scholarly journals Multiscale attribution analysis for assessing effects of changing environment on runoff: case study of the Upstream Yangtze River in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Manlin Wang ◽  
Juan Chen ◽  
Ping-an Zhong ◽  
Xiufeng Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Changing Environment ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Attribution Analysis ◽  
Jialing River ◽  
Runoff Change

Abstract Evaluating the changes in runoff and analyzing its attribution under the changing environment is of great significance to water resources management. In this study, eight hydrological stations at the outlets of tributaries of the Upstream Yangtze River are selected. Based on the observed runoff data from 1951 to 2013, the spatial-temporal characteristics in runoff change are identified from time series analysis. Our results show that runoff in the Upstream Yangtze River decreases significantly with a rate of −7.6 km3 per ten years in general. The most significant declines in runoff are observed in the mainstream, Minjiang River, Tuojiang River, and Jialing River, while slight increase in runoff is found in the source area of the Yangtze River. Furthermore, the effects on runoff change from climate change and human activities are evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and modified Fixing-Changing (MFC) method at multiple scales. Our results suggest that the main contributions to runoff change are from climate change variabilities (70%), land use/cover change (LUCC, 10%), and other human influence (20%). When examined at different spatial and temporal scales, climate change always appears to be the main cause of runoff change, although its contribution decreases over time.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Climate and Anthropic Factors on Runoff and Vegetation Changes in the Source Area of the Yangtze River from 1982 to 2016

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 612
Author(s):  
Guangxing Ji ◽  
Huiyun Song ◽  
Hejie Wei ◽  
Leying Wu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
The Impact

Analyzing the temporal variation of runoff and vegetation and quantifying the impact of anthropic factors and climate change on vegetation and runoff variation in the source area of the Yangtze River (SAYR), is of great significance for the scientific response to the ecological protection of the region. Therefore, the Budyko hypothesis method and multiple linear regression method were used to quantitatively calculate the contribution rates of climate change and anthropic factors to runoff and vegetation change in the SAYR. It was found that: (1) The runoff, NDVI, precipitation, and potential evaporation in the SAYR from 1982 to 2016 all showed an increasing trend. (2) The mutation year of runoff data from 1982 to 2016 in the SAYR is 2004, and the mutation year of NDVI data from 1982 to 2016 in the SAYR is 1998. (3) The contribution rates of precipitation, potential evaporation and anthropic factors to runoff change of the SAYR are 75.98%, −9.35%, and 33.37%, respectively. (4) The contribution rates of climatic factors and anthropic factors to vegetation change of the SAYR are 38.56% and 61.44%, respectively.

scholarly journals Increasing Rainfall and Runoff in Alpine Mountainous Areas Can't Completely Eliminate Drought Driven by Temperature Rise 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Deng ◽  
Zhifeng Guo ◽  
Fuquan Ni ◽  
Lianqing Xue ◽  
Yiping Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Rise ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Scientific Significance ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Drought research under climate change is of great scientific significance. For Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC), temperature and rainfall in climate change, which factor has a greater impact on runoff change in alpine mountainous areas? Can the increase of rainfall in the alpine mountainous area completely eliminate the drought driven by temperature rise? This study takes the upper reaches of Heihe River basin (URHRB) as an example, the URHRB's Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is constructed. Based on 58 scenarios and The Budyko Framework, here we show that a)climate change has a greater contribution to runoff than LUCC, effect of increased rainfall greater than temperature rising on runoff in alpine mountainous area; b)the drought of 57.14% of UHRRB’s sub-basins have eased, 42.86% of the sub-basins is more serious, the increase in rainfall can't completely eliminate the drought driven by temperature rise. This study coupling SWAT simulation with Budyko Framework and other methods solves the problem of lack of data in alpine mountainous areas, and more accurately quantifies the impact of climate change, LUCC on runoff changes, realizing theoretical and method innovation. The results of this study provide a scientific paradigm for solving scientific problems in similar regions in China and other countries, and have important promotion value.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal dimensions of a reproductive life history trait in a spiny lizard radiation (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julián A. Velasco ◽  
Gustavo Campillo-García ◽  
Jesús Pinto-Ledezma ◽  
Oscar Flores-Villela
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life History ◽  
Multiple Scales ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Life History Trait ◽  
Evolutionary Transitions ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Reproductive Life ◽  
Taxonomic Groups ◽  
Reproductive Life History

AbstractThe ecological and evolutionary factors underlying life history trait variation is one of the most interesting topics in biology. Although many studies have evaluated either macroevolutionary or macroecological patterns of life history traits across several taxonomic groups, only few studies have attempted to integrate both dimensions in a single analytical framework. Here, we study how parity mode evolved across multiple scales in the radiation of spiny lizards (Squamata: Phrynosomatidae). We adopted macroecological and macroevolutionary approaches to explore how climate across spatial and temporal scales drives the evolution of viviparity in this lizard radiation. We find support for a weak signature of current climates on the geographical distribution of oviparous and viviparous species. By contrast, we detected that evolutionary transitions from oviparity to viviparity reach a peak during the MidMiocene Climatic Optimum — a period with a profound climate change event. We suggest that this abrupt climatic cooling promoted evolutionary transitions to viviparity simultaneously across three clades in the spiny lizard radiation. The decoupling in macroecological and macroevolutionary patterns found here suggests that past climate change has played a larger role than current climates in the spatial and temporal diversification of this reproductive life history trait.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidong Zeng ◽  
Chesheng Zhan ◽  
Fubao Sun ◽  
Hong Du ◽  
Feiyu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Integrated Method ◽  
Climate Elasticity ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Changes

