Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

Abstract Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals for irrigation warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated bioenergy, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated BECCS to limit global warming to 1.5°C, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress will double by the end of the 21st century, which could even exceed the impact of climate change avoided by the NEs (3°C warming). Such side-effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management would be implemented globally.

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Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-21640-3 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Fabian Stenzel ◽

Peter Greve ◽

Wolfgang Lucht ◽

Sylvia Tramberend ◽

Yoshihide Wada ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Stress ◽

Side Effects ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Carbon Capture And Storage ◽

Change Scenario ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Use Patterns ◽

Severe Water Stress ◽

The Impact

AbstractBioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated biomass plantations, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated biomass plantations, global warming by the end of the 21st century could be limited to 1.5 °C compared to a climate change scenario with 3 °C. However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.

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Environmental assessment of amending the Amager Bakke incineration plant in Copenhagen with carbon capture and storage

Waste Management & Research ◽

10.1177/0734242x211048125 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 0734242X2110481

Author(s):

V. Bisinella ◽

J. Nedenskov ◽

Christian Riber ◽

Tore Hulgaard ◽

Thomas H. Christensen

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Carbon Capture And Storage ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Waste Incineration ◽

Heat Output ◽

Net Energy ◽

District Heating System ◽

The Impact ◽

And Storage

Amending municipal solid waste incineration with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a new approach that can reduce the climate change impacts of waste incineration. This study provides a detailed analysis of the consequences of amending the new Amager Bakke incinerator in Copenhagen (capacity: 600,000 tonnes waste per year) with CCS as a post-combustion technology. Emphasis is on the changes in the energy flows and outputs as well as the environmental performance of the plant; the latter is assessed by life cycle assessment. Amending Amager Bakke with CCS of the chosen configuration reduces the electricity output by 50% due to steam use by the capture unit, but introducing post-capture flue gas condensation increases the heat output utilized in the Copenhagen district heating system by 20%. Thus, the overall net energy efficiency is not affected. The CCS amendment reduces the fossil CO2 emissions to 40 kg CO2 per tonne of incinerated waste and stores 530 kg biogenic CO2 per tonne of incinerated waste. Potential developments in the composition of the residual waste incinerated or in the energy systems that Amager Bakke interacts with, do not question the benefits of the CCS amendment. In terms of climate change impacts, considering different waste composition and energy system scenarios, introducing CCS reduces in average the impact of Amager Bakke by 850 kg CO2-equivalents per tonne of incinerated waste. CCS increases the environmental impacts in other categories, but not in the same order of magnitude as the savings introduced within climate change.

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What shapes public support for climate change mitigation policies? The role of descriptive social norms and elite cues

Behavioural Public Policy ◽

10.1017/bpp.2020.43 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-25

Author(s):

ADRIAN RINSCHEID ◽

SILVIA PIANTA ◽

ELKE U. WEBER

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Social Norms ◽

Climate Policy ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Carbon Capture And Storage ◽

Experimental Manipulation ◽

Policy Support ◽

Descriptive Norms ◽

Climate Policies ◽

The Impact

Abstract What are the roles of bottom-up and top-down signals in the formation of climate change policy preferences? Using a large sample of American residents (n = 1520) and combining an experimental manipulation of descriptive social norms with two choice experiments, we investigate the effects of descriptive norms and policy endorsements by key political actors on climate policy support. We study these questions in two areas considered to be central in a number of decarbonization pathways: the phase-out of fossil fuel-powered cars and the deployment of carbon capture and storage. Our study provides two important results. First, social norm interventions may be no silver bullet for increasing citizens’ support for ambitious climate policies. In fact, we not only find that climate policy support is unaffected by norm messages communicating an increased diffusion of pro-environmental behaviors, but also that norm messages communicating the prevalence of non-sustainable behaviors decrease policy support. Second, in the presence of policy endorsements by political parties, citizens’ trust in these parties influences their support for climate policies. This study contributes to research in behavioral climate policy by examining the impact of descriptive norms and elite cues on climate policy support.

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Could Climate Change Limit Water Availability for Coal-Fired Electricity Generation with Carbon Capture and Storage? A UK Case Study

Energy & Environment ◽

10.1260/0958-305x.23.2-3.265 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 23 (2-3) ◽

pp. 265-282 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Meleesa Naughton ◽

Richard C. Darton ◽

Fai Fung

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Electricity Generation ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Carbon Capture And Storage ◽

Limiting Factor ◽

Regulatory Constraints ◽

Historical Factors ◽

The Impact ◽

And Storage

Anticipatory adaptation to climate change requires the impact of future changes in water availability to be investigated prior to deployment of low-carbon electricity generation infrastructure. Here we investigate whether climate change may limit water availability for a proposed coal-fired (CF) power station site with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). We find that climate change may pose constraints on water availability, and that regulatory constraints on water abstraction licences may affect CF electricity generation with CCS. The regulatory constraints associated with the current misalignment of water and energy policies are explored through interviews with stakeholders. We find that water availability has not been identified as a potential limiting factor for future CF electricity generation with CCS and that current UK energy policy, combined with economic and historical factors, may exacerbate the water demand of CF electricity generation with CCS. These issues need to be addressed prior to deployment of CCS technology.

