Regional estimation of short duration rainfall extremes

1998 ◽  
Vol 37 (11) ◽  
pp. 15-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. T. V. Nguyen ◽  
T. D. Nguyen ◽  
H. Wang

The present study proposes a method for estimating the distribution of short-duration (e.g., 1 hour) extreme rainfalls at sites where data for the time interval of interest do not exist, but rainfall data for longer-duration (e.g., 1 day) are available (partially-gaged sites). The proposed method is based on the recently developed “scale-invariance” (or “scaling”) theory. In this study, the scaling concept implies that statistical properties of the extreme rainfall processes for different temporal scales are related to each other by a scale-changing operator involving only the scale ratio. Further, it is assumed that these hydrologic series possess a simple scaling behaviour. The suggested methodology has been applied to extreme rainfall data from a network of 14 recording raingages in Quebec (Canada). The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was used to estimate the rainfall quantiles. Results of the numerical application have indicated that for partially-gaged sites the proposed scaling method is able to provide extreme rainfall estimates which are comparable with those based on available at-site rainfall data.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Cross ◽  
Christian Onof ◽  
Hugo Winter ◽  
Pietro Bernardara

Abstract. Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In a warming climate, the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere is greater which increases the potential for short duration high intensity storm events. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it is emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15 and 60 minute resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Médard Noukpo Agbazo ◽  
Gabin Koto N'Gobi ◽  
Basile Kounouhewa ◽  
Eric Alamou ◽  
Abel Afouda ◽  
...  

<p>Rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are of particular importance in water resources management, for example, in urban hydrology, for the design of hydraulic structures and the estimation of the flash flood risk in small catchments. IDF curves describe rainfall intensity as a function of duration and return period, and they are significant for water resources planning, as well as for the design of hydraulic constructions and structures. In this study, scaling properties of extreme rainfall are examined to establish the scaling behavior of statistical non-central moment over different durations. IDF curves and equations are set up for all stations by using the parameter obtained from scaling behavior, the location and scale parameters μ24 and σ24 of the Gumbel distribution (EVI) sample of annual maximum 1440 min rainfall data. In another hand, we have established the IDF curves for ten selected rain gauge stations in the Northern (Oueme Valley) parts of Benin Republic, West Africa by using the simple scaling approach. Analysis of rainfall intensities (5 min and 1440 min rainfall data) from the ten rainfall stations shows that rainfall in north-Benin displays scales invariance property from 5 min to 1440 min. For time scaling, the statistical properties of rainfall follow the hypothesis of simple scaling. Therefore, the simple scaling model applies to the rainfall in (Oueme Valley). Hence, the simple scaling model is thought to be a viable approach to estimate IDF curves of hourly and sub-hourly rainfall form rainfall projections. The obtained scaling exponents are less than 1 and range from 0.23 to 0.59. The empirical model shows that the scaling procedure is a good estimator as it is more efficient and gives more accurate estimates compared with the observed rainfall than the traditional method which only consists the Gumbel model in all stations for lower return periods (T&lt;5 years) but not for higher return periods.</p><p> </p><p><strong>Estimación de las Curvas IDF de Extrema Precipitación por Escala Simple en el Valle Oueme, al Norte de la República de Benín (Africa occidental)</strong></p><p> </p><p><strong>Resumen</strong></p><p>Las curvas de precipitación Intensidad-Duración-Frecuencia (IDF) son de particular importancia en el manejo de los recursos hídricos, como es el caso de la hidrología urbana o para el diseño de estructuras hidráulicas y la estimación del riesgo de crecidas en pequeñas captaciones. Las curvas IDF describen la intensidad de las precipitaciones como una función con períodos de duración y recurrencia, lo que las hace significativas en la planeación de recursos hídricos así como en el diseño de construcciones y estructuras hidráulicas. Este estudio examina las propiedades de escala en precipitaciones extremas para establecer un comportamiento en momentos estadísticos marginales en diferentes períodos de duración. Se establecieron las curvas IDF y las ecuaciones para todas las estaciones a partir del parámetro obtenido del comportamiento de escala, la ubicación y los parámetros de escala μ24 and σ24 de la muestra de información de precipitación máxima anual de 1440 minutos de la distribución de Gumbel (EVI). Por otro lado, se establecieron las curvas IDF para 10 estaciones pluviométricas seleccionadas en el Valle Oueme, al norte de la República de Benín (África occidental), con el uso de aproximación simple de escala. El análisis de las intensidades de precipitación en las diez estaciones pluviométricas muestra que la precipitación en el norte de Benín expone propiedades de poca variación en la escala 5 min y 1440. En el tiempo de escala, las propiedades estadísticas de precipitación confirman la hipótesis de escala simple; además, este modelo so corresponde a la precipitación del Valle Oueme. Por lo tanto, el modelo de escala simple se considera una aproximación viable para estimar las curvas IDF en las proyecciones de precipitación de cada hora y sub-hora. Los exponentes de escala obtenidos son menores a 1 y oscilan de 0,23 a 0,59. El modelo empírico muestra que el procedimiento de escala es un buen estimativo, más eficiente y con cálculos más exactos que el método tradicional, el cual consiste solamente en el modelo Gumbel aplicado en todas las estaciones pluviométricas en períodos de menor recurrencia (T&lt;5 años) pero no en lapsos de mayor recurrencia.</p>


