scholarly journals Alternative Scenario Simulation for Urban Sprawl Based on Population Dynamics: A Methodological Proposal

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 265-281
Author(s):  
Adriano Bressane ◽  
Maurício Tavares da Mota ◽  
Felipe Hashimoto Fengler ◽  
José Arnaldo Frutuoso Roveda ◽  
Sandra Regina Monteiro Masalskiene Roveda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Strategic Decisions ◽  
Applicable Law ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Sanitary Conditions

The urban sprawl implies in the reduction of rural production areas and increases the pressure on the natural spaces. Hence, if the urbanization does not occur properly, it can compromise sanitary conditions, biodiversity, resources and environmental services. This paper aims at presenting a mathematical model to support urban sprawl based on population dynamics, applied as a case study in the Economic Hub of the Metropolitan Region of Sorocaba - MRS. The materials corresponded to census data and urban planning parameters of the applicable law. As a result, it was found that the urban extension of Sorocaba is oversized, and that the maintenance of the current conditions and guidelines will have critical consequences, requiring a change in local politics. We conclude that the proposed model can support strategic decisions, preventing problems related to disordered growth.

scholarly journals Monitoring Urban Sprawl Using Time-Series Data: Famagusta Region of Northern Cyprus

SAGE Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 215824402110074
Author(s):  
Kamyar Fuladlu ◽  
Müge Riza ◽  
Mustafa Ilkan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Great Success ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Northern Cyprus

Monitoring urban sprawl is a controversial topic among scholars. Many studies have tried to employ various methods for monitoring urban sprawl in cases of North American and Northern and Western European cities. Although numerous methods have been applied with great success in various developed countries, they are predominantly impractical for cases of developing Mediterranean European cities that lack reliable census data. Besides, the complexity of the methods made them difficult to perform in underfunded situations. Therefore, this study aims to develop a new multidimensional method that researchers and planners can apply readily in developing Mediterranean European cities. The new method was tested in the Famagusta region of Northern Cyprus, which has been experiencing unplanned growth for the past half-century. In support of this proposal, a detailed review of the existing literature is presented with an emphasis on urban sprawl characteristics. Four characteristics were chosen to monitor urban sprawl’s development in the Famagusta region. The method was structured based on a time-series (2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016) dataset that used remote sensing data and geographical information systems to monitor the urban sprawl. Based on the findings, the Famagusta region experienced rapid growth during the last 15 years. The lack of a masterplan resulted in the uncontrolled expansion of the city in the exurban areas. The development configuration was polycentric and linear in form with single-use composition. Together, the expansion and configuration manifested as more built-up area, scattered development, and increased automobile dependency.

scholarly journals A Model for Analysing the Collective Dynamic Behaviour and Characterising the Exploitation of Population-Based Algorithms

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 159-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikdam Turkey ◽  
Riccardo Poli
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Dynamic Behaviour ◽  
Fitness Landscape ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Levels Of Abstraction ◽  
Collective Dynamic ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Multiple Levels

Several previous studies have focused on modelling and analysing the collective dynamic behaviour of population-based algorithms. However, an empirical approach for identifying and characterising such a behaviour is surprisingly lacking. In this paper, we present a new model to capture this collective behaviour, and to extract and quantify features associated with it. The proposed model studies the topological distribution of an algorithm's activity from both a genotypic and a phenotypic perspective, and represents population dynamics using multiple levels of abstraction. The model can have different instantiations. Here it has been implemented using a modified version of self-organising maps. These are used to represent and track the population motion in the fitness landscape as the algorithm operates on solving a problem. Based on this model, we developed a set of features that characterise the population's collective dynamic behaviour. By analysing them and revealing their dependency on fitness distributions, we were then able to define an indicator of the exploitation behaviour of an algorithm. This is an entropy-based measure that assesses the dependency on fitness distributions of different features of population dynamics. To test the proposed measures, evolutionary algorithms with different crossover operators, selection pressure levels and population handling techniques have been examined, which lead populations to exhibit a wide range of exploitation-exploration behaviours.

scholarly journals Economic Crisis and Peri-Urban Agriculture: A Socio-Environmental Vision

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
Luca Salvati ◽  
Silvia Pili
Keyword(s):  
Urban Agriculture ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Agricultural Landscapes ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Local Actors ◽  
Growth And Change ◽  
New Strategies

