Application of the Logistic Model to the COVID-19 Pandemic in South Africa and the United States: Correlations and Predictions

We apply the simple logistic model to the four waves of COVID-19 taking place in South Africa over the period 2020~January~1 through 2022 January 11. We show that this model provides an excellent fit to the time history of three of the four waves. We then derive a theoretical correlation between the growth rate of each wave and its duration, and demonstrate that it is well obeyed by the South Africa data. We then turn to the data for the United States. As shown by Roberts (2020a, 2020b), the basic logistic model provides only a marginal fit to the early data. Here we break the data into six "waves," and treat each one separately. For four of the six the logistic model is useful, and we present full results. We then ask if these data provide a way to predict the length of the ongoing Omicron wave in the US (commonly called "wave 4," but the sixth wave as we have broken the data up). Comparison of these data to those from South Arica, and internal comparison of the US data, suggests that this last wave will die out by about 2022-January-20.

Varieties of dispositional essentialism about natural laws

An important task for metaphysicians and philosophers of science is to account for laws of nature – in particular, how they distinguish themselves from ‘mere’ regularities, and the modal force they are endowed with, ‘natural necessity’. Dispositional essentialism about laws (for short: ‘essentialism’) is roughly the view that laws distinguish themselves by being grounded in the essences of natural entities (e.g. kinds, properties). This paper does not primarily concern how essentialism compares to its main rivals – Humeanism and Armstrongeanism. Rather, it distinguishes and comparatively assesses various brands of essentialism – which mainly differ as to where exactly they take laws to find their essentialist sources (e.g. in particular entities, like electrons, or in larger pluralities of entities, or in the world as a whole), and what they take to be the targets of laws, namely what they apply to. Yet, this internal comparison is not unrelated to the more general debate about laws: the main criteria with which I compare these essentialist views concern how they can deal with some of the main objections faced by essentialism in general (the modal status it typically attributes to laws, which some think is too strong; and its alleged incapacity to account for the most 'general' laws, like conservation laws), and how they can keep what is arguably the main intuitive advantage of essentialism over its rivals (the fact that, on this view, things “govern themselves”). Thus, the paper also concerns the relative position of essentialism in the larger debate about laws – ultimately bringing support to it.

The Role of Cognitive Patterns in Modelling Reality by Means of Natural Language (The Case Study of the English Cognitive Pattern “Cleanness / Dirtiness”)

In the field of cognitive linguistics it is accepted that, before developing its capacity for abstract and theoretical thought, the human mind went through the stage of reflecting reality through concrete images and thus has inherited old cognitive patterns. Even abstract notions of the modern civilization are based on traditional concrete images, and it is all fixed in natural language units. By way of illustration, the author analyzes the cognitive pattern “сleanness / dirtiness” as a constituent part of the English linguoculture, looking at the whole range of its verbal realization and demonstrating its influence on language-based thinking and modeling of reality. Comparing meanings of language units with their inner forms enabled the author to establish the connection between abstract notions and concrete images within cognitive patterns. Using the method of internal comparison and applying the results of etymological reconstruction of language units’ inner form made it possible to see how the world is viewed by representatives of the English linguoculture. Apparently, in the English linguoculture images of cleanness / dirtiness symbolize mainly two thematic areas: that of morality and that of renewal. Since every ethnic group has its own axiological dominants (key values) that determine the expressiveness of verbal invectives, one can draw the conclusion that people perceive and comprehend world fragments through the prism of mental stereo-types fixed in the inner form of language units. Sometimes, in relation to specific language units, a conflict arises between the inner form which retains traditional thinking and a meaning that reflects modern reality. Still, linguoculture is a constantly evolving entity, and its de-velopment entails breaking established stereotypes and creating new ones. Linguistically, the victory of the new over the old is manifested in the “dying out” of the verbal support for pre-vious cognitive patterns, which leads to “reprogramming” (“recoding”) of linguoculture rep-resentatives’ mentality.

Improving Debt Literacy by 2/3 Through Four Simple Infographics Requires Numeracy and Not Focusing on Negatives of Debt

Borrowing behavior may be more resistant to formal educational treatments than other financial behaviors. In order to study the process and results of infographics-based debt education, we used eye tracking technology (SMI RED 500 Hz) to monitor the oculomotor behavior of 108 participants (68 females) aged 18 to 60 who were shown 4 infographics. The study used an experimental design with repeated measures and an internal comparison group. We also used scales of debt literacy and a set of information literacy scales: numerical, graph, and linguistic. The results confirm that short-term infographics-based debt education can improve debt literacy significantly. The difference in processing the educational contents that were not known to participants before the educational session suggests that participants with better information literacy make more considerable debt literacy progress. Specifically, we found that numerical literacy is a significant mediator of debt education results, depending on the initial level of debt literacy; this relation is moderated by the focus of visual attention on negatives of debt. We found no significant relationship between debt literacy education results and those of graph and linguistic literacy.

