Analysis and Prediction of Land Use/land Cover Changes and Driving Forces by Using GIS and Remote Sensing in the Coka Watershed, Southern Ethiopia

Abstract Land use and land cover (LULC) is among fundamental environmental and ecological factors for monitoring, resource management, police making, planning and facilitating the development of strategies to balance conservation, development pressures, and conflicting uses. This study aimed at analyzing LULC changes that have occurred during 1988–2018 and its prediction for 2040–2060 period in Coka watershed, southern Ethiopia. LULC changes were analyzed using geographic information system and predicted by CA-Markov model. Cultivated and rural settlement land, bare land, built up area and water body have increased at an annual rate of 23.1, 2.2, 0.8 and 1.1 ha/year but forest land, bushland and grassland have decreased at an annual rate of 14.4, 4.1 and 8.7 ha/year, respectively. It is projected that cultivated and rural settlement land, bare land, built up area and water body will expand but forest land, grassland and bushland will decrease. Expansion of agriculture and deforestation showed increasing trend on both previous and predicted LULC changes with upcoming expansion of bare land and eucalyptus tree plantation due to major driving factor of population growth. This study highlights the need for well integrated landscape planning, reliable predictions for future LULC and to reduce the deterioration of environment.

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Dynamics of forage and land cover changes in Teltele district of Borana rangelands, southern Ethiopia: using geospatial and field survey data

BMC Ecology ◽

10.1186/s12898-020-00320-8 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yeneayehu Fenetahun ◽

Wang Yong-dong ◽

Yuan You ◽

Xu Xinwen

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Biomass Production ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Southern Ethiopia ◽

Forest Land ◽

Lulc Change ◽

Grass Land ◽

Land Use Types ◽

Bare Land

Abstract Background The gradual conversion of rangelands into other land use types is one of the main challenges affecting the sustainable management of rangelands in Teltele. This study aimed to examine the changes, drivers, trends in land use and land cover (LULC), to determine the link between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and forage biomass and the associated impacts of forage biomass production dynamics on the Teltele rangelands in Southern Ethiopia. A Combination of remote sensing data, field interviews, discussion and observations data were used to examine the dynamics of LULC between 1992 and 2019 and forage biomass production. Results The result indicate that there is a marked increase in farm land (35.3%), bare land (13.8%) and shrub land (4.8%), while the reduction found in grass land (54.5%), wet land (69.3%) and forest land (10.5%). The larger change in land observed in both grassland and wetland part was observed during the period from 1995–2000 and 2015–2019, this is due to climate change impact (El-Niño) happened in Teltele rangeland during the year 1999 and 2016 respectively. The quantity of forage in different land use/cover types, grass land had the highest average amount of forage biomass of 2092.3 kg/ha, followed by wetland with 1231 kg/ha, forest land with 1191.3 kg/ha, shrub land with 180 kg/ha, agricultural land with 139.5 kg/ha and bare land with 58.1 kg/ha. Conclusions The significant linkage observed between NDVI and LULC change types (when a high NDVI value, the LULC changes also shows positive value or an increasing trend). In addition, NDVI value directly related to the greenness status of vegetation occurred on each LULC change types and its value directly linkage forage biomass production pattern with grassland land use types. 64.8% (grass land), 43.3% (agricultural land), 75.1% (forest land), 50.6% (shrub land), 80.5% (bare land) and 75.5% (wet land) more or higher dry biomass production in the wet season compared to the dry season.

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Dynamics of land use and land cover changes in Huluka watershed of Oromia Regional State, Ethiopia

ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH ◽

10.1186/s40068-021-00218-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Gemechu Shale Ogato ◽

Amare Bantider ◽

Davide Geneletti

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Sustainable Development ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Body ◽

Average Rate ◽

Land Cover Changes ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Forest Land ◽