Author(s):  
Hayley J. Fowler ◽  
Haider Ali ◽  
Richard P. Allan ◽  
Nikolina Ban ◽  
Renaud Barbero ◽  
...  

A large number of recent studies have aimed at understanding short-duration rainfall extremes, due to their impacts on flash floods, landslides and debris flows and potential for these to worsen with global warming. This has been led in a concerted international effort by the INTENSE Crosscutting Project of the GEWEX (Global Energy and Water Exchanges) Hydroclimatology Panel. Here, we summarize the main findings so far and suggest future directions for research, including: the benefits of convection-permitting climate modelling; towards understanding mechanisms of change; the usefulness of temperature-scaling relations; towards detecting and attributing extreme rainfall change; and the need for international coordination and collaboration. Evidence suggests that the intensity of long-duration (1 day+) heavy precipitation increases with climate warming close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) rate (6–7% K −1 ), although large-scale circulation changes affect this response regionally. However, rare events can scale at higher rates, and localized heavy short-duration (hourly and sub-hourly) intensities can respond more strongly (e.g. 2 × CC instead of CC). Day-to-day scaling of short-duration intensities supports a higher scaling, with mechanisms proposed for this related to local-scale dynamics of convective storms, but its relevance to climate change is not clear. Uncertainty in changes to precipitation extremes remains and is influenced by many factors, including large-scale circulation, convective storm dynamics andstratification. Despite this, recent research has increased confidence in both the detectability and understanding of changes in various aspects of intense short-duration rainfall. To make further progress, the international coordination of datasets, model experiments and evaluations will be required, with consistent and standardized comparison methods and metrics, and recommendations are made for these frameworks. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks’.


MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-46
Author(s):  
U. C. KOTHYARI ◽  
S. K. GARG

Depth Area Duration (DAD) analysis for the extreme rainfall events forms an important step in the hydrological design for the water resources structures. Review of literature reveals that enormous amount of work has been done concerning the DAD analysis for large duration (i.e. one day or more) storms. However, no work is reported so far on this aspect for storms having shorter duration. i.e. less than one day: Hourly rainfall data for 36 rainfall stations have been analysed  to develop simple DAD-relationship. This analysis pertains to the catchments of the rivers, namely Ramganga, Gomati, Yamuna  and Ghaghara.    


Author(s):  
Emmanuel Iyamuremye ◽  
Samson W. Wanyonyi ◽  
Drinold A. Mbete

The analysis of climate change, climate variability and their extremes has become more important as they clearly affect the human society and ecology. The impact of climate change is reflected by the change of frequency, duration and intensity of climate extreme events in the environment and on the economic activities. Climate extreme events, such as extreme rainfall threaten to environment, agricultural production and loss of people’s lives. Dodoma daily rainfall data exported from R-Instat software were used after being provided by Tanzania Meteorological Agency. The data were recorded from 1935 to 2011. In this essay, we used climate indices of rainfall to analyse changes in extreme rainfall. We only used 6 rainfall indices related to extremes to describe the change in rainfall extremes. Extreme rainfall indices did not show statistical evidence of a linear trend in Dodoma rainfall extremes for 77 years. Apart from the extreme rainfall indices, this essay utilized two techniques in extreme value theory namely the block maxima approach and peak over threshold approach. The two extreme value approaches were used for univariate sequences of independent identically distributed (iid) random variables. Using Dodomadaily rainfall data, this essay illustrated the power of the extreme value distributions in modelling of extreme rainfall. Annual maxima of Dodoma daily rainfall from 1935 to 2011 were fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model. Gumbel was found to be the best fit of the data after likelihood ratio test of GEV and Gumbel models. The Gumbel model parameters were considered to be stationary and non-stationary in two different models. The stationary Gumbel model was found to be good fit of Dodoma maximum rainfall. Later, the levels at which maximum Dodoma rainfall is expected to exceed once, on average, in a given period of time T = 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 and 100 years, were obtained using stationary Gumbel model. Lastly, the data of exceedances were fitted to     the Generalized Pareto (GP) model under stationary climate assumption.


