scholarly journals Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic: A Data-Driven Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khondoker Nazmoon Nabi
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Trust Region ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Asymptomatic Carriers ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract In this paper, a new Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic Infectious-Asymptomatic Infectious-Quarantined-Hospitalized-Recovered-Dead (SEIDIUQHRD) deterministic compartmental model has been proposed and calibrated for interpreting the transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The purpose of this study is to give a tentative prediction of the epidemic peak for Russia, Brazil, India and Bangladesh which could become the next COVID-19 hotspots in no time by using a Trust-region-reflective (TRR) algorithm which one of the well-known real data fitting techniques. Based on the publicly available epidemiological data from late January until 10 May, it has been estimated that the number of daily new symptomatic infectious cases for the above mentioned countries could reach the peak around the beginning of June with the peak size of 15, 774 (95% CI, 13,814-17,734) symptomatic infectious cases in Russia, 26, 449 (95% CI, 23,489-29,409) cases in Brazil, 9, 504 (95% CI, 8,378-10,630) cases in India and 2,209 (95% CI, 1,878-2,540) cases in Bangladesh. As of May 11, 2020, incorporating the infectiousness capability of asymptomatic carriers, our analysis estimates the value of the basic reproduction number (R0) as of May 11, 2020 was found to be 4.234 (95% CI, 3.764-4.7) in Russia, 5.347 (95% CI, 4.737-5.95) in Brazil, 5.218 (95% CI, 4.56-5.81)in India, 4.649 (95% CI, 4.17-5.12) in the United Kingdom and 3.53 (95% CI, 3.12-3.94) in Bangladesh. Moreover, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coeffcient (LHS-PRCC) which is a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method is applied to quantify the uncertainty of our model mechanisms, which elucidates that for Russia, the recovery rate of undetected asymptomatic carriers, the rate of getting home-quarantined or self-quarantined and the transition rate from quarantined class to susceptible class are the most influential parameters, whereas the rate of getting home-quarantined or self-quarantined and the inverse of the COVID-19 incubation period are highly sensitive parameters in Brazil, India, Bangladesh and the United Kingdom which could signicantly affect the transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus. Our analysis also suggests that relaxing social distancing restrictions too quickly could exacerbate the epidemic outbreak in the above-mentioned countries.

scholarly journals FORECASTING COVID-19 PANDEMIC: A DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khondoker Nazmoon Nabi
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Trust Region ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

In this paper, a new Susceptible-Exposed-Symptomatic Infectious-Asymptomatic Infectious-Quarantined-Hospitalized-Recovered-Dead (SEIDIUQHRD) deterministic compartmental model has been proposed and calibrated for describing the transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19). A calibration process is executed through the solution of an inverse problem with the help of a Trust-Region-Reflective algorithm, used to determine the best parameter values that would fit the model response. The purpose of this study is to give a tentative prediction of the epidemic peak for Russia, Brazil, India and Bangladesh which could become the next COVID-19 hotspots in no time. Based on the publicly available epidemiological data from late January until 10 May, it has been estimated that the number of daily new symptomatic infectious cases for the above mentioned countries could reach the peak around the beginning of June with the peak size of ≈15,774 symptomatic infectious cases in Russia, ≈26,449 cases in Brazil, ≈9,504 cases in India and ≈2,209 cases in Bangladesh. Based on our analysis, the estimated value of the basic reproduction number (R0) as of May 11, 2020 was found to be ≈4.234 in Russia, ≈5.347 in Brazil, ≈5.218 in India, ≈4.649 in the United Kingdom and ≈3.5 in Bangladesh. Moreover, with an aim to quantify the uncertainty of our model parameters, Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) which is a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method is applied which elucidates that, for Russia, the recovery rate of undetected asymptomatic carriers, the rate of getting home-quarantined or self-quarantined and the transition rate from quarantined class to susceptible class are the most influential parameters, whereas the rate of getting home-quarantined or self-quarantined and the inverse of the COVID-19 incubation period are highly sensitive parameters in Brazil, India, Bangladesh and the United Kingdom which could significantly affect the transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus. Our analysis also suggests that relaxing social distancing restrictions too quickly could exacerbate the epidemic outbreak in the above mentioned countries.

scholarly journals Continuing Education through COVID-19 Crisis in the United Kingdom: A Swiss Trainee Abroad

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (01) ◽  
pp. e25-e29
Author(s):  
Alicja Zientara
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Surgery ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Continuing Education ◽  
Personal Perspective ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Swiss Society ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Cardiac Surgeon ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe work has been awarded in July 2020 with the “Special Swiss Young Cardiac Surgeon Award 2020” by the Swiss Society of Cardiac Surgery (Schweizerische Gesellschaft für Herz- und thorakale Gefässchirurgie [SGHC-SSCC]) and reflects a personal perspective from a Swiss trainee experiencing the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic during her fellowship in London.

scholarly journals Understanding the possible origin and genotyping of first Bangladeshi SARS-CoV-2 strain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. S. M. Rubayet Ul Alam ◽  
M. Rafiul Islam ◽  
M. Shaminur Rahman ◽  
Ovinu Kibria Islam ◽  
M. Anwar Hossain
Keyword(s):  
Complete Genome ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Genome Data ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Comprehensive Picture ◽  
History Of ◽  
Probable Origin ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Uk