Planning And Management ◽

Bare Land

Abstract Background Land use and land cover changes in urbanized watersheds of developing countries like Ethiopia are underpinned by the complex interaction of different actors, driving forces, and the land itself. Land conversion due to residential development, economic growth, and transportation is identified as the most serious environmental pressure on urbanized landscapes of the world. It results in the degradation of natural vegetation and significant increases in impervious surfaces. The purpose of the study was to analyze spatio-teporal changes in land use and land cover in the Huluka watershed with implications to sustainable development in the watershed. Results Forest land, cultivated land, urban built-up, bush/shrub land, bare land, grassland, and water body were identified as the seven types of land use and land cover in the Huluka watershed. Forest land decreased by 59.3% at an average rate of 164.52 ha/year between 1979 and 2017. Bush/ shrub land decreased by 68.2% at an average rate of 318.71 ha/year between 1979 and 2017. Grassland decreased by 32.7% at an average rate of 228.65 ha/year between 1979 and 2017. Water body decreased by 5.1% at an average rate of 1.06 ha/year between 1979 and 2017. Urban built-up area increased by 351% at an average rate of 16.20 ha/year between 1979 and 2017. Cultivated land increased by 105.3% at an average rate of 692.76 ha/year between 1979 and 2017. Bare land increased by 41.9% at an average rate of 4.00 ha/year between 1979 and 2017. Infrastructural and agricultural expansion, increased demand for wood, local environmental and biophysical drivers, rapid human population growth, economic drivers, technological drivers, policy and institutional drivers, and local socio-cultural drivers were perceived by residents as drivers of land use and land cover changes. Increased flooding risk, increased soil erosion, increased sedimentation into water resources like lakes and rivers, decrease in soil fertility, loss of biodiversity, loss of springs, decrease in annual rainfall, and increase in heat during the dry season were perceived by residents as negative local effects of land use and land cover changes. Conclusions Changes in land use and land cover in the study water shade imply the need for integrating sustainable watershed planning and management into natural resources management strategies. In other words, practices of appropriate land use planning and management, family planning, participatory planning and management, appropriate environmental impact assessment (EIA), and proper planning and management of development projects and programmes are of paramount importance to promote sustainable development in the Huluka watershed and beyond.

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Dynamics of forage and land cover changes in Teltele rangeland Southern, Ethiopia. Using geospatial and field survey data

10.21203/rs.3.rs-21275/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yeneayehu Fenetahun ◽

Wang Yong-dong ◽

Yuan You ◽

Xu Xinwen

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Biomass Production ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Southern Ethiopia ◽

Forest Land ◽

Lulc Change ◽

Grass Land ◽

Land Use Types ◽

Bare Land

Abstract The gradual conversion of rangelands into other land use types is one of the main challenges affecting the sustainable management of rangelands in Teltele. This study aimed to examine the changes, drivers, trends in land use and land cover (LULC), to determine the link between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and forage biomass and the associated impacts of forage biomass production dynamics on the Teltele rangelands in Southern Ethiopia. A Combination of remote sensing data, field interviews, discussion and observations data were used to examine the dynamics of LULC between 1992–2019 and forage biomass production. The Results indicate that there is a marked increase in farm land (35.3%), bare land (13.8%) and shrub land (4.8%), while the reduction found in grass land (54.5%), wet land (69.3%) and forest land (10.5%). The larger change in land observed in both grassland and wetland part was observed during the period from 1995–2000 and 2015–2019, this is due to climate change impact (El-Niño) happened in Teltele rangeland during the year 1999 and 2016 respectively. The quantity of forage in different land use/cover types, grass land had the highest average amount of forage biomass of 2,092.3 kg/ha, followed by wetland with 1,231 kg/ha, forest land with 1,191.3 kg/ha, shrub land with 180 kg/ha, agricultural land with 139.5 kg/ha and bare land with 58.1 kg/ha. The significant linkage observed between NDVI and LULC change types (when a high NDVI value, the LULC changes also shows positive value or an increasing trend). In addition, NDVI value directly related to the greenness status of vegetation occurred on each LULC change types and its value directly linkage forage biomass production pattern with grassland land use types. 64.8% (grass land), 43.3% (agricultural land), 75.1% (forest land), 50.6% (shrub land), 80.5% (bare land) and 75.5% (wet land) more or higher dry biomass production in the wet season compared to the dry season.

