scholarly journals Machine-Learning to Discern Interactive Clusters of Risk Factors for Late Recurrence of Metastatic Breast Cancer

Author(s):  
Juan Luis Gomez Marti ◽  
Adam Brufsky ◽  
Alan Wells ◽  
Xia Jiang

Background: Risk of metastatic recurrence of breast cancer after initial diagnosis and treatment depends on the presence of a number of risk factors. Although most univariate risk factors have been identified using classical methods, machine-learning methods are also being conducted to tease out non-obvious contributors to a patient’s individual risk of developing late distant metastasis. Bayesian-network algorithms may predict not only risk factors but also interactions among these risks, which consequently lead to metastatic breast cancer. We proposed to apply a previously developed machine-learning method to predict risk factors of 5-, 10- and 15-year metastasis. Methods: We applied a previously validated algorithm named the Markov Blanket and Interactive risk factor Learner (MBIL) on the electronic health record (EHR)-based Lynn Sage database (LSDB) from the Lynn Sage Comprehensive Breast Cancer at Northwestern Memorial Hospital. This algorithm provided an output of both single and interactive risk factors of 5-, 10-, and 15-year metastasis from LSDB. We individually examined and interpreted the clinical relevance of these interactions based on years to metastasis and the reliance on interactivity between risk factors. Results: We found that with lower alpha values (low interactivity score), the prevalence of variables with an independent influence on long term metastasis was higher (i.e., HER2, TNEG). As the value of alpha increased to 480, stronger interactions were needed to define clusters of factors that increased the risk of metastasis (i.e., ER, smoking, race, alcohol usage). Conclusion: MBIL identified single and interacting risk factors of metastatic breast cancer, many of which were supported by clinical evidence. These results strongly recommend the development of further large data studies with different databases to validate the degree to which some of these variables impact metastatic breast cancer in the long term.

Cancers ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 253
Author(s):  
Juan Luis Gomez Marti ◽  
Adam Brufsky ◽  
Alan Wells ◽  
Xia Jiang

Background: Risk of metastatic recurrence of breast cancer after initial diagnosis and treatment depends on the presence of a number of risk factors. Although most univariate risk factors have been identified using classical methods, machine-learning methods are also being used to tease out non-obvious contributors to a patient’s individual risk of developing late distant metastasis. Bayesian-network algorithms can identify not only risk factors but also interactions among these risks, which consequently may increase the risk of developing metastatic breast cancer. We proposed to apply a previously developed machine-learning method to discern risk factors of 5-, 10- and 15-year metastases. Methods: We applied a previously validated algorithm named the Markov Blanket and Interactive Risk Factor Learner (MBIL) to the electronic health record (EHR)-based Lynn Sage Database (LSDB) from the Lynn Sage Comprehensive Breast Center at Northwestern Memorial Hospital. This algorithm provided an output of both single and interactive risk factors of 5-, 10-, and 15-year metastases from the LSDB. We individually examined and interpreted the clinical relevance of these interactions based on years to metastasis and reliance on interactivity between risk factors. Results: We found that, with lower alpha values (low interactivity score), the prevalence of variables with an independent influence on long-term metastasis was higher (i.e., HER2, TNEG). As the value of alpha increased to 480, stronger interactions were needed to define clusters of factors that increased the risk of metastasis (i.e., ER, smoking, race, alcohol usage). Conclusion: MBIL identified single and interacting risk factors of metastatic breast cancer, many of which were supported by clinical evidence. These results strongly recommend the development of further large data studies with different databases to validate the degree to which some of these variables impact metastatic breast cancer in the long term.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4063-4063
Author(s):  
Nathan Watson ◽  
Seth A Wander ◽  
Hanny Al-Samkari

