scholarly journals Modelling the impact of reopening schools in early 2021 in the presence of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant and with roll-out of vaccination against COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths ◽  
Robyn Stuart ◽  
Cliff Kerr ◽  
Katherine Rosenfeld ◽  
Dina Mistry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Schools ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Transmission Blocking ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
New Variant ◽  
The Uk ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Roll Out

Abstract Background Following the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in late 2020 and the emergence of the new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, B.1.1.7, a third national lockdown was imposed from January 5, 2021. Following the decline of COVID-19 cases over the remainder of January 2021, it is important to assess the conditions under which reopening schools from early March is likely to lead to resurgence of the epidemic. This study models the impact of a partial national lockdown with social distancing measures enacted in communities and workplaces under different strategies of reopening schools from March 8, 2021 and compares it to the impact of continual full national lockdown remaining until April 19, 2021. Methods We used our previously published model, Covasim, to model the emergence of B.1.1.7 over September 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021. We extended the model to incorporate the impacts of the roll-out of a two-dose vaccine against COVID-19, assuming 200,000 daily doses of the vaccine in people 75 years or older with vaccination that offers 95% reduction in disease acquisition and 10% reduction of transmission blocking. We used the model, calibrated until January 25, 2021, to simulate the impact of a full national lockdown (FNL) with schools closed until April 19, 2021 versus four different partial national lockdown (PNL) scenarios with different elements of schooling open: 1) staggered PNL with primary schools and exam-entry years (years 11 and 13) returning on March 8, 2021 and the rest of the schools years on March 15, 2020; 2) full-return PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021; 3) primary-only PNL with primary schools and exam critical years (Y11 and Y13) going back only on March 8, 2021 with the rest of the secondary schools back on April 19, 2021 and 4) part-Rota PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021 with primary schools remaining open continuously but secondary schools on a two-weekly rota-system with years alternating between a fortnight of face-to-face and remote learning until April 19, 2021. Across all scenarios, we projected the number of new daily cases, cumulative deaths and effective reproduction number R until April 30, 2020. Results Our calibration across different scenarios is consistent with the new variant B.1.1.7 being around 60% more transmissible. Strict social distancing measures, i.e. national lockdowns, are required to contain the spread of the virus and control the hospitalisations and deaths during January and February 2021. The national lockdown will reduce the number of cases by early March levels similar to those seen in October with R also falling and remaining below 1 during the lockdown. Infections start to increase when schools open but if other parts of society remain closed this resurgence is not sufficient to bring R above 1. Reopening primary schools and exam critical years only or having primary schools open continuously with secondary schools on rotas will lead to lower increases in cases and R than if all schools open. Under the current vaccination assumptions and across the set of scenarios considered, R would increase above 1 if society reopens simultaneously, simulated here from April 19, 2021.Findings Our findings suggest that stringent measures are necessary to mitigate the increase in cases and bring R below 1 over January and February 2021. It is plausible that a PNL with schools partially open from March 8, 2021 and the rest of the society remaining closed until April 19, 2021 may keep R below 1, with some increase evident in infections compared to continual FNL until April 19, 2021. Reopening society in mid-April, with the vaccination strategy we model, could push R above 1 and induce a surge in infections, but the effect of vaccination may be able to control this in future depending on the transmission blocking properties of the vaccines.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of reopening schools in early 2021 in the presence of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant and with roll-out of vaccination against COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Panovska-Griffiths ◽  
R.M. Stuart ◽  
C.C. Kerr ◽  
K. Rosenfield ◽  
D. Mistry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Schools ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Transmission Blocking ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
New Variant ◽  
The Uk ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Roll Out