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Dynamics of forage and land cover changes in Teltele rangeland Southern, Ethiopia. Using geospatial and field survey data

10.21203/rs.3.rs-21275/v2 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Yeneayehu Fenetahun ◽

Wang Yong-dong ◽

Yuan You ◽

Xu Xinwen

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Biomass Production ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Southern Ethiopia ◽

Forest Land ◽

Lulc Change ◽

Grass Land ◽

Land Use Types ◽

Bare Land

Abstract Background: The gradual conversion of rangelands into other land use types is one of the main challenges affecting the sustainable management of rangelands in Teltele. This study aimed to examine the changes, drivers, trends in land use and land cover (LULC), to determine the link between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and forage biomass and the associated impacts of forage biomass production dynamics on the Teltele rangelands in Southern Ethiopia. A Combination of remote sensing data, field interviews, discussion and observations data were used to examine the dynamics of LULC between 1992-2019 and forage biomass production. Results: The result indicate that there is a marked increase in farm land (35.3%), bare land (13.8%) and shrub land (4.8%), while the reduction found in grass land (54.5%), wet land (69.3%) and forest land (10.5%). The larger change in land observed in both grassland and wetland part was observed during the period from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, this is due to climate change impact (El-Niño) happened in Teltele rangeland during the year 1999 and 2016 respectively. The quantity of forage in different land use/cover types, grass land had the highest average amount of forage biomass of 2,092.3 kg/ha, followed by wetland with 1,231 kg/ha, forest land with 1,191.3 kg/ha, shrub land with 180kg/ha, agricultural land with 139.5 kg/ha and bare land with 58.1 kg/ha. Conclusions: The significant linkage observed between NDVI and LULC change types (when a high NDVI value, the LULC changes also shows positive value or an increasing trend). In addition, NDVI value directly related to the greenness status of vegetation occurred on each LULC change types and its value directly linkage forage biomass production pattern with grassland land use types. 64.8% (grass land), 43.3% (agricultural land), 75.1% (forest land), 50.6% (shrub land), 80.5% (bare land) and 75.5% (wet land) more or higher dry biomass production in the wet season compared to the dry season.

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An Analysis of Urban Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Blantyre City, Southern Malawi (1994–2018)

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12062377 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 2377 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

John Mawenda ◽

Teiji Watanabe ◽

Ram Avtar

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Urban Land ◽

Urban Land Use ◽

Sustainable Growth ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Support Vector ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Lulc Changes ◽

Bare Land

Rapid and unplanned urban growth has adverse environmental and social consequences. This is prominent in sub-Saharan Africa where the urbanisation rate is high and characterised by the proliferation of informal settlements. It is, therefore, crucial that urban land use/land cover (LULC) changes be investigated in order to enhance effective planning and sustainable growth. In this paper, the spatial and temporal LULC changes in Blantyre city were studied using the integration of remotely sensed Landsat imageries of 1994, 2007 and 2018, and a geographic information system (GIS). The supervised classification method using the support vector machine algorithm was applied to generate the LULC maps. The study also analysed the transition matrices derived from the classified map to identify prominent processes of changes for planning prioritisation. The results showed that the built-up class, which included urban structures such as residential, industrial, commercial and public installations, increased in the 24-year study period. On the contrary, bare land, which included vacant lands, open spaces with little or no vegetation, hilly clear-cut areas and other fallow land, declined over the study period. This was also the case with the vegetation class (i.e., forests, parks, permanent tree-covered areas and shrubs). The post-classification results revealed that the LULC changes during the second period (2007–2018) were faster compared to the first period (1994–2007). Furthermore, the results revealed that the increase in built-up areas systematically targeted the bare land and avoided the vegetated areas, and that the vegetated areas were systematically cleared to bare land during the study period (1994–2018). The findings of this study have revealed the pressure of human activities on the land and natural environment in Blantyre and provided the basis for sustainable urban planning and development in Blantyre city.

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Linking Changes in Land Cover and Land Use of the Lower Mekong Basin to Instream Nitrate and Total Suspended Solids Variations

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12072992 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (7) ◽

pp. 2992 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Kongmeng Ly ◽

Graciela Metternicht ◽

Lucy Marshall

Keyword(s):

Water Quality ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Suspended Solids ◽

