scholarly journals A model and predictions for COVID-19 considering population behavior and vaccination

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Usherwood ◽  
Zachary LaJoie ◽  
Vikas Srivast
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Time History ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
History Of ◽  
Approach Zero ◽  
And Behavior

Abstract The effect of vaccination coupled with the behavioral response of the population is not well understood. Our model incorporates two important dynamically varying population behaviors: level of caution and sense of safety. Level of caution increases with infectious cases, while an increasing sense of safety with increased vaccination lowers precautions. Our model accurately reproduces the complete time history of COVID-19 infections for various regions of the United States. We propose a parameter d_I as a direct measure of a population’s caution against an infectious disease that can be obtained from the infectious cases. The model provides quantitative measures of highest disease transmission rate, effective transmission rate, and cautionary behavior. We predict future COVID-19 trends in the United States accounting for vaccine rollout and behavior. Although a high rate of vaccination is critical to quickly ending the pandemic, a return towards pre-pandemic social behavior due to increased sense of safety during vaccine deployment can cause an alarming surge in infections. Our results predict that at the current rate of vaccination, the new infection cases for COVID-19 in the United States will approach zero by August 2021. This model can be used for other regions and for future epidemics and pandemics.

scholarly journals A model and predictions for COVID-19 considering population behavior and vaccination

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Usherwood ◽  
Zachary LaJoie ◽  
Vikas Srivastava
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Time History ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
History Of ◽  
Approach Zero ◽  
And Behavior

AbstractThe effect of vaccination coupled with the behavioral response of the population is not well understood. Our model incorporates two important dynamically varying population behaviors: level of caution and sense of safety. Level of caution increases with infectious cases, while an increasing sense of safety with increased vaccination lowers precautions. Our model accurately reproduces the complete time history of COVID-19 infections for various regions of the United States. We propose a parameter $$d_I$$ d I as a direct measure of a population’s caution against an infectious disease that can be obtained from the infectious cases. The model provides quantitative measures of highest disease transmission rate, effective transmission rate, and cautionary behavior. We predict future COVID-19 trends in the United States accounting for vaccine rollout and behavior. Although a high rate of vaccination is critical to quickly ending the pandemic, a return towards pre-pandemic social behavior due to increased sense of safety during vaccine deployment can cause an alarming surge in infections. Our results predict that at the current rate of vaccination, the new infection cases for COVID-19 in the United States will approach zero by August 2021. This model can be used for other regions and for future epidemics and pandemics.

scholarly journals On the history of medicine in the United States, theory, health insurance, and psychiatry: an interview with Charles Rosenberg

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-220
Author(s):  
Charles Rosenberg ◽  
Rafael Mantovani
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
Health Insurance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Historical Research ◽  
Current Debate ◽  
Behavior Control ◽  
History Of ◽  
And Behavior

Abstract An interview with Charles Rosenberg conducted by Rafael Mantovani in November 2013 that addressed four topics. It first focused on the way in which Rosenberg perceived trends and directions in historical research on medicine in the United States during the second half of the twentieth century. The second focus was on his experience with other important historians who wrote about public health. Thirdly, he discussed his impressions about the current debate on health policy in his country. Finally, the last part explores some themes related to psychiatry and behavior control that have appeared in a number of his articles.

The Radical Right in the United States of America

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Parker
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United States Of America ◽  
The United States ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
Tea Party ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
John Birch Society ◽  
History Of ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
And Behavior

This chapter examines the attitudes, beliefs, and behavior of the reactionary right in the United States. It seeks to provide a better understanding of what motivates the reactionary right, and how such motivations inform the policy preferences and behavior of its constituents. However, the paucity of data restricts the analysis of the reactionary right to a fifty-year span, from the 1960s through the Tea Party. It begins with an overview of reactionary thought, including a brief history of reactionary movements through the mid-twentieth century. It then conducts an assessment of the immediate predecessor of the Tea Party: the John Birch Society. This is followed by an analysis of the contemporary reactionary movement in the United States: the Tea Party, and the movement responsible for the election of Donald Trump. The conclusion also briefly touches upon the continuities (and discontinuities) between the Tea Party and its European counterparts.

History of the American Association for Correctional Psychology

2005 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
Curt R. Bartol ◽  
Naomi J. Freeman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
American Association ◽  
The United States ◽  
Scholarly Journal ◽  
Correctional Psychology ◽  
Entire List ◽  
History Of ◽  
And Behavior

The history of the American Association for Correctional Psychology (AACP) is traced from 1954 to the present. The article offers some insights into the beginnings and development of correctional psychology in the United States, including those individuals most influential in that development. The history of AACP publications is also outlined, including the newsletter Correctional Psychologist and the scholarly journal Criminal Justice and Behavior. An entire list of AACP presidents is provided.

