scholarly journals Development and Validation a Prediction Model to Recurrence in Borderline Ovarian Tumor Patients with Fertility-Preserving Surgery

Author(s):  
Yunan He ◽  
Shunjie Hu ◽  
Jiaojiao Zhong ◽  
Hui Yang ◽  
Nianchun Shan

Abstract Background: To identify prognostic factors in patients with borderline ovarian tumor (BOT) and establish and validate a nomogram predicting recurrence in BOT patients treated with fertility-preserving surgery.Methods: Patients with BOT who underwent surgery at two institutions between January 2000 and June 2017 were included and categorized into training and validation cohorts. Univariate log-rank test and Cox regression analysis were performed in the training cohort to identify prognostic factors, and a nomogram was developed to predict the recurrence rate. The model was validated by calculating the C-index and drawing the calibration curve and receiver operating curve (ROC).Results: In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, practice period, past history of benign ovarian disease, past history of benign breast disease, elevated CA125 levels, elevated CA199 levels, surgical methods, greater omentum resection, FIGO stage, postoperative pregnancy, and re-operation were independently associated with recurrence-free survival (p<0.05). The aforementioned prognostic factors were used to develop a nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated a good ability to predict the risk of recurrence (training cohort C-index: 0.866, validation cohort C-index: 0.920). The calibration curve suggested that the predicted recurrence-free survival was closely related to the actual recurrence. ROC analysis showed that the nomogram had a good discriminatory power with the area under curve between 0.776 and 0.956. Conclusions: The nomogram can predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival of BOT patients undergoing fertility-preserving surgery. The predictive model can help guide surgical plans, postoperative monitoring, and prognostic evaluation of BOT patients.

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Kapoor ◽  
Shawn Dason ◽  
Christopher B. Allard ◽  
Bobby Shayegan ◽  
Louis Lacombe ◽  
...  

Introduction: Radical nephroureterectomy for upper tract urothelial carcinoma (UTUC) must include some form of distal ureter management to avoid high rates of tumour recurrence. It is uncertain which distal ureter management technique has the best oncologic outcomes. To determine which distal ureter management technique resulted in the lowest tumour recurrence rate, we analyzed a multiinstitutional Canadian radical nephroureterectomy database.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed patients who underwent radical nephroureterectomy with distal ureter management for UTUC between January 1990 and June 2010 at 10 Canadian tertiary hospitals. Distal ureter management approaches were divided into 3 categories: (1) extravesical tenting for ureteric excision without cystotomy (EXTRAVESICAL); (2) open cystotomy with intravesical bladder cuff excision (INTRAVESICAL); and (3) extravesical excision with endoscopic management of ureteric orifice (ENDOSCOPIC). Data available for each patient included demographic details, distal ureter management approach, pathology and operative details, as well as the presence and location of local or distant recurrence. Clinical outcomes included overall recurrence-free survival and intravesical recurrence-free survival. Survival analysis was performed with the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was also performed.Results: A total of 820 patients underwent radical nephroureterectomy with a specified distal ureter management approach at 10 Canadian academic institutions. The mean patient age was 69.6 years and the median follow-up was 24.6 months. Of the 820 patients, 406 (49.5%) underwent INTRAVESICAL, 316 (38.5%) underwent EXTRAVESICAL, and 98 (11.9%) underwent ENDOSOPIC distal ureter management. Groups differed significantly in their proportion of females, proportion of laparoscopic cases, presence of carcinoma in situ and pathological tumour stage (p < 0.05). Recurrence-free survival at 5 years was 46.3%, 35.6%, and 30.1% for INTRAVESICAL, EXTRAVESICAL and ENDOSCOPIC, respectively (p < 0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis confirmed that INTRAVESICAL resulted in a lower hazard of recurrence compared to EXTRAVESICAL and ENDOSCOPIC. When looking only at intravesical recurrence-free survival (iRFS), a similar trend held up with INTRAVESICAL having the highest iRFS, followed by ENDOSCOPIC and then EXTRAVESICAL management (p < 0.05). At last follow-up, 406 (49.5%) patients were alive and free of disease.Conclusion: Open intravesical excision of the distal ureter (INTRAVESICAL) during radical nephroureterectomy was associated with improved overall and intravesical recurrence-free survival compared with extravesical and endoscopic approaches. These findings suggest that INTRAVESICAL should be considered the gold standard oncologic approach to distal ureter management during radical nephroureterectomy. Limitations of this study include its retrospective design, heterogeneous cohort, and limited follow-up.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
He-San Luo ◽  
Ying-Ying Chen ◽  
Wei-Zhen Huang ◽  
Sheng-Xi Wu ◽  
Shao-Fu Huang ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose To develop a nomogram model for predicting local progress-free survival (LPFS) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CCRT). Methods We collected the clinical data of ESCC patients treated with CCRT in our hospital. Eligible patients were randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with COX regression was performed to select optimal radiomic features to calculate Rad-score for predicting LPFS in the training cohort. The univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the predictive clinical factors for developing a nomogram model. The C-index was used to assess the performance of the predictive model and calibration curve was used to evaluate the accuracy. Results A total of 221 ESCC patients were included in our study, with 155 patients in training cohort and 66 patients in validation cohort. Seventeen radiomic features were selected by LASSO COX regression analysis to calculate Rad-score for predicting LPFS. The patients with a Rad-score ≥ 0.1411 had high risk of local recurrence, and those with a Rad-score < 0.1411 had low risk of local recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that N stage, CR status and Rad-score were independent predictive factors for LPFS. A nomogram model was built based on the result of multivariate analysis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.745 (95% CI 0.7700–0.790) in training cohort and 0.723(95% CI 0.654–0.791) in validation cohort. The 3-year LPFS rate predicted by the nomogram model was highly consistent with the actual 3-year LPFS rate both in the training cohort and the validation cohort. Conclusion We developed and validated a prediction model based on radiomic features and clinical factors, which can be used to predict LPFS of patients after CCRT. This model is conducive to identifying the patients with ESCC benefited more from CCRT.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (6_suppl) ◽  
pp. 392-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph Alexander Seidel ◽  
Gedske Daugaard ◽  
Tim Nestler ◽  
Alexey Tryakin ◽  
Christian Daniel Fankhauser ◽  
...  

