Nomograms Predicting Overall Survival and Cancer Special Survival for Cervical Cancer in stage IIIC1

Author(s):  
Yifan Feng ◽  
Ye Wang ◽  
Yangqin Xie ◽  
Shuwei Wu ◽  
Yuyang Li ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundThe purpose of this study is to explore the factors that affect the prognosis of overall survival (OS) and cancer special survival (CSS) in cervical cancer with stage IIIC1 and establish nomogram models to predict this prognosis.MethodsData from The Surveil-lance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program meeting the inclusion criterions were classified into training group, and data of validation were obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 2010 to 2019. The incidence, Kaplan‐Meier curves, OS and CSS of stage IIIC1 were evaluated according to the training group. Nomograms were established according to the results of univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Harrell’s C-index and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were calculated to measure the accuracy of the prediction models. Calibration plots show the relationship between the predicted probability and the actual outcome. Decision-curve analysis (DCA) was applied to evaluate the clinical applicability of the constructed nomogram.ResultsThe incidence of pelvic lymph node metastasis, a high-risk factor for prognosis in cervical cancer, decreased slightly over time. There are eight independent prognostic variables for OS, including age, race, histology, differentiation, extension range, tumor size, radiation recode and surgery, but seven for CSS with age excluded. Nomograms of OS and CSS were established based on the results. The C-index for the nomograms of OS and CSS were 0.692, 0.689 respectively when random sampling of SEER data sets, and 0.706, 0.737 respectively when random sampling of external data sets. AUCs for the nomogram of OS were 0.648, 0.644 respectively, and 0.683, 0.675 for the nomogram of CSS. Calibration plots for the nomograms were almost identical to the actual observations. The DCA also proved the value of the two models.ConclusionAge, race, histology, differentiation, extension range, tumor size, radiation recode and surgery were all independent prognosis factors for OS. Only age excepts in CSS. OS and CSS nomograms were established in our study based on the result of multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression, and both own good predictive and clinical application value after validation.

BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifan Feng ◽  
Ye Wang ◽  
Yangqin Xie ◽  
Shuwei Wu ◽  
Yuyang Li ◽  
...  

Abstract Background To explore the factors that affect the prognosis of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with stage IIIC1 cervical cancer and establish nomogram models to predict this prognosis. Methods Data from patients in the Surveil-lance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) programme meeting the inclusion criteria were classified into a training group, and validation data were obtained from the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 2010 to 2019. The incidence, Kaplan-Meier curves, OS and CSS of patients with stage IIIC1 cervical cancer in the training group were evaluated. Nomograms were established according to the results of univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Harrell’s C-index, calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were calculated to validate the prediction models. Results The incidence of pelvic lymph node metastasis, a high-risk factor for the prognosis of cervical cancer, decreased slightly over time. Eight independent prognostic variables were identified for OS, including age, race, marriage status, histology, extension range, tumour size, radiotherapy and surgery, but only seven were identified for CSS, with marriage status excluded. Nomograms of OS and CSS were established based on the results. The C-indexes for the nomograms of OS and CSS were 0.687 and 0.692, respectively, using random sampling of SEER data sets and 0.701 and 0.735, respectively, using random sampling of external data sets. The AUCs for the nomogram of OS were 0.708 and 0.705 for the SEER data sets and 0.750 and 0.750 for the external data sets, respectively. In addition, AUCs of 0.707 and 0.709 were obtained for the nomogram of CSS when validated using SEER data sets, and 0.788 and 0.785 when validated using external data sets. Calibration plots for the nomograms were almost identical to the actual observations. The DCA also indicated the value of the two models. Conclusions Eight independent prognostic variables were identified for OS. The same factors predicted CSS, with the exception of the marriage status. Both OS and CSS nomograms had good predictive and clinical application value after validation. Notably, tumour size had the largest contribution to the OS and CSS nomograms.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Huang ◽  
He Wang ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
Xinrui Li ◽  
Lei Zhu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: It has been demonstrated by studies globally that autophagy took part in the development of cervical cancer (CC). Few studies concentrated on the correlation between overall survival and CC patients. We retrieved significant autophagy-related genes (ARGs) correlated to the process of cervical cancer. They may be used as prognosis marker or treatment target for clinical application.Methods: Expressions level of genes in cervical cancer and normal tissue samples were obtained from GTEx and TCGA database. Autophagy-related genes (ARGs) were retrieved accroding to the gene list from HaDB. Differentially expressed autophagy related genes (DE-ARGs) related to cervical cancer were identified by Wilcoxon signed-rank test. ClusterProfiler package worked in R software was used to perform GO and KEGG enrichment analyses. Univariate propotional hazard cox regression and multivariate propotional hazard cox regressions were applied to identify DE-ARGs equipped with prognostic value and other clinical independent risk factors. ROC curve was drawn for comparing the survival predict feasibility of risk score with other risk factors in CC patients. Nomogram was drawn to exhibit the prediction model constructed accroding to multivariate cox regression. Correlations between Differentially expressed autophagy related genes (DE-ARGs) and other clinical features were investigated by t test or Cruskal wallis analysis. Correlation between Immune and autophagy in cervical cancer was investigated by ssGSEA and TIMER database. Results: Fifty-six differentially expressed ARGs (DE-ARGs) were retrieved from cervical cancer tissue and normal tissue samples. GO enrichment analysis showed that these ARGs involved in autophagy, ubiquitination of protein and apoptosis. Cox regression medel showed that there were six ARGs significantly associated with overall survival of cervical caner patients. VAMP7 (HR = 0.599, P= 0.033) and TP73 (HR = 0.671, P= 0.014) played protective roles in survival among these six genes. Stage (Stage IV vs Stage I HR = 3.985, P<0.001) and risk score (HR = 1.353, P< 0.001) were sorted as independent prognostic risk factors based on multivariate cox regression. ROC curve validated that risk score was preferable to predict survival of CC patients than other risk factors. Additionally, we found some of these six predictor ARGs were correlated significantly in statistic with tumor grade or stage, clinical T stage, clinical N stage, pathology or risk score (all P< 0.05). The immune cells and immune functions showed a lower activity in high risk group than low risk group which is distincted by median risk score. Conclusion: Our discovery showed that autophagy genes involved in the progress of cervical cancer. Many autophagy-related genes could probably serve as prognostic biomarkers and accelerate the discovery of treatment targets for CC patients.


