Quantitative Evaluation of Well Blowout Risk and Oil Spill Mitigation Measures

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Zausa ◽  
Luigi Besenzoni ◽  
Alessandro Caia ◽  
Seda Mizrak
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Fluid Dynamic ◽  
Control Level ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Innovative Technologies

Abstract The disaster of Macondo of 2010 changed the rules in reliability and safety standards during drilling operations. New regulations were developed in order to improve the control level on blowout risk, and all upstream operators adopted innovative technologies capable to reduce the potential risk of uncontrolled release, either by decreasing its frequency of occurrence or the expected impacts. The objective of this paper is to present a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) of well blowout and measure the beneficial contribution of intervention technologies in terms of expected reduction of spill volume and associated costs. The QRA is applied to any kind of well operation (drilling, completion, workover, light intervention) and well type. The methodology relies upon different risk analysis techniques able to quantify the residual blowout risk, as well as the mitigation provided by each technology. Through Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a value of blowout probability is calculated for each well operation. The initial blowout condition is associated with a blowout flow rate, calculated with fluid dynamic computational models depending on well flow path and release point into the environment. The evolution of each release scenario is then studied with the use of Event Tree Analysis (ETA), where a set of events, able to reduce or stop the flow, are considered with their probability of success and occurrence time (well bridging, water coning, surface intervention through killing/capping techniques, relief well operations). The value of each intervention is estimated through Decision Tree Analysis (DTA), calculating the amount of spill volume reduction and avoided spill costs. Results of spill volume and cost reduction are calculated for a set of specific wells, considering the application of killing/capping systems as well as Eni innovative technologies. The benefit of these interventions is measured in terms of Expected Monetary Value (EMV) in relation to a potential release extinguished by a relief well, which is the decisive intervention to stop the blowout, considered as the worst case scenario. Surface interventions with killing/capping techniques are the major contributors to the reduction of blowout impacts, and all additional measures which can be adopted should act in the fastest way possible before the arrival of heavy capping stack system. The main innovative contribution of the proposed QRA methodology is the association of an expected economic value to post-blowout mitigation techniques, which takes into account all possible uncertainties related to their success and intervention time. Moreover, by evaluating an economic impact of the residual spill cost, it is possible to prioritize and increase the overall efficiency of the oil spill response plan for each operational and geographical context, and improve the control on blowout risk mitigation process.

scholarly journals Flattening the curve and the effect of atypical events on mitigation measures in Mexico: a modeling perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Santana-Cibrian ◽  
Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra ◽  
Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Effective Contact ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mother’S Day ◽  
Short Time

On 23 and 30 March 2020 the Mexican Federal government implemented social distancing measures to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic. We use a mathematical model to explore atypical transmission events within the confinement period, triggered by the timing and strength of short time perturbations of social distancing. We show that social distancing measures were successful in achieving a significant reduction of the effective contact rate in the early weeks of the intervention. However, "flattening the curve" had an undesirable effect, since the epidemic peak was delayed too far, almost to the government preset day for lifting restrictions (01 June 2020). If the peak indeed occurs in late May or early June, then the events of children's day and mother's day may either generate a later peak (worst case scenario), a long plateau with relatively constant but high incidence (middle case scenario) or the same peak date as in the original baseline epidemic curve, but with a post-peak interval of slower decay.

An Application of Worst Case Scenario Concept in Oil Spill Response Planning for Offshore Drilling Operation in Brazil

2003 ◽  
Vol 2003 (1) ◽  
pp. 371-376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélder O. Ferreira ◽  
Alexandre Cabrai ◽  
Álvaro Souza Junior
Keyword(s):  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Competent Authority ◽  
Offshore Drilling ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Oil Spill Modeling ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Under Construction

ABSTRACT The Brazilian oil and gas E&P sector has been experiencing important changes since the end of the state monopoly in 1998. These changes include a new regulatory environment which is still under construction, in particular the requirements for environmental protection. In this context, Resolution 293 of Brazilian National Environmental Council (CONAMA) was enacted regulating Facility Response Plans for oil spill incidents. These plans, which should be approved by the competent authority, include a vulnerability analysis that should discuss the probability of oil reaching certain areas as well as the environmental sensitivity of these areas. Oil spill modeling is an important tool to estimating the areas likely to be affected by an oil spill. Although oil spill modeling is also part of the environmental studies required in the environmental permitting process for oil E&P activities, there are not well defined criteria to compose the oil spill scenarios to be modeled. In order to demonstrate the impacts of different approaches in the results of oil spill modeling, a case study is presented related to an offshore drilling activity.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 Disruptions on Global BCG Coverage and Paediatric TB Mortality: A Modelling Study

