scholarly journals Indirect Economic Loss Estimation due to Seismic Highway Transportation System Disruption in “5.12” Wenchuan Earthquake

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 1018-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Shi ◽  
◽  
Shaoyu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Computable General Equilibrium ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Highway Transportation ◽  
5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss

This paper aims to model the indirect economic loss due to damaged highway transportation systems in earthquake-affected areas that tends to be overlooked by decision-makers compared to direct economic loss that can be measured by repair or replacement cost. A regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is applied for estimating indirect economic loss in the whole economic system of the affected area. Shifang is a county-level city located in northwest Chengdu city, which is the capital of Sichuan Province, China. In the “5.12” Wenchuan earthquake, Shifang was one of the ten hardest-hit counties or cities and its highway transportation system was seriously damaged. It was selected as a case study to evaluate the indirect economic loss by seismic highway transportation system disruption. Results show that indirect economic loss accounted for nearly 36.4% of direct economic loss, which is as significant as direct economic loss resulting from earthquakedamaged highway transportation systems, and thus should be paid enough attention by decision-makers in pre-earthquake prevention and postearthquake recovery and reconstruction.

scholarly journals Assessment of the ripple effects and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophic shock

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Wei Xie ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
Jieling Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Ripple Effects ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss ◽  
Development Levels

Abstract. The total losses caused by natural disasters have spatial heterogeneity due to the different economic development levels inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper uses scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' losses caused by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (2008 WCE) in Beijing, utilizing the Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model and the Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of the smallest administrative divisions of China (streets, villages, and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is the Chaoyang District; the finance and insurance industry (15, see Table 1) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in the Chaoyang District, which is 1.46 times that of its direct economic loss. During 2008–2014, the average annual GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate of Beijing was decreased 3.63 % by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently mitigated by increasing rescue effort and by supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

scholarly journals Assessment of ripple effect and spatial heterogeneity of total losses in the capital of China after a great catastrophe shocks

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Wei Xie ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
Jieling Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Heterogeneity ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
2008 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss

Abstract. The total losses caused by natural disaster have spatial heterogeneity due to different economic development level inside the disaster-hit areas. This paper set the scenarios of direct economic loss to introduce the sectors' loss caused by 2008 Wenchuan earthquake into Beijing, utilized Adaptive Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model and Inter-regional ripple effect (IRRE) model. The purpose is to assess the ripple effects of indirect economic loss and spatial heterogeneity of both direct and indirect economic loss at the scale of smallest administrative divisions of China: streets/(villages and towns). The results indicate that the district of Beijing with the most severe indirect economic loss is Chaoyang district; Finance & Insurance industry (#15) of Chaowai Street suffers the most in Chaoyang district, which is 1.46 times of its direct economic loss. During 2008–2014, the average annual GDP growth rate of Beijing could be decreased 3.63 % affected by the catastrophe. Compared with the 8 % of GDP growth rate target, the decreasing GDP growth rate is a significant and noticeable economic impact, and it can be efficiently reduced by increasing rescue effort and priority supporting the industries which are located in the seriously damaged regions.

Research on Evaluation Models and Empirical Analysis of Earthquake Disaster Losses in China

2012 ◽  
Vol 67 (10-11) ◽  
pp. 534-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kepei Men ◽  
Lei Cui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Effect ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Research On Evaluation ◽  
Earthquake Losses ◽  
Grey Clustering ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss

Earthquake disasters occurred very frequently in China. As a result, to evaluate the losses has important social value and economic effect. This paper focuses on the assessment of economic losses of earthquake disasters which is divided into two parts: direct economic loss and indirect economic loss. First, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test is used to determine the distribution of the earthquake losses per year in China, fitting the frequency of earthquake that happened per month in China. Second, the grey clustering method and principal component analysis (PCA) are applied, respectively, for direct economic loss rating and indirect economic loss rating. Finally, the economic loss generated by the earthquakes which happened from 2006 to 2009 in China is evaluated, and eight earthquakes are rated based on the comprehensive economic loss.

scholarly journals Seismic Indirect Economic Loss Assessment and Recovery Evaluation Using Night-time Light Images – Application for Wenchuan Earthquake

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfei Wang ◽  
Jingfa Zhang ◽  
Lixia Gong ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Dan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Light Attenuation ◽  
National Level ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Night Time ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Disaster Area ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss

