Conceptual and methodological aspects of developing an agent-based model of demographic processes at the regional level (on example of the Republic of Bashkortostan)

The demographic policy of the Russian Federation is aimed at increasing the population in the country. In this connection, management decisions made at the regional level focus at attracting skilled migrants, increasing the birth rate, and reducing mortality. On the one hand, such politics affects the size of the population; on the other hand, the reaction of the population can adjust the policy. In turn, state programs are intended for a long period of time, thus, there is a need to assess the effectiveness of the taken decisions. Therefore, the authors have proposed a concept of an agent-based model of demographic processes at the regional level. In addition, they have developed the model itself, which aims to increase the accuracy of forecasting the population in the face of changing socio-economic indicators. Each of the agents (represented by “Person” and “Region”) have their own set of characteristics. To describe the logic of the agent behavior, the authors have used statistical (regression and cluster analysis) and probability (Bernoulli, Gamma, Betta, exponential distribution) methods. The life cycle of the agent “Person” is presented in the developed state diagram. The testing of the agent-based model was performed in solving the problems of forecasting the population in the Republic of Bashkortostan on the basis of the prognosis data from the RF Ministry of Economic Development. The article also presents experimental research on two scenarios of economic development (basic and conservative). An assessment of changes in fertility, mortality, and migration based on the use of cluster and regression analysis is presented.

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Estimates on poverty in Russia and the additional measures to reduce it at the regional level

Regional Economics Theory and Practice ◽

10.24891/re.18.4.739 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 (4) ◽

pp. 739-752 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

R.M. Sadykov

Keyword(s):

Poverty Rate ◽

Regional Level ◽

Living Standards ◽

Standard Of Living ◽

High Quality ◽

Social Standard ◽

Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽

The Republic ◽

Sociological Studies

Subject. This article deals with the issues of social justice and a high quality of life, creating favorable economic and social conditions. Objectives. The article aims to assess the rate and changes in poverty in Russia and the Republic of Bashkortostan and develop complementary measures to reduce it. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of logical, comparative, economic and statistical analyses, the results of sociological studies, and official statistics. Results. The article highlights additional measures to reduce poverty in the region, including the establishment of a minimum social standard of living in each particular region that determines the poverty rate. Conclusions. Various factors, such as economic sanctions, economic slowdowns, territorial and regional imbalances, lead to living standards decline and poverty rise.

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Ethnodemography of Bashkirs in Regions of Russia (1970—2010)

Nauchnyy dialog ◽

10.24224/2227-1295-2021-3-397-415 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 397-415

Author(s):

F. G. Safin ◽

S. R. Abramova ◽

M. N. Ishemgulov

Keyword(s):

Russian Federation ◽

Present Stage ◽

Linguistic Identity ◽

Demographic Development ◽

Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽

Comparative Aspect ◽

Demographic Processes ◽

The Russian Federation ◽

The Republic ◽

Regions Of Russia

The issues of ethno-demographic and ethno-linguistic development of the Bashkir population in the regions of the Russian Federation are considered. It is noted that the tendencies of demographic processes among the Bashkirs in the regions and in the republic of the same name are very different. The features of the ethnodemographic development of the Bashkirs in the regions of their historical settlement are shown, in which general trends coincide with the demographic processes in the country as a whole. It cannot be said about the Republic of Bashkortostan, which is characterized by sharp fluctuations in the size of the titular ethnic group. The dynamics of the ethnic and linguistic identity of the Bashkir population in the regions of historical settlement is revealed in a comparative aspect with the subjects to which the Bashkirs moved at a later time and in which their number is a small proportion. The novelty of the study lies in the fact that it was the first to analyze the ethno-demographic and ethno-linguistic aspects of the development of the Bashkirs in the Russian Federation, including in the regions of their historical settlement. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the issue of the demographic development of the Bashkir population at the present stage, especially in the republic of the same name, has acquired an ethnopolitical discourse. It has been proven that, despite the policy of reviving ethnicity and the native language, the Bashkirs, like other peoples, are gradually losing it in favor of being recognized as a native Russian.