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 1228
Author(s):  
Nabila Shaikh ◽  
Puck T. Pelzer ◽  
Sanne M. Thysen ◽  
Partho Roy ◽  
Rebecca C. Harris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Bacillus Calmette Guerin ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Influential Variable ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Paediatric Tuberculosis ◽  
Urgent Action

The impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage and paediatric tuberculosis (TB) mortality is still unknown. To fill this evidence-gap and guide mitigation measures, we estimated the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on global BCG coverage and paediatric TB mortality. First, we used data from multiple sources to estimate COVID-19-disrupted BCG vaccination coverage. Second, using a static mathematical model, we estimated the number of additional paediatric TB deaths in the first 15 years of life due to delayed/missed vaccinations in 14 scenarios—varying in duration of disruption, and magnitude and timing of catch-up. We estimated a 25% reduction in global BCG coverage within the disruption period. The best-case scenario (3-month disruption, 100% catch-up within 3 months) resulted in an additional 886 (0.5%) paediatric TB deaths, and the worst-case scenario (6-month disruption with no catch-up) resulted in an additional 33,074 (17%) deaths. The magnitude of catch-up was found to be the most influential variable in minimising excess paediatric TB mortality. Our results show that ensuring catch-up vaccination of missed children is a critical priority, and delivery of BCG alongside other routine vaccines may be a feasible way to achieve catch-up. Urgent action is required to support countries with recovering vaccination coverages to minimise paediatric deaths.

scholarly journals ANÁLISE DE RISCOS DO PROCESSO DE PRODUÇÃO DE FENOL E ACETONA A PARTIR DO BENZENO E PROPENO

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 0170-0180
Author(s):  
Clara Botarelli Kabbach ◽  
Daniela Denleschi Luis ◽  
Gabriela C. Soalheiro ◽  
José Eduardo A. Tavares ◽  
Tomás Fagundes Leggieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Process Stream ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Safety Requirements ◽  
Equipment And Pipelines ◽  
Qualitative Risk Analysis ◽  
Petrochemical Industries

A Segurança em processos químicos e petroquímicos tem, atualmente, importância crescente para as indústrias. Por este motivo, aplicou-se métodos de identificação de perigos e análise de risco, tal como a Análise Preliminar de Perigo (APP) e do Estudo de Perigo e Operabilidade (HazOp) em uma planta hipotética de produção de acetona a partir de benzeno e propeno. A capacidade da planta foi escolhida de acordo com o mercado nacional. Foi realizado também uma análise quantitativa, com auxílio do software PhastRisk® para alguns cenários de possíveis acidentes. Foram projetados equipamentos e dutos compatíveis com a produção estipulada e as substâncias envolvidas foram avaliadas quanto aos quesitos inflamabilidade, toxicidade e outros parâmetros relevantes à análise de riscos durante a produção de acetona e fenol. Como resultado dos métodos qualitativos foram propostas recomendações para reduzir a probabilidade de ocorrência dos riscos. Com a análise quantitativa determinou-se as distâncias radiais, a partir o ponto de liberação, alcançadas pela radiação emitida, pela dispersão da nuvem tóxica e o pelo impacto da sobrepressão. Os resultados mostraram que os piores cenários são para os casos de grandes vazamentos de acetona e propeno.Process safety is a main concern in chemical and petrochemical industries nowadays. In this context, an applied hazard identification and risk assessment were performed in a hypothetical acetone plant based on the Hock process. The capacity of the plant was chosen according to Brazilian market conditions. Quantitative risk analysis for a few scenarios was carried out by using PhastRisk® software. As a result, equipment and pipelines were designed to meet process throughput as well as safety requirements. Some hazard properties of process stream, such as flammability and toxicity, were evaluated and their impact was taken into account in the plant. Based on a qualitative risk analysis, some recommendations to reduce incident probability were proposed. The quantitative approach also indicated the critical zone of impact, the radiation emitted and the toxic cloud dispersion that would take place from the leakage point. The results showed that the worst case scenario involved a leakage of acetone and propylene.

