scholarly journals Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Complexes that Triggered Heavy Rainfall Related to Severe Flash Flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia

Author(s):  
Erma Yulihastin ◽  
Danang Eko Nuryanto ◽  
- Trismidianto ◽  
Robi Muharsyah

A severe flash flood hit Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia, on 13 July 2020. This flood was preceded by persistent heavy rainfall from 11 to 13 July 2020. In this study, we explore both the physical and dynamical processes that caused the heavy rainfall using a convection-permitting model with 1-km resolution. The heavy rainfall was modulated by the development of a pair of Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) during the night. The pair of MCCs was triggered by an anti-cyclonic vorticity anomaly over the Makassar Strait and was maintained by the warm front passing between the sea and land over central Sulawesi. This front was characterized by moist-warm and cold-dry low-level air, which may have helped to extend the lifetime of the MCCs. The northwestward propagation of the MCCs was due to the interaction between predominantly southeasterly monsoon and sea surface temperature anomalies.

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1445
Author(s):  
Erma Yulihastin ◽  
Danang Eko Nuryanto ◽  
Trismidianto ◽  
Robi Muharsyah

Flash flooding is an important issue as it has a devastating impact over a short time and in a limited area. However, predicting flash floods is challenging because they are connected to convection systems that rapidly evolve and require a high-resolution forecasting system. In addition, modeling a case study of a mesoscale convective complex (MCC) is the key to improving our understanding of the heavy rainfall systems that trigger flash floods. In this study, we aim at improving modeling skills to simulate a heavy rainfall system related to flash-flood-producing MCCs. We simulated a heavy rainfall event related to a severe flash flood in Luwu, Sulawesi, Indonesia, on 13 July 2020. This flood was preceded by persistent heavy rainfall from 11 to 13 July 2020. In this case, we investigated the role of sea surface temperature (SST) in producing the persistent heavy rainfall over the region. Therefore, we explore the physical and dynamic processes that caused the heavy rainfall using a convection-permitting model with 1 km resolution and an experiment comparing the situation with and without updated SST. The results show that the heavy rainfall was modulated by the development of a pair of MCCs during the night. The pair of MCCs was triggered by a meso-low-pressure system with an anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Makassar Strait and was maintained by the warm front passing between the sea and land over central Sulawesi. This front was characterized by moist–warm and cold–dry low-level air, which may have helped extend the lifetime of the MCCs. The north-westward propagation of the MCCs was due to the interaction between predominantly a south-easterly monsoon and SST anomalies. This study suggested that the long-lived (>10 h) MCCs (>80,000 km2 cloud shield) and persistent precipitation are reproduced well in the updated SST scenario in the WRF model. This relatively simple technique in the running model provides a new strategy for improving flash flood forecasting by better predicting rainfall as an input in the hydrological model. Our findings also indicated a long-lived MCC maintained by back-building mechanisms from night to morning inland as an exceptional MCC, which does not correspond to a previous study.


2021 ◽  
pp. 102098
Author(s):  
F. Neptalí Morales-Serna ◽  
Lorenia Olivas-Padilla ◽  
Emigdio Marín-Enriquez ◽  
Juan M. Osuna-Cabanillas ◽  
Hugo Aguirre-Villaseñor ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 500
Author(s):  
Lianwei Li ◽  
Yangfeng Xu ◽  
Cunjin Xue ◽  
Yuxuan Fu ◽  
Yuanyu Zhang

It is important to consider where, when, and how the evolution of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) plays significant roles in regional or global climate changes. In the comparison of where and when, there is a great challenge in clearly describing how SSTA evolves in space and time. In light of the evolution from generation, through development, and to the dissipation of SSTA, this paper proposes a novel approach to identifying an evolution of SSTA in space and time from a time-series of a raster dataset. This method, called PoAIES, includes three key steps. Firstly, a cluster-based method is enhanced to explore spatiotemporal clusters of SSTA, and each cluster of SSTA at a time snapshot is taken as a snapshot object of SSTA. Secondly, the spatiotemporal topologies of snapshot objects of SSTA at successive time snapshots are used to link snapshot objects of SSTA into an evolution object of SSTA, which is called a process object. Here, a linking threshold is automatically determined according to the overlapped areas of the snapshot objects, and only those snapshot objects that meet the specified linking threshold are linked together into a process object. Thirdly, we use a graph-based model to represent a process object of SSTA. A node represents a snapshot object of SSTA, and an edge represents an evolution between two snapshot objects. Using a number of child nodes from an edge’s parent node and a number of parent nodes from the edge’s child node, a type of edge (an evolution relationship) is identified, which shows its development, splitting, merging, or splitting/merging. Finally, an experiment on a simulated dataset is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and the advantages of PoAIES, and a real dataset of satellite-SSTA is used to verify the rationality of PoAIES with the help of ENSO’s relevant knowledge, which may provide new references for global change research.


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