Emergence of climate change signals in marine ecosystem thermal niches
Abstract Temperature is one of the most important drivers of global ocean patterns of biodiversity1,2,3 shaping thermal niches through thresholds of physiological thermal tolerance4. Because of anthropogenic global warming, lower and upper thermal niche bounds are predicted to change affecting the future distribution of marine species5,6. Current working hypotheses suggest an expansion of ectotherms toward their poleward boundaries7,8. Nonetheless, the knowledge of the timing and extent of these rearrangements across latitude and depth remains limited. Here, using daily data across the water column from both Ocean Sites network observations and novel Earth System Model, we track the emergence of thermal niches whose lower bound is warmer than their current upper bound, potentially disrupting marine habitats. We show that these developments will emerge by ~2030 in subsurface waters (~50 – 1000 m) if anthropogenic emissions continue to rise, whereas they delay several decades if emissions are substantially reduced. By 2100, thermal niches will be warmer than current counterparts. However, we further show that depending on the vertical level, concomitant changes in both boundaries will result in wider or narrower thermal niches. These results suggest that the redistribution of marine species might differ across depth, shedding light upon a much more complex picture of the impact of climate change on marine habitats.