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

scholarly journals Using Budyko-Type Equations for Separating the Impacts of Climate and Vegetation Change on Runoff in the Source Area of the Yellow River

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3418
Author(s):  
Dan Yan ◽  
Zhizhu Lai ◽  
Guangxing Ji
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Source Area ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Potential Evaporation ◽  
Runoff Change

Assessing the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River can provide support for water management in the Yellow River Basin. This paper firstly uses a multiple linear regression method to evaluate the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the vegetation change in the source area of the Yellow River. Next, the paper uses the Budyko hypothesis method to calculate the contribution rates of climatic factors (including precipitation, potential evaporation, and subsequent vegetation changes) and vegetation changes caused by human activities to the runoff change of the Tangnaihai Hydrometric Station. The results showed that: (1) the annual runoff and precipitation in the source area of the Yellow River have a downward trend, while the annual potential evaporation and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) show an increasing trend; (2) The contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the vegetation change in the source area of the Yellow River is 62.79% and 37.21%, respectively; (3) The runoff change became more and more sensitive to changes in climate and underlying surface characteristic parameters; (4) The contribution rates of climatic factors (including precipitation, potential evaporation, and subsequent vegetation changes) and vegetation changes caused by human activities to the runoff change at Tangnaihai Hydrological Station are 75.33% and 24.67%, respectively; (5) The impact of precipitation on runoff reduction is more substantial than that of potential evaporation.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis on Regional Differentiation of Water Resources Variation in the Yangtze River Basin under the Context of Global Warming

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1809
Author(s):  
Xuchun Ye ◽  
Zengxin Zhang ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu ◽  
Jia Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Regional Differentiation ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
Attribution Analysis ◽  
The Yangtze River Basin

Characterized by increasing surface air temperature, global warming has altered the hydrological cycle at global and regional scales. In order to adapt water resources management under the context of global warming, attribution analysis on regional differentiation of water resources in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) was conducted in this study. Meteoro-hydrological variations across the basin were examined for the period 1960–2013, and then a statistic-based method was applied in quantifying the contributions of climate variability and human activities on annual runoff variations in different tributary sub-basins in the YRB. Our observation indicates that both the annual increasing rate and the inter-annual fluctuations of temperature in China and in the YRB were higher than that of the global average since the turn of the century. Climate change analysis indicates that the YRB experienced a hot-wet period during 1994–2002 and a hot-dry period during 2003–2013, since the step change of temperature in 1993. Contributions of climate change and human activities on runoff variations varied spatially in the basin. With reference to the baseline period of 1960–1993, the contribution of climate change played a dominant role in most regions of the basin, especially in those upstream sub-basins. The effect of human activities in the basin was quite complicated, not only its regional differentiation, but also its contribution were opposite during the hot-wet period and the hot-dry period in some sub-basins. The result of this study is helpful in understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on water resources variation in both temporal and spatial scales.

scholarly journals Detecting Runoff Variation of the Mainstream in Weihe River

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Huang ◽  
Jingjing Fan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Attribution Analysis ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Weihe River ◽  
Wavelet Variance ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
Groundwater Consumption ◽  
Variation Point

The runoff change in Weihe River is significantly decreasing with the climate change and the huge increasing of human activities. The analysis of the variation changes of runoff would provide scientific understanding of Weihe River basin and similar basins. Mann-Kendall method is used to detect the variation changes of annual and seasonal runoff of 1919–2011 at the outlet station, that is, Huaxian station, in the mainstream of Weihe River. The results show that the runoff variation point is 1990, and there were significant changes in trends and periodicals, corroborated by wavelet variance analysis, Kendall’s rank tests, and trends persistence test, in annual, seasonal, and monthly runoff at the variation point of 1990. Attribution analysis indicates that the primary drivers of the shift in runoff variation were human activities rather than climate change, as water consumption (particularly groundwater consumption) increased sharply in the 1990s.

scholarly journals Projection of runoff and sediment yield under coordinated climate change and urbanization scenarios in Doam dam watershed, Korea

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 235-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young Do Kim ◽  
Jung Min Kim ◽  
Boosik Kang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Rate Of Increase

A hydro-environmental model chain in the Doam dam basin, Korea, was developed for an impact assessment under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B scenario. The feasible downscaling scheme composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) and non-stationary quantile mapping was applied to the GCM (Global Climate Model) output. The impacts under climate and land use change scenarios were examined and projected using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The daily SWAT model was calibrated and validated for 2003–2004 and 2006–2008, respectively. Meanwhile the monthly SS (suspended solids) was calibrated and validated for 1999–2001 and 2007–2009, respectively. The simulation results illustrated that under the assumption of 1–5% urbanization of the forest area, the hydrologic impact is relatively negligible and the climate change impacts are dominant over the urbanization impacts. Additionally the partial impacts of land use changes were analyzed under five different scenarios: partial change of forest to urban (PCFUr), to bare field, to grassland, to upland crop (PCFUp), and to agriculture (PCFA). The analysis of the runoff change shows the highest rate of increase, 73.57% in April, for the PCFUp scenario. The second and third highest rate increases, 37.83% and 31.45% in May, occurred under the PCFA and PCFUr scenarios, respectively.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document