2021 ◽  
pp. 106689692110560
Author(s):  
Hao Cheng ◽  
Chi Yihebali ◽  
Hongtu Zhang ◽  
Lei Guo ◽  
Susheng Shi

Background Synovial sarcoma (SS) is a rare soft tissue sarcoma. Available data regarding survival outcomes of patients with SS still remains limited. In this study, a single center retrospective analysis was performed to investigate the clinical characteristics, pathology and survival outcomes in patients with SS in China. Methods Patient data were systematically reviewed at the National Cancer Center from January 2015 to December 2020. The general information and treatment condition of patients were collected. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression method. Results A total of 237 consecutive patients were included in this study (follow-up cut-off date: December, 2020). The median age of patients involved was 35 years (ranging from 5 to 83 years) and the mean tumor diameter was 5.3 cm (ranging from .2 to 26.0 cm). The main findings of the immunohistochemical staining analyses were EMA (111/156) (71%), keratin (32/64) (50.0%), keratin (12/20) (60%), keratin (42/70) (60%), S-100 (18/160) (11%), BCL-2 (128/134) (96%), CD99 (137/148) (93%) and TLE1 (23/26) (88%). It was found that 109 patients (66%) were presented with monophasic subtype and 55 (34%) with biphasic subtype. A total of 137 patients were tested by FISH method and 119 patients (87%) demonstrated SS18 rearrangement, whereas 18 patients (13%) did not show SS18 rearrangement. Generally, it was found that the 3-year OS rate was 86% and the 3-year DFS was 55%. Results of univariate analysis revealed that age, tumor size, tumor site, radiotherapy and targeted therapy were significantly correlated with the overall survival ( P < .05). Further, multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that age, tumor size and radiotherapy were significantly associated with OS ( P < .05). Conclusions In conclusion, this study shows that the outcomes of patients with SS significantly decrease with age and tumor size. It was evident that radiotherapy is an independent and positive prognostic factor for patients with SS. In addition, it was shown that the prognosis of SS varies with tumor location. For instance, primary tumors in lower extremities have a higher prognosis, whereas tumors located in thorax have a lower prognosis.


2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 314-314
Author(s):  
Tobin Joel Crill Strom ◽  
Sarah E. Hoffe ◽  
Shivakumar Vignesh ◽  
Jason Klapman ◽  
Cynthia L. Harris ◽  
...  