BackgroundFollowing the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in late 2020 and the emergence of the new variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, B.1.1.7, a third national lockdown was imposed from January 5, 2021. Following the decline of COVID-19 cases over the remainder of January 2021, it is important to assess the conditions under which reopening schools from early March is likely to lead to resurgence of the epidemic. This study models the impact of a partial national lockdown with social distancing measures enacted in communities and workplaces under different strategies of reopening schools from March 8, 2021 and compares it to the impact of continual full national lockdown remaining until April 19, 2021.MethodsWe used our previously published model, Covasim, to model the emergence of B.1.1.7 over September 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021. We extended the model to incorporate the impacts of the roll-out of a two-dose vaccine against COVID-19, assuming 200,000 daily doses of the vaccine in people 75 years or older with vaccination that offers 95% reduction in disease acquisition and 10% reduction of transmission blocking. We used the model, calibrated until January 25, 2021, to simulate the impact of a full national lockdown (FNL) with schools closed until April 19, 2021 versus four different partial national lockdown (PNL) scenarios with different elements of schooling open: 1) staggered PNL with primary schools and exam-entry years (years 11 and 13) returning on March 8, 2021 and the rest of the schools years on March 15, 2020; 2) full-return PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021; 3) primary-only PNL with primary schools and exam critical years (Y11 and Y13) going back only on March 8, 2021 with the rest of the secondary schools back on April 19, 2021 and 4) part-Rota PNL with both primary and secondary schools returning on March 8, 2021 with primary schools remaining open continuously but secondary schools on a two-weekly rota-system with years alternating between a fortnight of face-to-face and remote learning until April 19, 2021. Across all scenarios, we projected the number of new daily cases, cumulative deaths and effective reproduction number R until April 30, 2020.ResultsOur calibration across different scenarios is consistent with the new variant B.1.1.7 being around 60% more transmissible. Strict social distancing measures, i.e. national lockdowns, are required to contain the spread of the virus and control the hospitalisations and deaths during January and February 2021. The national lockdown will reduce the number of cases by early March levels similar to those seen in October with R also falling and remaining below 1 during the lockdown. Infections start to increase when schools open but if other parts of society remain closed this resurgence is not sufficient to bring R above 1. Reopening primary schools and exam critical years only or having primary schools open continuously with secondary schools on rotas will lead to lower increases in cases and R than if all schools open. Under the current vaccination assumptions and across the set of scenarios considered, R would increase above 1 if society reopens simultaneously, simulated here from April 19, 2021.FindingsOur findings suggest that stringent measures are necessary to mitigate the increase in cases and bring R below 1 over January and February 2021. It is plausible that a PNL with schools partially open from March 8, 2021 and the rest of the society remaining closed until April 19, 2021 may keep R below 1, with some increase evident in infections compared to continual FNL until April 19, 2021. Reopening society in mid-April, with the vaccination strategy we model, could push R above 1 and induce a surge in infections, but the effect of vaccination may be able to control this in future depending on the transmission blocking properties of the vaccines.

scholarly journals The impact of school reopening on the spread of COVID-19 in England

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200261
Author(s):  
Matt J. Keeling ◽  
Michael J. Tildesley ◽  
Benjamin D. Atkins ◽  
Bridget Penman ◽  
Emma Southall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Secondary Schools ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Older Children ◽  
Developmental Needs ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

By mid-May 2020, cases of COVID-19 in the UK had been declining for over a month; a multi-phase emergence from lockdown was planned, including a scheduled partial reopening of schools on 1 June 2020. Although evidence suggests that children generally display mild symptoms, the size of the school-age population means the total impact of reopening schools is unclear. Here, we present work from mid-May 2020 that focused on the imminent opening of schools and consider what these results imply for future policy. We compared eight strategies for reopening primary and secondary schools in England. Modifying a transmission model fitted to UK SARS-CoV-2 data, we assessed how reopening schools affects contact patterns, anticipated secondary infections and the relative change in the reproduction number, R . We determined the associated public health impact and its sensitivity to changes in social distancing within the wider community. We predicted that reopening schools with half-sized classes or focused on younger children was unlikely to push R above one. Older children generally have more social contacts, so reopening secondary schools results in more cases than reopening primary schools, while reopening both could have pushed R above one in some regions. Reductions in community social distancing were found to outweigh and exacerbate any impacts of reopening. In particular, opening schools when the reproduction number R is already above one generates the largest increase in cases. Our work indicates that while any school reopening will result in increased mixing and infection amongst children and the wider population, reopening schools alone in June 2020 was unlikely to push R above one. Ultimately, reopening decisions are a difficult trade-off between epidemiological consequences and the emotional, educational and developmental needs of children. Into the future, there are difficult questions about what controls can be instigated such that schools can remain open if cases increase. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

scholarly journals An analysis of school absences in England during the COVID-19 pandemic