Total Suspended Solids ◽

Mekong River ◽

Forest Land ◽

Lulc Changes ◽

Correlation Analyses ◽

Forest Land Cover

Population growth and economic development are driving changes in land use/land cover (LULC) of the transboundary Lower Mekong River Basin (LMB), posing a serious threat to the integrity of the river system. Using data collected on a monthly basis over 30 years (1985–2015) at 14 stations located along the Lower Mekong river, this study explores whether spatiotemporal relationships exist between LULC changes and instream concentrations of total suspended solids (TSS) and nitrate—as proxies of water quality. The results show seasonal influences where temporal patterns of instream TSS and nitrate concentrations mirror patterns detected for discharge. Changes in LULC influenced instream TSS and nitrate levels differently over time and space. The seasonal Mann–Kendall (SMK) confirmed significant reduction of instream TSS concentrations at six stations (p < 0.05), while nitrate levels increased at five stations (p < 0.05), predominantly in stations located in the upper section of the basin where forest areas and mountainous topography dominate the landscape. Temporal correlation analyses point to the conversion of grassland (r = −0.61, p < 0.01) to paddy fields (r = 0.63, p < 0.01) and urban areas (r = 0.44, p < 0.05) as the changes in LULC that mostly impact instream nitrate contents. The reduction of TSS appears influenced by increased forest land cover (r = −0.72, p < 0.01) and by the development and operation of hydropower projects in the upper Mekong River. Spatial correlation analyses showed positive associations between forest land cover and instream concentrations of TSS (r = 0.64, p = 0.01) and nitrate (r = 0.54, p < 0.05), indicating that this type of LULC was heavily disturbed and harvested, resulting in soil erosion and runoff of nitrate rich sediment during the Wet season. Our results show that enhanced understanding of how LULC changes influence instream water quality at spatial and temporal scales is vital for assessing potential impacts of future land and water resource development on freshwater resources of the LMB.

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Land Use Land Cover Changes and Their Effects on Surface Air Temperature in Myanmar and Thailand

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su131910942 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 10942

Author(s):

Khun La Yaung ◽

Amnat Chidthaisong ◽

Atsamon Limsakul ◽

Pariwate Varnakovida ◽

Can Trong Nguyen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Surface Air Temperature ◽

Forest Conversion ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Forest Land ◽

Lulc Changes ◽

Average Maximum

Land use land cover (LULC) change is one of the main drivers contributing to global climate change. It alters surface hydrology and energy balance between the land surface and atmosphere. However, its impacts on surface air temperature have not been well understood in a dynamic region of LULC changes like Southeast Asia (SEA). This study quantitatively examined the contribution of LULC changes to temperature trends in Myanmar and Thailand as the typical parts of SEA during 1990–2019 using the “observation minus reanalysis” (OMR) method. Overall, the average maximum, mean, and minimum temperatures obtained from OMR trends indicate significant warming trends of 0.17 °C/10a, 0.20 °C/10a, and 0.42 °C/10a, respectively. The rates of minimum temperature increase were larger than maximum and mean temperatures. The decreases of forest land and cropland, and the expansions of settlements land fractions were strongly correlated with the observed warming trends. It was found that the effects of forest land converted to settlement land on warming were higher than forest conversion to cropland. A comprehensive discussion on this study could provide scientific information for the future development of more sustainable land use planning to mitigate and adapt to climate change at the local and national levels.

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Evaluating Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Gaborone Dam Catchment, Botswana, from 1984–2015 Using GIS and Remote Sensing

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11195174 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (19) ◽

pp. 5174 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Botlhe Matlhodi ◽

Piet K. Kenabatho ◽

Bhagabat P. Parida ◽

Joyce G. Maphanyane

Keyword(s):

Remote Sensing ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Driving Forces ◽

Landsat Imagery ◽

Global Environmental Change ◽

Geographical Information ◽

Lulc Changes ◽

Bare Land

Land use land cover (LULC) change is one of the major driving forces of global environmental change in many developing countries. In this study, LULC changes were evaluated in the Gaborone dam catchment in Botswana between 1984 and 2015. The catchment is a major source of water supply to Gaborone city and its surrounding areas. The study employed Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) using Landsat imagery of 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2015. Image classification for each of these imageries was done through supervised classification using the Maximum Likelihood Classifier. Six major LULC categories, cropland, bare land, shrub land, built-up area, tree savanna and water bodies, were identified in the catchment. It was observed that shrub land and tree savanna were the major LULC categories between 1984 and 2005 while shrub land and cropland dominated the catchment area in 2015. The rates of change were generally faster in the 1995–2005 and 2005–2015 periods. For these periods, built-up areas increased by 59.8 km2 (108.3%) and 113.2 km2 (98.5%), respectively, while bare land increased by 50.3 km2 (161.1%) and 99.1 km2 (121.5%). However, in the overall period between 1984 and 2015, significant losses were observed for shrub land, 763 km2 (29.4%) and tree savanna, 674 km2 (71.3%). The results suggest the need to closely monitor LULC changes at a catchment scale to facilitate water resource management and to maintain a sustainable environment.