392 Background: The prognostic impact of LDH and HCG serum levels in marker positive metastatic seminoma patients is uncertain. This analysis evaluated the association between LDH and HCG levels with oncological outcomes in this patient population. Methods: Seminoma patients with elevated HCG levels were retrospectively analyzed. After stratification according to tumor marker levels pre- and post-orchiectomy, outcomes of subgroups were compared using log-rank test and cox-regression analysis. Study endpoints were cancer specific- (CSS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Results: In total, 429 HCG-positive metastatic seminoma patients (stage II n=291; stage III n=138) diagnosed between 1981 and 2018 were included. LDH + HCG levels ranged from 124 U/l to 8833 U/l (median: 619; IQR: 955) + 2 IU/l to 283,782 IU/l (median: 20; IQR: 63) pre- and from 107 U/l to 8650 U/l (median: 324; IQR: 481) + 0 IU/l to 36700 IU/l post-orchiectomy (median: 30; IQR: 121), respectively. Five-year CSS and RFS rates were 90% and 79%, respectively. Patients with LDH levels pre-orchiectomy <1.5 UNL (n=142) had a 5-year CSS (RFS) rate of 97% (88%), compared to 86% (81%) for ≥1.5 to 3 UNL (n=40), 83% (77%) for >3 to 5 UNL (n=44) and 83% (72%) for >5 UNL (n=44) (CSS p <0.001; RFS p=0.142). Concerning LDH levels post-orchiectomy this stratification was not significant but patients with LDH levels ≥3 UNL (n=77) displayed an impaired prognosis associated with a 5-year CSS (RFS) rate of 85% (79%) compared to 94% (82%) for levels <3 UNL (n=186) (CSS p=0.025; RFS p=0.447). Patients with HCG levels ≥2000 IU/l (n=17) pre- but not post-orchiectomy had a 5-year CSS (RFS) rate of 73% (60%) compared to 94% (79%) for patients with HCG levels <2000 IU/l (n=855) (CSS p=0.09; RFS p=0.04). In cox-regression analysis LDH ≥1.5 UNL (p=0.037; HR 3.32, CI95%1.08-10.26) and HCG levels ≥2000 IU/l (p=0.044; HR 3.69, 95%CI1.04-13.13) pre-orchiectomy were confirmed as prognostic factors for CSS. Conclusions: LDH levels inversely correlate with survival outcomes, suggesting ≥1.5 UNL pre- and ≥3 UNL post-orchiectomy as potential cut-off values for further risk assessment. Patients with extensive HCG elevations may represent an unfavorable subgroup concerning RFS and CSS, but only few patients were affected.