The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, causes the unfathomable pandemic in the history of humankind. Bangladesh is also a victim of this critical situation. To investigate the genomic features of the pathogen, the first complete genome of the virus has very recently been published. Therefore, the long awaiting questions regarding the possible origin and typing of the strain(s) can now be answered. Here, we endeavor to mainly discuss the published reports or online-accessed data (results) regarding those issues and presented a comprehensive picture of the typing of the virus alongside the probable origin of the sub-clade containing Bangladeshi strain. Our observation suggested that this strain might have originated from the United Kingdom (UK) or other European countries epidemiologically linked to the UK. According to different genotyping classification schemes, this strain belongs to A2a clade under G major clade, is of B and/or L type, and is a SARS-CoV-2a sub-strain. The complete genome data will surely increase in the forwarding days in Bangladesh. However, a mass regional sequencing approach targeting the partial or complete genome can link the epidemiological data and may help in further clinical interventions.

scholarly journals Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (14) ◽  
pp. 4964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Maugeri ◽  
Martina Barchitta ◽  
Sebastiano Battiato ◽  
Antonella Agodi
Keyword(s):  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Contact Precautions ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0–34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23–42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70–89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control.

scholarly journals Reconstructing the origin and transmission dynamics of the 1967–68 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

2013 ◽  
Vol 20 ◽  
pp. 230-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline F. Wright ◽  
Nick J. Knowles ◽  
Antonello Di Nardo ◽  
David J. Paton ◽  
Daniel T. Haydon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Foot And Mouth

scholarly journals How did the COVID-19 pandemic change the practice of Paediatric Endoscopists in Europe?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilektra Athiana ◽  
Corinne Légeret ◽  
Patrick Bontems ◽  
Luigi Dall'Oglio ◽  
Paola De Angelis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
European Society ◽  
Personal Protective Equipment ◽  
Protective Equipment ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Endoscopic Procedures ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Time Point

Abstract Background: As endoscopists are at risk to get infected by the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 during endoscopic procedures, the European Society for Paediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition (ESPGHAN) published recommendations regarding protection for the paediatric endoscopist and endoscopy suite staff. The aim of this survey was to investigate whether European paediatric gastroenterology centres applied the recommendations and how this extraordinary situation was handled by the different centres.Results: Twelve Paediatric European gastroenterology centers (from Belgium, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, and United Kingdom) participated. Nine centres (75%) screened their patients for a possible COVID-19 infection before the procedure, the same amount of hospitals changed their practice based on the ESPGHAN recommendations. 67% of the centres reduced the staff in the endoscopy suite, 83% of the units used FFP2/3 masks and protective goggles during the procedure and 75% wore waterproof gowns.Conclusion: The global situation caused by COVID-19 changed so rapidly, and hospitals had to react immediately to protect staff and patients and could not wait for guidelines to be published. Furthermore, uniform guidelines could not be applied by all European hospitals at a certain time point of the viral spread, as different regions of Europe were not only affected differently by COVID-19, but also had different access to personal protective equipment.

scholarly journals The Early Transmission Dynamics of H1N1pdm Influenza in the United Kingdom

PLoS Currents ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. RRN1130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azra Ghani ◽  
Marc Baguelin ◽  
Jamie Griffin ◽  
Stefan Flasche ◽  
Albert Jan van Hoek ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The United Kingdom

scholarly journals Stability and global sensitivity analysis of the transmission dynamics of malaria with relapse and ignorant infected humans

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves Tinda Mangongo ◽  
Joseph-Désiré Kyemba Bukweli ◽  
Justin Dupar Busili Kampempe ◽  
Rostin Matendo Mabela ◽  
Justin Manango Wazute Munganga
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Global Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Global Sensitivity ◽  
Partial Rank Correlation

Abstract In this paper we present a more realistic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of malaria by extending the classical SEIRS scheme and the model of Hai-Feng Huo and Guang-Ming Qiu [21] by adding the ignorant infected humans compartment. We analyze the global asymptotically stabilities of the model by the use of the basic reproduction number R_0 and we prove that when R_0≦1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. That is malaria dies out in the population. When R_0>1, there exists a co-existing unique endemic equilibrium which is globally asymptotically stable. The global sensitivity analysis have been done through the partial rank correlation coefficient using the samples generated by the use of latin hypercube sampling method and shows that the most influence parameters in the spread of malaria are the proportion θ of infectious humans who recover and the recovery rate γ of infectious humans. In order to eradicate malaria, we have to decrease the number of ignorant infected humans by testing peoples and treat them. Numerical simulations show that malaria can be also controlled or eradicated by increasing the recovery rate γ of infectious humans, decreasing the number of ignorant infected humans and decreasing the average number n of mosquito bites.

scholarly journals The Novel Coronavirus (nCoV) – A Worldwide Threat

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Július Rajčáni ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Pathological State ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Information Selection ◽  
Related Disease ◽  
Actual Nature ◽  
Virion Structure ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Given

This review aims to asses the data from recently published literature related to the novel Coronavirus (nCoV), which had been isolated in the automn of 2019. Similarly to the classical Coronavirus (cCoV) isolated nearly 18 years ago, the nCoV has also emerged in China, though in a different region of the same country. The majority of papers published in the current year 2020, clearly demonstrates the actual nature of the given topics. Despite of the unusual criteria used for information selection, all the collected data have turned up useful as the virion structure and its properties concerns. Neither were omitted the clinical signs of virus related disease(s) nor understanding the spread of any other pathological state(s) occurring in infected patients. Last but not least, the presented epidemiological data contribute to understanding the spread of nCoV in human community(ies).

scholarly journals Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the Diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenji Mizumoto ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractAn outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January-February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ∼11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1-7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.

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