Tool of forecasting the natural and migration movement of the population in the region based on simulation methods

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 155-168
Author(s):  
Marsel M. Nizamutdinov ◽  
Аlsu R. Atnabaeva
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
State Diagram ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Connection Management ◽  
The Republic ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
And Migration

The demographic policy of the Russian Federation is aimed at increasing the population in the country. In this connection, management decisions made at the regional level focus at attracting skilled migrants, increasing the birth rate, and reducing mortality. On the one hand, such politics affects the size of the population; on the other hand, the reaction of the population can adjust the policy. In turn, state programs are intended for a long period of time, thus, there is a need to assess the effectiveness of the taken decisions. Therefore, the authors have proposed a concept of an agent-based model of demographic processes at the regional level. In addition, they have developed the model itself, which aims to increase the accuracy of forecasting the population in the face of changing socio-economic indicators. Each of the agents (represented by “Person” and “Region”) have their own set of characteristics. To describe the logic of the agent behavior, the authors have used statistical (regression and cluster analysis) and probability (Bernoulli, Gamma, Betta, exponential distribution) methods. The life cycle of the agent “Person” is presented in the developed state diagram. The testing of the agent-based model was performed in solving the problems of forecasting the population in the Republic of Bashkortostan on the basis of the prognosis data from the RF Ministry of Economic Development. The article also presents experimental research on two scenarios of economic development (basic and conservative). An assessment of changes in fertility, mortality, and migration based on the use of cluster and regression analysis is presented.

scholarly journals Isolation, Characterization, and Agent-Based Modeling of Mesenchymal Stem Cells in a Bio-construct for Myocardial Regeneration Scaffold Design

Data ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Victoria Ramírez López ◽  
María Isabel Melo Escobar ◽  
Carlos A. Peña-Reyes ◽  
Álvaro J. Rojas Arciniegas ◽  
Paola Andrea Neuta Arciniegas
Keyword(s):  
Stem Cells ◽  
Mesenchymal Stem Cells ◽  
In Silico ◽  
Cardiac Tissue ◽  
Cellular Level ◽  
Cell Behavior ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
And Migration

Regenerative medicine involves methods to control and modify normal tissue repair processes. Polymer and cell constructs are under research to create tissue that replaces the affected area in cardiac tissue after myocardial infarction (MI). The aim of the present study is to evaluate the behavior of differentiated and undifferentiated mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) in vitro and in silico and to compare the results that both offer when it comes to the design process of biodevices for the treatment of infarcted myocardium in biomodels. To assess in vitro behavior, MSCs are isolated from rat bone marrow and seeded undifferentiated and differentiated in multiple scaffolds of a gelled biomaterial. Subsequently, cell behavior is evaluated by trypan blue and fluorescence microscopy, which showed that the cells presented high viability and low cell migration in the biomaterial. An agent-based model intended to reproduce as closely as possible the behavior of individual MSCs by simulating cellular-level processes was developed, where the in vitro results are used to identify parameters in the agent-based model that is developed, and which simulates cellular-level processes: Apoptosis, differentiation, proliferation, and migration. Thanks to the results obtained, suggestions for good results in the design and fabrication of the proposed scaffolds and how an agent-based model can be helpful for testing hypothesis are presented in the discussion. It is concluded that assessment of cell behavior through the observation of viability, proliferation, migration, inflammation reduction, and spatial composition in vitro and in silico, represents an appropriate strategy for scaffold engineering.

scholarly journals ya||a: GPU-powered Spheroid Models for Mesenchyme and Epithelium

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Germann ◽  
Miquel Marin-Riera ◽  
James Sharpe
Keyword(s):  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Tissue Polarity ◽  
Link Type ◽  
Computationally Expensive ◽  
Epithelial Sheets ◽  
And Migration

ya||a is yet another parallel agent-based model for morphogenesis. It is several orders of magnitude faster than onventional models, because it runs on GPUs and because it has been designed for performance: Previously only complex and therefore computationally expensive models could simulate both mesenchyme and epithelium. We chose o extend the simple spheroid model by the addition of spin-like polarities to simulate epithelial sheets and tissue polarity. We also incorporate recently developed models for protrusions and migration. ya||a is written in concise, plain UDA/C++ and available at github.com/germannp/yalla under the MIT license.

scholarly journals Research of migration behavior of the population and assessment of the level of attractiveness of territories based on the methods of agent-based modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marsel Nizamutdinov ◽  
Alsu Atnabaeva ◽  
Miliausha Akhmetzianova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Demographic Model ◽  
Migration Behavior ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic

