the weights was studied. Three methods had a mathematical basis; a fourth consisted of weights adapted by a human expert, which allowed inclusion of diagnostic rules such as defined in widely accepted criteria sets. The system’s performance was measured in a test population of 570 different cases from the same clinic and compared with predictions of diagnostic outcome made by rheumatologists. The weights from a human expert gave optimal results (sensitivity 65% and specificity 96%), that were close to the physicians’ predictions (sensitivity 64% and specificity 98%). The methods to measure the performance of the various models used in this study emphasize sensitivity, specificity and the use of receiver operating characteristics.

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