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Southall ◽  
Alex Holmes ◽  
Edward M. Hill ◽  
Benjamin D. Atkins ◽  
Trystan Leng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Secondary School ◽  
Secondary Schools ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
School Settings ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Tier System ◽  
School Absences ◽  
Analyse Data ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Background The introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the introduction of several control policies to reduce disease spread. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally, all school children returned to the classroom in September. Methods Here, we analyse data on school absences in late 2020 as a result of COVID-19 infection and how that varied through time as other measures in the community were introduced. We utilise data from the Department for Education Educational Settings database and examine how pupil and teacher absences change in both primary and secondary schools. Results Our results show that absences as a result of COVID-19 infection rose steadily following the re-opening of schools in September. Cases in teachers declined during the November lockdown, particularly in regions previously in tier 3, the highest level of control at the time. Cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first 2 weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing. Since the introduction of the tier system, the number of absences with confirmed infection in primary schools was observed to be (markedly) lower than that in secondary schools. In December, we observed a large rise in the number of absences per school in secondary school settings in the South East and London, but such rises were not observed in other regions or in primary school settings. We conjecture that the increased transmissibility of the new variant in these regions may have contributed to this rise in secondary school cases. Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. Conclusions We conclude that there is no significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a substantial role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence.

scholarly journals An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Southall ◽  
Alex Holmes ◽  
Edward M. Hill ◽  
Benjamin D. Atkins ◽  
Trystan Leng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Secondary School ◽  
Secondary Schools ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
School Settings ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
New Variant ◽  
Tier System ◽  
School Absences ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Tier 3

AbstractThe introduction of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, in the UK in early 2020, resulted in the UK government introducing several control policies in order to reduce the spread of disease. As part of these restrictions, schools were closed to all pupils in March (except for vulnerable and key worker children), before re-opening to certain year groups in June. Finally all school children returned to the classroom in September. In this paper, we analyse the data on school absences from September 2020 to December 2020 as a result of COVID-19 infection and how that varied through time as other measures in the community were introduced. We utilise data from the Educational Settings database compiled by the Department for Education and examine how pupil and teacher absences change in both primary and secondary schools.Our results show that absences as a result of COVID-19 infection rose steadily following the re-opening of schools in September. Cases in teachers were seen to decline during the November lockdown, particularly in those regions that had previously been in tier 3, the highest level of control at the time. Cases in secondary school pupils increased for the first two weeks of the November lockdown, before decreasing. Since the introduction of the tier system, the number of absences owing to confirmed infection in primary schools was observed to be significantly lower than in secondary schools across all regions and tiers.In December, we observed a large rise in the number of absences per school in secondary school settings in the South East and Greater London, but such rises were not observed in other regions or in primary school settings. We conjecture that the increased transmissibility of the new variant in these regions may have contributed to this rise in cases in secondary schools. Finally, we observe a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in most regions, with weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools lag behind cases in the surrounding community. We conclude that there is not significant evidence to suggest that schools are playing a significant role in driving spread in the community and that careful monitoring may be required as schools re-open to determine the effect associated with open schools upon community incidence.

scholarly journals Using social contact data to predict and compare the impact of social distancing policies with implications for school re-opening

