scholarly journals Study of Indonesia's international macroeconomic indicators before and during the covid-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Dewi Mahrani Rangkuty ◽  
Bakhtiar Efendi ◽  
Lia Nazliana Nasution
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Government

This study aims to review Indonesia's macroeconomic indicators before and during the covid-19 pandemic. Using time-series data sourced from ceicdata, this study uses non-parametric statistical methods of different tests (sign tests). The results showed that there is a significant difference between before and during the covid-19 pandemic on international macroeconomic indicators of the rupiah exchange rate against USD, external debt, reserves, and Indonesian CPI. Recommended to the Government of Indonesia through Bank Indonesia and other relevant Ministries need a strict policy on a rupiah exchange rate that leads to price stability to reduce the rate of inflation, management and disclosure of external debt information, the achievement of trade balance surplus to increase reserves towards increasing domestic economic growth.

scholarly journals Co-Integration Approach to Analysing The Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-128
Author(s):  
Biradawa Kayadi ◽  
Confidence Chinwe Opara ◽  
Christy Twaliwi Zwingina ◽  
Udeme Okon Efanga
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Impact of External Debt Management on Economic Growth of Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-41
Author(s):  
Ogbonna Ogbonna ◽  
Ihemeje Ihemeje ◽  
Obioma Obioma ◽  
Hanson Hanson ◽  
Amadi Amadi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of External debt management on economic growth of Nigeria. Using annual time series data collected over the period of 33 years (1986 – 2018). The data for the study were collected from the CBN statistical bulletin annual report. The variables on which data are collected include: Real Gross Domestic Product, External Debt, External Debt service, Balance of Payment and Exchange Rate. Data were analyzed using the Ordinary least squares (OLS) multiple regression analysis. It proceeded with Descriptive statistics; Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Co-integration test and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The study revealed that impact of external debt management on economic growth of Nigeria over the period under review was statistically significant with external debt, external debt service payment and balance of payment but statistically insignificant with exchange rate. The study recommended that governments should establish and adopt an optimal balance between external debt acquisition and application /allocation of the acquired funds to productive projects for the purpose of making a high output and a steady economic growth. The management should live up to expectation by encouraging efficient commitment of borrowed funds to productive projects so as to comply with debt serving agreement and outright payments, measures such as improving exports should be implemented to ensure that local currencies are stable.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of External Borrowing on the Economic Growth of the Developing Countries - Nigerian Experience

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeboye Akanni Akinwunmi ◽  
Rosemary Bukola Adekoya
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact of foreign borrowing on the economic growth of the developing nations using Nigeria as a case study. Time series data from 1985 and 2015 were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and other related journals. Data sourced were analyzed using Durbin Watson auto correlation to test for the reliability of the data and diagnostic tests such as unit root test (Augmented Dickey Fuller) and Johansen co-integration to test for the non-stationary of the data and long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. OLS multiple regressions were used as estimation technique to test for the relationship between the explanatory variables and economic growth. The study revealed that there is significant relationship between economic growth, exports, capital investment and debt service payment but external debt and exchange rate have a significant inverse relationship with economic growth. The study concludes that, capital investment, exports and debt service payment have impact on economic growth but external debt and exchange rate do not. Therefore, the study recommends that, purpose of borrowing should be considered important while channeling the borrowed funds and efficient utilization of the funds to solve the purpose by which it was acquired will go a long way to impact growth on the economy of the country.

scholarly journals Hypothesizing directional causality between the governance indicators and economic growth: the case of Afghanistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Naim Azimi ◽  
Mohammad Musa Shafiq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Government Effectiveness ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
The Government

AbstractThis paper examines the causal relationship between governance indicators and economic growth in Afghanistan. We use a set of quarterly time series data from 2003Q1 to 2018Q4 to test our hypothesis. Following Toda and Yamamoto’s (J Econom 66(1–2):225–250, 1995. 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8) vector autoregressive model and the modified Wald test, our empirical results show a unidirectional causality between the government effectiveness, rule of law, and the economic growth. Our findings exhibit significant causal relationships running from economic growth to the eradication of corruption, the establishment of the rule of law, quality of regulatory measures, government effectiveness, and political stability. More interestingly, we support the significant multidimensional causality hypothesis among the governance indicators. Overall, our findings not only reveal causality between economic growth and governance indicators, but they also show interdependencies among the governance indicators.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A DYNAMIC ECONOMETRIC APPROACH