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The influence of criminal deviation on the demographic processes in the Republic of Bashkortostan

RUDN Journal of Sociology ◽

10.22363/2313-2272-2020-20-1-89-101 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (1) ◽

pp. 89-101

Author(s):

S. V. Egoryshev

Keyword(s):

Social Economic ◽

Population Decline ◽

Economic Policies ◽

Negative Consequences ◽

Demographic Situation ◽

Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽

Working Age ◽

Demographic Processes ◽

The Republic ◽

Social Economic Development

The current demographic situation in most regions of Russia is characterized by a number of negative trends associated with population decline, aging, low birth rate, high mortality, redistribution of migration flows and outflow of population, mainly of its young and working-age part, to the most economically developed regions, cities and abroad. Numerous factors influence the state and trends of demographic processes; this influence is studied and taken into account when the strategies of the demographic and social-economic policies of the country as a whole and its regions are considered. The social-economic development and its specific components including demographic processes are also determined by social deviations of a delinquent and criminal nature. The destructive consequences of criminal deviation for demographic processes are not obvious or critical, but they are manifested both directly (human losses) and indirectly (material and financial costs, increased mortality from alcohol, drugs, suicides, social exclusion of people who are sick or isolated due to deviations). Criminal deviation as a type of destructive social deviations is manifested mainly in crime and in those deviations that are its cause and corpus delicti. Based on the analysis of statistical and sociological data on the Republic of Bashkortostan, the author considers negative consequences of criminal deviation for the demographic situation and insists on the need to find effective measures to reduce them to a socially acceptable level (a criterion of such measures effectiveness).

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DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE REPUBLIC OF BASHKORTOSTAN

RUSSIAN ELECTRONIC SCIENTIFIC JOURNAL ◽

10.31563/2308-9644-2018-30-4-168-185 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 168-185

Author(s):

R.Z. Saitova ◽

◽

N.A. Kostenko ◽

L.Yu. Melnik ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽

Demographic Processes ◽

The Republic

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WAYS TO IMPROVE THE INSTRUMENTATION FOR STATE REGULATION OF THE HEALTHCARE SPHERE OF THE REPUBLIC OF BASHKORTOSTAN

Вестник ГГНТУ. Гуманитарные и социально-экономические науки ◽

10.34708/gstou.2021.55.79.004 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 31-39

Author(s):

З. Г. Зайнашева ◽

З. Э. Сабирова

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Health Care System ◽

State Regulation ◽

The State ◽

Regional Level ◽

Healthcare Sector ◽

State Program ◽

Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽

The Republic ◽

Care System

В статье рассмотрены инструменты государственного регулирования сферы здравоохранения на уровне региона, а также направления его совершенствования, что является в настоящее время весьма актуальным. Авторы, раскрывая важное значение программирования и проектирования государственного регулирования системы здравоохранения, отметили отличия и преимущества проекта перед государственной программой, что объясняет активное использование проектного метода на всех уровнях управления. Среди направлений совершенствования инструментов государственного регулирования сферы здравоохранения в республике предложены такие направления, как активное использование инструментов государственно-частного партнерства, широкая информатизация и цифровизация системы здравоохранения и др. На основе анализа развития системы здравоохранения Республики Башкортостан, показателей обеспеченности населения муниципальных районов и городских округов врачами и средним медицинским персоналом сделаны выводы о дефиците медицинских кадров в регионе и разработаны соответствующие мероприятия. В статье говорится о ключевой проблеме в целом по России, а также в республике, - о неблагополучной демографической ситуации. Представлен анализ демографических показателей за последние годы и предложены эффективные инструменты решения данных проблем.По результатам проведенного исследования авторами определены наиболее эффективные и значимые на региональном уровне мероприятия, позволяющие достичь целей национального проекта «Здравоохранение» и государственной программы «Развитие здравоохранения Республики Башкортостан». The article discusses the instruments of state regulation of the healthcare sector at the regional level, as well as the directions of its improvement, which is currently very relevant.The authors, revealing the importance of programming and designing state regulation of the health care system, noted the differences and advantages of the project over the state program, which explains the active use of the project method at all levels of management.Among the directions for improving the instruments of state regulation of the healthcare sector in the republic, such directions as the active use of public-private partnership instruments, widespread informatization and digitalization of the healthcare system, etc. are proposed.Based on the analysis of the development of the health care system of the Republic of Bashkortostan, indicators of the provision of the population of municipal districts and urban districts with doctors and nurses, conclusions were drawn about the shortage of medical personnel in the region and appropriate measures were developed.The article speaks about the key problem in Russia as a whole, as well as in the republic - the unfavorable demographic situation. The analysis of demographic indicators in recent years is presented and effective tools for solving these problems are proposed.Based on the results of the study, the authors have identified the most effective and significant measures at the regional level, allowing to achieve the goals of the national project “Health” and the state program “Development of health care in the Republic of Bashkortostan.”