Validating Marine Oil Spill Response Planning Assumptions and Execution with Analytics Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-73
Author(s):  
Holly Osen ◽  
Marcy Casement ◽  
Fred Sparks
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Mutual Aid ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Critical Resources

ABSTRACT # 2017-209 Running a full-scale emergency response operation involves coordinated and interdependent workstreams that must be sufficiently resourced and supported to ensure that objectives are accomplished. Oil spill response planning provides the framework to rapidly scale up those operations and enable essential workstreams through pre-identified resources, facilities, logistics and capabilities. A systematic analysis of response plans can be used to validate an executable tier 1 response based on local capabilities, and provide a basis for planning the strategic cascading of additional resources for tier 2 and 3 responses with consideration for the limiting factors identified through analytics. A proprietary analytics model was developed to examine and validate planning assumptions, resources and logistics against response requirements. The analysis includes a facilitated cross functional plan review using pre-defined response “workstreams” (e.g., shoreline protection and clean-up) broken down by tasks (e.g., SCAT or beach clean-up). For each task, the resources and logistics needed to accomplish the task are defined and evaluated to identify the limited or critical resources (e.g., supervisor qualifications, waste capacity, transportation, etc.). The resource requirements and constraining factors identified through the analysis are compared to the resourcing identified in existing plans and validated by business function representatives to highlight resource gaps and areas for planning and capability improvements. The emergency response planning analytics model was tested using existing oil spill response plans from two business units within the organization. A worst case scenario oil spill simulation was used as the basis for the plan analysis. The analysis produced findings indicating that existing plans were insufficient in specific areas and existing resources would be exhausted before cascaded resources could arrive to support a longer-term response to a major oil spill on water unless alternative resourcing plans were established. Specific gaps in planning, trained personnel, equipment, logistics and support facilities were identified along with recommendations for gap closure. Pilot testing of the analysis tools suggests that effective planning requires a detailed understanding of critical resources, limiting factors and workstream interdependencies so that that the strategies and tactics defined in planning (and those developed during an active response) optimize their use. Additionally, outputs from the model may be used as the basis for increasing local reserves of response equipment and supplies, developing regional mutual aid capabilities and establishing training and exercise objectives.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

Fire Risk Analysis Using Geospatial Approach and Mitigation Measures for South-West Delhi

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (8) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
S. K. Tomar ◽  
A. Kaur ◽  
H. K. Dangi ◽  
T. Ghawana ◽  
K. Sarma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Fire Service ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Fire Risk Analysis ◽  
South West ◽  
Geospatial Tools ◽  
Fire Stations

One of the major challenge from unplanned growth in the cities is the fire incidents posing a serious threat to life and property. Delhi, the capital city of India, has seen unplanned growth of colonies resulting in a serious concern for the relevant agencies. This paper investigates the relation between potential causes of fire incidents during 2013-2016 in South-West Delhi Division of Delhi Fire Services as part of risk analysis using the data about fire stations & their jurisdictions, incidents of fire, water reservoirs available, landuse and population data along with the divisional & sub-divisional boundaries of South-West Delhi division under Delhi Fire Service. Statistical and Geospatial tools have been used together to perform the risk analysis. The analysis reveals that difference in actual occupancy and defined landuse as a part of unplanned growth of settlements is found to be the main reason behind the major fire incidents. The suggested mitigation measures focus on legal, policy, physical & technological aspects and highlight the need to bring the systemic changes with changing scenario of demographics and infrastructure to accommodate more aspects of ground reality.

EXPEDITION TO MALI, 2020

2020 ◽  
pp. 12-28
Author(s):  
D. V. Vaniukova ◽  
◽  
P. A. Kutsenkov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Murder ◽  
The State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Traditional Art ◽  
Peter The Great ◽  
State Museum ◽  
Bobo Dioulasso ◽  
Oriental Studies ◽  
The Village

The research expedition of the Institute of Oriental studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences has been working in Mali since 2015. Since 2017, it has been attended by employees of the State Museum of the East. The task of the expedition is to study the transformation of traditional Dogon culture in the context of globalization, as well as to collect ethnographic information (life, customs, features of the traditional social and political structure); to collect oral historical legends; to study the history, existence, and transformation of artistic tradition in the villages of the Dogon Country in modern conditions; collecting items of Ethnography and art to add to the collection of the African collection of the. Peter the Great Museum (Kunstkamera, Saint Petersburg) and the State Museum of Oriental Arts (Moscow). The plan of the expedition in January 2020 included additional items, namely, the study of the functioning of the antique market in Mali (the “path” of things from villages to cities, which is important for attributing works of traditional art). The geography of our research was significantly expanded to the regions of Sikasso and Koulikoro in Mali, as well as to the city of Bobo-Dioulasso and its surroundings in Burkina Faso, which is related to the study of migrations to the Bandiagara Highlands. In addition, the plan of the expedition included organization of a photo exhibition in the Museum of the village of Endé and some educational projects. Unfortunately, after the mass murder in March 2019 in the village of Ogossogou-Pel, where more than one hundred and seventy people were killed, events in the Dogon Country began to develop in the worst-case scenario: The incessant provocations after that revived the old feud between the Pel (Fulbe) pastoralists and the Dogon farmers. So far, this hostility and mutual distrust has not yet developed into a full-scale ethnic conflict, but, unfortunately, such a development now seems quite likely.

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