2021 ◽  
pp. 16-40
Author(s):  
Comfort Akinwolere Bukola ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
Econometric Approach ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Nigeria. The study covers the period of 1986 to 2019. Using time series data, the methodology adopted is the Vector Error Correction Mechanism to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility on the selected macroeconomic variables. The result indicated that exchange rate volatility has a significant impact on economic growth, specifically it has a positive impact on inflation, unemployment and balance of trade. On the other hand it has a negative impact on economic growth and investment. The recommendations made include; that relevant authorities should try to avoid systematic currency devaluations in order to maintain exchange rate volatility at a rate that allows adjustment of the balance of payments.

Human Capital Impact on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (18) ◽  
pp. 15-22
Author(s):  
Chuwuemeka Ogugua AGBO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tertiary Institutions ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the impact of human capital on economic growth in Nigeria. Despite all effort to improve education condition in Nigeria, there hasn’t been much encouraging improvement. This has caused a large number of the population to move abroad for studies. Most conducive tertiary institutions are owned by private individuals, the government owned universities have been overlooked and recklessly abandoned. In this study OLS multiple regression was adopted to analyze the time series data for the period of 1985-2018 to test if Average Year of Schooling (AVYS), Private Investment in Telecommunication (PIT), Capital Expenditure on Education (CEE), and Recurrent Expenditure on Education (REE) have an impact on growth in Nigeria or not. The data was derived from CBN statistical Bulletin (2018). Result showed that all the four explanatory variables have significant impact on Economic growth. However, it is therefore important for government to increase education budget annually.

Investigating the non-linear Wagner’s hypothesis in South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 462-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Temitope Lydia A. Leshoro
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Regression Error ◽  
The Government

Purpose The commonly adopted view of the relationship between government spending and economic growth follows the Keynesian approach, in which government spending is considered to determine economic growth. However, there is another theory, which suggests that economic growth in fact determines government spending. This is Wagner’s hypothesis. The purpose of this paper is to investigate which of the two approaches applies to South Africa, and further observes the level of non-linearity between the two variables. Design/methodology/approach This study was carried out using quarterly time series data from 1980Q1 to 2015Q1. Granger causality technique was used to observe the direction of causality between the two variables, while regression error specification test (RESET) was employed to determine whether the variables exhibit linear or non-linear behaviour. This was followed by observing the threshold band, using two techniques, namely, sample splitting threshold regression and quadratic generalised method of moments. Findings The causality result shows that South Africa follows Wagner’s law, whereby government spending is determined by economic growth, supporting Odhiambo (2015). The RESET result shows that the variables depict a non-linear relationship, thus the government spending economic growth model is non-linear. It was found that if positive economic development is to be achieved, economic growth should preferably be kept within the −1.69 and 3.0 per cent band, and specifically above 1 per cent band. Originality/value The unique contribution of this study is that no previous study has attempted the non-linear government spending-economic growth nexus whether within the Keynesian or Wagner law for South Africa.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN: AN ARDL TO CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Nooreen Mujahid ◽  
Azeema Begum ◽  
Muhammad Noman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Relationship

This paper explores the relationship between export growth and economic growth in the case of Pakistan by employing time series data for the period 1971- 2013. This study has incorporated variables like GDP (Gross Domestic Product) exports, imports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We have applied ARDL to co-integration and Error Correction Model (ECM). The study provides the evidence of stationary time series variables, the existence of the long - run relationship between them, and the result of ECM revealed short rum equilibrium adjustment. Pakistan has many options for enhancing the export of the country. There is a dire need to minimize trade barriers and restrictions such as import and export quotas. Government of Pakistan had introduced Structural Reforms for liberalization, privatization and de-regulation which will actually shifted the trend of trade at a significant level in the end of 1980s. Low levels of interest rate can help exportable industries in which investments are needed to promote and enhance the exports. Stable exchange rate is the first and the best policy option for increasing the export and managing the imports. There is a cause and effect relationship between exchange rate and FDI. Pakistan has to immediately find the policies and processes that support logistics and facilitates trade.

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