scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Conspiracy Attitudes and Risk Perception in Italy: an Infodemiological Survey through Google Trends.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rovetta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Web

Background: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused the worst international crisis since World War II. Italy was one of the countries most affected by both the pandemic and the related infodemic. The success of anti-COVID-19 strategies and future public health policies in Italy cannot prescind from containment of fake news and divulgation of correct information.Objective: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on conspiracy attitudes and risk perception of Italian web users.Methods: Google Trends was used to monitor users' web interest in specific topics, such as conspiracy hypotheses, vaccine side effects, and pollution/climate change. The keywords adopted to represent these topics were mined from Bufale.net – an Italian website specialized in detecting online hoaxes – and Google Trends suggestions (i.e., related topics and related queries). Relative search volumes of the timelapse 2016-2020 (pre-COVID-19) and 2020-2021 (post-COVID-19) were compared through percentage difference (∆_%) and Welch’s t-test (t). When data series were not stationary, other ad-hoc criteria were used. The trend slopes were assessed through Sen's Slope (SS). The significance thresholds have been indicatively set at P=.05 and t=1.9.Results: The COVID-19 pandemic drastically enforced Italian netizens' conspiracy attitudes (Δ_%∈[60,288],t∈[6,12]). The regional web interest towards conspiracy-related queries has increased and become more homogeneous compared to the pre-COVID-19 period ((RSV) ̅=80±2.8,t_min=1.8,Δ_(min%)=+12.4,min ∆_(SD%)=-25.8). Besides, a growing trend in web interest in the infodemic YouTube channel "ByoBlu" has been highlighted. The web interest in fake news has increased more than that in anti-hoax services (t_1=11.3 vs t_2=4.5,Δ_1=+157.6 vs Δ_2=+84.7). Equivalently, the web interest in vaccine side effects exceeded that in pollution/climate change (SS_vac=0.22,P<.001 vs SS_pol=0.05,P<.001,∆_%=+296.4).Conclusions: COVID-19 has given a significant boost to online conspiracy attitudes in Italy. In particular, the average web interest in conspiracy hypotheses has increased and become more uniform across regions. The pandemic accelerated an already growing trend in users' interest towards some fake news sources, including the 500,000 subscribers YouTube channel "ByoBlu" (canceled for disinformation in March 2021). The risk perception related to COVID-19 vaccines has been so distorted that vaccine side effects-related queries outweighed those relating to pollution and climate change, which are much more urgent issues. Based on these findings, it is necessary that the Italian authorities implement more effective infoveillance systems and communication by the mass media is less sensationalistic and more consistent with the available scientific evidence. In this context, Google Trends can be used to monitor the users' response to specific infodemiological countermeasures. Further research is needed to understand the psychological mechanisms that regulate risk perceptionKeywords: COVID-19, fake news, Google Trends, infodemiology, Italy, risk perception

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Conspiracy Attitudes and Risk Perception in Italy: an Infodemiological Survey through Google Trends. (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rovetta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Web

BACKGROUND The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused the worst international crisis since World War II. Italy was one of the countries most affected by both the pandemic and the related infodemic. The success of anti-COVID-19 strategies and future public health policies in Italy cannot prescind from containment of fake news and divulgation of correct information. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on conspiracy attitudes and risk perception of Italian web users. METHODS Google Trends was used to monitor users' web interest in specific topics, such as conspiracy hypotheses, vaccine side effects, and pollution/climate change. The keywords adopted to represent these topics were mined from Bufale.net – an Italian website specialized in detecting online hoaxes – and Google Trends suggestions (i.e., related topics and related queries). Relative search volumes of the timelapse 2016-2020 (pre-COVID-19) and 2020-2021 (post-COVID-19) were compared through percentage difference (∆_%) and Welch’s t-test (t). When data series were not stationary, other ad-hoc criteria were used. The trend slopes were assessed through Sen's Slope (SS). The significance thresholds have been indicatively set at P=.05 and t=1.9. RESULTS The COVID-19 pandemic drastically enforced Italian netizens' conspiracy attitudes (Δ_%∈[60,288],t∈[6,12]). The regional web interest towards conspiracy-related queries has increased and become more homogeneous compared to the pre-COVID-19 period ((RSV) ̅=80±2.8,t_min=1.8,Δ_(min%)=+12.4,min ∆_(SD%)=-25.8). Besides, a growing trend in web interest in the infodemic YouTube channel "ByoBlu" has been highlighted. The web interest in fake news has increased more than that in anti-hoax services (t_1=11.3 vs t_2=4.5,Δ_1=+157.6 vs Δ_2=+84.7). Equivalently, the web interest in vaccine side effects exceeded that in pollution/climate change (SS_vac=0.22,P<.001 vs SS_pol=0.05,P<.001,∆_%=+296.4). CONCLUSIONS COVID-19 has given a significant boost to online conspiracy attitudes in Italy. In particular, the average web interest in conspiracy hypotheses has increased and become more uniform across regions. The pandemic accelerated an already growing trend in users' interest towards some fake news sources, including the 500,000 subscribers YouTube channel "ByoBlu" (canceled for disinformation in March 2021). The risk perception related to COVID-19 vaccines has been so distorted that vaccine side effects-related queries outweighed those relating to pollution and climate change, which are much more urgent issues. Based on these findings, it is necessary that the Italian authorities implement more effective infoveillance systems and communication by the mass media is less sensationalistic and more consistent with the available scientific evidence. In this context, Google Trends can be used to monitor the users' response to specific infodemiological countermeasures. Further research is needed to understand the psychological mechanisms that regulate risk perception.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Conspiracy Hypotheses and Risk Perception in Italy: Infodemiological Survey Study Using Google Trends

