scholarly journals Compatibility of Drought Magnitude Based Method With Spa for Assessing Reservoir Volumes: Analysis Using Canadian River Flows

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tribeni C. Sharma ◽  
Umed Panu
Keyword(s):  
Level Set ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Analytical Procedure ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Reservoir Volume ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Analytical Procedures ◽  
Annual Scale

The traditional sequent peak algorithm (SPA) was used to assess the reservoir volume (VR) for comparison with deficit volume, DT, (subscript T representing the return period) obtained from the drought magnitude (DM) based method with draft level set at the mean annual flow on 15 rivers across Canada. At an annual scale, the SPA based estimates were found to be larger with an average of nearly 70% compared to DM based estimates. To ramp up DM based estimates to be in parity with SPA based values, the analysis was carried out through the counting and the analytical procedures involving only the annual SHI (standardized hydrological index, i.e. standardized values of annual flows) sequences. It was found that MA2 or MA3 (moving average of 2 or 3 consecutive values) of SHI sequences were required to match the counted values of DT to VR. Further, the inclusion of mean, as well as the variance of the drought intensity in the analytical procedure, with aforesaid smoothing led DT comparable to VR. The distinctive point in the DM based method is that no assumption is necessary such as the reservoir being full at the beginning of the analysis - as is the case with SPA.

scholarly journals Reservoir Sizing at Draft Level of 75% of Mean Annual Flow Using Drought Magnitude Based Method on Canadian Rivers

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Tribeni C. Sharma ◽  
Umed S. Panu
Keyword(s):  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Flow Data ◽  
Truncation Level ◽  
Drought Intensity ◽  
Error Margin ◽  
Reservoir Volume ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Reservoir Sizing

On a global basis, there is trend that a majority of reservoirs are sized using a draft of 75% of the mean annual flow (0.75 MAF). The reservoir volumes based on the proposed drought magnitude (DM) method and the sequent peak algorithm (SPA) at 0.75 MAF draft were compared at the annual, monthly and weekly scales using the flow sequences of 25 Canadian rivers. In our assessment, the monthly scale is adequate for such analyses. The DM method, although capable of using flow data at any time scale, has been demonstrated using monthly standardized hydrological index (SHI) sequences. The moving average (MA) smoothing of the monthly SHI sequences formed the basis in the DM method for estimating the reservoir volume through the use of the extreme number theorem, and the hypothesis that drought magnitude is equal to the product of the drought intensity and drought length. The truncation level in the SHI sequences was found as SHIo [ = (0.75 ‒ 1) µo/σo], where µo and σo are the overall mean and standard deviation of the monthly flows. The DM-based estimates for the deficit volumes and the SPA-based reservoir volumes were found comparable within an error margin of ±18%.

Numerical Jet Atomization: Part II — Modeling Information and Comparison With DNS Results

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. A. Beau ◽  
T. Me´nard ◽  
R. Lebas ◽  
A. Berlemont ◽  
S. Tanguy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Level Set ◽  
Volume Fraction ◽  
Computing Time ◽  
Mass Conservation ◽  
Liquid Volume ◽  
Liquid Density ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Break Up ◽  
Primary Break

The main objective of our work is to develop direct numerical simulation tools for the primary break up of a jet. Results can help to determine closure relation in the ELSA model [1] which is based on a single-phase Eulerian model and on the transport equation for the mean liquid/gas interface density in turbulent flows. DNS simulations are carried out to obtain statistical information in the dense zone of the spray where nearly no experimental data are available. The numerical method should describe the interface motion precisely, handle jump conditions at the interface without artificial smoothing, and respect mass conservation. We develop a 3D code [2], where interface tracking is ensured by Level Set method, Ghost Fluid Method [3] is used to capture accurately sharp discontinuities, and coupling between Level Set and VOF methods is used for mass conservation [4]. Turbulent inflow boundary conditions are generated through correlated random velocities with a prescribed length scale. Specific care has been devoted to improve computing time with MPI parallelization. The numerical methods have been applied to investigate physical processes that are involved in the primary break up of an atomizing jet. The chosen configuration is close as possible of Diesel injection (Diameter D = 0.1 mm, Velocity = 100m/s, Liquid density = 696kg/m3, Gas density = 25kg/m3). Typical results will be presented. From the injector nozzle, the turbulence initiates some perturbations on the liquid surface, that are enhanced by the mean shear between the liquid jet and the surrounding air. The interface becomes very wrinkled and some break-up is initiated. The induced liquid parcels show a wide range of shapes. Statistics are carried out and results will be provided for liquid volume fraction, liquid/gas interface density, and turbulent correlations.

