Predicting Temperature And Precipitation During The Flood Season Based On Teleconnection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaewon Jung ◽  
Hung Soo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
La Nina

Abstract In recent years, the damages resulting from abnormal hydrometeorological climate have substantially increased over the world due to the climate variability and change. Especially, the flood damage has been severely occurred during the flood season almost every year in Korea. For an example, we had the localized heavy rainfalls for 54 days in flood season of 2020 and had huge property damage and loss of life. Therefore, the study needs to be conducted to improve the predictive power of seasonal time-scale forecasts spanning one to several months for the damage reduction and prevention. In this regard, this study aims to provide a priori predictions (several months ahead) of the climate variable at target sites with a statistical method based on teleconnection with global climatic conditions. Herein, the paradigm of the temperature and precipitation prediction in the Geum river basin in Korea is presented. The purposes of the study are also (1) to analyse the characteristics of summer temperatures and precipitation according to the occurrence of El Niño/La Niña and (2) to suggest a seasonal prediction model that can consider the effects of the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña during the flood season. The model is constructed by classifying the data period into El Niño, La Niña, and neutral status. Then we have shown that the prediction model improves the predictive power for the predictions of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation at midlatitude stations which Korea is located. Therefore, this study demonstrates the possibility of improving the predictive power for forecasting temperature and precipitation by the prediction model considering climate variability.

scholarly journals Network analysis reveals strongly localized impacts of El Niño

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (29) ◽  
pp. 7543-7548 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingfang Fan ◽  
Jun Meng ◽  
Yosef Ashkenazy ◽  
Shlomo Havlin ◽  
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Agriculture Industry ◽  
Global Impacts

Climatic conditions influence the culture and economy of societies and the performance of economies. Specifically, El Niño as an extreme climate event is known to have notable effects on health, agriculture, industry, and conflict. Here, we construct directed and weighted climate networks based on near-surface air temperature to investigate the global impacts of El Niño and La Niña. We find that regions that are characterized by higher positive/negative network “in”-weighted links are exhibiting stronger correlations with the El Niño basin and are warmer/cooler during El Niño/La Niña periods. In contrast to non-El Niño periods, these stronger in-weighted activities are found to be concentrated in very localized areas, whereas a large fraction of the globe is not influenced by the events. The regions of localized activity vary from one El Niño (La Niña) event to another; still, some El Niño (La Niña) events are more similar to each other. We quantify this similarity using network community structure. The results and methodology reported here may be used to improve the understanding and prediction of El Niño/La Niña events and also may be applied in the investigation of other climate variables.

Climate phenomenon of La Niña and El Niño advances on variation in sea water level of Lembeh Strait and Sangihe Waters

2013 ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Riyadi . ◽  
Adri A Tarumingkeng ◽  
Rignolda Djamaluddin ◽  
Gybert E Mamuaya
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Least Square ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Phase Lag ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Lembeh Strait