In wealthiest countries, urban sprawl and peri-urban agricultural landscapes are strictly interconnected issues, with dispersed urban expansion causing inherent land-use conflicts. Interpreting latent socioeconomic processes at the base of peri-urban agriculture in southern Europe may benefit from a thorough analysis of metropolitan dynamics of growth and change, considering together morphological and functional issues. The approach proposed in this study is intended to provide an overview of new strategies for food production in highly fragmented landscapes, investigating the point of view of local actors operating in the primary sector. A preliminary survey carried out in the Athens' metropolitan region, Greece, provides a knowledge base to identify apparent and latent trends in peri-urban farming and the mutual implications for farmers and citizens.

Ecological change points: The strength of density dependence and the loss of history

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
José M. Ponciano ◽  
Mark L. Taper ◽  
Brian Dennis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Density Dependence ◽  
Change Point ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Ecological Change ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Change Point Model

AbstractChange points in the dynamics of animal abundances have extensively been recorded in historical time series records. Little attention has been paid to the theoretical dynamic consequences of such change-points. Here we propose a change-point model of stochastic population dynamics. This investigation embodies a shift of attention from the problem of detecting when a change will occur, to another non-trivial puzzle: using ecological theory to understand and predict the post-breakpoint behavior of the population dynamics. The proposed model and the explicit expressions derived here predict and quantify how density dependence modulates the influence of the pre-breakpoint parameters into the post-breakpoint dynamics. Time series transitioning from one stationary distribution to another contain information about where the process was before the change-point, where is it heading and how long it will take to transition, and here this information is explicitly stated. Importantly, our results provide a direct connection of the strength of density dependence with theoretical properties of dynamic systems, such as the concept of resilience. Finally, we illustrate how to harness such information through maximum likelihood estimation for state-space models, and test the model robustness to widely different forms of compensatory dynamics. The model can be used to estimate important quantities in the theory and practice of population recovery.

Measuring Urban Sprawl Patterns in Greater Cairo Metropolitan Region

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Taher Osman ◽  
Takafumi Arima ◽  
Prasanna Divigalpitiya
Keyword(s):  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Greater Cairo

scholarly journals The impacts of urban sprawl on ecological connectivity in the Montreal Metropolitan Region

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 61-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerôme Dupras ◽  
Joan Marull ◽  
Lluís Parcerisas ◽  
Francesc Coll ◽  
Andrew Gonzalez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Ecological Connectivity

Political Regimes and Suburban Growth, 1980–1990

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 113-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
John R. Logan ◽  
Kyle D. Crowder
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Local Development ◽  
Political Regime ◽  
Median Income ◽  
Growth Machine ◽  
Suburban Communities ◽  
Cast Doubt ◽  
Growth Coalitions ◽  
New Evidence

We provide new evidence on two hypotheses associated with the model of the city as a growth machine. The first posits the pervasive influence of pro‐growth coalitions in local governing regimes. The second asserts that growth regimes make a difference to local development. Census data from 1980 and 1990 and data from a survey of community leaders in nearly 300 incorporated suburban communities are used to assess these hypotheses. In support of the first hypothesis, we find that pro‐growth coalitions represent by far the most common type of political regime, but are less likely to dominate the local politics of higher‐status communities. The type of regime prevailing in a suburb has a significant impact on the growth‐related policies adopted by the community. However, there is no evidence that either growth policy or the type of political regime significantly influences changes in population size, racial composition, or median income of these suburbs. These results cast doubt on the assumed efficacy of local growth policies and raise additional questions regarding the impacts of extra‐local factors in the development of suburban municipalities.

scholarly journals Analysis of population dynamics of the regional unit of Chania using remote sensing and census data

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 110-125
Author(s):  
Paschalina PAPANIKOLAOU ◽  
◽  
Terpsichori MITSI ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Location Quotient ◽  
Regional Unit ◽  
Remotely Sensed Image ◽  
Ancient Times ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Do So