Prediksi Kedatangan Turis Menggunakan Algoritma Weighted Exponential Moving Average

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 129-132
Author(s):  
Sherly Florencia ◽  
Alethea Suryadibrata
Keyword(s):  
Moving Average ◽  
Mean Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Error Measurement ◽  
Absolute Percentage Error ◽  
Natural Beauty ◽  
Expenditure Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Tourism Expenditure ◽  
Using Data

Tourism is an important factor for the development of a country. Tourism can be used as a promotion to introduce natural beauty and cultural uniqueness. Government needs to predict how many tourists will come every year to do a planning. Therefore, an application is needed to help to predict the arrival of tourists in each country. In this paper, we use Weighted Exponential Moving Average (WEMA) method to predict the arrival of tourist, tourism expenditure in the country, and departure using data from 2008 to 2018. Error measurement is calculated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The result shows that the lowest average MAPE on arrival data with span 2 is at 3.28. The lowest average MAPE on tourism expenditure data with span 2 is at 3.99%. The result shows that the lowest average MAPE on departure data with span 2 is at 3.63%.

Two Decades of Behavioral Research on Analytical Procedures: What Have We Learned?

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
William F. Messier ◽  
Chad A. Simon ◽  
Jason L. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Procedure ◽  
Behavioral Research ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Comprehensive Review ◽  
External Auditors ◽  
The Past ◽  
Considerable Research ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Analytical Procedures ◽  
Corroborative Evidence

SUMMARY This paper presents a comprehensive review of behavioral research on external auditors' use of analytical procedures published over the past two decades. We frame our review around four phases of the analytical procedures process: develop an expectation, establish a tolerable difference, compare the expectation to the recorded amount and investigate significant differences, and evaluate explanations and corroborative evidence. We find that while considerable research has focused on auditors' performance of the latter phases of the analytical procedures process (i.e., investigate significant differences and evaluate explanations and evidence), relatively less research has focused on the initial phases of the process (i.e., setting expectations and establishing thresholds). We also find that prior research has primarily focused on the preliminary and substantive analytical procedure settings with little research examining auditors' judgments and decisions when using analytical procedures at the overall review stage of the audit engagement. Finally, we summarize the significant findings from research in each phase and provide a number of research questions whose answers could improve our understanding and the performance of analytical procedures. Data Availability: All articles are publicly available.

scholarly journals Parameter Estimation Effect of the Homogeneously Weighted Moving Average Chart to Monitor the Mean of Autocorrelated Observations With Measurement Errors

IEEE Access ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 221352-221366
Author(s):  
Maonatlala Thanwane ◽  
Sandile Charles Shongwe ◽  
Jean-Claude Malela-Majika ◽  
Muhammad Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autocorrelated Observations ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Weighted Moving Average

Wool prices and sheep breeding objectives - a historical perspective

1994 ◽  
Vol 45 (8) ◽  
pp. 1671 ◽  
Author(s):  
DJ Cottle
Keyword(s):  
Important Determinant ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Fibre Diameter ◽  
Percentage Increase ◽  
Sire Evaluation ◽  
Selection Indices ◽  
Breeding Objectives ◽  
Fibre Fineness ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Fleece Weight

An analysis of weekly wool prices for different fibre diameter market indicators from 1950 to 1993 was conducted to determine appropriate economic values for the calculation of sheep selection indices. An important determinant of breeding objectives and selection indices is the percentage increase in the value of wool for each 1 8m reduction in fibre diameter, termed index percentage (IP). From 1950 to 1981 the appropriate IP value for fine (20 8m), medium (21 8m) and strong (23 8m) wool Merinos was 5%. From 1981 to 1993 the mean weekly IP values for fine, medium and strong wool Merinos were about 20, 15 and 8% respectively. The 5 year moving average IP values in 1993 for fine, medium and strong wool Merinos were 25, 20 and 8% respectively. The distributions of weekly wool prices and IP values are not normal and are positively skewed. Therefore, a safer, more conservative approach is to calculate the median weekly IP values for any period or to use median weekly wool prices to calculate IP values. The median weekly IP values for 1981-1993 were 20, 11 and 8% for fine, medium and strong Merino wools respectively. Thus recently there has been a larger relative premium for fibre fineness which could be a permanent trend. Selection efficiencies for clean fleece weight and fibre diameter in fine and strong wool Merinos are predicted to be at least 90% when 10% and 5% indices are used respectively. Selection efficiency in medium wool Merinos when a 5% index is used is only 79% if the 'true' IP is 15%, or 90% if the 'true' IP is 10%. The 10% and 5% indices are currently calculated and made available to the ram owners who participate respectively in the N.S.W. Merino fine and medium wool sire evaluation schemes. It is suggested that there is a case for using indices with higher fibre diameter premiums (i.e. 20% and 10% respectively), than those currently provided in the fine and medium wool schemes.