10.2196/29929 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. e29929
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rovetta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Percentage Difference ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
The Impact

Background COVID-19 has caused the worst international crisis since World War II. Italy was one of the countries most affected by both the pandemic and the related infodemic. The success of anti–COVID-19 strategies and future public health policies in Italy cannot separate itself from the containment of fake news and the divulgation of correct information. Objective The aim of this paper was to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on web interest in conspiracy hypotheses and risk perception of Italian web users. Methods Google Trends was used to monitor users’ web interest in specific topics, such as conspiracy hypotheses, vaccine side effects, and pollution and climate change. The keywords adopted to represent these topics were mined from Bufale.net—an Italian website specializing in detecting online hoaxes—and Google Trends suggestions (ie, related topics and related queries). Relative search volumes (RSVs) of the time-lapse periods of 2016-2020 (pre–COVID-19) and 2020-2021 (post–COVID-19) were compared through percentage difference (∆%) and the Welch t test (t). When data series were not stationary, other ad hoc criteria were used. The trend slopes were assessed through Sen slope (SS). The significance thresholds have been indicatively set at P=.05 and t=1.9. Results The COVID-19 pandemic drastically increased Italian netizens’ interest in conspiracies (∆% ∈ [60, 288], t ∈ [6, 12]). Web interest in conspiracy-related queries across Italian regions increased and became more homogeneous compared to the pre–COVID-19 period (average RSV=80±2.8, tmin=1.8, ∆min%=+12.4, min∆SD%=–25.8). In addition, a growing trend in web interest in the infodemic YouTube channel ByoBlu has been highlighted. Web interest in hoaxes has increased more than interest in antihoax services (t1=11.3 vs t2=4.5; Δ1%=+157.6 vs Δ2%=+84.7). Equivalently, web interest in vaccine side effects exceeded interest in pollution and climate change (SSvaccines=0.22, P<.001 vs SSpollution=0.05, P<.001; ∆%=+296.4). To date, a significant amount of fake news related to COVID-19 vaccines, unproven remedies, and origin has continued to circulate. In particular, the creation of SARS-CoV-2 in a Chinese laboratory constituted about 0.04% of the entire web interest in the pandemic. Conclusions COVID-19 has given a significant boost to web interest in conspiracy hypotheses and has made it more uniform across regions in Italy. The pandemic accelerated an already-growing trend in users’ interest toward some fake news sources, including the 500,000-subscriber YouTube channel ByoBlu, which was removed from the platform by YouTube for disinformation in March 2021. The risk perception related to COVID-19 vaccines has been so distorted that vaccine side effect–related queries outweighed those relating to pollution and climate change, which are much more urgent issues. Moreover, a large amount of fake news has circulated about COVID-19 vaccines, remedies, and origin. Based on these findings, it is recommended that the Italian authorities implement more effective infoveillance systems, and that communication by the mass media be less sensationalistic and more consistent with the available scientific evidence. In this context, Google Trends can be used to monitor users’ response to specific infodemiological countermeasures. Further research is needed to understand the psychological mechanisms that regulate risk perception.

scholarly journals What Is the Consensus from Multiple Conclusions of Future Crop Yield Changes Affected by Climate Change in China?