Photosynthetic Properties of Miscanthus condensatus at Volcanically Devastated Sites on Miyake-jima Island

How photosynthetic-related leaf traits of non-nitrogen (N)-fixing pioneer species respond to extreme habitat conditions of primary succession is still not well-elucidated, especially in volcanically N-deplete habitats. The effect of N-deplete soil on photosynthetic-related leaf traits can provide a basis for predicting how plants adjust their strategies to adapt to such habitats. To examine the responses of leaf traits to extreme conditions, we investigated Miscanthus condensatus (a non-N-fixing C4 pioneer grass) which grows on a volcanically devastated area on Miyake-jima Island, Japan, in which the volcanic ash has been deposited for 17–18 years since the 2000-year eruption. Leaf N content (Narea), light-saturated photosynthetic rate (Amax), and photosynthetic N use efficiency (PNUE) in three contrasting study sites: bare land (BL), shrub land gap (SLG), and shrub land under canopy (SLUC) were determined. Results indicated that compared to previous studies and internal comparison of Miyake Island, M. condensatus in BL was able to maintain a relatively high Amax, Narea and PNUE. The higher Amax was in part a result of the higher PNUE. This is a characteristic necessary for its successful growth in N-deplete soils. These results suggest that M. condensatus has photosynthetic-related advantages for adaptation to volcanically N-deplete habitats.

Mining the Sea

Using primary and secondary historical data, descriptive time-series data, and site observations, this study unpacks the developmental history of one of the United States' oldest, largest, and still working fisheries. This study uses narrative analysis to explore how processes of commodification and the institutional workings of capitalist food regimes drove specific developmental outcomes. Internal comparison across periods enables an analysis of why the fishery declined in recent decades. The case also reveals important dynamics of the capitalist world food system and demonstrates how intersectional considerations, particularly the intersection of race and class dynamics, can bolster the “tragedy of the commodity” theoretical framework. The study thus tests and expands on that framework by including the considerations of cross-cutting inequalities and the world food system. Overall, this study demonstrates how the demands of generalized commodity production, in conjunction with the institutional parameters of a world capitalist food system, link processes of development across terrestrial and aquatic food systems. Furthermore, the internal comparison elucidates the socio-structural factors that drove the severe decline of the 170-year-old Atlantic menhaden fishery.

Tables of Toxicity of Botulinum and Tetanus Neurotoxins

Tetanus and botulinum neurotoxins are the most poisonous substances known, so much so as to be considered for a possible terrorist use. At the same time, botulinum neurotoxin type A1 is successfully used to treat a variety of human syndromes characterized by hyperactive cholinergic nerve terminals. The extreme toxicity of these neurotoxins is due to their neurospecificity and to their metalloprotease activity, which results in the deadly paralysis of tetanus and botulism. Recently, many novel botulinum neurotoxins and some botulinum-like toxins have been discovered. This large number of toxins differs in terms of toxicity and biological activity, providing a potential goldmine for novel therapeutics and for new molecular tools to dissect vesicular trafficking, fusion, and exocytosis. The scattered data on toxicity present in the literature require a systematic organization to be usable by scientists and clinicians. We have assembled here the data available in the literature on the toxicity of these toxins in different animal species. The internal comparison of these data provides insights on the biological activity of these toxins.

Delayed suppression normalizes face identity responses in the primate brain

SummaryThe primate brain is specialized for social visual perception. Previous work indicates that recognition draws upon an internal comparison between a viewed face and an internally stored average face. Here we demonstrate that this comparison takes the form of a delayed, dynamic suppression of face averageness among single neurons. In three macaque face patches, spiking responses to low-identity morphed faces met with a synchronous attenuation starting approximately 200 ms after onset. Analysis showed that a late-emerging V-shaped identity tuning was sometimes superimposed on linear ramp tuning. This pattern could not be ascribed to repetition suppression within a given session. The results indicate that the brain’s analysis of faces is enhanced through predictive normalization of identity, which increases sensitivity among face-selective neurons to distinctive facial features known to drive recognition.

Political Vocation and Oratory in the Lives of Phocion, Cato Minor and Cato Maior

The pair of biographies Phocion – Cato the Younger begins by establishing, in the Life of Phocion, a comparison between the two protagonists that is illustrated and developed in the internal comparison that Plutarch implicitly traces throughout the two Lives. This can be seen, among other aspects, in their political vocation and in the description of their character and oratory. There is also a close parallel between these biographies and that of Cato the Elder, reinforced by the comparison of their protagonists with Socrates, which evokes the ideal image of the politician inspired by philosophy.