scholarly journals A 424-year tree-ring-based Palmer Drought Severity Index reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from the Hindu Kush range of Pakistan: linkages to ocean oscillations

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 783-798
Author(s):  
Sarir Ahmad ◽  
Liangjun Zhu ◽  
Sumaira Yasmeen ◽  
Yuandong Zhang ◽  
Zongshan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
Cedrus Deodara ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract. The rate of global warming has led to persistent drought. It is considered to be the preliminary factor affecting socioeconomic development under the background of the dynamic forecasting of the water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semiarid Hindu Kush range are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March–August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years, going back to 1593 CE. Our reconstruction featured nine dry periods (1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, and 1981–1995) and eight wet periods (1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969, and 1990–1999). This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in West Asia, thereby confirming its reliability. The multi-taper method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6.0, 16.8, and 34.0–38.0 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the large-scale atmospheric–oceanic variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of the Hindu Kush mountain range in northern Pakistan.

The dendroecology and climatic impacts for old-growth white pine and hemlock on the extreme slopes of the Berkshire Hills, Massachusetts, U.S.A.

2000 ◽  
Vol 78 (7) ◽  
pp. 851-861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc D Abrams ◽  
Saskia van de Gevel ◽  
Ryan C Dodson ◽  
Carolyn A Copenheaver
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
White Pine ◽  
Old Growth ◽  
Hardwood Species ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Dendrochronological techniques were used to investigate the dynamics of an old-growth forest on the extreme slope (65%) at Ice Glen Natural Area in southwestern Massachusetts. The site represented a rare opportunity to study the disturbance history, successional development, and responses to climatic variation of an old-growth hemlock (Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr) - white pine (Pinus strobus L.) - northern hardwood forest in the northeastern United States. Hemlock is the oldest species in the forest, with maximum tree ages of 305-321 years. The maximum ages for white pine and several hardwood species are 170-200 years. There was continuous recruitment of hemlock trees from 1677 to 1948. All of the existing white pine was recruited in the period between 1800 and 1880, forming an unevenly aged population within an unevenly aged, old-growth hemlock canopy. This was associated with large increases in the Master tree-ring chronologies, indicative of major stand-wide disturbances, for both hemlock and white pine. Nearly all of the hardwood species were also recruited between 1800 and 1880. After 1900, there was a dramatic decline in recruitment for all species, including hemlock, probably as a result of intensive deer browsing. White pine and hemlock tree-ring growth during the 20th century was positively correlated with the annual Palmer drought severity index (r = 0.61 and 0.39, respectively). This included reduced growth during periods of low Palmer drought severity index values, the drought years of 1895-1922, and dramatic increases during periods of high Palmer drought severity index values in the 1970s and 1990s. Significant positive and negative correlations of certain monthly Palmer drought severity index values with 20th century tree-ring chronologies also exist for white pine and hemlock using response function analysis. The results of this study suggest that old-growth forests on extreme sites in the eastern United States may be particularly sensitive to direct and indirect allogenic factors and climatic variations and represent an important resource for studying long-term ecological and climatic history.Key words: age structure, radial growth analysis, disturbance, climate, fire, tree rings.

scholarly journals Last 1100 yr of precipitation variability in western central Asia as revealed by tree-ring data from the Pamir-Alay

2018 ◽  
Vol 91 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Opała-Owczarek ◽  
Tadeusz Niedźwiedź
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Transfer Function Method ◽  
Tree Ring Data

AbstractWe developed a 1108 yr chronology of tree-ring widths, based on 64 Himalayan pencil juniper (Juniperus semiglobosa Regel) trees, for the Pamir-Alay Mountains, central Asia. Dendroclimatological analysis demonstrates that precipitation has significant effects on tree growth in the semiarid mountainous area of northwestern Tajikistan located on the edge of the great midlatitude Karakum and Kyzylkum deserts. The highest level of linear correlation (r=0.67) is observed between tree growth and seasonalised winter (previous December–February) precipitation. Our studies also show that moisture (precipitation/Palmer Drought Severity Index) from the previous June to the current September was the dominant climatic factor accounting for interannual variations in tree-ring width, suggesting that this should be considered in climate reconstruction. Using the transfer function method, we reconstructed the region’s drought history over the period AD 908–2015. The results of this moisture reconstruction showed that the most recent millennium was characterised by series of dry and wet stages. The driest periods occurred before 1000, 1200–1250, and at the end of the eighteenth century and beginning of the nineteenth century. The wettest conditions existed in 1650–1700 and after 1990.