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Jonathan M Read ◽  
Angela R McLean ◽  
Matt J Keeling ◽  
Leon Danon
Keyword(s):  
Primary School ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Return To School ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Community Mobility ◽  
Contact Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Background Social distancing measures, including school closures, are being used to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission in many countries. Once "lockdown" has driven incidence to low levels, selected activities are being permitted. Re-opening schools is a priority because of the welfare and educational impact of closures on children. However, the impact of school re-opening needs to be considered within the context of other measures. Methods We use social contact data from the UK to predict the impact of social distancing policies on the reproduction number. We calibrate our tool to the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using publicly available death data and Google Community Mobility Reports. We focus on the impact of re-opening schools against a back-drop of wider social distancing easing. Results We demonstrate that pre-collected social contact data, combined with incidence data and Google Community Mobility Reports, is able to provide a time-varying estimate of the reproduction number (R). From an pre-control setting when R=2.7 (95%CI 2.5, 2.9), we estimate that the minimum reproduction number that can be achieved in the UK without limiting household contacts is 0.45 (95%CI:0.41-0.50); in the absence of other changes, preventing leisure contacts has a smaller impact (R=2.0,95%CI:1.8-2.4) than preventing work contacts (R=1.5,95%CI:1.4-1.7). We find that following lockdown (when R=0.7 (95% CI 0.6, 0.8)), opening primary schools in isolation has a modest impact on transmission R=0.83 (95%CI:0.77-0.90) but that high adherence to other measures is needed. Opening secondary schools as well as primary school is predicted to have a larger overall impact (R=0.95,95%CI:0.85-1.07), however transmission could still be controlled with effective contact tracing. Conclusions Our findings suggest that primary school children can return to school without compromising transmission, however other measures, such as social distancing and contract tracing, are required to control transmission if all age groups are to return to school. Our tool provides a mapping from policies to the reproduction number and can be used by policymakers to compare the impact of social-easing measures, dissect mitigation strategies and support careful localized control strategies.

The RUMA Alliance targets: an overview

Livestock ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 176-179
Author(s):  
Chris Lloyd
Keyword(s):  
Task Force ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Antibiotic Use ◽  
Codes Of Practice ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Ongoing Support ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Roll Out

The Responsible Use of Medicines in Agriculture Alliance (RUMA) was established to promote the highest standards of food safety, animal health and animal welfare in the British livestock industry. It has a current focus to deliver on the Government objective of identifying sector-specific targets for the reduction, refinement or replacement of antibiotics in animal agriculture. The creation and roll out of sector specific targets in 2017 through the RUMA Targets Task Force, has helped focus activity across the UK livestock sectors to achieve a 50% reduction in antibiotic use since 2014. This has been realised principally through voluntary multi-sector collaboration, cross sector initiatives, codes of practice, industry body support and farm assurance schemes. This article provides an overview of RUMA's work to date providing insight into the methods used to create the targets, why they are so important, the impact they are having and how ongoing support and robust data are vital components in achieving the latest set of targets.

scholarly journals Domestic and international mobility trends in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of facebook data

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry E. R. Shepherd ◽  
Florence S. Atherden ◽  
Ho Man Theophilus Chan ◽  
Alexandra Loveridge ◽  
Andrew J. Tatem
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
International Mobility ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies, future pandemic planning and in providing broader insights on the population geography of the country. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying in near-real time the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods Here we explore patterns of change in densities, domestic and international flows and co-location of Facebook users in the UK from March 2020 to March 2021. Results We find substantial heterogeneities across time and region, with large changes observed compared to pre-pademic patterns. The impacts of periods of lockdown on distances travelled and flow volumes are evident, with each showing variations, but some significant reductions in co-location rates. Clear differences in multiple metrics of mobility are seen in central London compared to the rest of the UK, with each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showing significant deviations from England at times. Moreover, the impacts of rapid changes in rules on international travel to and from the UK are seen in substantial fluctuations in traveller volumes by destination. Conclusions While questions remain about the representativeness of the Facebook data, previous studies have shown strong correspondence with census-based data and alternative mobility measures, suggesting that findings here are valuable for guiding strategies.

How did Autistic Children, and their Parents, Experience School Transition during the COVID-19 Pandemic?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aimee Code ◽  
Umar Toseeb ◽  
Kathryn Asbury ◽  
Laura Fox
Keyword(s):  
School Transition ◽  
School Closure ◽  
School Transitions ◽  
Autistic Children ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
New School ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and resultant school closures, social distancing measures, and restrictions placed on routine activities, the start of the academic year in September 2020 was a unique time for those transitioning to a new school. This study aimed to explore the experiences of parents who supported autistic children making a school transition in 2020, and to examine what impact parents perceived the COVID-19 pandemic had on their child’s school transition. Emphasis was placed on identifying facilitating factors that had benefitted school transitions, and barriers, which had negatively impacted these experiences. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with 13 parents of autistic children in the UK. Reflexive thematic analysis was carried out to identify themes in interview data. Parents reported a variety of experiences, and factors that were perceived as facilitatory to some were observed to be barriers by others. For some parents, the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted aspects of school transitions. For example, school closure in March 2020, being unable to visit their child’s new school, and social distancing measures were discussed as being barriers to an easy transition. However, other parents identified these factors as being facilitatory for their child or reported that these circumstances created opportunities to approach the school transition in a unique, improved manner. This paper sheds light on the heterogeneity of experiences and perceptions of parents of autistic children, and highlights the need to examine the impact of COVID-19 on school transitions, including practices which may be advantageous to retain.

