scholarly journals Health Burden and Economic Impacts Attributed to PM2.5 and O3 in China from 2010 to 2050 under Different Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiyi Wang ◽  
jianlin Hu ◽  
Jia Zhu ◽  
Jingyi Li ◽  
Momei Qin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathway ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Future Health ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Health Burden ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background: Quantifying future health burden attributed to fine particulate matters (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) in China is challenging when jointly accounting for emissions, climate and population changes. Future health burdens caused by PM2.5 and O3 in China remain largely understudied. Methods: In this paper, we used the Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to project PM2.5 and O3 concentrations from 2010 to 2050 under four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), then projected the PM2.5 and O3-related premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) in this period. We then estimated the resulting economic burdens such as medical expenses (ME) and value of statistical life (VSL) in 2010-2050 attributed to the burdens of disease on PM2.5 and O3.Results: Compared to the targeted year 2050, we found that PM2.5 concentrations changed between -31.5% to 14.5% since 2010, resulted in -13.5% to 9.4% change in PM2.5-related mortality and -25.7% to 0.6% change in YLL across all the RCPs scenarios. For O3, the concentrations varied -13.3% to 3.7% by 2050, contributing to -26.9% to 13.1% change in O3-related mortality and -48.8% to 4.0% change in YLL. The lowest health impacts occurred in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 for both pollutants. In 2010, the ME caused by PM2.5 and O3 was $6.3-6.5 billion, and the VSL was $112.1-114.9 billion, accounting for 2.9-3.0% of the total GDP ($3874 billion). By 2050, ME and VSL will change from -19.7% to 17.5% and from -65.5% to 136.6%, respectively.Conclusion: This study suggested that future PM2.5 and O3 under certain RCP scenarios can have large health and economic benefits. However, given that the future population will always be higher than the baseline in 2010, more aggressive air pollution mitigation measures are needed for China.

scholarly journals Analysis of summer O<sub>3</sub> in the Madrid air basin with the LOTOS-EUROS chemical transport model

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Escudero ◽  
Arjo Segers ◽  
Richard Kranenburg ◽  
Xavier Querol ◽  
Andrés Alastuey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Vertical Transport ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Photochemical Pollution ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Low Wind Speeds ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. Tropospheric O3 remains a major air-quality issue in the Mediterranean region. The combination of large anthropogenic emissions of precursors, transboundary contributions, a warm and dry aestival climate and topographical features results in severe cases of photochemical pollution. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are essential tools for studying O3 dynamics and for assessing mitigation measures but they need to be evaluated specifically for each air basin. In this study, we present an optimisation of the LOTOS-EUROS CTM for the Madrid air basin. Five configurations using different meteorological datasets (from the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)), horizontal resolution and number of vertical levels were compared for July 2016. LOTOS-EUROS responded satisfactorily in the five configurations reproducing observations of surface O3 with notable correlation and reduced bias and errors. However, the best-fit simulations for surface O3 were obtained by increasing spatial resolution and using a large number of vertical levels to reproduce vertical transport phenomena and the formation of reservoir layers. Using the optimal configuration obtained in the evaluation, three characteristic events have been described: recirculation (REC) episodes and northern and southern advection (NAD and SAD, respectively) events. REC events were found to produce the highest O3 due to the reduced ventilation associated with low wind speeds and the contribution of reservoir layers formed by vertical transport of O3 formed near the surface in the previous days of the event. NAD events, usually associated with higher wind speeds, present the lowest ground-level O3 concentrations in the region. During SAD episodes, external contributions along with low wind speeds allow O3 to increase considerably, but not as much as in REC events because steady southerly winds disperse local emissions and hinder the formation of reservoir layers.

scholarly journals Analysis of summer O<sub>3</sub> in the Madrid air basin with the LOTOS-EUROS chemical transport model

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (22) ◽  
pp. 14211-14232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Escudero ◽  
Arjo Segers ◽  
Richard Kranenburg ◽  
Xavier Querol ◽  
Andrés Alastuey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Vertical Transport ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Photochemical Pollution ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Low Wind Speeds ◽  
Surface O3

Abstract. Tropospheric O3 remains a major air-quality issue in the Mediterranean region. The combination of large anthropogenic emissions of precursors, transboundary contributions, a warm and dry aestival climate, and topographical features results in severe cases of photochemical pollution. Chemical transport models (CTMs) are essential tools for studying O3 dynamics and for assessing mitigation measures, but they need to be evaluated specifically for each air basin. In this study, we present an optimisation of the LOTOS-EUROS CTM for the Madrid air basin. Five configurations using different meteorological datasets (from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast, ECMWF; and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF), horizontal resolution and number of vertical levels were compared for July 2016. LOTOS-EUROS responded satisfactorily in the five configurations reproducing observations of surface O3 with notable correlation and reduced bias and errors. However, the best-fit simulations for surface O3 were obtained by increasing spatial resolution and using a large number of vertical levels to reproduce vertical transport phenomena and the formation of reservoir layers. Using the optimal configuration obtained in the evaluation, three characteristic events have been described: recirculation (REC) episodes and northern and southern advection (NAD and SAD, respectively) events. REC events were found to produce the highest O3 due to the reduced ventilation associated with low wind speeds and the contribution of reservoir layers formed by vertical transport of O3 formed near the surface in the previous days of the event. NAD events, usually associated with higher wind speeds, present the lowest ground-level O3 concentrations in the region. During SAD episodes, external contributions along with low wind speeds allow O3 to increase considerably but not as much as in REC events because steady southerly winds disperse local emissions and hinder the formation of reservoir layers.