Growth-climate relationship of Pinus wallichiana in three different parts of the Himalayas

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-20
Author(s):  
S. Bhandari ◽  
J. H. Speer
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Positive Response ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Western Himalayas ◽  
Eastern Himalayas ◽  
Pinus Wallichiana ◽  
Drought Severity Index

 We have used six tree-ring width chronologies of Pinus wallichiana from the Himalayan region, which are available in the International Tree-Ring Data Bank (ITRDB), to determine their growth trends through time and the growth-climate relationship. Each of the chronologies downloaded from the ITRDB was detrended using an Age-dependent Cubic Smoothing Spline with a 20-year starting spline stiffness in the RCSigfree Software Program. We broke the six chronologies into three regions based on natural breaks between the sample sites. Altogether, three composite chronologies were made, one each from Bhutan, Nepal, and Pakistan. The average value for common periods was taken from each of those two chronologies to make a composite chronology. Across the three regions, the growth was lowest in the 1810s and has increased since 1980s. The growth showed a significant positive response to the winter temperature (November-February) in the eastern Himalayas in Bhutan. The chronology from Nepal showed that the growth of this species had a significant positive response to the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index of the previous year’s December and the current year’s January and March. In the western Himalayas of Pakistan, the growth of the same species is positively correlated to the annual self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index. Winter temperature limits the growth of this species in the eastern Himalayas where there is enough moisture whereas the growth of this species is primarily limited by moisture in the western Himalayas

scholarly journals Decadal Oscillation in the Predictability of Palmer Drought Severity Index in California

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazzareno Diodato ◽  
Lelys Bravo De Guenni ◽  
Mariangel Garcia ◽  
Gianni Bellocchi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
Resources Planning ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Severity of drought in California (U.S.) varies from year-to-year and is highly influenced by precipitation in winter months, causing billion-dollar events in single drought years. Improved understanding of the variability of drought on decadal and longer timescales is essential to support regional water resources planning and management. This paper presents a soft-computing approach to forecast the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in California. A time-series of yearly data covering more than two centuries (1801–2014) was used for the design of ensemble projections to understand and quantify the uncertainty associated with interannual-to-interdecadal predictability. With a predictable structure elaborated by exponential smoothing, the projections indicate for the horizon 2015–2054 a weak increase of drought, followed by almost the same pace as in previous decades, presenting remarkable wavelike variations with durations of more than one year. Results were compared with a linear transfer function model approach where Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation indices were both used as input time series. The forecasted pattern shows that variations attributed to such internal climate modes may not provide more reliable predictions than the one provided by purely internal variability of drought persistence cycles, as present in the PDSI time series.