Information about the size and the evolution of a place’s population has been sought from ancient times. That kind of information can be secured by periodic census enumerations. The Hellenic Statistical Authority provides data about the population and social conditions, also economical indices for each economic sector and the industrial trade. The study area, the regional unit of Chania, is in the island of Crete and the population resides mostly in the lowlands. In order to study the density, distribution and evolution of the population, many quantitative geographical methods were used, such as the Location Quotient (LQ), the Coefficient of Specialization (CS), the Coefficient of Localization (CL) and the Gini – Hirschman Index. The dataset chosen to execute the models, is derived from the Hellenic Statistical Authority’s website, for the years 2001 and 2011, the most recent census available data and is free of charge. To examine the distribution and the density of the population in accordance with the urban sprawl in the area the results were correlated with remotely sensed image. To do so, the Built – up index was calculated and for each municipality in the county and the mean value was used in a linear regression model with the population. In conclusion, the analysis combines the results of the quantitative methods for the productive sectors, the population density and growth with the urban sprawl, to examine the way the population of the county evolved.

scholarly journals Impact of changes in economic structure on the territorial and demographic growth of settlements in the post-socialist period, the example of Nisavski Administrative District

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 371-385
Author(s):  
Aleksandar Ristic ◽  
Petar Mitkovic
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Urban Sprawl ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Administrative District ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Functional Transformation ◽  
International Conventions ◽  
Demographic Growth

This paper analyzes impact of the changed socio-political and economical conditions in post-socialist period, to spatial, demographic and functional transformation of settlements in the case of Nisavski Administrative District. Based on census data and data from the current planning documents, a comparative analysis of interdependence between land use and demographic trends by the type of settlements is conducted in order to examine the extent to which modern principles of sustainability and urban sprawl control had been implemented. Considering that development takes place under the influence of multitude of factors changes in the economic structure were also analyzed. In the theoretical part of paper, the origin and development of the idea for restriction of urban sprawl was presented, along with an overview of the most important provisions of international conventions.

scholarly journals TRANSFORMAÇÕES, PERMANÊNCIAS E DESAFIOS NA MOBILIDADE ESPACIAL METROPOLITANA: MOVIMENTOS PENDULARES NA REGIÃO METROPOLITANA DA GRANDE VITÓRIA (RMGV)/Transformations, permanences and challenges in spatial mobility of a Metropolitan area: commutings in the Metropolitan Region of Grande Vitoria (RMGV)

2017 ◽  
pp. 58-80
Author(s):  
Pablo Lira ◽  
Aurélia H. Castiglioni ◽  
Pablo Jabor ◽  
Fábio Colatto
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Geographic Information System ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Metropolitan Region ◽  
Socioeconomic Differences ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Spatial Mobility ◽  
Spatial Inequalities ◽  
Current Scenario ◽  
High Level

No cenário atual de expansão, interação e complementaridade das unidades que formam as aglomerações urbanas, intensificam-se as formas de mobilidade interurbana que não implicam em mudança de residência e que se caracterizam por sua regularidade. Este estudo analisa os movimentos pendulares para estudo e trabalho na RMGV, buscando investigar transformações, permanências e desafios da mobilidade espacial na região nas últimas décadas. São utilizadas várias fontes de dados e informações, em especial os dados censitários produzidos pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), tratados por métodos estatísticos para a construção de indicadores e pela aplicação do Sistema de Informação Geográfica para a representação cartográfica. A RMGV, que concentra população e infraestruturas sociais e produtivas, se destaca pelo dinamismo dos movimentos pendulares. A reprodução interna das diferenças socioeconômicas resulta em fluxos fortemente direcionados para o Polo Vitória, seguido por Vila Velha, Serra e Cariacica, que apresentam elevado nível de integração na dinâmica metropolitana. ABSTRACT In the current scenario of expansion, interaction and complementarity of the units that form urban agglomerations, interurban mobility patterns that do not imply change of residence and which are characterized by their regularity are intensified. This paper analyzes commuting for study and work in the RMGV, seeking to investigate transformations, permanences and challenges of spatial mobility in the region throughout the last decades. Several sources of data and information are used, specially census data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), treated by statistical methods in order to construct indicators and by the application of the Geographic Information System (GIS) for cartographic representation. The RMGV, which concentrates population as well as social and productive infrastructure, stands out by its commuting dynamism. The internal reproduction of socioeconomic differences result in flows strongly directed to Vitoria, followed by Vila Velha, Serra and Cariacica which present a high level of integration in the metropolitan dynamic. Keywords: Commuting, Metropolization Process, Socio-spatial Inequalities.

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