scholarly journals Evaluation of Preventive Measures and Forecasting of COVID-19 Infection: Case Study Egypt.

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Safaa A A Khaled ◽  
Ahmed A A Hafez
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Heuristic Technique ◽  
Egyptian Government ◽  
High Degree

Abstract Background COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. This article assessed the effectiveness of preventive measures of COVID-19 infection, including social distancing (SD) and quarantine (Q) of patients and contacts in Egypt. Methods A simple model was developed to predict the infection rate without preventive measures. The article utilizes fertile meta- heuristic technique and particle swarm optimization (PSO), to predict the growth of the disease. Results A correlation between the predicted and actual infected cases, validated the proposed forecasting algorithm. Preventive measures together with the Egyptian Government stay home order reduced 98% of expected infections. PSO analyses showed that infection and death rates will continue to increase particularly with lifting these restrictive preventive measures. Conclusions The advised PSO model could predict COVID-19 infection and death rates with high degree of accuracy. This prediction model could help health authorities in decision making.

How Social Culture Impacts Young Executive Decision Making in a Context of Uncertainty

2018 ◽  
pp. 55-72
Author(s):  
Kenneth David Strang ◽  
Narasimha Rao Vajjhala
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Controlled Experiment ◽  
Uncertain Information ◽  
Social Culture ◽  
Executive Decision Making ◽  
High Degree

In this chapter, we explore social science theories that could explain how executives make decisions in contexts with a high degree of uncertainty. In particular we focus on how emerging young executives respond to risk in situations of uncertainty. First, we conduct a literature review followed by a critical analysis of socio-cultural decision-making literature. Then we performed a controlled experiment using a sample of senior university students to represent young executives. A context of uncertainty was designed which required the participants to work in small teams and make a decision based on incomplete and uncertain information about a managerial case study. In this way, we intended to illustrate what aspects of culture impacts decision making in a context of uncertainty.

scholarly journals Diffuse cognitive maps for analysis of vulnerability to climate variability in Andean rural micro-watersheds

DYNA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 87 (212) ◽  
pp. 38-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabel Cristina Bolaños Portilla ◽  
Isabel Cristina Hurtado Sánchez ◽  
Inés Restrepo Tarquino
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Cognitive Maps ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Dynamics Analysis ◽  
Valle Del Cauca ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Increased Pressure

Diffuse cognitive map was applied to analyse factors of vulnerability to climate variability in rural Andean micro-watershed. The iModeler software was used as a tool that allows the modelling of these maps. As input information, the results of the socioecological dynamics analysis previously implemented in the case study were taken, and weights were assigned to each input factor in relation to a central factor in a time scale. The model applied in the El Chocho micro-watershed - Department of Valle del Cauca in Colombia, can be validated in similar contexts of the Andean Colombian area. A high degree of water shortage and increased pressure on the associated ecosystems was evidenced, which puts at risk the resilience of the socio-ecosystem to face climate variability. The results of this type of models are tools for decision making in adaptation at rural level.

scholarly journals Simulation-based multi-criteria decision making: an interactive method with a case study on infectious disease epidemics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Dunke ◽  
Stefan Nickel
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Parameter Uncertainty ◽  
Multiple Objectives ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Analysis Question ◽  
Simulation Based

AbstractWhenever a system needs to be operated by a central decision making authority in the presence of two or more conflicting goals, methods from multi-criteria decision making can help to resolve the trade-offs between these goals. In this work, we devise an interactive simulation-based methodology for planning and deciding in complex dynamic systems subject to multiple objectives and parameter uncertainty. The outline intermittently employs simulation models and global sensitivity analysis methods in order to facilitate the acquisition of system-related knowledge throughout the iterations. Moreover, the decision maker participates in the decision making process by interactively adjusting control variables and system parameters according to a guiding analysis question posed for each iteration. As a result, the overall decision making process is backed up by sensitivity analysis results providing increased confidence in terms of reliability of considered decision alternatives. Using the efficiency concept of Pareto optimality and the sensitivity analysis method of Sobol’ sensitivity indices, the methodology is then instantiated in a case study on planning and deciding in an infectious disease epidemic situation similar to the 2020 coronavirus pandemic. Results show that the presented simulation-based methodology is capable of successfully addressing issues such as system dynamics, parameter uncertainty, and multi-criteria decision making. Hence, it represents a viable tool for supporting decision makers in situations characterized by time dynamics, uncertainty, and multiple objectives.

Tissue section lifting for electron microscopy

1978 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-87
Author(s):  
Adrian F. van Dellen
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Electron Microscopy ◽  
Tissue Culture ◽  
Organ System ◽  
Surrounding Tissue ◽  
Paraffin Sections ◽  
Surface Areas ◽  
Specific Determination ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Accuracy And Repeatability

The morphologic pathologist may require information on the ultrastructure of a non-specific lesion seen under the light microscope before he can make a specific determination. Such lesions, when caused by infectious disease agents, may be sparsely distributed in any organ system. Tissue culture systems, too, may only have widely dispersed foci suitable for ultrastructural study. In these situations, when only a few, small foci in large tissue areas are useful for electron microscopy, it is advantageous to employ a methodology which rapidly selects a single tissue focus that is expected to yield beneficial ultrastructural data from amongst the surrounding tissue. This is in essence what "LIFTING" accomplishes. We have developed LIFTING to a high degree of accuracy and repeatability utilizing the Microlift (Fig 1), and have successfully applied it to tissue culture monolayers, histologic paraffin sections, and tissue blocks with large surface areas that had been initially fixed for either light or electron microscopy.

Perancangan aplikasi multi criteria decision making dalam penerimaan beasiswa kepada dosen studi lanjut STMIK Balikpapan menggunakan metode SAW

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Muslimin B ◽  
Sumardi Sumardi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Teaching And Learning ◽  
Teaching Assistants ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Scholarship Recipients ◽  
The Matrix ◽  
Application Decision ◽  
High Degree ◽  
New Student

 Interests and number of STMIK Balikpapan new student enrollments are increasing every year. The balance of the ratio of lecturers to students is one of the most important components in improving the quality and teaching and learning process of a university. Avoiding shortages in the number of lecturers can be realized by providing scholarship programs to alumni and teaching assistants. This study aims to build a multi criteria decision making application that can assist the Head of HRD in the process of receiving scholarships to advanced and effective study lecturers. The multi criteria decision making application developed in this study uses the SAW method. The implementation of the SAW method includes the process of evaluating the weighting of criteria, evaluating alternative weights, the matrix process, the results of decision making preferences, resulting in the weighting and ranking of each alternative candidate for the scholarship recipient. The results of the evaluation of multi-criteria application decision making in the study are expected to produce modeling with a high degree of accuracy. The results of the analysis carried out can provide alternative recommendations for prospective scholarship recipients to advanced study lecturers in STMIK Balikpapan.

Blockchain in Supply Chain: Case Study of Lottemart Ciputat

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. K. Handoyo ◽  
M. R. Mashudi ◽  
H. P. Ipung
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply Chain Management ◽  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
New Technology ◽  
Business Case ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Chain Management ◽  
Production Processes

Current supply chain methods are having difficulties in resolving problems arising from the lack of trust in supply chains. The root reason lies in two challenges brought to the traditional mechanism: self-interests of supply chain members and information asymmetry in production processes. Blockchain is a promising technology to address these problems. The key objective of this paper is to present qualitative analysis for blockchain in supply chain as the decision-making framework to implement this new technology. The analysis method used Val IT business case framework, validated by the expert judgements. The further study needs to be elaborated by either the existing organization that use blockchain or assessment by the organization that will use blockchain to improve their supply chain management.

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