scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Conspiracy Hypotheses and Risk Perception in Italy: Infodemiological Survey Study Using Google Trends

10.2196/29929 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. e29929
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rovetta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
The Impact

Background COVID-19 has caused the worst international crisis since World War II. Italy was one of the countries most affected by both the pandemic and the related infodemic. The success of anti–COVID-19 strategies and future public health policies in Italy cannot separate itself from the containment of fake news and the divulgation of correct information. Objective The aim of this paper was to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on web interest in conspiracy hypotheses and risk perception of Italian web users. Methods Google Trends was used to monitor users’ web interest in specific topics, such as conspiracy hypotheses, vaccine side effects, and pollution and climate change. The keywords adopted to represent these topics were mined from Bufale.net—an Italian website specializing in detecting online hoaxes—and Google Trends suggestions (ie, related topics and related queries). Relative search volumes (RSVs) of the time-lapse periods of 2016-2020 (pre–COVID-19) and 2020-2021 (post–COVID-19) were compared through percentage difference (∆%) and the Welch t test (t). When data series were not stationary, other ad hoc criteria were used. The trend slopes were assessed through Sen slope (SS). The significance thresholds have been indicatively set at P=.05 and t=1.9. Results The COVID-19 pandemic drastically increased Italian netizens’ interest in conspiracies (∆% ∈ [60, 288], t ∈ [6, 12]). Web interest in conspiracy-related queries across Italian regions increased and became more homogeneous compared to the pre–COVID-19 period (average RSV=80±2.8, tmin=1.8, ∆min%=+12.4, min∆SD%=–25.8). In addition, a growing trend in web interest in the infodemic YouTube channel ByoBlu has been highlighted. Web interest in hoaxes has increased more than interest in antihoax services (t1=11.3 vs t2=4.5; Δ1%=+157.6 vs Δ2%=+84.7). Equivalently, web interest in vaccine side effects exceeded interest in pollution and climate change (SSvaccines=0.22, P<.001 vs SSpollution=0.05, P<.001; ∆%=+296.4). To date, a significant amount of fake news related to COVID-19 vaccines, unproven remedies, and origin has continued to circulate. In particular, the creation of SARS-CoV-2 in a Chinese laboratory constituted about 0.04% of the entire web interest in the pandemic. Conclusions COVID-19 has given a significant boost to web interest in conspiracy hypotheses and has made it more uniform across regions in Italy. The pandemic accelerated an already-growing trend in users’ interest toward some fake news sources, including the 500,000-subscriber YouTube channel ByoBlu, which was removed from the platform by YouTube for disinformation in March 2021. The risk perception related to COVID-19 vaccines has been so distorted that vaccine side effect–related queries outweighed those relating to pollution and climate change, which are much more urgent issues. Moreover, a large amount of fake news has circulated about COVID-19 vaccines, remedies, and origin. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Italian authorities implement more effective infoveillance systems, and that communication by the mass media be less sensationalistic and more consistent with the available scientific evidence. In this context, Google Trends can be used to monitor users’ response to specific infodemiological countermeasures. Further research is needed to understand the psychological mechanisms that regulate risk perception.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Conspiracy Attitudes and Risk Perception in Italy: an Infodemiological Survey through Google Trends.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rovetta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Web

