scholarly journals Past Exposure to Macroeconomic Shocks and Populist Attitudes in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Despina Gavresi ◽  
Anastasia Litina

Author(s):  
Juan R. Castro

The document conducts an empirical investigation on the volatility of the Chilean exchange rate regime, using a model of Objective Zones. Through the use of the ARCH model, the document tests the volatility of the exchange rate in the presence of different levels of international reserves and other macroeconomic shocks. The results show that domestic credit, domestic debt and external debt have the greatest impact on the volatility of the variables studied, especially when compared with other fundamental variables. The variance of the exchange rate is heterosedastic but it is not persistent, which implies that the exchange rate is stable, probably when it oscillates between two bands. The volatility of the exchange rate fluctuates to a greater extent in the face of changes in internal and external debt, than with the other variables used.







Barely two decades after the Asian financial crisis Asia was suddenly confronted with multiple challenges originating outside the region: the 2008 global financial crisis, the European debt crisis, and, finally developed economies’ implementation of unconventional monetary policies. Especially the implementation of quantitative easing (QE), ultra-low interest rate policies, and negative interest rate policies by a number of large central banks has given rise to concerns over financial stability and international capital flows. One of the regions most profoundly affected by the crisis was Asia due to its high dependence on international trade and international financial linkages. The objective of this book is to explain how macroeconomic shocks stemming from the global financial crisis and recent unconventional monetary policies in developed economies have affected macroeconomic and financial stability in emerging markets, with a particular focus on Asia. In particular, the book covers the following thematic areas: (i) the spillover effects of macroeconomic shocks on financial markets and flows in emerging economies; (ii) the impact of recent macroeconomic shocks on real economies in emerging markets; and (iii) key challenges for the monetary, exchange rate, trade, and macroprudential policies of developing economies, especially Asian economies, and suggestions and recommendations to increase resiliency against external shocks.



Author(s):  
Donato Masciandaro ◽  
Davide Romelli

This chapter investigates the endogenous evolution of central bank institutional design over the past four decades. From a theoretical perspective, it employs a stylized political economy model to highlight some key determinants of the level of central bank independence as a function of macroeconomic shocks and political economy characteristics of countries. It then employs recently developed dynamic indices of central bank design to describe the evolution of central bank independence over the period 1972–2014. In a sample of sixty-five countries, it shows that the increasing trend in central bank independence during 1972–2007 has been reversing after the 2008 financial crisis, mainly due to significant changes to the roles of central banks in banking supervision. The authors find that this evolution can be related to several macroeconomic shocks, such as inflationary, fiscal, and exchange-rate shocks.



Author(s):  
Anna Watson

AbstractThe paper examines the impact of trade credit on cyclical fluctuations in international trade. It provides new empirical evidence based on firm-level UK and Irish data showing that exporters use trade credit more actively and intensively than non-exporters. The study introduces inter-firm lending into an open economy general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms and endogenous entry into the exports market. It demonstrates that trade credit amplifies the impact of macroeconomic shocks on international trade both along the intensive and extensive margins and that it significantly contributes to the high trade income elasticity observed in the data.



2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 93-116
Author(s):  
N. Mupunga ◽  
P. Le Roux


2018 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 384-387
Author(s):  
Victoria Perez ◽  
Joseph Benitez ◽  
Eric Seiber

In 2016, total Medicaid spending, $574.2 billion, represented one-third of state budgets. Descriptive studies indicate that state policymakers adjust social welfare programs during times of financial distress, particularly Medicaid. The challenge of formally estimating this effect is that macroeconomic shocks increase Medicaid enrollment and state-level financial stress. We use an exogenous measure of Medicaid generosity to estimate the elasticity of Medicaid generosity with respect to financial conditions. We find Medicaid generosity is not adjusted during periods of fiscal distress, whether anticipated or not. Instead, we find a counter-cyclical Medicaid effect with generosity increasing with increases in the unemployment rate.



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