314 Background: Resectable pancreatic cancer patients often present with obstructive jaundice necessitating the placement of biliary stents or percutaneouse drainage catheters. We sought to evaluate whether preoperative biliary drainage affects recurrence and survival. Methods: An IRB-approved study was conducted on our institutional tumor registry to identify pancreatic cancer patients who were treated with upfront surgery between 2000 and 2012. Patients were then stratified by preoperative use of endoscopically placed stents (ERCP), percutaneous catheters (PTC), or no biliary drainage (NBD). The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS). Survival curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis (MVA) was performed with a Cox regression model. Results: We identified 202 patients for the study (21 PTC; 89 ERCP; 92 NBD). Key differences between the 3 groups were mean pathologic tumor size (p=0.005), pathologic T3/4 (p =0.01), and pathologic N1 (p=0.007) status, with more aggressive pathologic features in PTC patients. PTC patients had a non-significant increase in rate of hepatic recurrences compared with ERCP and NBD patients (47.4% vs. 26.6% vs. 28.7%, respectively; p=0.20). PTC patients also had worse median and 3 year survival (21 months and 16%) compared to ERCP (23.3 months and 39%) and NBD patients (29 months and 45%, p=0.02). MVA revealed that PTC was an independent predictor of worse overall survival (HR 2.3[95% CI 1.3-4.0], p=0.005), along with pathologic tumor size (HR 1.1[1.0-1.3], p=0.008), nodes positive (HR 1.1[1.1-1.2], p=0.001), and post-operative CA19-9 >90 (HR 2.6[1.5-4.4], p=0.001). Conclusions: Patients with resectable pancreatic cancer who require a pre-operative PTC drain had a non-significant increase in hepatic recurrence rate and worse overall survival than patients who either had an ERCP stent placed or no biliary decompression prior to surgery. Given their worse prognosis, patients who require PTC placement might also benefit from neoadjuvant treatment with restaging prior to surgery.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Chen ◽  
Yizeng Wang ◽  
Ke Zhao ◽  
Yuyun Wang ◽  
Dongyang Li ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) accounts for 1% -2% of thyroid cancer in the United States based on the latest Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, this study aimed to construct a comprehensive predictive nomogram based on various clinical variables in MTC patients who undergo total thyroidectomy and neck lymph nodes dissection.Methods Data regarding 1237 MTC patients who undergo total thyroidectomy and neck lymph nodes dissection from 2004 to 2015 were obtained from the SEER database. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen for meaningful independent predictors. These independent factors were used to construct a nomogram model, a survival prognostication tool for 3- and 5-year overall survival and cancer-specific survival among these MTC patients.Result A total of 1237 patients enrolled from the SEER database were randomly divided into the training group (n = 867) and the test group (n = 370). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify meaningful independent prognostic factors (P <0.05). Tumor size, age, metastasis status, and LNR were selected as independent predictors of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Finally, two nomograms were developed, the predicted C-index of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate in the training group were 0.828 and 0.904, respectively. The predicted C-index of overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) rate in the test group were 0.813 and 0.828.Conclusion Nomograms constructed by using various clinical variables can make more comprehensive and accurate predictions for MTC patients who undergo total thyroidectomy and neck lymph nodes. These predictive nomograms help identify postoperative high-risk MTC patients and facilitate patient counseling on clinical prognosis and follow-up.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Xinjie Wu ◽  
Yanlei Wang ◽  
Wei Sun ◽  
Mingsheng Tan

Introduction. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with limb chondrosarcomas. Methods. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database was used to identify patients diagnosed with chondrosarcomas, from which data was extracted from 18 registries in the United States between 1973 and 2016. A total of 813 patients were selected from the database. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazards regression models on the training group to identify independent prognostic factors and construct a nomogram to predict the 3- and 5-year survival probability of patients with limb chondrosarcomas. The predictive values were compared using concordance indexes ( C -indexes) and calibration plots. Results. All 813 patients were randomly divided into a training group ( n = 572 ) and a validation group ( n = 241 ). After univariate and multivariate Cox regression, a nomogram was constructed based on a new model containing the predictive variables of age, site, grade, tumor size, histology, stage, and use of surgery, radiotherapy, or chemotherapy. The prediction model provided excellent C -indexes (0.86 and 0.77 in the training and validation groups, respectively). The good discrimination and calibration of the nomograms were demonstrated for both the training and validation groups. Conclusions. The nomograms precisely and individually predict the overall survival of patients with limb chondrosarcomas and could assist personalized prognostic evaluation and individualized clinical decision-making.