scholarly journals Urban Air Quality Modeling Using Low-Cost Sensor Network and Data Assimilation in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Santiago Lopez-Restrepo ◽  
Andres Yarce ◽  
Nicolás Pinel ◽  
O.L. Quintero ◽  
Arjo Segers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Monitoring Network ◽  
Correlation Factor ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
High Quality

The use of low air quality networks has been increasing in recent years to study urban pollution dynamics. Here we show the evaluation of the operational Aburrá Valley’s low-cost network against the official monitoring network. The results show that the PM2.5 low-cost measurements are very close to those observed by the official network. Additionally, the low-cost allows a higher spatial representation of the concentrations across the valley. We integrate low-cost observations with the chemical transport model Long Term Ozone Simulation-European Operational Smog (LOTOS-EUROS) using data assimilation. Two different configurations of the low-cost network were assimilated: using the whole low-cost network (255 sensors), and a high-quality selection using just the sensors with a correlation factor greater than 0.8 with respect to the official network (115 sensors). The official stations were also assimilated to compare the more dense low-cost network’s impact on the model performance. Both simulations assimilating the low-cost model outperform the model without assimilation and assimilating the official network. The capability to issue warnings for pollution events is also improved by assimilating the low-cost network with respect to the other simulations. Finally, the simulation using the high-quality configuration has lower error values than using the complete low-cost network, showing that it is essential to consider the quality and location and not just the total number of sensors. Our results suggest that with the current advance in low-cost sensors, it is possible to improve model performance with low-cost network data assimilation.

scholarly journals A cost-effectiveness analysis of water security and water quality: impacts of climate and land-use change on the River Thames system

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 (2002) ◽  
pp. 20120413 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. G. Whitehead ◽  
J. Crossman ◽  
B. B. Balana ◽  
M. N. Futter ◽  
S. Comber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Algal Blooms ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Point Sources ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
River Thames

The catchment of the River Thames, the principal river system in southern England, provides the main water supply for London but is highly vulnerable to changes in climate, land use and population. The river is eutrophic with significant algal blooms with phosphorus assumed to be the primary chemical indicator of ecosystem health. In the Thames Basin, phosphorus is available from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants and from diffuse sources such as agriculture. In order to predict vulnerability to future change, the integrated catchments model for phosphorus (INCA-P) has been applied to the river basin and used to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of mitigation and adaptation strategies. It is shown that scenarios of future climate and land-use change will exacerbate the water quality problems, but a range of mitigation measures can improve the situation. A cost-effectiveness study has been undertaken to compare the economic benefits of each mitigation measure and to assess the phosphorus reductions achieved. The most effective strategy is to reduce fertilizer use by 20% together with the treatment of effluent to a high standard. Such measures will reduce the instream phosphorus concentrations to close to the EU Water Framework Directive target for the Thames.

scholarly journals Sunset–sunrise difference in solar occultation ozone measurements (SAGE II, HALOE, and ACE–FTS) and its relationship to tidal vertical winds

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 829-843 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Sakazaki ◽  
M. Shiotani ◽  
M. Suzuki ◽  
D. Kinnison ◽  
J. M. Zawodny ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Latitude Range ◽  
Solar Occultation ◽  
Vertical Winds

Abstract. This paper contains a comprehensive investigation of the sunset–sunrise difference (SSD, i.e., the sunset-minus-sunrise value) of the ozone mixing ratio in the latitude range of 10° S–10° N. SSD values were determined from solar occultation measurements based on data obtained from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II, the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment–Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE–FTS). The SSD was negative at altitudes of 20–30 km (−0.1 ppmv at 25 km) and positive at 30–50 km (+0.2 ppmv at 40–45 km) for HALOE and ACE–FTS data. SAGE II data also showed a qualitatively similar result, although the SSD in the upper stratosphere was 2 times larger than those derived from the other data sets. On the basis of an analysis of data from the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES) and a nudged chemical transport model (the specified dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model: SD–WACCM), we conclude that the SSD can be explained by diurnal variations in the ozone concentration, particularly those caused by vertical transport by the atmospheric tidal winds. All data sets showed significant seasonal variations in the SSD; the SSD in the upper stratosphere is greatest from December through February, while that in the lower stratosphere reaches a maximum twice: during the periods March–April and September–October. Based on an analysis of SD–WACCM results, we found that these seasonal variations follow those associated with the tidal vertical winds.