Coastal Waters of Lembeh Strait characterizes by small waves and bathymetry undulation. While Sangihe waters have big waves, coastal bays with gently sloping beaches and flawless beaches that are generally steep headlands or cliffs on the shoreline. Differences in these two characters are interesting to watch, especially the value of the Mean Sea Level (MSL). The Least square method is the method of calculating the tidal harmonic constants which are the amplitude and phase lag. Formzahl number calculation is used to determine the type of the tidal in these two waters. The Formzahl numbers of these two waters ranged from 0.26-1.5, so there was no difference in the tidal type. The type of tidal of these two waters was catagorised as Mixed Tide Prevailing Semidiurnal, which is generally in eastern Indonesia waters. Comparison of the fluctuation of Mean Sea Level (MSL) in Lembeh Strait waters in normal climatic conditions, lanina and elnino showed the difference in height. In elnino condition, the MSL value was 87 mm lower (5.9%) than in normal operating condition (1387 mm), and in lanina condition, the average of MSL was higher 51 mm (3.46%) of the normal condition (1525 mm). While in normal climatic conditions, the MSL was 1474 mm© Perairan laut di Selat Lembeh mempunyai karakteristik gelombang kecil dan batimetri berundulasi.  Sedangkan di perairan Sangihe memiliki gelombang besar, pantai teluk berparas pantai landai dan pantai tanjung yang umumnya terjal atau bertebing pada garis pantai. Perbedaan dua karakter ini menjadi hal yang menarik untuk diamati, terutama muka air laut rerata (MLR). Metode least square adalah metode perhitungan pasang surut yang digunakan untuk menghitung konstanta harmonik yaitu amplitude dan kelambatan fase. Dengan perhitungan bilangan Formzahl akan mengetahui tipe pasang surut di kedua perairan tersebut. Diperoleh bilangan Formzahl perairan tersebut berkisar antara 0,26-1,5, sehingga tidak ada perbedaan tipe pasang surutnya. Tipe pasang surut antara kedua perairan ini adalah tipe pasang surut campuran condong ke harian ganda. Pasang surut jenis ini banyak terdapat di perairan Indonesia bagian timur.  Perbandingan fluktuasi muka laut rerata (MLR) di perairan Selat Lembeh pada kondisi iklim normal, El Niño dan La Niña menunjukkan perbedaan ketinggian. Di mana pada kondisi El Niño mempunyai muka laut rerata (MLR) lebih rendah 87 mm (5,9%) dari kondisi normalnya yaitu 1387 mm dan pada kondisi La Niña mempunyai muka laut rerata (MLR) lebih tinggi 51 mm (3,46%) dari kondisi normalnya yaitu 1525 mm. Sedangkan pada kondisi iklim normal muka laut rerata (MLR) adalah 1474 mm©

scholarly journals Distinct Patterns of Tropical Pacific SST Anomaly and Their Impacts on North American Climate

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (14) ◽  
pp. 5221-5241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Guo ◽  
Mingfang Ting ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Dong Eun Lee
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Cluster Technique ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
The Impact

A neural-network-based cluster technique, the so-called self-organizing map (SOM), was performed to extract distinct sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns during boreal winter. The SOM technique has advantages in nonlinear feature extraction compared to the commonly used empirical orthogonal function analysis and is widely used in meteorology. The eight distinguishable SOM patterns so identified represent three La Niña–like patterns, two near-normal patterns, and three El Niño–like patterns. These patterns show the varied amplitude and location of the SST anomalies associated with El Niño and La Niña, such as the central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño. The impact of each distinctive SOM pattern on winter-mean surface temperature and precipitation changes over North America was examined. Based on composite maps with observational data, each SOM pattern corresponds to a distinguishable spatial structure of temperature and precipitation anomaly over North America, which seems to result from differing wave train patterns, extending from the tropics to mid–high latitudes induced by longitudinally shifted tropical heating. The corresponding teleconnection as represented by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model, version 4 (CAM4), was compared with the observational results. It was found that the 16-member ensemble average of the CAM4 experiments with prescribed SST can reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation responses to the different SST SOM patterns, which suggests that the circulation differences are largely SST driven rather than due to internal atmospheric variability.

scholarly journals Climate variability drives plankton community composition changes: the 2010–2011 El Niño to La Niña transition around Australia

2015 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 966-984 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter A. Thompson ◽  
Pru Bonham ◽  
Paul Thomson ◽  
Wayne Rochester ◽  
Martina A. Doblin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Community Composition ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Plankton Community ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Composition Changes

ANALISIS DAERAH RAWAN KEKERINGAN LAHAN JAGUNG BERDASARKAN IKLIM OLDEMAN DAN KETERSEDIAN AIR TANAH DI NUSA TENGGARA TIMUR SAAT PERIODE EL NINO DAN LA NINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 1219
Author(s):  
Oki Adrianto ◽  
Sudirman Sudirman ◽  
Suwandi Suwandi
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Perekonomian Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur secara sektoral masih didominasi sektor pertanian.Tanaman jagung menjadi salah satu produksi tanaman pangan terbesar berdasarkan data dari Dinas Pertanian dan Perkebunan Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur tahun 2015. Peningkatan produksi pertanian dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai strategi adaptasi dan upaya penanganan bencana, salah satu upaya tersebut adalah dengan penyediaan informasi iklim terkait penentuan daerah-daerah rawan kekeringan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui sebaran wilayah rawan kekeringan lahan jagung bulanan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur saat kondisi El Nino dan La Nina dengan periodeisasi bulanan januari hingga desember. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data curah hujan rata rata bulanan di 19 pos hujan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur dan suhu udara rata-rata bulanan dihitung menggunakan pendekatan teori Brack dengan titik referensi Stasiun Klimatologi Lasiana Kupang. Periode dari masing-masing data yang digunakan adalah dari tahun 1991 dan 1997 digunakan sebagai tahun El Nino dan tahun 1999 dan 2010 digunakan sebagai tahun La Nina. Metode yang digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat rawan kekeringan dengan menggunakan pembobotan berdasarkan penjumlahan bobot tipe iklim Oldeman dan bobot ketersediaan air tanah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan sebaran daerah kekeringan di Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timurpada tahun el nino lebih luas dibandingkan tahun la nina.