2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huamei Tang ◽  
Lijuan Kan ◽  
Tong Ou ◽  
Dayang Chen ◽  
Xiaowen Dou ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Bladder cancer is one of the most common malignancies. So far, no effective biomarker for bladder cancer prognosis has been identified. Aberrant DNA methylation is frequently observed in the bladder cancer and holds considerable promise as a biomarker for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients. Materials and methods: We downloaded the DNA methylation and transcriptome data for bladder cancer from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), a public database, screened hypo-methylated and up-regulated genes, similarly, hyper-methylation with low expression genes, then retrieved the relevant methylation sites. Cox regression analysis was used to identify a nine-methylation site signature of a training group. Predictive ability was validated in a test group by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Results: We identified nine bladder cancer-specific methylation sites as potential prognostic biomarkers and established a risk score system based on the methylation site signature to evaluate the OS. The performance of the signature was accurate, with area under curve was 0.73 in the training group and 0.71 in the test group. Taking clinical features into consideration, we constructed a nomogram consisting of the nine-methylation site signature and patients’ clinical variables, and found that the signature was an independent risk factor. Conclusions: Overall, the significant nine methylation sites could be novel prediction biomarkers, which could aid in treatment and also predict the overall survival likelihoods of bladder cancer patients.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi Cui ◽  
Yaru Duan ◽  
Rui Li ◽  
Hua Ye ◽  
Peng Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background This study aims to evaluate the clinicopathological characteristics of metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and develop nomograms to predict their long-term overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Methods Information on metastatic HCC from 2010 to 2015 was retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute. The metastatic HCC patients were divided into a long-term survival (LTS) group and a short-term survival (STS) group with 1 year selected as the cut-off value. Then, we compared the demographic and clinicopathological features between the two groups. Next, all patients were randomly divided into a training group and validation group at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify potential predictors for OS and CSS in the training group, and nomograms of OS and CSS were established. These predictive models were further validated in the validation group. Results A total of 2163 patients were included in the current study according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Patients with characteristics including lower T stage and N stage; treatment with surgery, radiation or chemotherapy; no lung metastasis; and AFP negative status showed better survival. The concordance index (C-index) of the OS nomogram was 0.72 based on 9 variables. The C-index of the CSS nomogram was 0.71 based on 8 variables. Conclusions These nomograms may help clinicians make better treatment recommendations for metastatic HCC patients.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
wang chengwei

Abstract Background: Few models have been used to estimate the survival rate of patients metastatic Ewing sarcoma of bone are scarce. We aimed to develop nomograms for predicting 3-, 5-year survival for these patients.Methods: We extracted 686 cases of metastatic Ewing's sarcoma diagnosed between 1973 and 2016 from the Surveillance, Epidemiological and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis were used to determine independent prognostic factors. The nomograms are based on the results of multivariate Cox analysis. We also evaluate the performance of these prediction models through the analysis of time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, concordance index, calibration curve and decision curve.Results: Age, surgery, tumor size, treatment method and chemotherapy were considered to be important predictors of overall survival of bone metastatic Ewing's sarcoma. Based on these factors, the nomogram models were established and verified internally. These models have good identification and calibration characteristics. A risk classification system based on nomogram has also been constructed to promote risk stratification of metastatic Ewing's sarcoma and to optimize clinical management.Conclusions: We developed the first nomograms and corresponding risk classification system to predict the survival of patients with bone metastatic Ewing's sarcoma. These easy-to-use tools can help oncologists and surgeons make accurate survival assessments.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 1143-1150
Author(s):  
Ting wen yi Hu ◽  
Yue Huang ◽  
Na Li ◽  
Dan Nie ◽  
Zhengyu Li

IntroductionRecently, the safety of minimally invasive surgery in the treatment of cervical cancer has been questioned. This study was designed to compare the disease-free survival and overall survival of abdominal radical hysterectomy and laparoscopic radical hysterectomy in patients with early-stage cervical cancer.MethodsA total of 1065 patients with early-stage cervical cancer who had undergone abdominal/laparoscopic radical hysterectomy between January 2013 and December 2016 in seven hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. The 1:1 propensity score matching was performed in all patients. Patients with tumor size ≥2 cm and <2 cm were stratified and analyzed separately. Disease-free survival and overall survival were compared between matched groups. After confirming the normality by the Shapiro-Wilks test, the Mann-Whitney U test and the χ2 test were used for the comparison of continuous and categorical variables, respectively. The survival curves were generated by the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by log-rank test.ResultsAfter matching, a total of 812 patients were included in the disease-free survival and overall survival analyses. In the entire cohort, the laparoscopic radical hysterectomy group had a significantly shorter disease-free survival (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.00 to 2.73; p=0.048) but not overall survival (HR 1.60, 95% CI 0.89 to 2.88; p=0.12) when compared with the abdominal radical hysterectomy group. In patients with tumor size ≥2 cm, the laparoscopic radical hysterectomy group had a significantly shorter disease-free survival (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.05 to 3.55; p=0.032) than the abdominal radical hysterectomy group, whereas no significant difference in overall survival (HR 1.90, 95% CI 0.95 to 3.83; p=0.10) was found. Additionally, in patients with tumor size <2 cm, the laparoscopic radical hysterectomy and abdominal radical hysterectomy groups had similar disease-free survival (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.24 to 2.16; p=0.59) and overall survival (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.11 to 3.13; p=0.53).ConclusionLaparoscopic radical hysterectomy was associated with inferior disease-free survival compared with abdominal radical hysterectomy in the entire cohort, as well as in patients with tumor size ≥2 cm. For the surgical treatment of patients with early-stage cervical cancer, priority should be given to open abdominal radical hysterectomy.


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