2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 1325-1337
Author(s):  
Yan Zhang ◽  
Huan Lu ◽  
Jinjin Zhang ◽  
Shixuan Wang

Aims: To identify metabolism-associated genes (MAGs) that serve as biomarkers to predict prognosis associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS) for stage I cervical cancer (CC). Patients & methods: By analyzing the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database for 258 cases of stage I CC via univariate Cox analysis, LASSO and multivariate Cox regression analysis, we unveiled 11 MAGs as a signature that was also validated using Kaplan–Meier and receiver operating characteristic analyses. In addition, a metabolism-related nomogram was developed. Results: High accuracy of this signature for prediction was observed (area under the curve at 1, 3 and 5 years was 0.964, 0.929 and 0.852 for the internal dataset and 0.759, 0.719 and 0.757 for the external dataset). The high-risk score group displayed markedly worse RFS than did the low-risk score group. The indicators performed well in our nomogram. Conclusions: We identified a novel signature as a biomarker for predicting prognosis and a nomogram to facilitate the individual management of stage I CC patients.


BMC Cancer ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yutaka Miyawaki ◽  
Hiroshi Sato ◽  
Shuichiro Oya ◽  
Hirofumi Sugita ◽  
Yasumitsu Hirano ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Surgery is still the mainstay of radical treatment for resectable esophageal cancer (EC). It is apparent that the presence or spread of lymph node metastasis (LNM) is a powerful prognostic factor in patients with EC who are eligible for curative treatment. Although the importance and efficacy of lymph node dissection in radical esophagectomy have been reported, the clinical or prognostic relevance of specific metastatic patterns within the mediastinal cavity and abdomen remains unclear. Methods We retrospectively analyzed the association of postoperative survival with clinical mediastinal LNM (cMLNM) and abdominal LNM (cALNM) in 157 patients who underwent radical EC surgery at our hospital between May 2012 and March 2018. Results A significant difference in cause-specific survival (CSS) was observed between patients with and without cALNM (log-rank p = 0.000). A multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that cALNM and thoracic surgery (mediastinal lymphadenectomy via conventional open right thoracotomy or video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery) independently predicted CSS (p = 0.0007 and 0.021, respectively). Moreover, a significant difference in systemic recurrence-free survival was observed between those with and without cALNM (log-rank p = 0.000). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that cALNM and sex independently predicted systemic recurrence-free survival (p = 0.000 and 0.015, respectively). Conclusion cALNM was an independent poor prognostic factor for CSS after EC surgery. It may also be an independent prognostic factor for postoperative systemic recurrence, which can shorten the CSS. For patients with cALNM-positive EC who have a high potential risk of systemic metastases, more extensive treatment besides the conventional perioperative systemic chemotherapy may be necessary.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jialin Meng ◽  
Zichen Bian ◽  
Chenyu Zhu ◽  
Zhi Tao ◽  
Xiaoyan Jin ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: We aimed to establish and validate a coagulation-feature-based nomogram to predict recurrence-free survival for prostate cancer patients.Methods: The study contained 168 prostate cancer patients who had received radical prostatectomy between 2012 and 2018. The Kaplan-Meier plot and log-rank analysis were used to screen recurrence-free survival-related features. The nomogram was established by combining the significant coagulation features with clinicopathological characteristics by using Cox regression analysis. The accuracy and clinical significance of the nomogram model were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Kaplan-Meier plot, and calibration plot. Besides, we explored the correlation between coagulation pathway activity and patients’ prognosis based on public datasets by using gene set variation analysis (GSVA) analysis.Results: The results suggested that patients in the high-risk subgroup showed unfavorable prognoses than those in the low-risk subgroup classified by the nomogram model in both the training (log-rank P < 0.0001) and validation (log-rank P = 0.0004) cohorts. The nomogram model exhibited high discriminative accuracy in the training cohort [1-year area under the curve (AUC) of 0.74, and 3-year AUC of 0.69], which was confirmed in the internal validation cohort (C-index = 0.651). Besides, the calibration plots confirmed good concordance for the prediction of recurrence-free survival at 1 and 3 years. Besides, the subgroup analyses confirmed the usage of this model in different clinicopathological subgroups. Finally, GSVA analyses suggested that patients with higher coagulation pathway scores mostly had unfavorable prognoses than those with lower scores, a result consistent with the findings obtained above.Conclusions: In conclusion, we develop a practical nomogram model for the recurrence-free survival predicting of prostate cancer patients. This model may offer clinicians prognostic assessments and facilitate personalized treatment.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