Background: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused the worst international crisis since World War II. Italy was one of the countries most affected by both the pandemic and the related infodemic. The success of anti-COVID-19 strategies and future public health policies in Italy cannot prescind from containment of fake news and divulgation of correct information.Objective: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on conspiracy attitudes and risk perception of Italian web users.Methods: Google Trends was used to monitor users' web interest in specific topics, such as conspiracy hypotheses, vaccine side effects, and pollution/climate change. The keywords adopted to represent these topics were mined from Bufale.net – an Italian website specialized in detecting online hoaxes – and Google Trends suggestions (i.e., related topics and related queries). Relative search volumes of the timelapse 2016-2020 (pre-COVID-19) and 2020-2021 (post-COVID-19) were compared through percentage difference (∆_%) and Welch’s t-test (t). When data series were not stationary, other ad-hoc criteria were used. The trend slopes were assessed through Sen's Slope (SS). The significance thresholds have been indicatively set at P=.05 and t=1.9.Results: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically enforced Italian netizens' conspiracy attitudes (Δ_%∈[60,288],t∈[6,12]). The regional web interest towards conspiracy-related queries has increased and become more homogeneous compared to the pre-COVID-19 period ((RSV) ̅=80±2.8,t_min=1.8,Δ_(min%)=+12.4,min ∆_(SD%)=-25.8). Besides, a growing trend in web interest in the infodemic YouTube channel "ByoBlu" has been highlighted. The web interest in fake news has increased more than that in anti-hoax services (t_1=11.3 vs t_2=4.5,Δ_1=+157.6 vs Δ_2=+84.7). Equivalently, the web interest in vaccine side effects exceeded that in pollution/climate change (SS_vac=0.22,P&lt;.001 vs SS_pol=0.05,P&lt;.001,∆_%=+296.4).Conclusions: COVID-19 has given a significant boost to online conspiracy attitudes in Italy. In particular, the average web interest in conspiracy hypotheses has increased and become more uniform across regions. The pandemic accelerated an already growing trend in users' interest towards some fake news sources, including the 500,000 subscribers YouTube channel "ByoBlu" (canceled for disinformation in March 2021). The risk perception related to COVID-19 vaccines has been so distorted that vaccine side effects-related queries outweighed those relating to pollution and climate change, which are much more urgent issues. Based on these findings, it is necessary that the Italian authorities implement more effective infoveillance systems and communication by the mass media is less sensationalistic and more consistent with the available scientific evidence. In this context, Google Trends can be used to monitor the users' response to specific infodemiological countermeasures. Further research is needed to understand the psychological mechanisms that regulate risk perceptionKeywords: COVID-19, fake news, Google Trends, infodemiology, Italy, risk perception

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Conspiracy Attitudes and Risk Perception in Italy: an Infodemiological Survey through Google Trends. (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rovetta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Web

BACKGROUND The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused the worst international crisis since World War II. Italy was one of the countries most affected by both the pandemic and the related infodemic. The success of anti-COVID-19 strategies and future public health policies in Italy cannot prescind from containment of fake news and divulgation of correct information. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on conspiracy attitudes and risk perception of Italian web users. METHODS Google Trends was used to monitor users' web interest in specific topics, such as conspiracy hypotheses, vaccine side effects, and pollution/climate change. The keywords adopted to represent these topics were mined from Bufale.net – an Italian website specialized in detecting online hoaxes – and Google Trends suggestions (i.e., related topics and related queries). Relative search volumes of the timelapse 2016-2020 (pre-COVID-19) and 2020-2021 (post-COVID-19) were compared through percentage difference (∆_%) and Welch’s t-test (t). When data series were not stationary, other ad-hoc criteria were used. The trend slopes were assessed through Sen's Slope (SS). The significance thresholds have been indicatively set at P=.05 and t=1.9. RESULTS The COVID-19 pandemic drastically enforced Italian netizens' conspiracy attitudes (Δ_%∈[60,288],t∈[6,12]). The regional web interest towards conspiracy-related queries has increased and become more homogeneous compared to the pre-COVID-19 period ((RSV) ̅=80±2.8,t_min=1.8,Δ_(min%)=+12.4,min ∆_(SD%)=-25.8). Besides, a growing trend in web interest in the infodemic YouTube channel "ByoBlu" has been highlighted. The web interest in fake news has increased more than that in anti-hoax services (t_1=11.3 vs t_2=4.5,Δ_1=+157.6 vs Δ_2=+84.7). Equivalently, the web interest in vaccine side effects exceeded that in pollution/climate change (SS_vac=0.22,P<.001 vs SS_pol=0.05,P<.001,∆_%=+296.4). CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 has given a significant boost to online conspiracy attitudes in Italy. In particular, the average web interest in conspiracy hypotheses has increased and become more uniform across regions. The pandemic accelerated an already growing trend in users' interest towards some fake news sources, including the 500,000 subscribers YouTube channel "ByoBlu" (canceled for disinformation in March 2021). The risk perception related to COVID-19 vaccines has been so distorted that vaccine side effects-related queries outweighed those relating to pollution and climate change, which are much more urgent issues. Based on these findings, it is necessary that the Italian authorities implement more effective infoveillance systems and communication by the mass media is less sensationalistic and more consistent with the available scientific evidence. In this context, Google Trends can be used to monitor the users' response to specific infodemiological countermeasures. Further research is needed to understand the psychological mechanisms that regulate risk perception.

scholarly journals Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Stenzel ◽  
Peter Greve ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht ◽  
Sylvia Tramberend ◽  
Yoshihide Wada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Severe Water Stress ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated biomass plantations, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated biomass plantations, global warming by the end of the 21st century could be limited to 1.5 °C compared to a climate change scenario with 3 °C. However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.