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Demographic Agent-based model of Russia and Assessment of its Applicability for Solving Practical Management Problems

Artificial Societies ◽

10.18254/s207751800015357-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. 0

Author(s):

Albert Bakhtizin

Keyword(s):

Statistical Data ◽

Computer Experiments ◽

Demographic Model ◽

Agent Based Model ◽

Agent Based ◽

Demographic Indicators ◽

Practical Management ◽

Demographic Processes ◽

Simulation Results ◽

Families With Children

The article presents the developed agent-based model of Russia, designed to simulate the processes of population reproduction and the influence of measures to support families with children on these processes. The results of testing this demographic model in the course of computer experiments to predict the main demographic indicators for Russia as a whole and in the context of regions are shown. The properties of the model itself, as well as the plausibility of imitating the main demographic processes in it by comparing the simulation results with real statistical data over a long retrospective period, have been investigated. Prognosis of demographic indicators up to 2030 have been received. The advantages of the agent-based approach to modeling demographic processes are formulated. The promising directions of development of the presented model are indicated.

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Research of migration behavior of the population and assessment of the level of attractiveness of territories based on the methods of agent-based modeling

The Eurasian Scientific Journal ◽

10.15862/29ecvn620 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

Author(s):

Marsel Nizamutdinov ◽

Alsu Atnabaeva ◽

Miliausha Akhmetzianova

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Russian Federation ◽

Agent Based Modeling ◽

Demographic Model ◽

Migration Behavior ◽

Agent Based ◽

Republic Of Bashkortostan ◽

Socio Economic Development ◽

The Russian Federation ◽

The Republic

Migration processes play a significant role in the socio-economic and demographic development of the Russian Federation. According to Rosstat, in more than 50 % of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2019, there is a migration decline in the population. It can also be noted that the most attractive for the population are large cities with a high level of socio-economic development. In this regard, the aim of the study is to assess the factors of mutual influence of the migration behavior of the population and the socio-economic development of the territory on the basis of agent-based modeling methods. The Republic of Bashkortostan was chosen as the object of the study, as the region with the highest level of migration loss in the Volga Federal District. According to the strategy of the Republic of Bashkortostan for the period up to 2030, the Government of the Republic of Belarus faces the difficult task of making effective management decisions that will lead to an increase in the socio-economic development of the territories and, consequently, to an increase in the level of migration growth. A distinctive feature of this study is the use of agent-based modeling (to take into account the individual characteristics of agents), fuzzy logic (to form the rules of behavior for agents) and GIS maps (to take into account the geographic location). A modular scheme for the functioning of the economic-demographic model has been developed, which describes the events, the agents that participate in them, and the methods by which they were implemented. An algorithm for the implementation of the "Migration" block has been developed, which describes the logic of the migration behavior of the "Man" agent and his reaction to changes in socio-economic indicators taken into account within the framework of the "Municipality" agent. According to the results of the study, scenarios for the development of municipal districts of the Republic of Bashkortostan were substantiated on the basis of data from the Ministry of Economic Development and Investment Policy of the Republic of Bashkortostan, as well as the program "Comprehensive development of single-industry towns in the Republic of Bashkortostan".

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