scholarly journals Public Health Implications of Vaping in The US: The Smoking and Vaping Simulation Model

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David T Levy ◽  
Jamie Tam ◽  
Luz Maria Sanchez-Romero ◽  
Yameng Li ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Smoking Initiation ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Health Implications ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us

Abstract Background: Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the US. Methods: SAVM adopts a cohort-approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-year lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses.Results: The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters.Discussion: Policymakers, researchers and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data. Conclusion: The SAVM indicates potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important.

scholarly journals Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David T. Levy ◽  
Jamie Tam ◽  
Luz María Sanchez-Romero ◽  
Yameng Li ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Smoking Initiation ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Health Implications ◽  
The Public ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Usa

Abstract Background Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA. Methods SAVM adopts a cohort approach. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths and life-years lost under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former, and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, with their respective mortality rates. The NVP Scenario allows for smoking- and NVP-specific mortality rates, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. After validating the model against recent US survey data, we present the base model with extensive sensitivity analyses. Results The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 1.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 38.9 million life-years gained between 2013 and 2060. When the NVP relative risk is set to 5%, the results are sensitive to the level of switching and smoking cessation rates and to a lesser extent smoking initiation rates. When the NVP relative risk is raised to 40%, the public health gains in terms of averted deaths and LYL are reduced by 42% in the base case, and the results become much more sensitive to variations in the base case parameters. Discussion Policymakers, researchers, and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources. In developing new simulation models involving NVPs, it will be important to conduct extensive sensitivity analysis and continually update and validate with new data. Conclusion The SAVM indicates the potential benefits of NVP use. However, given the uncertainty surrounding model parameters, extensive sensitivity analysis becomes particularly important.

scholarly journals Public Health Implications of Vaping in the US: The Smoking and Vaping Simulation Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David T Levy ◽  
Jamie Tam ◽  
Luz Maria María Sanchez-Romero ◽  
Yameng Li ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Smoking Initiation ◽  
Health Impact ◽  
Health Implications ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Us ◽  
High Degree

Abstract Background Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the US. Methods SAVM adopts a cohort-approach and is available on an Excel platform. We derive public health implications by comparing smoking- and NVP-attributable deaths under a No-NVP and an NVP Scenario. The No-NVP Scenario projects current, former and never smoking rates via smoking initiation and cessation rates, and incorporates excess risks of smoking. The NVP Scenario allows for NVP relative excess risks, switching from cigarette to NVP use, separate NVP and smoking initiation rates, and separate NVP and smoking cessation rates. The model is validated against recent US survey data on smoking and vaping prevalence. Results The SAVM projects that under current patterns of US NVP use and substitution, NVP use will translate into 5.8 million premature smoking- and vaping-attributable deaths avoided and 96.4 million life years gained between 2013 and 2100. Sensitivity analysis shows that parameters for NVP relative risks, NVP-related switching and smoking cessation are particularly influential in gauging public health impacts. Discussion The SAVM shows potential benefits of e-cigarette use over a wide range of parameters. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding key parameters. Policymakers, researchers and other public health stakeholders can apply the SAVM to estimate the potential public health impact of NVPs in their country or region using their own data sources.

Understanding the Public Health Implications of Prisoner Reentry in California: Summary

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lois M. Davis ◽  
Nancy Nicosia ◽  
Adrian Overton ◽  
Lisa Miyashiro ◽  
Kathryn Pitkin Derose ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Prisoner Reentry ◽  
Health Implications ◽  
The Public

Consequences of a match made in hell: the harm caused by menthol smoking to the African American population over 1980–2018

2021 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2021-056748 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Mendez ◽  
Thuy T T Le
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
African American ◽  
African Americans ◽  
Smoking Initiation ◽  
African American Community ◽  
American Population ◽  
The Public ◽  
African American Population ◽  
Menthol Cigarettes ◽  
Life Years

BackgroundFor many years, national surveys have shown a consistently disproportionately high prevalence of menthol smokers among African Americans compared with the general population. However, to our knowledge, no prior study has quantified the harm that menthol smoking has caused on that population. In this work, we estimate the public health harm that menthol cigarettes have caused to the African American community over the last four decades.MethodsUsing National Health Interview Survey data, we employed a well-established simulation model to reproduce the observed smoking trajectory over 1980–2018 in the African American population. Then, we repeat the experiment, removing the effects of menthol on the smoking initiation and cessation rates over that period, obtaining a new hypothetical smoking trajectory. Finally, we compared both scenarios to calculate the public health harm attributable to menthol cigarettes over 1980–2018.ResultsOur results show that menthol cigarettes were responsible for 1.5 million new smokers, 157 000 smoking-related premature deaths and 1.5 million life-years lost among African Americans over 1980–2018. While African Americans constitute 12% of the total US population, these figures represent, respectively, a staggering 15%, 41% and 50% of the total menthol-related harm.DiscussionOur results show that menthol cigarettes disproportionally harmed African Americans significantly over the last 38 years and are responsible for exacerbating health disparities among that population. Removing menthol cigarettes from the market would benefit the overall US population but, particularly, the African American community.