The impact of global climate change on the characteristics of seasons in the Carpathian Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Csenge Dian ◽  
Rita Pongrácz ◽  
Judit Bartholy ◽  
Attila Talamon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Carpathian Basin ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Similarly to many other regions, warming and extreme weather conditions (e.g. related to temperature and precipitation) are expected to increase due to the effects of climate change in the Carpathian Basin during the 21st century. Consequently, as a result of the clearly detectable warming, the number of frost days in winter decreases and the summer heat waves become more frequent. The transition between winter and summer tends to become shorter and the inter-annual variability is likely to increase. The precise definition of the transition periods between the two extremes of the annual temperature course is very important for several disciplines, e.g. building energy design, where outdoor temperature is a key input to determine the beginning and end of heating and cooling periods. The aim of this research is to examine the possible transformation of the four seasons characteristics of the Carpathian Basin in details using various specific climate indexes (e.g. monthly percentiles, daily temperature fluctuation time series) based on the data of regional climate model simulations taking into account different future scenarios. For this purpose, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are compared to historical runs, and simulated temperature data series are analyzed for the middle and end of the century.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Complexity of Forces Driving Trend of Reference Evapotranspiration and Signals of Climate Change

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1081 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Valipour ◽  
Sayed M. Bateni ◽  
Mohammad Ali Gholami Sefidkouhi ◽  
Mahmoud Raeini-Sarjaz ◽  
Vijay P. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Serial Correlations ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
The Impact

Understanding the trends of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and its influential meteorological variables due to climate change is required for studying the hydrological cycle, vegetation restoration, and regional agricultural production. Although several studies have evaluated these trends, they suffer from a number of drawbacks: (1) they used data series of less than 50 years; (2) they evaluated the individual impact of a few climatic variables on ETo, and thus could not represent the interactive effects of all forces driving trends of ETo; (3) they mostly studied trends of ETo and meteorological variables in similar climate regions; (4) they often did not eliminate the impact of serial correlations on the trends of ETo and meteorological variables; and finally (5) they did not study the extremum values of meteorological variables and ETo. This study overcame the abovementioned shortcomings by (1) analyzing the 50-year (1961–2010) annual trends of ETo and 12 meteorological variables from 18 study sites in contrasting climate types in Iran, (2) removing the effect of serial correlations on the trends analysis via the trend-free pre-whitening approach, (3) determining the most important meteorological variables that control the variations of ETo, and (4) evaluating the coincidence of annual extremum values of meteorological variables and ETo. The results showed that ETo and several meteorological variables (namely wind speed, vapor pressure deficit, cloudy days, minimum relative humidity, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperature) had significant trends at the confidence level of 95% in more than 50% of the study sites. These significant trends were indicative of climate change in many regions of Iran. It was also found that the wind speed (WS) had the most significant influence on the trend of ETo in most of the study sites, especially in the years with extremum values of ETo. In 83.3% of the study sites (i.e., all arid, Mediterranean and humid regions and 66.7% of semiarid regions), both ETo and WS reached their extremum values in the same year. The significant changes in ETo due to WS and other meteorological variables have made it necessary to optimize cropping patterns in Iran.

scholarly journals Health effects of climate change: An online survey study of participants of three massive open online courses (MOOCs) (Preprint)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Barteit ◽  
Anneliese Depoux ◽  
Ali Sié ◽  
Maurice Yé ◽  
Valérie R. Louis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Online Courses ◽  
Massive Open Online Courses ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Massive Open Online ◽  
Learner Interaction ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Climate Change And Health