Disrupting the Cycle of Incarceration

2020 ◽  
pp. 101-118
Author(s):  
Alonzo L. Plough
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Criminal Justice System ◽  
Building Block ◽  
Mass Incarceration ◽  
The United States ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Communities Of Color ◽  
History Of ◽  
Multiple Levels

This chapter explores the root causes for the high rate of incarceration in the United States and its health-damaging consequences. Reducing incarceration levels, particularly in communities of color and disadvantage, is a vital building block of a Culture of Health. Addressing mass incarceration in the United States, however, requires a range of approaches and tactics that target multiple levels of the complex criminal justice system. The chapter then describes both broad-based solutions and targeted local efforts to break the cycle of incarceration at various points: before arrest, within prison walls, after release, and across generations. Changing the narrative is a feature of many efforts, as activists find new ways to talk about poverty, crime, and prison, and adults with a history of incarceration commit to renewing bonds with their children.

History of Frontal Lobotomy in the United States, 1935-1955

Neurosurgery ◽  
1984 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 765-772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kucharski Anastasia
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Psychiatric Illness ◽  
Surgical Techniques ◽  
The United States ◽  
Obsessive Compulsive ◽  
Compulsive Disorder ◽  
Emotional Component ◽  
History Of ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Frontal Lobotomy

Abstract The history of frontal lobotomy is a dramatic chapter in the development of medical treatment. Based on experimentally induced lesions in primates, lobotomies were introduced as procedures designed to modify the affect and behavior of hospitalized mental patients. Within 10 years, variations in surgical techniques were numerous, and the treatment was an accepted alternative in many hospitals in the United States. Patients on whom the operation was performed had a variety of diagnoses, including schizophrenia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and affective illness. With the introduction of neuroleptic medication and behavior and milieu therapies, this surgical treatment for the emotional component of psychiatric illness fell into disuse. As its legacy to medicine, frontal lobotomy provided neuroanatomical information from which contemporary biological theories of behavior developed.

scholarly journals Modeling layered non-pharmaceutical interventions against SARS-CoV-2 in the United States with Corvid

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis L. Chao ◽  
Assaf P. Oron ◽  
Devabhaktuni Srikrishna ◽  
Michael Famulare
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Family Members ◽  
The United States ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Effective Option ◽  
History Of ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractBackgroundThe novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has rapidly spread across the globe and is poised to cause millions of deaths worldwide. There are currently no proven pharmaceutical treatments, and vaccines are likely over a year away. At present, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the only effective option to reduce transmission of the virus, but it is not clear how to deploy these potentially expensive and disruptive measures. Modeling can be used to understand the potential effectiveness of NPIs for both suppression and mitigation efforts.Methods and FindingsWe developed Corvid, an adaptation of the agent-based influenza model called FluTE to SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To demonstrate features of the model relevant for studying the effects of NPIs, we simulated transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a synthetic population representing a metropolitan area in the United States. Transmission in the model occurs in several settings, including at home, at work, and in schools. We simulated several combinations of NPIs that targeted transmission in these settings, such as school closures and work-from-home policies. We also simulated three strategies for testing and isolating symptomatic cases. For our demonstration parameters, we show that testing followed by home isolation of ascertained cases reduced transmission by a modest amount. We also show how further reductions may follow by isolating cases in safe facilities away from susceptible family members or by quarantining all family members to prevent transmission from likely infections that have yet to manifest.ConclusionsModels that explicitly include settings where individuals interact such as the home, work, and school are useful for studying the effectiveness of NPIs, as these are more dependent on community structure than pharmaceutical interventions such as vaccination. Corvid can be used to help evaluate complex combinations of interventions, although there is no substitute for real-world observations. Our results on NPI effectiveness summarize the behavior of the model for an assumed set of parameters for demonstration purposes. Model results can be sensitive to the assumptions made about disease transmission and the natural history of the disease, both of which are not yet sufficiently characterized for SARS-CoV-2 for quantitative modeling. Models of SARS-CoV-2 transmission will need to be updated as the pathogen becomes better-understood.

scholarly journals Application of the Logistic Model to the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa and the United States: Correlations and Predictions

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H Roberts
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Time History ◽  
The United States ◽  
Marginal Fit ◽  
The Us ◽  
History Of ◽  
Simple Logistic ◽  
Internal Comparison

We apply the simple logistic model to the four waves of COVID-19 taking place in South Africa over the period 2020~January~1 through 2022 January 11. We show that this model provides an excellent fit to the time history of three of the four waves. We then derive a theoretical correlation between the growth rate of each wave and its duration, and demonstrate that it is well obeyed by the South Africa data. We then turn to the data for the United States. As shown by Roberts (2020a, 2020b), the basic logistic model provides only a marginal fit to the early data. Here we break the data into six "waves," and treat each one separately. For four of the six the logistic model is useful, and we present full results. We then ask if these data provide a way to predict the length of the ongoing Omicron wave in the US (commonly called "wave 4," but the sixth wave as we have broken the data up). Comparison of these data to those from South Arica, and internal comparison of the US data, suggests that this last wave will die out by about 2022-January-20.

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