Social distancing in a social therapy environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 113-127
Author(s):  
Geraldine Ann Akerman ◽  
Emily Jones ◽  
Harry Talbot ◽  
Gemma Grahame-Wright
Keyword(s):  
Social Isolation ◽  
Current Practice ◽  
Social Therapy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Emotional Environment ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to describe the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on a prison-based therapeutic community (TC). Design/methodology/approach The paper takes the form of a case study where the authors reflect on their current practice, using the findings of research on social isolation and the overarching TC principles to explore the effect of the pandemic on the TC at HMP Grendon. The authors consider how the residents and staff adjusted to the change as the parameters changed when the social distancing rules were imposed and how they adapted to the prolonged break to therapy. Sections in the paper were written by a resident and an operational member of staff. The authors conclude with their thoughts on how to manage the consequences the lockdown has brought and start to think about what returning to “normality” might mean. Findings The paper describes the adjustments made by the residents and staff as the UK Government imposed the lockdown. The authors, including a resident and an operational member of staff comment on the psychological and practical impact these adjustments had. The thought is given to the idea of “recovery”, returning to “normality” and how this study can be best managed once restrictions are lifted. Research limitations/implications At the time of writing, there are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 at HMP Grendon. The measures and commitment from all staff and residents in the prison to keep the prison environment safe may in part account for this. This paper explores the effects of lockdown on the emotional environment in a TC and highlights the consequences that social isolation can have on any individual. To the authors’ knowledge, there is currently no research undertaken on the impact of lockdown/social isolation on a TC. This research would be useful, as the authors postulate from reflections on current practice that the effects of the lockdown will be greater in a social therapy environment. Originality/value HMP Grendon started in 1962, as this time there have been no significant events that have meant the suspension of therapy for such a sustained period. It is, therefore, important that the impact of such is considered and reflected upon.

scholarly journals Personalisation schemes in social care and inequality: review of the evidence and early theorising

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Carey ◽  
Brad Crammond ◽  
Eleanor Malbon
Keyword(s):  
Social Services ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Aged Care ◽  
Service Market ◽  
Policy Paradigm ◽  
Improved Outcomes ◽  
The Uk ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Personalisation is a growing international policy paradigm that aims to create both improved outcomes for individuals, and reduce fiscal pressures on government, by giving greater choice and control to citizens accessing social services. In personalisation schemes, individuals purchase services from a ‘service market’ using individual budgets or vouchers given to them by governments. Personalisation schemes have grown in areas such as disability and aged care across Europe, the UK and Australia. There is a wealth of evidence in public health and health care that demonstrates that practically all forms of social services, programs and interventions produce unequal benefit depending on socio-economic position. Research has found that skills required to successfully negotiate service systems leads to disproportionate benefit to the ‘middle class. With an unprecedented emphasis on individual skills, personalisation has even greater potential to widen and entrench social inequalities. Despite the increase in numbers of people now accessing services through such schemes, there has been no examination of how different social groups benefit from these schemes, how this widens and entrenches social inequities, and – in turn – what can be done to mitigate this. Methods This article presents a meta-review of the evidence on personalisation and inequality. A qualitative meta-analysis was undertaking of existing research into personalisation schemes in social services to identify whether and how such schemes are impacting different socio-economic groups. Results No research was identified which seeks to understand the impact of personalisation schemes on inequality. However, a number of ‘proxies’ for social class were identified, such as education, income, and employment, which had a bearing on outcome. We provide a theoretical framework for understanding why this is occurring, using concepts drawn from Bourdieu. Conclusion Personalisation schemes are likely to be entrenching, and potentially expanding, social inequalities. More attention needs to be given to this aspect of personal budgets by policymakers and researchers.

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