2002 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
V-T-V. Nguyen ◽  
T.-D. Nguyen ◽  
F. Ashkar

This study proposes two alternative methods for estimating the distribution of extreme rainfalls for sites where rainfall data are available (gaged sites) and for locations without data (ungaged sites). The first method deals with the estimation of short-duration rainfall extremes from available rainfall data for longer durations using the “scale-invariance” concept to account for the relationship between statistical properties of extreme rainfall processes for different time scales. The second method is concerned with the estimation of extreme rainfalls for ungaged sites. This method relies on a new definition of homogeneous sites. Results of the numerical application using data from a network of 10 recording rain gauges in Quebec (Canada) indicate that the proposed methods are able to provide extreme rainfall estimates that are comparable with those based on observed at-site rainfall data.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garry Elvin ◽  
Paras Patel ◽  
Petia Sice ◽  
Chirine Riachy ◽  
Nigel Osborne ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND Heart rate variability (HRV), or the variation in the time interval between consecutive heartbeats, is a proven measure for assessing changes in autonomic activity. An increase in variability suggests an upregulation of the parasympathetic nervous system (PNS). Music was shown to have an effect on the limbic system, respiratory rate, and blood pressure. However, there have been relatively few empirical investigations on the effect of music on HRV compared to mean heart rate (HR). Also, the majority of studies have been experimental rather than interventional, reporting significant changes in HRV as a function of musical characteristics, such as tempo, genre, and valence. OBJECTIVE The aim of this pilot study is to evaluate the impact of short duration music listening on the autonomic nervous system response of healthy adults. METHODS Six participants (three males and three females) were tested to investigate the effect of listening to music on HR and HRV. Electrocardiographic (ECG) data was recorded at a sampling rate of 1000 Hz using an eMotion Faros 360 device produced by Bittium Biosignals. The data was collected while the participants listened to four pre-selected songs in a random order separated by a relaxation period of 5 minutes. Data was then cleaned and processed through Kubious HRV 2.0 software. Statistical analysis using Wilcoxon signed rank test was carried out for the time and frequency domains. RESULTS For all but one song that is shorter than 3 minutes (song 1), we observed a statistically significant increase in Standard Deviation of the RR intervals (SDRR) (song 1: P=.125, r=.333; song 2: P=.023, r=.575; song 3: P=.014, r=.635; song 4: P=.014, r=.635) and in the Low Frequency (LF) component of the cardiac spectrogram (song 1: P=.300, r=.151; song 2: P=.038, r=.514; song 3: P=.014, r=.635; song 4: P=.014, r=.635) with a large effect size r, indicating increased HRV. No significant change in mean HR was observed (song 1: P=.173 r=-.272; song 2: P=.058, r=-.454; song 3: P=.125, r=-.333; song 4: P=.232. r=-.212). CONCLUSIONS Listening to pre-selected songs of longer duration than 3 minutes 30 seconds is associated with significant increases in HRV measures, especially SDRR and LF. Music thus has the potential to overcome autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysregulation and thereby benefit health and wellbeing.


2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 388-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Sun ◽  
Ana P. Barros

Abstract Confidence in the estimation of variations in the frequency of extreme events, and specifically extreme precipitation, in response to climate variability and change is key to the development of adaptation strategies. One challenge to establishing a statistical baseline of rainfall extremes is the disparity among the types of datasets (observations versus model simulations) and their specific spatial and temporal resolutions. In this context, a multifractal framework was applied to three distinct types of rainfall data to assess the statistical differences among time series corresponding to individual rain gauge measurements alone—National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), model-based reanalysis [North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) grid points], and satellite-based precipitation products [Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pixels]—for the western United States (west of 105°W). Multifractal analysis provides general objective metrics that are especially adept at describing the statistics of extremes of time series. This study shows that, as expected, multifractal parameters estimated from the NCDC rain gauge dataset map the geography of known hydrometeorological phenomena in the major climatic regions, including the strong orographic gradients from west to east; whereas the NARR parameters reproduce the spatial patterns of NCDC parameters, but the frequency of large rainfall events, the magnitude of maximum rainfall, and the mean intermittency are underestimated. That is, the statistics of the NARR climatology suggest milder extremes than those derived from rain gauge measurements. The spatial distributions of GPCP parameters closely match the NCDC parameters over arid and semiarid regions (i.e., the Southwest), but there are large discrepancies in all parameters in the midlatitudes above 40°N because of reduced sampling. This study provides an alternative independent backdrop to benchmark the use of reanalysis products and satellite datasets to assess the effect of climate change on extreme rainfall.


2016 ◽  
Vol 169 (5) ◽  
pp. 201-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoff J. C. Darch ◽  
Robert T. McSweeney ◽  
Christopher G. Kilsby ◽  
Phillip D. Jones ◽  
Timothy J. Osborn ◽  
...  

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