He-San Luo ◽  
Ying-Ying Chen ◽  
Sheng-Xi Wu ◽  
Shao-Fu Huang ◽  
Hong-Yao Xu ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose: To develop a nomogram model for predicting local progress-free survival (LPFS) in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. Methods: We collected the clinical data of ESCC patients treated with CCRT in our hospital. Eligible patients were randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) with COX regression was performed to select optimal radiomics features calculating Rad-score for predicting LPFS in the training cohort. The univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the predictive clinical factors for developing a nomogram model. The C-index was used to assess the performance of the predictive model and calibration curve was used to evaluate the accuracy.Results: A total of 221 ESCC patients were included in our study, with 155 patients in training cohort and 66 patients in validation cohort. After LASSO COX regression analysis, seventeen radiomics features were selected to calculate Rad-score for predicting LPFS. The patients with a Rad-score≥0.1411 had high risk of local recurrence, and those with a Rad-score<0.1411 had low risk of local recurrence. Multivariate analysis showed that N stage, CR status and Rad-score were independent predictive factors for LPFS. A nomogram model was built based on the result of multivariate analysis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.745 (95%CI: 0.7700 -0.790) in training cohort and 0.723(95%CI:0.654-0.791) in validation cohort. The 3-year LPFS rate predicted by the nomogram model was highly consistent with the actual 3-year LPFS rate both in the training cohort and the validation cohort.Conclusion: We developed and validated a prediction model based on radiomics features and clinical factors, which can be used to predict LPFS of patients after CCRT. This model is conducive to making individualized chemoradiotherapy strategy and providing scientific basis for subsequent intensive adjuvant therapy for ESCC patients.


2010 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 1287-1293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuma Kiyotani ◽  
Taisei Mushiroda ◽  
Chiyo K. Imamura ◽  
Naoya Hosono ◽  
Tatsuhiko Tsunoda ◽  
...  

PurposeThe clinical efficacy of tamoxifen is suspected to be influenced by the activity of drug-metabolizing enzymes and transporters involved in the formation, metabolism, and elimination of its active forms. We investigated relationships of polymorphisms in transporter genes and CYP2D6 to clinical outcome of patients receiving tamoxifen.Patients and MethodsWe studied 282 patients with hormone receptor–positive, invasive breast cancer receiving tamoxifen monotherapy, including 67 patients who have been previously reported. We investigated the effects of allelic variants of CYP2D6 and haplotype-tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tag-SNPs) of ABCB1, ABCC2, and ABCG2 on recurrence-free survival using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis. Plasma concentrations of tamoxifen metabolites were measured in 98 patients receiving tamoxifen 20 mg/d.ResultsCYP2D6 variants were significantly associated with shorter recurrence-free survival (P = .000036; hazard ratio [HR] = 9.52; 95% CI, 2.79 to 32.45 in patients with two variant alleles v patients without variant alleles). Among 51 tag-SNPs in transporter genes, a significant association was found at rs3740065 in ABCC2 (P = .00017; HR = 10.64; 95% CI, 1.44 to 78.88 in patients with AA v GG genotypes). The number of risk alleles of CYP2D6 and ABCC2 showed cumulative effects on recurrence-free survival (P = .000000055). Patients carrying four risk alleles had 45.25-fold higher risk compared with patients with ≤ one risk allele. CYP2D6 variants were associated with lower plasma levels of endoxifen and 4-hydroxytamoxifen (P = .0000043 and .00052), whereas no significant difference was found among ABCC2 genotype groups.ConclusionOur results suggest that polymorphisms in CYP2D6 and ABCC2 are important predictors for the prognosis of patients with breast cancer treated with tamoxifen.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waseem Masalha ◽  
Dieter Henrik Heiland ◽  
Christine Steiert ◽  
Marie T. Krüger ◽  
Daniel Schnell ◽  
...  