scholarly journals Tropical Pacific Forcing of North American Medieval Megadroughts: Testing the Concept with an Atmosphere Model Forced by Coral-Reconstructed SSTs*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (23) ◽  
pp. 6175-6190 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Seager ◽  
Robert Burgman ◽  
Yochanan Kushnir ◽  
Amy Clement ◽  
Ed Cook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
North American ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Medieval Period ◽  
Sst Anomalies ◽  
Drought Severity Index ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The possible role that tropical Pacific SSTs played in driving the megadroughts over North America during the medieval period is addressed. Fossil coral records from the Palmyra Atoll are used to derive tropical Pacific SSTs for the period from a.d. 1320 to a.d. 1462 and show overall colder conditions as well as extended multidecadal La Niña–like states. The reconstructed SSTs are used to force a 16-member ensemble of atmosphere GCM simulations, each with different initial conditions, with the atmosphere coupled to a mixed layer ocean outside of the tropical Pacific. Model results are verified against North American tree ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index. A singular value decomposition analysis is performed using the soil moisture anomaly simulated by another 16-member ensemble of simulations forced by global observed SSTs for 1856–2004 and tree ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index for the same period. This relationship is used to transfer the modeled medieval soil moisture anomaly (relative to the modern simulation) into a model-estimated Palmer Drought Severity Index. The model-estimated Palmer Drought Severity Index reproduces many aspects of both the interannual and decadal variations of the tree ring reconstructions, in addition to an overall drier climate that is drier than the tree ring records suggest. The model-estimated Palmer Drought Severity Index simulates two previously identified “megadroughts,” a.d. 1360–1400 and a.d. 1430–60, with a realistic spatial pattern and amplitude. In contrast, the model fails to produce a period of more normal conditions in the early fifteenth century that separated these two megadroughts. The dynamical link between tropical SSTs and the North American megadroughts is akin to that operating in modern droughts. The model results are used to argue that the tropical Pacific played an active role in driving the megadroughts. However, the match between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate is such that it is likely that both the coral-reconstructed SST anomalies contain significant errors and that SST anomalies in other basins also played a role in driving hydroclimate variations over North America during the late medieval period.

scholarly journals A 424-year tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction of <i>Cedrus deodara</i> D. Don from Chitral HinduKush Range of Pakistan: linkages to the ocean oscillations

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarir Ahmad ◽  
Liangjun Zhu ◽  
Sumaira Yasmeen ◽  
Yuandong Zhang ◽  
Zongshan Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Northern Pakistan ◽  
Cedrus Deodara ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Mountain Ranges ◽  
Hindu Kush

Abstract. Currently, the rate of global warming has led to persistent drought patterns. It is considered to be the preliminary reason affecting socio-economic development under the background of dynamic forecasting of water supply and forest ecosystems in West Asia. However, long-term climate records in the semi-arid Chitral mountains of northern Pakistan are seriously lacking. Therefore, we developed a new tree-ring width chronology of Cedrus deodara spanning the period of 1537–2017. We reconstructed the March-August Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index (PDSI) for the past 424 years back to A.D. 1593. Our reconstruction was featured with nine dry and eight wet periods 1593–1598, 1602–1608, 1631–1645, 1647–1660, 1756–1765, 1785–1800, 1870–1878, 1917–1923, 1981–1995, and 1663–1675, 1687–1708, 1771–1773, 1806–1814, 1844–1852, 1932–1935, 1965–1969 and 1996–2003, respectively. This reconstruction is consistent with other dendroclimatic reconstructions in west Asia, confirming its reliability. The analysis of the Multi-Taper Method and wavelet analysis revealed drought variability at periodicities of 2.1–2.4, 3.3, 6, 16.8, and 34–38 years. The drought patterns could be linked to the broad-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and solar activity. In terms of current climate conditions, our findings have important implications for developing drought-resistant policies in communities on the fringes of Hindu Kush mountain Ranges in northern Pakistan.

scholarly journals Studi Analisa Kekeringan Metode Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dan Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) di DAS Kemuning Kabupaten Sampang

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 535-548
Author(s):  
Alfian Firdaus ◽  
◽  
Donny Harisuseno ◽  
Ery Suhartanto ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation Index ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Distance Weighting ◽  
Inverse Distance ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Kekeringan ialah bencana alam yang terjadi secara perlahan dan berdampak buruk untuk kelangsungan hidup penduduk Kabupaten Sampang. Mengingat hal tersebut, perlu dilakukan analisa indeks kekeringan serta pemetaan sebarannya sebagai upaya mitigasi bencana kekeringan. Studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat keparahan kekeringan dengan metode Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) dan Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), serta kesesuaiannya dengan data Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) yang mampu mempresentasikan kejadian El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Setelah itu, Indeks kekeringan yang lebih sesuai dengan pola SOI dipetakan dengan metode Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) untuk mengetahui sebaran kekeringan. Metode SPI menghasilkan indeks kekeringan terparah di bulan April 2004 sebesar -3,651 pada periode defisit 1 bulanan. Metode PDSI menghasilkan indeks kekeringan terparah di bulan September 2001 sebesar - 20,628. Berdasarkan hasil analisa rerata PDSI periode 1998-2017, diketahui bahwa bencana kekeringan umumnya bermula sejak bulan Juli dan berakhir di bulan Oktober, sedangkan puncak kekeringan terjadi pada bulan September. Metode PDSI juga memiliki kesesuaian sebesar 60% terhadap nilai SOI berdasarkan penggambaran grafik surplus dan defisit indeks rerata tahunan, lebih baik daripada metode SPI yang hanya bernilai 53%. Penggambaran peta sebaran kekeringan berdasarkan indeks kekeringan PDSI menunjukkan bahwa Kecamatan Sampang, Torjun, dan Camplong perlu diprioritaskan dalam upaya mitigasi bencana kekeringan di masa mendatang karena memiliki potensi bencana kekeringan lebih besar jika dibandingan kecamatan lainnya.