BACKGROUND The impact of climate change on health, adaptation measures and health co-benefits of mitigation have not been taught as topics in conventional face-to-face courses, such as in stand-alone, accredited short courses or as modules in Masters or PhD-level courses. Educational technologies such as massive open online courses (MOOCs) have high potential to substantially accelerate the dissemination of knowledge on the nexus of climate change and health. We developed three MOOCs teaching on the link between climate change and health. OBJECTIVE We conducted an online survey study to evaluate instructor-to-learner interaction (ITI), instructor support (IS), instructor feedback (IF), learner-to-learner interaction (LLI), course content (CC), course structure (CS), information delivery technology (IDT), perceived effectiveness (PE), learner retention (LR), as well as self-reported learner retention (SRLR). What did participants learn? Who and how many registered from the global North and South? What was the completion rate and how does it compare to average completion rates of MOOCs? What is the impact of knowledge acquired? METHODS Participants of all three MOOCs were invited to a post online survey study or the three climate change and health MOOCs. The survey consisted mainly out of no/yes/other and free text questions, as well as five five-point Likert items. We collected demographic information about education, age, gender, country of origin and current place of living. RESULTS In total, the MOOCs had a reach of almost 7000 students worldwide. 188 students took part in the online survey, with the highest percentage of MOOC-survey participants from low-income countries. The MOOCs were seen as useful, especially with regards to their professional impact, their coverage of content and their up-to-dateness in the topic area of climate change and health. The francophone MOOC was found to have an extraordinarily high number of participants from lower-income- and low-and-middle-income countries. The primary motivation to join the MOOC was to gain knowledge and skills on the topic of climate change and health. CONCLUSIONS Health is a top priority for citizens worldwide, and our results show that (i) globally there is great interest in the topic of climate change and health and (ii) that the three MOOCs were adequate to teach a global and diverse audience in this topic, reaching even participants from resource-low countries. Therefore, MOOCs should be included in the discussion on how to disseminate knowledge and methodological expertise globally, as they are an effective mean to explain and teach about the complex links and dynamics between climate change and health.

scholarly journals Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Stenzel ◽  
Peter Greve ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht ◽  
Sylvia Tramberend ◽  
Yoshihide Wada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Severe Water Stress ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals for irrigation warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated bioenergy, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated BECCS to limit global warming to 1.5°C, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress will double by the end of the 21st century, which could even exceed the impact of climate change avoided by the NEs (3°C warming). Such side-effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management would be implemented globally.

Analysis of the role of climatic and human factors in runoff variations (case study: Lighvan River in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran)

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 291-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Kanani ◽  
A. Fakheri Fard ◽  
M. A. Ghorbani ◽  
Y. Dinpashoh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Factors ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Lake Basin ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In recent years, river flows have significantly decreased due to regional or global climate change and human activities, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, the effects of climate change and human activities on the runoff responses were examined using hydrologic sensitivity analysis and hydrologic model simulation in the Lighvan basin located in the northwest of Iran. The Mann–Kendall test was applied to identify the trends in hydroclimatic data series. Also, the Pettitt test was used to detect change points in the annual discharge values and climatic variables. The results showed that there was negative trend in discharge data series, and examination of the climatic factors indicated that there was an increase in the temperature values and a decrease in the relative humidity values at the basin. The rapid changes in runoff values and most of the climatic variables occurred in the mid-1990s. The effect percentages of the human factors and climatic factors on runoff reduction in all the models used were 65–84% and 16–35%, respectively. Therefore, the impact of human activities on the river flow changes was significant.

The Impact of Anglicizing Former German-Language Psychology Journals on Authorship and Citation Frequencies

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 190-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Günter Krampen ◽  
Thomas Huckert ◽  
Gabriel Schui
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
English Language ◽  
General Trend ◽  
Native Language ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
German Language ◽  
Journal Articles ◽  
Number Of Citations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Number Of Authors

Exemplary for other than English-language psychology journals, the impact of recent Anglicization of five former German-language psychology journals on (1) authorship (nationality, i.e., native language, and number of authors, i.e., single or multiple authorships), (2) formal characteristics of the journal (number of articles per volume and length of articles), and (3) number of citations of the articles in other journal articles, the language of the citing publications, and the impact factors (IF) is analyzed. Scientometric data on these variables are gathered for all articles published in the four years before anglicizing and in the four years after anglicizing the same journal. Results reveal rather quick changes: Citations per year since original articles’ publication increase significantly, and the IF of the journals go up markedly. Frequencies of citing in German-language journals decrease, citing in English-language journals increase significantly after the Anglicization of former German-language psychology journals, and there is a general trend of increasing citations in other languages as well. Side effects of anglicizing former German-language psychology journals include the publication of shorter papers, their availability to a more international authorship, and a slight, but significant increase in multiple authorships.

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