scholarly journals Ecological niche models applied to post-megafire vegetation restoration in the context of climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Cristina Carrillo García ◽  
Lucas Girola-Iglesias ◽  
Mercedes Guijarro ◽  
Carmen Hernando ◽  
Javier Madrigal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Stable Phase ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Niche Models

Abstract Context Climate change and land-use changes are the main drivers altering fire regime and leading to the occurrence of megafires. Current management policies focus on short-term restoration without considering how climate change affects regeneration dynamics. Objectives We aimed to test the usefulness of ecological niche models (ENMs) in post-fire restoration plans, assessing the short and long-term effects (climate change) of tree species distribution. We, also, examined different important conceptual and methodological aspects. Methods We executed ENM for the four main tree species in an area affected by a megafire in Central Spain following a hierarchical approach and precise resolution (25 meters), at two scales (local and regional), two sampling strategies (regular 2 years after the fire, and opportunistic 14 years after the fire) at local scale, and under two future climate change scenarios. Results ENMs were reliable (AUC > 0.9). Local models generated with data from an opportunistic sampling strategy in a stable phase of vegetation succession (14 years after the fire) provided valuable information for decision-making in post-fire management for current time. But, regional models are capable of projecting the whole climatic niche of species to determine the potential effect of climate change on the vegetation. Conclusion The usefulness of ENMs as support tools in decision-making for post-fire management was confirmed for the first time. ENMs projected at different scales provide valuable information for decision-making in post-fire management. This framework can be applied in other areas to manage the restoration of areas affected by megafires considering climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycoriella Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 831
Author(s):  
Roberta Marques ◽  
Juliano Lessa Pinto Duarte ◽  
Adriane da Fonseca Duarte ◽  
Rodrigo Ferreira Krüger ◽  
Uemmerson Silva da Cunha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Production Areas

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

scholarly journals Current and future suitable habitat areas for Nasuella olivacea (Gray, 1865) in Colombia and Ecuador and analysis of its distribution across different land uses

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Medrano-Vizcaíno ◽  
Patricia Gutiérrez-Salazar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Wildlife Conservation ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models

Nasuella olivacea is an endemic mammal from the Andes of Ecuador and Colombia. Due to its rarity, aspects about its natural history, ecology and distribution patterns are not well known, therefore, research is needed to generate knowledge about this carnivore and a first step is studying suitable habitat areas. We performed Ecological Niche Models and applied future climate change scenarios (2.6 and 8.5 RCP) to determine the potential distribution of this mammal in Colombia and Ecuador, with current and future climate change conditions; furthermore, we analysed its distribution along several land covers. We found that N. olivacea is likely to be found in areas where no records have been reported previously; likewise, climate change conditions would increase suitable distribution areas. Concerning land cover, 73.4% of N. olivacea potential distribution was located outside Protected Areas (PA), 46.1% in Forests and 40.3% in Agricultural Lands. These findings highlight the need to further research understudied species, furthering our understanding about distribution trends and responses to changing climatic conditions, as well as informig future PA designing. These are essential tools for supporting wildlife conservation plans, being applicable for rare species whose biology and ecology remain unknown.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Risk of Leishmaniasis in North America: Predictions from Ecological Niche Models of Vector and Reservoir Species

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. e585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camila González ◽  
Ophelia Wang ◽  
Stavana E. Strutz ◽  
Constantino González-Salazar ◽  
Víctor Sánchez-Cordero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Reservoir Species ◽  
Niche Models

Effects of climate change on the distributional potential of three range-restricted West African bird species

The Condor ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 121 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedictus Freeman ◽  
Julia Sunnarborg ◽  
A Townsend Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
West African ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Individual Species ◽  
Tropical Species ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Niche Models

Abstract A detailed understanding of species’ responses to global climate change provides an informative baseline for designing conservation strategies to optimize protection of biodiversity. However, such information is either limited or not available for many tropical species, making it difficult to incorporate climate change into conservation planning for most tropical species. Here, we used correlative ecological niche models to assess potential distributional responses of 3 range-restricted West African birds, Timneh Parrot (Pscittacus erithracus timneh), Ballman’s Malimbe (Malimbus ballmanni), and White-necked Rockfowl (Picathartes gymnocephalus), to global climate change. We used primary biodiversity occurrence records for each species obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, eBird, and VertNet; for environmental data, we used climatic variables for the present and future, the latter characterized by 2 IPCC representative concentration pathways (4.5, 8.5) future emissions scenarios and 27 general circulation models for a 2050 time horizon. We found broad present-day potential distributions with respect to climate for all 3 species. Future potential distributions for Ballman’s Malimbe and White-necked Rockfowl tended to be stable and closely similar to their present-day distributions; by contrast, we found marked climate change–driven potential range loss across the range of Timneh Parrot. Our results suggest that impacts of climate change on the present distributions of West African birds will in some cases be minimal, but that individual species may respond differently to future conditions. Thus, to optimize conservation of these species, and of bird diversity in general, we recommend that regional-to-national species conservation action plans incorporate climate change adaptation strategies for individual species; ecological niche models could provide an informative baseline information for this planning and prioritization.

scholarly journals Genetically informed ecological niche models improve climate change predictions

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 164-176 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dana H. Ikeda ◽  
Tamara L. Max ◽  
Gerard J. Allan ◽  
Matthew K. Lau ◽  
Stephen M. Shuster ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Niche Models

MSP for the anthropocene

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
OCTO
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Marine Protected Areas ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Niche Models

Marine protected areas (MPAs) designate a static spatial zone for protection from some, or all, human activities. With climate change, species are likely to shift in response to warming oceans, quite possibly outside the boundaries of the MPAs that were meant to offer protection. In addition, the designation of an area as a partially-protected MPA may spur unintended human impacts. So how do you plan for climate change and human uses when species migrate? Ecological niche models may offer a solution.

scholarly journals Selecting tree species for climate change integrated forest restoration and management in the Chitwan Annapurna Landscape, Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 29-46
Author(s):  
Gokarna Jung Thapa ◽  
Eric Wikramanayake
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Species ◽  
Forest Restoration ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Government ◽  
Choice Of Species

Climate change will affect forest vegetation communities, and field surveys have already indicated measurable distribution range shifts in some tree species. As forests play an important role in stabilizing steep slopes and provide vital ecological goods and services, the Government of Nepal has been encouraging forest restoration and sustainable management. However, reforestation and afforestation programs should consider the long term survivorship of the trees selected for reforestation to build climate adaptation and resilience. Thus, the choice of species should include species that would be expected to grow within the elevation zone or in the particular habitat under future climate change scenarios. In this analysis, we have assessed the response of 12 important tree species to climate change using the IPCC A2A GHG scenario with GCM-based climate envelopes to provide guidelines and recommendations for climate change-integrated forest restoration and management in the Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL). The results indicate that several species could exhibit range shifts due to climate change, with an overall trend for species in the lower elevations to move northwards or further up the slopes within the current area of distributions. Analyses such as this, though not perfect, can help to make critical and informed decisions to support long-term forest restoration programs.

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