Identification of a Seven-Gene Signature and Establishment of a Nomogram Predicting Overall Survival in Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Abstract Background: Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is a highly heterogeneous tumor with high incidence and poor prognosis. Therefore, effective predictive models are needed to evaluate patient outcomes and optimize treatment. Methods: Ten gene microarray datasets were obtained from the gene expression omnibus (GEO) database. Level 3 mRNA expression and clinical data were obtained in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. We identified highly robust differentially-expressed genes (DEGs) between HNSCC and normal tissue in nine GEO and TCGA datasets using Robust Rank Aggregation (RRA) method. Univariate Cox regression analysis and lasso Cox regression analysis were performed to identify DEGs related to the Overall-survival (OS) and to construct a prognostic gene signature. External validation was performed using GSE65858. Moreover, gene set enrichment analyses (GSEA) analysis was used to analyze significantly rich pathways in high-risk and low-risk groups, and tumor immunoassays were used to clarify immune correlation of the prognostic gene. Finally, integrate multiple forecast indicators were used to build a nomogram using the TCGA-HNSCC dataset. Kaplan–Meier analysis, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), a calibration plot, Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to test the predictive capability of the seven genetic signals and the nomogram. Results: A novel seven-gene signature (including SLURP1, SCARA5, CLDN10, MYH11, CXCL13, HLF, and ITGA3) was established to predict overall survival in HNSCC patients. ROC curve performed well in the training and validation data sets. Kaplan–Meier analysis demonstrated that low-risk groups had a longer survival time. The nomogram containing seven genetic markers and clinical prognostic factors was a good predictor of HNSCC survival and showed a certain net clinical benefit through the DCA curve. Further research demonstrated that the infiltration degree of CD8 + T cells, B cells, neutrophils, and NK cells were significantly lower in the high-risk group.Conclusion: Our analysis established a seven-gene model and nomogram to accurately predict the prognosis status of HNSCC patients, immune relevance was also described, which may provide a new possibility for individual treatment and medical decision-making.