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The Role of Uncertainty in Controlling Climate Change

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance ◽

10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.573 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Yongyang Cai

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Carbon Capture And Storage ◽

Greenland Ice Sheet ◽

Equilibrium Temperature ◽

Inequality Aversion ◽

Carbon Taxes ◽

The Impact ◽

Climate Damages ◽

Economic Risks

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their geophysical sector determines the mean surface temperature increase over the preindustrial level, which in turn determines the damage function. Most of the existing IAMs assume that all of the future information is known. However, there are significant uncertainties in the climate and economic system, including parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, climate tipping risks, and economic risks. For example, climate sensitivity, a well-known parameter that measures how much the equilibrium temperature will change if the atmospheric carbon concentration doubles, can range from below 1 to more than 10 in the literature. Climate damages are also uncertain. Some researchers assume that climate damages are proportional to instantaneous output, while others assume that climate damages have a more persistent impact on economic growth. The spatial distribution of climate damages is also uncertain. Climate tipping risks represent (nearly) irreversible climate events that may lead to significant changes in the climate system, such as the Greenland ice sheet collapse, while the conditions, probability of tipping, duration, and associated damage are also uncertain. Technological progress in carbon capture and storage, adaptation, renewable energy, and energy efficiency are uncertain as well. Future international cooperation and implementation of international agreements in controlling climate change may vary over time, possibly due to economic risks, natural disasters, or social conflict. In the face of these uncertainties, policy makers have to provide a decision that considers important factors such as risk aversion, inequality aversion, and sustainability of the economy and ecosystem. Solving this problem may require richer and more realistic models than standard IAMs and advanced computational methods. The recent literature has shown that these uncertainties can be incorporated into IAMs and may change optimal climate policies significantly.

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Experimental study of the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient in porous media under reservoir conditions

Royal Society Open Science ◽

10.1098/rsos.181902 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (6) ◽

pp. 181902 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Junchen Lv ◽

Yuan Chi ◽

Changzhong Zhao ◽

Yi Zhang ◽

Hailin Mu

Keyword(s):

Porous Media ◽

Diffusion Coefficient ◽

Oil Recovery ◽

Carbon Capture ◽

Carbon Capture And Storage ◽

Elevated Pressure ◽

Experimental Results ◽

Saturated Porous Media ◽

Reservoir Conditions ◽

The Impact

Reliable measurement of the CO 2 diffusion coefficient in consolidated oil-saturated porous media is critical for the design and performance of CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects. A thorough experimental investigation of the supercritical CO 2 diffusion in n -decane-saturated Berea cores with permeabilities of 50 and 100 mD was conducted in this study at elevated pressure (10–25 MPa) and temperature (333.15–373.15 K), which simulated actual reservoir conditions. The supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficients in the Berea cores were calculated by a model appropriate for diffusion in porous media based on Fick's Law. The results show that the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient increases as the pressure, temperature and permeability increase. The supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient first increases slowly at 10 MPa and then grows significantly with increasing pressure. The impact of the pressure decreases at elevated temperature. The effect of permeability remains steady despite the temperature change during the experiments. The effect of gas state and porous media on the supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient was further discussed by comparing the results of this study with previous study. Based on the experimental results, an empirical correlation for supercritical CO 2 diffusion coefficient in n -decane-saturated porous media was developed. The experimental results contribute to the study of supercritical CO 2 diffusion in compact porous media.

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Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Groundwater Recharge in Groundwater Regions in Taiwan

Water ◽

10.3390/w13091153 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 1153

Author(s):

Shih-Jung Wang ◽

Cheng-Haw Lee ◽

Chen-Feng Yeh ◽

Yong Fern Choo ◽

Hung-Wei Tseng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Recharge ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Regression Equations ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Groundwater Systems ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Assessment Results

Climate change can directly or indirectly influence groundwater resources. The mechanisms of this influence are complex and not easily quantified. Understanding the effect of climate change on groundwater systems can help governments adopt suitable strategies for water resources. The baseflow concept can be used to relate climate conditions to groundwater systems for assessing the climate change impact on groundwater resources. This study applies the stable baseflow concept to the estimation of the groundwater recharge in ten groundwater regions in Taiwan, under historical and climate scenario conditions. The recharge rates at the main river gauge stations in the groundwater regions were assessed using historical data. Regression equations between rainfall and groundwater recharge quantities were developed for the ten groundwater regions. The assessment results can be used for recharge evaluation in Taiwan. The climate change estimation results show that climate change would increase groundwater recharge by 32.6% or decrease it by 28.9% on average under the climate scenarios, with respect to the baseline quantity in Taiwan. The impact of climate change on groundwater systems may be positive. This study proposes a method for assessing the impact of climate change on groundwater systems. The assessment results provide important information for strategy development in groundwater resources management.