scholarly journals Tree-Ring-Recorded Drought Variability in the Northern Daxing’anling Mountains of Northeastern China

Forests ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Yu ◽  
Sher Shah ◽  
Guang Zhou ◽  
Zhenzhao Xu ◽  
Qijing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
The North

We developed two tree-ring width chronologies of Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) from the low elevation forest of the northern Daxing’anling Mountains of Inner Mongolia. Although the two chronologies come from different sampling sites, significant correlations existed among the chronologies (r = 0.318), and the first principal component (PC1) accounted for 65.9% of total variance over their common period 1792–2016. Climate-growth correlation analysis revealed that the previous June and July Palmer drought severity index (PDSIp6-7) was the main climatic factor controlling tree-ring growth. Using a linear regression model, we reconstructed the PDSIp6-7 for the past 225 years (1792–2016). The reconstruction satisfied required statistical calibration and validation tests, and represented 38.6% of the PDSI variance recorded by instruments over the period 1955–2016. Six wet and five dry periods were revealed during these 225 years. The drought of 1903–1927 was the most severe drought in the study area in the last 225 years. Comparison with other tree-ring-based moisture-sensitive sequences from nearby regions confirmed a high degree of confidence in our reconstruction. The results of a spatial climate correlation analysis with a gridded PDSI dataset revealed that our reconstructions contained strong regional drought signals for the southern Stanovoy Range and the northern Daxing’anling Mountains. The power spectrum revealed the existence of significant frequency cycles, which may be linked to large-scale atmospheric-oceanic variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, solar activity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation.

scholarly journals A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming

2004 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 1117-1130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
Taotao Qian
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Palmer Drought Severity Index ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Global Land ◽  
Drought Severity Index

Abstract A monthly dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from 1870 to 2002 is derived using historical precipitation and temperature data for global land areas on a 2.5° grid. Over Illinois, Mongolia, and parts of China and the former Soviet Union, where soil moisture data are available, the PDSI is significantly correlated (r = 0.5 to 0.7) with observed soil moisture content within the top 1-m depth during warm-season months. The strongest correlation is in late summer and autumn, and the weakest correlation is in spring, when snowmelt plays an important role. Basin-averaged annual PDSI covary closely (r = 0.6 to 0.8) with streamflow for seven of world's largest rivers and several smaller rivers examined. The results suggest that the PDSI is a good proxy of both surface moisture conditions and streamflow. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the PDSI reveals a fairly linear trend resulting from trends in precipitation and surface temperature and an El Niño– Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced mode of mostly interannual variations as the two leading patterns. The global very dry areas, defined as PDSI &lt; −3.0, have more than doubled since the 1970s, with a large jump in the early 1980s due to an ENSO-induced precipitation decrease and a subsequent expansion primarily due to surface warming, while global very wet areas (PDSI &gt; +3.0) declined slightly during the 1980s. Together, the global land areas in either very dry or very wet conditions have increased from ∼20% to 38% since 1972, with surface warming as the primary cause after the mid-1980s. These results provide observational evidence for the increasing risk of droughts as anthropogenic global warming progresses and produces both increased temperatures and increased drying.

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