Abstract. Seismic indirect economic loss not only has a major impact on regional economic recovery policies, but also related to the economic assistance at the national level. Due to the Cross-regional economic activities and the difficulty of obtaining data, it's difficult that the indirect economic loss survey covers all economic activities. However, night-time light in an area can reflect the economic activity of the region. This paper focuses on the indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008 and evaluated the progress of restoration and reconstruction based on night-time light Images. First, the functional relationship between GDP and night-time light parameters was established based on the pre-earthquake data. Next, the indirect loss of the earthquake was evaluated by the night-time light attenuation in the disaster area after the earthquake. Then, the capacity recovery, which is characterized by the brightness recovery process of the light area, was evaluated. Lastly, the process of light expansion in the disaster area was analyzed to evaluate the economic expansion speed and efficiency.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Economic Loss of 2018/2019 African Swine Fever outbreaks in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shibing You ◽  
Tingyi Liu ◽  
Miao Zhang ◽  
Xue Zhao ◽  
Bi Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation System ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Swine Industry ◽  
Indicator Method ◽  
Economic Shock ◽  
Direct Economic Loss ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss ◽  
The Cost

Abstract This study evaluates the total economic loss due to the outbreaks of African Swine Fever (ASF) in China between August 2018 and July 2019. We propose a systematic framework to assess both the direct economic loss on the Chinses breeding industry and indirect economic loss on other sectors. Our evaluation system integrates various statistical analysis methods by applying the cost-loss model and substitution indicator method to calculate direct economic losses and using input-output (IO) model to estimate indirect economic losses. The proposed method provides an innovative and commonly applicable way to deal with the missing data that needs to be adjusted and repaired to be used for economic shock evaluation. We find that total economic loss caused by ASF is 224.768 billion yuan consisting of 99.042 billion yuan direct economic loss of the breeding industry and 125.726 billion yuan indirect economic loss of other industries. Our findings suggest that the overall impact of ASF on China's national economy is relatively small, mainly local and short-term impacts on the swine industry.

scholarly journals Evaluation of indirect loss from hypothetical catastrophes in two regions with different economic development levels in China

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3325-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Xie ◽  
N. Li ◽  
J.-D. Wu ◽  
X.-Q. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Input Output ◽  
Disaster Reduction ◽  
Regional Sustainable Development ◽  
Indirect Economic Loss ◽  
Development Levels

Abstract. This study evaluates and compares the indirect economic loss (IEL) resulting from two hypothetical catastrophes occurring in China – in developed Shanghai and in less-developed Sichuan – to provide new measures of disaster reduction. IEL was divided into indirect economic loss due to the disruption of production process (IEL I) and indirect economic loss induced by the disturbance of industrial lines (IEL II). An input-output model was used to assess these two types of IEL. The study showed that (1) developed regions may be more vulnerable with respect to IEL; (2) IEL II is the primary factor contributing to total IEL; (3) decision makers need to focus on IEL II beside IEL I which is usually the main disaster-reduction target after a disaster; and (4) tradeoff between economic growth and disaster prevention is needed to achieve regional sustainable development.

Simplex-Based Calibration of Traffic Microsimulation Models with Intelligent Transportation Systems Data

2003 ◽  
Vol 1855 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyu-Ok Kim ◽  
L. R. Rilett
Keyword(s):  
Intelligent Transportation Systems ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
System Modeling ◽  
Intelligent Transportation ◽  
Simplex Algorithm ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Test Bed ◽  
Morning Peak ◽  
Microsimulation Models

In recent years, microsimulation has become increasingly important in transportation system modeling. A potential issue is whether these models adequately represent reality and whether enough data exist with which to calibrate these models. There has been rapid deployment of intelligent transportation system (ITS) technologies in most urban areas of North America in the last 10 years. While ITSs are developed primarily for real-time traffic operations, the data are typically archived and available for traffic microsimulation calibration. A methodology, based on the sequential simplex algorithm, that uses ITS data to calibrate microsimulation models is presented. The test bed is a 23-km section of Interstate 10 in Houston, Texas. Two microsimulation models, CORSIM and TRANSIMS, were calibrated for two different demand matrices and three periods (morning peak, evening peak, and off-peak). It was found for the morning peak that the simplex algorithm had better results then either the default values or a simple, manual calibration. As the level of congestion decreased, the effectiveness of the simplex approach also decreased, as compared with standard techniques.

Research on Material Properties of Engineering Materials with Construct Disaster Preparedness of the Four-Dimensional Space in Hilly Cities’ Communities

2014 ◽  
Vol 978 ◽  
pp. 23-26
Author(s):  
Si Ru Qian
Keyword(s):  
Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Material Properties ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Dimensional Space ◽  
Materials Research ◽  
5.12 Wenchuan Earthquake ◽  
Engineering Materials ◽  
The University ◽  
Geographical Feature

We take “5.12 Wenchuan earthquake” influence and one of the university in Mianyang urban area as the typical examples of the disaster preparedness community. We discuss how to plan the multiply disaster preparedness which in accordance to the geographical feature of hilly cities through the material properties of engineering materials research and study of the four-dimensional space disaster preparedness model.

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