scholarly journals The public health implications of farming cattle in areas with high background concentrations of vanadium

2005 ◽  
Vol 72 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 281-290 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Gummow ◽  
C.J. Botha ◽  
J.P.T.M. Noordhuizen ◽  
J.A.P. Heesterbeek
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Background Concentrations ◽  
High Background ◽  
Health Implications ◽  
The Public

scholarly journals ABO Blood Groups and the Incidence of Complications in COVID-19 Patients: A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (19) ◽  
pp. 10039
Author(s):  
Salvador Domènech-Montoliu ◽  
Joan Puig-Barberà ◽  
Maria Rosario Pac-Sa ◽  
Paula Vidal-Utrillas ◽  
Marta Latorre-Poveda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Clinical Analysis ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Blood Groups ◽  
Adjusted Relative Risk ◽  
Abo Blood Groups ◽  
The Public ◽  
Telephone Interviews

After a COVID-19 outbreak in the Falles festival of Borriana (Spain) during March 2020, a cohort of patients were followed until October 2020 to estimate complications post-COVID-19, considering ABO blood groups (ABO). From 536 laboratory-confirmed cases, 483 completed the study (90.1%) carried by the Public Health Center of Castelló and the Emergency and Microbiology and Clinical Analysis of Hospital de la Plana Vila-real. The study included ABO determination and telephone interviews of patients. The participants had a mean age of 37.2 ± 17.1 years, 300 females (62.1%). ABO were O (41.4%), A (45.5%), B (9.1%), and AB (3.9%). We found no difference in the incidence of COVID-19 infections. A total of 159 (32.9%) patients reported one or more post-COVID-19 complications with divergent incidences after adjustment: O (32.3%), A (32.6%), B (54.1%), and AB (27.6%); B groups had more complications post-COVID-19 when compared with O group (adjusted relative risk [aRR] 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.68, 95% CI 1.24–2.27), and symptoms of fatigue (1.79, 95% CI 1.08–2.95), myalgia (2.06, 95% CI 1.10–3.84), headache (2.61, 95% CI 1.58–4.31), and disorder of vision (4.26 95% CI 1.33–13.60). In conclusion, we observed significant differences in post-COVID-19 complications by ABO, with a higher incidence in B group. Additional research is justified to confirm our results.

Revealing public opinion towards COVID-19 vaccines with Twitter data in the United States: a spatiotemporal perspective (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tao Hu ◽  
Siqin Wang ◽  
Wei Luo ◽  
Mengxi Zhang ◽  
Xiao Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Opinion ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Sentiment ◽  
Spatiotemporal Trends ◽  
The Us ◽  
Key Events

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has imposed a large, initially uncontrollable, public health crisis both in the US and across the world, with experts looking to vaccines as the ultimate mechanism of defense. The development and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines have been rapidly advancing via global efforts. Hence, it is crucial for governments, public health officials, and policy makers to understand public attitudes and opinions towards vaccines, such that effective interventions and educational campaigns can be designed to promote vaccine acceptance OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to investigate public opinion and perception on COVID-19 vaccines by investigating the spatiotemporal trends of their sentiment and emotion towards vaccines, as well as how such trends relate to popular topics on Twitter in the US METHODS We collected over 300,000 geotagged tweets in the US from March 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021. We examined the spatiotemporal patterns of public sentiment and emotion over time at both national and state scales and identified three phases along the pandemic timeline with the significant changes of public sentiment and emotion, further linking to eleven key events and major topics as the potential drivers to induce such changes via cloud mapping of keywords and topic modelling RESULTS An increasing trend of positive sentiment in parallel with the decrease of negative sentiment are generally observed in most states, reflecting the rising confidence and anticipation of the public towards vaccines. The overall tendency of the eight types of emotion implies the trustiness and anticipation of the public to vaccination, accompanied by the mixture of fear, sadness and anger. Critical social/international events and/or the announcements of political leaders and authorities may have potential impacts on the public opinion on vaccines. These factors, along with important topics and manual reading of popular posts on eleven key events, help identify underlying themes and validate insights from the analysis CONCLUSIONS The analyses of near real-time social media big data benefit public health authorities by enabling them to monitor public attitudes and opinions towards vaccine-related information in a geo-aware manner, address the concerns of vaccine skeptics and promote the confidence of individuals within a certain region or community, towards vaccines

Epidemiological Forecasting: A Crystal Ball for COVID-19 and Future Pandemics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saketh Sundar ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Crystal Ball ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Us ◽  
Control And Prevention ◽  
The Media

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, headlines ranging from “Coronavirus forecasts are grim: It’s going to get worse” to “Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US will fall over the next four weeks, forecast predicts” have dominated the news (Achenbach, 2020; Kallingal, 2021). The weekly-published Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID-19 forecasts have become the go-to forecasts for the media, the public, and various levels of government (Cramer et al., 2021). These projections, generated from epidemiological forecasting, not only inform the public’s caution towards the pandemic but are also crucial for officials to create public health guidelines and allocate resources in hospitals (Gibson et al., 2020). But where do these predictions come from?

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