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Assessing biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on regional avian biodiversity

Scientific Reports ◽

10.1038/s41598-021-82474-z ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Simon Kapitza ◽

Pham Van Ha ◽

Tom Kompas ◽

Nick Golding ◽

Natasha C. R. Cadenhead ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Integrated Modelling ◽

Land Use Patterns ◽

Economic Changes ◽

Use Patterns ◽

Modelling Framework ◽

Avian Biodiversity ◽

Biodiversity Change ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractClimate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species’ geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia and we find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts. However, by translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.

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Communicating water-related climate change hazards to local stakeholders

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8368 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Laura Müller ◽

Petra Döll

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Management ◽

Climate Change Impact ◽

Biosphere Reserve ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

Model Ensemble ◽

Hydrological Hazards ◽

Local Stakeholders ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact

Due to climate change, the water cycle is changing which requires to adapt water management in many regions. The transdisciplinary project KlimaRh&#246;n aims at assessing water-related risks and developing adaptation measures in water management in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Rh&#246;n in Central Germany. One of the challenges is to inform local stakeholders about hydrological hazards in in the biosphere reserve, which has an area of only 2433 km&#178; and for which no regional hydrological simulations are available. To overcome the lack of local simulations of the impact of climate change on water resources, existing simulations by a number of global hydrological models (GHMs) were evaluated for the study area. While the coarse model resolution of 0.5&#176;x0.5&#176; (55 km x 55 km at the equator) is certainly problematic for the small study area, the advantage is that both the uncertainty of climate simulations and hydrological models can be taken into account to provide a best estimate of future hazards and their (large) uncertainties. This is different from most local hydrological climate change impact assessments, where only one hydrological model is used, which leads to an underestimation of future uncertainty as different hydrological models translate climatic changes differently into hydrological changes and, for example, mostly do not take into account the effect of changing atmospheric CO2 on evapotranspiration and thus runoff. &#160;&#160;The global climate change impact simulations were performed in a consistent manner by various international modeling groups following a protocol developed by ISIMIP (ISIMIP 2b, www.isimip.org); the simulation results are freely available for download. We processed, analyzed and visualized the results of the multi-model ensemble, which consists of eight GHMs driven by the bias-adjusted output of four general circulation models. The ensemble of potential changes of total runoff and groundwater recharge were calculated for two 30-year future periods relative to a reference period, analyzing annual and seasonal means as well as interannual variability. Moreover, the two representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and 8.5 were chosen to inform stakeholders about two possible courses of anthropogenic emissions.To communicate the results to local stakeholders effectively, the way to present modeling results and their uncertainty is crucial. The visualization and textual/oral presentation should not be overwhelming but comprehensive, comprehensible and engaging. It should help the stakeholder to understand the likelihood of particular hazards that can be derived from multi-model ensemble projections. In this contribution, we present the communication approach we applied during a stakeholder workshop as well as its evaluation by the stakeholders.

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Investigation of Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Stream Flow of Guder Catchment, Ethiopia

10.21203/rs.3.rs-976225/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Bekam Bekele Gulti ◽

Boja Mokonnen Manyazew ◽

Abdulkerim Bedewi Serur

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Stream Flow ◽

Open Space ◽

Smart Growth ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Study Region ◽

Climate Conditions ◽

Change Impact ◽

The Impact

Abstract Climate change (CC) and land use/cover change (LUCC) are the main drivers of streamflow change. In this paper, we investigate the impact of climate and LULC change impact on stream flow of Guder catchment by using Soil and Water Assessment model (SWAT). The scenarios were designed in a way that LULC was changed while climate conditions remain constant; LULC was then held constant under a changing climate and combined effect of both. The result shows that, the combined impacts of climate change and LULC dynamics can be rather different from the effects that follow-on from LULC or climate change alone. Streamflow would be more sensitive to climate change than to the LULC changes scenario, even though changes in LULC have far-reaching influences on streamflow in the study region. A comprehensive strategy of low impact developments, smart growth, and open space is critical to handle future changes to streamflow systems.

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