A Influência dos fenômenos El Niño e La Niña sobre a dinâmica climática da região Amazônica

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. e2018014
Author(s):  
Samya de Freitas MOREIRA ◽  
Cleiciane Silva da CONCEIÇÃO ◽  
Milla Cristina Santos da CRUZ ◽  
Antônio PEREIRA JÚNIOR
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

Caracterização climática da temperatura do ar em Veranópolis, Rio Grande do Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Heemann Junges
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina

Estudos locais de caraterização e variabilidade climática são fundamentais para geração de informações mais adaptadas às atividades agrícolas desenvolvidas em um município ou região. O objetivo desse trabalho foi caracterizar climaticamente e analisar a influência de eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) na série 1956-2015 de temperatura do ar de Veranópolis, RS. Para caracterização climática foram estabelecidas estatísticas descritivas das temperaturas do ar máximas, mínimas e médias mensais, estacional e anual na série e normal climatológica padrão 1961- 1990. Para identificação de diferenças entre estações e influência de eventos ENOS, os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e teste de Duncan. Os resultados indicaram que a temperatura média anual é de 17,3ºC, variando entre 12,7ºC (julho) e 21,8ºC (janeiro). O clima é do tipo Cfb, de acordo com a classificação climática de Köppen e TE (temperado) na classificação climática do Estado. Temperaturas mínimas médias mensais inferiores a 10ºC ocorrem de maio a setembro, período de maior variabilidade interanual das temperaturas máximas (desvio padrão entre 1,5º e 1,8ºC), mínimas (1,6-1,8ºC) e médias mensais (1,4-1,7ºC). Anos de La Niña possuem temperaturas médias estacionais inferiores as de El Niño, embora diferenciação em relação a neutros ocorra somente para temperaturas mínimas na primavera e máximas no outono.

Rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho, no Rio Grande do Sul, não difere entre eventos El Niño Oscilação Sul

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Income Data ◽  
The Relationship

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.

Atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover on the Great Lakes, 1963–2011

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 421-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuezhi Bai ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Atmospheric Teleconnection ◽  
La Nina

Atmospheric teleconnection circulation patterns associated with severe and mild ice cover over the Great Lakes are investigated using the composite analysis of lake ice data and National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for the period 1963–2011. The teleconnection pattern associated with the severe ice cover is the combination of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Arctic Oscillation (AO) and negative phase of Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern, while the pattern associated with the mild ice cover is the combination of a positive PNA (or an El Niño) and a positive phase of the NAO/AO. These two extreme ice conditions are associated with the North American ridge–trough variations. The intensified ridge–trough system produces a strong northwest-to-southeast tilted ridge and trough and increases the anomalous northwesterly wind, advecting cold, dry Arctic air to the Great Lakes. The weakened ridge–trough system produces a flattened ridge and trough, and promotes a climatological westerly wind, advecting warm, dry air from western North America to the Great Lakes. Although ice cover for all the individual lakes responds roughly linearly and symmetrically to both phases of the NAO/AO, and roughly nonlinearly and asymmetrically to El Niño and La Niña events, the overall ice cover response to individual NAO/AO or Niño3.4 index is not statistically significant. The combined NAO/AO and Niño3.4 indices can be used to reliably project severe ice cover during the simultaneous –NAO/AO and La Niña events, and mild ice cover during the simultaneous +NAO/AO and El Niño events.

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