scholarly journals Years of life lost due to alcohol-related mortality: a nationwide population study in Poland, 1999-2017

2021 ◽  
pp. 108990
Author(s):  
Ciabiada-Bryła Beata ◽  
Maniecka-Bryła Irena ◽  
Paciej-Gołębiowska Paulina
Keyword(s):  
Population Study ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Related Mortality

scholarly journals The UIUC three-dimensional stratospheric chemical transport model: Description and evaluation of the simulated source gases and ozone

1999 ◽  
Vol 104 (D9) ◽  
pp. 11755-11781 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eugene V. Rozanov ◽  
Vladimir A. Zubov ◽  
Michael E. Schlesinger ◽  
Fanglin Yang ◽  
Natalia G. Andronova
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Simulated Source

scholarly journals Carbon monoxide (CO) and ethane (C<sub>2</sub>H<sub>6</sub>) trends from ground-based solar FTIR measurements at six European stations, comparison and sensitivity analysis with the EMEP model

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 9253-9269 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Angelbratt ◽  
J. Mellqvist ◽  
D. Simpson ◽  
J. E. Jonson ◽  
T. Blumenstock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Transport Model ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Suitable Alternative ◽  
European Model ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Volatile Organic ◽  
Made In

Abstract. Trends in the CO andC2H6 partial columns ~0–15 km) have been estimated from four European ground-based solar FTIR (Fourier Transform InfraRed) stations for the 1996–2006 time period. The CO trends from the four stations Jungfraujoch, Zugspitze, Harestua and Kiruna have been estimated to −0.45 ± 0.16% yr−1, −1.00 ± 0.24% yr−1, −0.62 ± 0.19 % yr−1 and −0.61 ± 0.16% yr−1, respectively. The corresponding trends for C2H6 are −1.51 ± 0.23% yr−1, −2.11 ± 0.30% yr−1, −1.09 ± 0.25% yr−1 and −1.14 ± 0.18% yr−1. All trends are presented with their 2-σ confidence intervals. To find possible reasons for the CO trends, the global-scale EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model has been used in a series of sensitivity scenarios. It is shown that the trends are consistent with the combination of a 20% decrease in the anthropogenic CO emissions seen in Europe and North America during the 1996–2006 period and a 20% increase in the anthropogenic CO emissions in East Asia, during the same time period. The possible impacts of CH4 and biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) are also considered. The European and global-scale EMEP models have been evaluated against the measured CO and C2H6 partial columns from Jungfraujoch, Zugspitze, Bremen, Harestua, Kiruna and Ny-Ålesund. The European model reproduces, on average the measurements at the different sites fairly well and within 10–22% deviation for CO and 14–31% deviation for C2H6. Their seasonal amplitude is captured within 6–35% and 9–124% for CO and C2H6, respectively. However, 61–98% of the CO and C2H6 partial columns in the European model are shown to arise from the boundary conditions, making the global-scale model a more suitable alternative when modeling these two species. In the evaluation of the global model the average partial columns for 2006 are shown to be within 1–9% and 37–50% of the measurements for CO and C2H6, respectively. The global model sensitivity for assumptions made in this paper is also analyzed.

scholarly journals Assessing Douro Vineyards Exposure to Tropospheric Ozone

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 200
Author(s):  
Ana Ascenso ◽  
Carla Gama ◽  
Daniel Blanco-Ward ◽  
Alexandra Monteiro ◽  
Carlos Silveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Sugar Content ◽  
Productivity Loss ◽  
Ozone Exposure ◽  
Vitis Vinifera L ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Wine Production ◽  
Exposure Response

Tropospheric ozone (O3) can strongly damage vegetation. Grapevines (Vitis vinifera L.), in particular, have intermediate sensitivity to ozone. Wine production is an important economic activity, as well as a pillar to the cultural identity of several countries in the world. This study aims to evaluate the risk of Douro vineyards exposure to ozone, by estimating its concentration and deposition in the Demarcated Region of Douro in Portugal. Based on an assessment of the climatology of the area, the years 2003 to 2005 were selected among the hottest years of the recent past, and the chemical transport model CHIMERE was used to estimate the three-dimensional field of ozone and its dry deposition over the Douro region with 1 km2 of horizontal resolution. Model results were validated by comparison with measured data from the European air quality database (AirBase). The exposure indicator AOT40 (accumulated concentration of ozone above 40 ppb) was calculated and an exposure–response function was applied to determine the grapevine risk to ozone exposure. The target value for the protection of vegetation established by the Air Quality Framework Directive was exceeded on most of the Douro region, especially over the Baixo Corgo and Cima Corgo sub-regions. The results of the exposure–response functions suggest that the productivity loss can reach 27% and that the sugar content of the grapes could be reduced by 32%, but these values are affected by the inherent uncertainty of the used methodology.

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