Abstract Introduction: Over the past several years, inhibitors of cyclin-dependent kinases 4 and 6 (CDK 4/6) have revolutionized the treatment of hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer. However, evidence suggests an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) with use of these agents. Recent studies additionally suggest higher VTE rates in real-world populations receiving palbociclib as compared with the highly selected population of published clinical trials. Such study in real-world patients has not been performed for abemaciclib, a newer CDK 4/6 inhibitor with unique pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties. This study evaluated rates and predictors of thrombosis in patients receiving abemaciclib for metastatic breast cancer. Methods: We conducted a multicenter observational cohort study of patients with metastatic breast cancer receiving abemaciclib at 5 affiliated hospitals. A research patient data repository was queried to identify all patients receiving abemaciclib and manual chart review was used to extract all data. Patient demographics, concurrent medications, labs, Khorana risk score, tumor characteristics, and relevant venous and arterial thrombotic risk factors (including age, BMI, prior thrombosis, recent surgery, hereditary thrombophilia, systemic inflammatory diseases, presence of brain metastases, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and atherosclerosis) were collected for all patients. The primary endpoint was thrombosis during abemaciclib treatment or within 30 days of discontinuation. Multivariable logistic models assessed predictors of VTE and a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare mortality in patients developing VTE with those who did not. Data are presented as median (IQR) or number (%). Results: Patient Cohort and Thrombosis Risk Factors. 364 patients were included in the analysis. 360 (98.9%) patients were female, with median (interquartile range) age of 61 (53-71) years. 320 (88.7%) were post-menopausal and 291 (79.9%) were concurrently on endocrine therapy (of which 19 (5.2%) were on tamoxifen). At the time of abemaciclib initiation, 51 (14.0%) were receiving long-term anticoagulation and 47 (12.9%) were receiving aspirin. Khorana scores were between 0-3 with 339 (93.1%) patients having a score of 0 or 1. 267 (73.4%) and 46 (12.6%) were diagnosed with invasive ductal and lobular carcinoma, respectfully. Brain metastases were present in 71 (19.5%) patients. Venous and arterial thrombosis risk factors for this cohort are highlighted in TABLE 1. The median duration of abemaciclib therapy was 5.5 (2.8-13.0) months and median duration of follow-up was 12.7 (6.2-22.1) months. Thrombotic Events. 27 patients (7.4%) developed one or more thrombotic event (17 VTE, 9 arterial thrombosis, 1 both). Events are described in TABLE 2. Risk Factors for VTE. In a multivariable logistic model including age, race, BMI, receipt of long-term anticoagulation, receipt of aspirin, brain metastases, Khorana risk score, receipt of tamoxifen, prior VTE, systemic autoimmune disease, and known thrombophilia, HER2 positivity was predictive of VTE during or after abemaciclib treatment (odds ratio 5.20, 95% CI 1.29-20.93, P=0.020). Association of VTE with Mortality. In a multivariable Cox model controlling for age, race, HER2 status, receipt of long-term anticoagulation, receipt of aspirin, brain metastases, Khorana risk score, receipt of tamoxifen, prior VTE, systemic autoimmune disease, and known thrombophilia, patients developing VTE during abemaciclib therapy had a significantly higher risk of death (hazard ratio, 2.04, 95% CI, 1.03-4.01, P=0.040), FIGURE 1. Median survival in patients developing a VTE vs. those who did not was 9.6 months vs. 25.8 months, respectively. Conclusions: In this study, we provide the first real-world data describing risk of venous and arterial thrombosis in a large cohort of patients with metastatic breast cancer treated with the CDK 4/6 inhibitor abemaciclib. As the role of abemaciclib continues to expand both within and beyond the metastatic disease setting, understanding the VTE risk of this agent has become critical. Thrombosis occurred in 7.4%, and in multivariable models controlling for relevant covariates, HER2 positivity predicted for development of VTE, and patients developing VTE had an approximate 2-fold risk of mortality. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures Al-Samkari: Moderna: Consultancy; Amgen: Research Funding; Novartis: Consultancy; Rigel: Consultancy; Argenx: Consultancy; Dova/Sobi: Consultancy, Research Funding; Agios: Consultancy, Research Funding.


2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 318-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Pistilli ◽  
Andrea Marcellusi ◽  
Luciano Latini ◽  
Roberto Accardi ◽  
Benedetta Ferretti ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 16-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael H. Antoni ◽  
Jamie M. Jacobs ◽  
Laura C. Bouchard ◽  
Suzanne C. Lechner ◽  
Devika R. Jutagir ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Young Hoon Noh ◽  
Yun Gyoung Kim ◽  
Ji Hyun Kim ◽  
Hyang Suk Choi ◽  
Seok Joon Lee ◽  
...  

2011 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1571-1581 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Heitz ◽  
J. Rochon ◽  
P. Harter ◽  
H.-J. Lueck ◽  
A. Fisseler-Eckhoff ◽  
...  

1996 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2197-2205 ◽  
Author(s):  
P A Greenberg ◽  
G N Hortobagyi ◽  
T L Smith ◽  
L D Ziegler ◽  
D K Frye ◽  
...  

PURPOSE To determine the long-term clinical course of patients with metastatic breast cancer (MBC) who achieved a complete remission with doxorubicin-alkylating agent-containing combination chemotherapy programs. PATIENTS AND METHODS To assess the long-term prognosis of MBC, we reviewed our experience with 1,581 patients treated on consecutive doxorubicin and alkylating agent-containing front-line treatment protocols between 1973 and 1982. Treatment was administered for a maximum duration of 2 years. Characteristics of long-term survivors were evaluated, and hazard rates for progression were calculated. RESULTS From this group, 263 (16.6%) achieved complete responses (CR) and 49 (3.1%) remained in CR for more than 5 years. After a median duration of 191 months, 26 patients remain in first CR, four patients died in CR at times ranging from 118 to 234 months, 18 patients died of breast cancer, and one is alive with metastatic disease. Compared with the overall CR and total patient populations, the long-term CR group had more premenopausal patients, a younger median age, a lower tumor burden, and better performance status. The hazard function shows a substantial drop in risk of progression after approximately 3 years from initiation of therapy. Ten long-term CR patients developed second primary cancers: breast (3), ovary (2), pancreas (1), endometrium (1), colon (1), head and neck (1), and lung (1). CONCLUSION Most patients with MBC treated with systemic therapies have only temporary responses to treatment, but some patients continue in CR following initial treatment. These data show that a small percentage of patients achieve long-term remissions with standard chemotherapy regimens. Remission consolidation strategies are needed.


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