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Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in An Arid Piedmont Plain in the Middle Reaches of the Kaxgar River Basin, Xinjiang, China

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information ◽

10.3390/ijgi9020087 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 87 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Tianfeng Wei ◽

Donghui Shangguan ◽

Xia Shen ◽

Yongjian Ding ◽

Shuhua Yi

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Economic Development ◽

Land Cover ◽

River Basin ◽

Tarim River Basin ◽

Cultivated Land ◽

Piedmont Plain ◽

Lulc Changes ◽

Bare Land ◽

Land Water

The Kaxgar River Basin, a key section of the Tarim River Basin, is a typical ecologically fragile region that has undergone rapid changes to its spatial patterns over the preceding few decades. In particular, the expansion of salinized land has posed a severe threat to ecological restoration and economic development. This study monitored the rates and patterns of land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the plain area of Aketao County in the middle reaches of the Kaxgar River Basin. Five Landsat images (captured in 1990, 1998, 2002, 2013, and 2018) were divided into seven LULC types: built-up land, cultivated land, woodland and grassland, light-moderate salinized land, heavy salinized land, water areas, and bare land. Subsequently, their dynamic processes were analyzed. The results revealed that in 1990, the dominant LULCs were cultivated land, woodland and grassland, and bare land. Throughout the study period (from 1990 to 2018), the coverage of built-up land, cultivated land, bare land, water areas, and light-moderate salinized land increased; by contrast, that of the other LULC types decreased. The most marked LULC changes were the expansion of light-moderate salinized land (by 6.2% of the study area) and the shrinkage of woodland and grassland (by 9.4% of the study area). Almost all the analyzed LULC types underwent conversion to other types; such conversion occurred most frequently between 1998 and 2018. The conversions of woodland and grassland into cultivated land and light-moderate salinized land were the most notable phenomena. Another highly evident change was the conversion of heavy salinized land into bare land. These results revealed that the expansion of salinized land and the shrinkage of woodland and grassland in the study area were the most severe environmental changes. Therefore, ecological protection and salinization control are urgently required to enable local economic development while not exceeding the environmental carrying capacity and ensuring the safety of the “green corridor” in the lower reaches of the Kaxgar River Basin.

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Analysis of the Future Land Use Land Cover Changes in the Gaborone Dam Catchment Using CA-Markov Model: Implications on Water Resources

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13132427 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (13) ◽

pp. 2427

Author(s):

Botlhe Matlhodi ◽

Piet K. Kenabatho ◽

Bhagabat P. Parida ◽

Joyce G. Maphanyane

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Cover ◽

Markov Model ◽

Water Resource ◽

Water Body ◽

Environmental Changes ◽

Resource Planning ◽

Catchment Management ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Lulc Changes

Land use/land cover (LULC) changes have been observed in the Gaborone dam catchment since the 1980s. A comprehensive analysis of future LULC changes is therefore necessary for the purposes of future land use and water resource planning and management. Recent advances in geospatial modelling techniques and the availability of remotely sensed data have become central to the monitoring and assessment of both past and future environmental changes. This study employed the cellular automata and Markov chain (CA-Markov) model combinations to simulate future LULC changes in the Gaborone dam catchment. Classified Landsat images from 1984, 1995, 2005 and 2015 were used to simulate the likely LULCs in 2015 and 2035. Model validation compared the simulated and observed LULCs of 2015 and showed a high level of agreement with Kappa variation estimates of Kno (0.82), Kloc (0.82) and Kstandard (0.76). Simulation results indicated a projected increase of 26.09%, 65.65% and 55.78% in cropland, built-up and bare land categories between 2015 and 2035, respectively. Reductions of 16.03%, 28.76% and 21.89% in areal coverage are expected for shrubland, tree savanna and water body categories, respectively. An increase in built-up and cropland areas is anticipated in order to meet the population’s demand for residential, industry and food production, which should be taken into consideration in future plans for the sustainability of the catchment. In addition, this may lead to water quality and quantity (both surface and groundwater) deterioration in the catchment. Moreover, water body reductions may contribute to water shortages and exacerbate droughts in an already water-stressed catchment. The loss of vegetal cover and an increase in built-up areas may result in increased runoff incidents, leading to flash floods. The output of the study provides useful information for land use planners and water resource managers to make better decisions in improving future land use policies and formulating catchment management strategies within the framework of sustainable land use planning and water resource management.

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