ObjectiveSpheno-orbital meningiomas (SOM) are rare intracranial tumors that arise at the sphenoid wing. These tumors can invade important neurovascular structures making radical resection difficult, while residual tumors often lead to recurrence. The purpose of this study was to evaluate prognostic factors influencing the recurrence and progression-free survival (PFS) rates of spheno-orbital meningiomas, with a particular focus on the role of surgery and postoperative radiotherapy.MethodsBetween 2000 and March 2020, 65 cases of spheno-orbital meningioma were included, of which 50 cases underwent surgical treatment alone, and 15 cases underwent resection and radiotherapy. A Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to provide median point estimates and PFS rates; further, Cox regression analysis was used to identify significant factors associated with treatment.ResultsGross total resection significantly reduced the risk of recurrence (p-value = 0.0062). There was no significant benefit for progression-free survival after postoperative radiotherapy (p-value = 0.42). Additionally, spheno-orbital meningiomas with an invasion of the cavernous sinus and intraconal invasion showed significantly worse PFS compared to other locations (p-value = 0.017).ConclusionThe maximal safe resection remains the most important prognostic factor associated with lower recurrence rates and longer PFS in patients with spheno-orbital meningioma. The invasion of the cavernous sinus and intraconal invasion was an independent factor associated with worse PFS. Patients with postoperative high-precision radiotherapy did not show significantly better PFS due to the small number of patients.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia-wei Li ◽  
Jin Zhou ◽  
Zhao-ting Shi ◽  
Na Li ◽  
Shi-chong Zhou ◽  
...  

BackgroundTo determine a correlation between mRNA and lncRNA signatures, sonographic features, and risk of recurrence in triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC).MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the data from 114 TNBC patients having undergone transcriptome analysis. The risk of tumor recurrence was determined based on the correlation between transcriptome profiles and recurrence-free survival. Ultrasound (US) features were described according to the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System. Multivariate logistic regression analysis determined the correlation between US features and risk of recurrence. The predictive value of sonographic features in determining tumor recurrence was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic curves.ResultsThree mRNAs (CHRDL1, FCGR1A, and RSAD2) and two lncRNAs (HIF1A-AS2 and AK124454) were correlated with recurrence-free survival in patients with TNBC. Among the three mRNAs, two were upregulated (FCGR1A and RSAD2) and one was downregulated (CHRDL1) in TNBCs. LncRNAs HIF1A-AS2 and AK124454 were upregulated in TNBCs. Based on these signatures, an integrated mRNA–lncRNA model was established using Cox regression analysis to determine the risk of tumor recurrence. Benign-like sonographic features, such as regular shape, circumscribed margin, posterior acoustic enhancement, and no calcifications, were associated with HIF1A-AS2 expression and high risk of tumor recurrence (P&lt;0.05). Malignant-like features, such as irregular shape, uncircumscribed margin, no posterior acoustic enhancement, and calcifications, were correlated with CHRDL1 expression and low risk of tumor recurrence (P&lt;0.05).ConclusionsSonographic features and mRNA–lncRNA signatures in TNBCs represent the risk of tumor recurrence. Taken together, US may be a promising technique in determining the prognosis of patients with TNBC.


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