Occurrence of ergot and its alkaloids in winter rye harvested in Poland

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 635-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bryła ◽  
E. Ksieniewicz-Woźniak ◽  
G. Podolska ◽  
A. Waśkiewicz ◽  
K. Szymczyk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
European Commission ◽  
Level Set ◽  
Fungal Pathogen ◽  
Ergot Alkaloids ◽  
Winter Rye ◽  
Claviceps Purpurea ◽  
Maximum Permissible Level ◽  
Cereal Species ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Mean Concentration

Ergot (Claviceps purpurea) is a fungal pathogen that infects various grass and small grain cereal species, most often open-pollinated grasses, including rye and triticale. We tested 122 samples of rye grains harvested in three different regions of Poland in 2016 and 2017 for ergot and its alkaloids. Ergot sclerotia were found in all samples. The mean content of ergot sclerotia in grain ranged between 0.74 and 1.06 g/kg, and the mean concentration of ergot alkaloids in grain ranged between 270.1 and 580. 4 μg/kg, depending on the region of cultivation. 37% of the samples were infected with ergot below the 0.5 g/kg level set by the European Commission as the maximum permissible level for ergot, and in those samples the mean ergot alkaloids concentration was 155.8 μg/kg (range 4.7-667.9 μg/kg). A statistically significant correlation (R2=0.6941) between ergot content and concentration of ergot alkaloids was found. Ergot alkaloids concentration in grain was re-calculated into ergot alkaloids concentration in sclerotia, and was found to vary widely from 114 to 3,167 mg/kg. Ergot alkaloids profiles were most frequently dominated by R-configured ergopeptides, such as ergocryptine, ergocornine and ergocristine (31, 29 and 16% of the samples, respectively).

scholarly journals Coordination Scheduling of Wind-Hydropower Generation and Profit Allocation Based on Shapley Value Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Yi Quan ◽  
Min Jiang ◽  
Hongjun Sun ◽  
Xiaohui Yuan ◽  
Li He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Shapley Value ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Water Inflow ◽  
Spinning Reserve ◽  
Reservoir Volume ◽  
Two Parameters

The volatility of wind makes the forecasting of wind speed unreliable. The inaccurate forecast in wind speed always leads to generation imbalance and causes Wind Generating Companies’ (WGenCOs) losses in the intrahour market. In contrast to wind power, Hydrogenerating Companies (HGenCOs) can utilize the reservoir volume to settle the fluctuation of water inflow easily. When treated as a specialized Spinning Reserve (SR) unit for wind power, hydropower can help to settle the generation imbalance and obtain more profit in the power market for both power plants. In this paper, the author establishes a coordination scheduling model of wind-hydro alliance which covers the day-ahead market and the intrahour market. First, to evaluate the deviation of the wind-hydro generation in the intrahour market, an imbalance charge rule considering each period of schedule horizon is constructed. Second, the author introduces two parameters to control the resources that hydropower can use to coordinate with wind power. Finally, the author introduces the Shapley value method to allocate the profit of the alliance which comprises several independent entities fairly. For the simulation of uncertainties, the scenario-based approach is used to simulate the water inflow of a reservoir considering the Monte Carlo (MC) method. The wind speed for the intrahour market is forecasted with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Simulations are implemented, and the results show that when treated as an SR unit for wind power, hydropower can diminish the imbalance charges significantly and will improve the revenue of the wind-hydro alliance. Furthermore, the coordination operation also helps reduce the spillage of the reservoir and the curtailment of the wind power to achieve better utilization of renewable energy.

scholarly journals Metals distribution on the surface of quartz fiber filters used for particulate matter collection

2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 3-10
Author(s):  
Kamila Widziewicz ◽  
Krzysztof Loska ◽  
Wioletta Rogula-Kozłowska
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Analytical Procedure ◽  
Microwave Oven ◽  
Electrothermal Atomization ◽  
Quartz Fiber ◽  
Sampling Schemes ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Low Volume ◽  
Gf Aas ◽  
Mean Concentration

Abstract Presented study aimed to determine metals distribution on the quartz fiber filters surface coated with particulate matter by using high and low-volume samplers. The distribution pattern was tested using two different sub-sampling schemes. Each sub-sample was mineralized in the nitric acid in a microwave oven. An analysis was performed by means of atomic absorption spectroscopy with electrothermal atomization GF-AAS technique, and the determined elements were: As, Cd, Pb and Ni. A validation of the analytical procedure was carried out using NIES 28 Urban Aerosols standard reference material. It was assumed that metal is distributed uniformly if its normalized concentrations on a single sub-sample is within ±15% of the mean concentration over the whole filter. The normalized concentrations values exceed this range, indicating a non-homogenous metals distribution. There were no statistically significant differences in metals concentrations between particular sub-samples in the function of its position along the filters diameter.

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