Migration processes play a significant role in the socio-economic and demographic development of the Russian Federation. According to Rosstat, in more than 50 % of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2019, there is a migration decline in the population. It can also be noted that the most attractive for the population are large cities with a high level of socio-economic development. In this regard, the aim of the study is to assess the factors of mutual influence of the migration behavior of the population and the socio-economic development of the territory on the basis of agent-based modeling methods. The Republic of Bashkortostan was chosen as the object of the study, as the region with the highest level of migration loss in the Volga Federal District. According to the strategy of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the period up to 2030, the Government of the Republic of Belarus faces the difficult task of making effective management decisions that will lead to an increase in the socio-economic development of the territories and, consequently, to an increase in the level of migration growth. A distinctive feature of this study is the use of agent-based modeling (to take into account the individual characteristics of agents), fuzzy logic (to form the rules of behavior for agents) and GIS maps (to take into account the geographic location). A modular scheme for the functioning of the economic-demographic model has been developed, which describes the events, the agents that participate in them, and the methods by which they were implemented. An algorithm for the implementation of the "Migration" block has been developed, which describes the logic of the migration behavior of the "Man" agent and his reaction to changes in socio-economic indicators taken into account within the framework of the "Municipality" agent. According to the results of the study, scenarios for the development of municipal districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan were substantiated on the basis of data from the Ministry of Economic Development and Investment Policy of the Republic of Bashkortostan, as well as the program "Comprehensive development of single-industry towns in the Republic of Bashkortostan".

scholarly journals Federal Analysis of Economic Development of the Regions of Modern Russia

Vestnik NSUEM ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 227-243
Author(s):  
V. V. Smirnov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Russian Regions ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Republic ◽  
And Cluster Analysis ◽  
The Moment ◽  
Economic Formation

The purpose of the paper is studying the possibility of economic development of Russian regions in modern federal state. The research is based on a system approach using the methods of descriptive statistics and cluster analysis. The article revealed the incomprehension of federalism as a system tool of development of economy of Russian regions. The federation is related to a political keynote – the moment of power. At that, the priority of merism principles in structure of a state is emphasized, with simplification of national economy and strengthening the role of central authority and dependence of Russia on the technologies of economy capitalization, in favor of budget centralization. The paper shows the place of Russian economy in the world economy in the conditions of acceptance of capitalism as the basis of economic formation of society. Following the results of the federative analysis of economic development of Russian regions the attractor of federative framework – the Republic of Crimea and anti-attractor – the Republic of Dagestan were revealed. The Kaluga Region and Tambov Region were defined as the linking entities of the Federation, while the Nenets Autonomous District and Khanty-Mansy Autonomous Region – Yugra were defined as the separating ones. The results of the research expand the field of knowledge regarding federative framework of the state and point at the possibilities of its integrity maintenance in the course of dynamic economic development of the entities, by forming new competencies for managerial decision making regarding maintenance of stability of the balance of regional interests in internal and foreign policy.

scholarly journals An agent based model of Creative Social Entrepreneurship Behaviour in the context of creative economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 7
Author(s):  
Anggraeni Permatasari ◽  
Wawan Dhewanto ◽  
Dina Dellyana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Social Entrepreneurship ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Social Entrepreneur ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Entrepreneurial Behaviour ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents an agent-based model that illustrates creative-social entrepreneurial behaviour and its impact on socio-economic development and local resources sustainability. This study conducted an agent-based model simulation test to demonstrate the potential of the model developed through a literature review. The model approach assumes the interactions between agents are influenced by three purposes, which are profit entrepreneur, social entrepreneur and hybrid entrepreneur. The process is captured from the ability of entrepreneurial creativity in exploiting and conserving local resources. The results show the success of a dynamic model in integrating characteristics and creative-social entrepreneurial behaviour. The final model used as a reference to validate the impact and the relationship of creative-social entrepreneurial action on the socio-economic development and sustainability of a region's local resources. Keywords—Creative-social Entrepreneurship, Agent Based Model, Hybrid Entrepreneurs, Socio-Economic Development Local Resources Sustainability

Tandem Economic Development Of Two Regions Or Countries

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 577-580
Author(s):  
Ileana Ciutacu ◽  
Iulian Săvulescu ◽  
Luminiţa Mihaela Dumitraşcu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
Development Paths ◽  
Union Territory ◽  
Over Time

AbstractIn today's economy, one speaks mostly of regions than of countries, at least on European Union territory. So even if the territorial point of view is changing, the economic expectations remain unchanged: how much will that country/region grow and develop over time. The objective of this research is to see the way in which the economies of two regions develop in tandem over time and why. We plan to do this by designing and constructing an agent-based model that simulates a dummy world economy composed of two regions. Each region that can also be seen as a country has its own firms that produce goods and its own inhabitants who work for the firms and consume their goods. The two regions have their own currency, but ‘do commerce’ mainly through the movement of their inhabitants between them. In this research we chose to construct an agent-based model that simulates economic development and uses NetLogo programming language and interfaces, because of the advantages of this particular approach. Thus, after building the initial Netlogo model and simulating with it certain scenarios and examples of regional economies, by simply changing some variables any user can easily adapt it to other examples, real or not; do the simulations and obtain the desired number of development paths for his or her example. Thus, the result that we expect to obtain is creating agent-based model that can be used as a tool by policy-makers for seeing how different policies can affect or stimulate regional economic development.

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