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9241
Author(s):  
Chengfang Huang ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Zhengtao Zhang ◽  
Yuan Liu ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Systematic Review Methodology ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Yield Decrease

Many studies have shown that climate change has a significant impact on crop yield in China, while results have varied due to uncertain factors. This study has drawn a highly consistent consensus from the scientific evidence based on numerous existing studies. By a highly rational systematic review methodology, we obtained 737 result samples with the theme of climate change affecting China’s crop yields. Then, we used likelihood scale and trend analysis methods to quantify the consensus level and uncertainty interval of these samples. The results showed that: (i) The crop yield decrease in the second half of the 21st century will be greater than 5% of that in the first half. (ii) The crop most affected by climate change will be maize, with the decreased value exceeding −25% at the end of this century, followed by rice and wheat exceeding −10% and −5%. (iii) The positive impact of CO2 on crop yield will change by nearly 10%. Our conclusions clarify the consensus of the impact of future climate change on China’s crop yield, and this study helps exclude the differences and examine the policies and actions that China has taken and should take in response to climate change.

scholarly journals The Impact of Term Fake News on the Scientific Community. Scientific Performance and Mapping in Web of Science

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Alonso García ◽  
Gerardo Gómez García ◽  
Mariano Sanz Prieto ◽  
Antonio José Moreno Guerrero ◽  
Carmen Rodríguez Jiménez
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Community ◽  
Web Of Science ◽  
Research Community ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Scientific Performance ◽  
Impact Indicators ◽  
The World ◽  
Multidisciplinary Perspective ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Web

Nowadays, multiple phenomena have promoted an impact on society, constituting in some cases, not only a contribution of benefits but also of risks. Among them, the fake news phenomenon is considered one of the most burning phenomena today due to the risk it poses to society. In view of this situation, the research community has carried out numerous studies that seek to address this issue from a multidisciplinary perspective. Based on this, the objective of this work was to analyze the productivity and, therefore, the impact of this topic in the research community. To this end, this work advocated a scientometric-type methodology, through scientometric laws, impact indicators, and scientific evolution of 640 publications of the web of science (WOS). The results showed the impact of the fake news discipline today, which is considered an emerging issue that is of interest to many knowledge disciplines around the world. Likewise, the results showed that the publications not only have a focus on analyzing the veracity or not of the news, but that it begins to vertebrate a new line of an investigation directed to the informational education and towards the prevention of the consumption of this type of news through the internet.

An Overview (and Criticism) of Methods to Detect Fake Content Online

2021 ◽  
pp. 412-421
Author(s):  
Antonio Badia
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Fake News ◽  
Algorithmic Approaches ◽  
Future Work ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Web ◽  
Offensive Speech

The recent controversy over ‘fake news' reminds us of one of the main problems on the web today: the utilization of social media and other outlets to distribute false and misleading content. The impact of this problem is very significant. This article discusses the issue of fake content on the web. First, it defines the problem and shows that, in many cases, it is surprisingly hard to establish when a piece of news is untrue. It distinguishes the issue of fake content from issues of hate/offensive speech (while there is a relation, the issues involved are a bit different). It then overviews proposed solutions to the problem of fake content detection, both algorithmic and human. On the algorithmic side, it focuses on work on classifiers. The chapter shows that most algorithmic approaches have significant issues, which has led to reliance on the human approach in spite of its known limitations (subjectivity, difficulty to scale). Finally, it closes with a discussion of potential future work.

Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Rolf Müller and Jens-Uwe Grooß"

2014 ◽  
Vol 28 (13) ◽  
pp. 1482002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Q.-B. Lu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Total Ozone ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Ozone Loss ◽  
Polar Stratosphere ◽  
The Impact

In their Comment, Müller and Grooß continuously use problematic "observed data" and misleading arguments to make a case against our CRE mechanism of the ozone hole and CFC-warming mechanism of global climate change. They make the groundless assertion that the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent process for ozone loss in the polar stratosphere. Their claim that the impact of the CRE mechanism on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere would be limited does not agree with the observed data over the past decades. They also make many contradictory and fact-distorting arguments that "There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1–2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20–25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error." These assertions ignore and contradict a great deal of robust observed data from both laboratory and field measurements reported in the literature including their own publications. Their new argument for the photodissociation of CFCs on PSCs also contradicts their previous extraordinary efforts including the use of fabricated "ACE-FTS satellite data" to argue for no physical/chemical loss of CFCs in the winter lower polar stratosphere. Finally, they do not provide any scientific evidence to support their criticism for the no physical basis of the CFC-warming theory and its conclusions. In summary, their misleading arguments and false "data" do not change the convincing conclusion reached by robust observations in my recent paper that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O 3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

scholarly journals Local perceptions of climate change validated by scientific evidence in the Himalayas

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 767-770 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pashupati Chaudhary ◽  
Kamaljit S. Bawa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Considerable Change ◽  
Scientific Data ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Agricultural Pests ◽  
Local Perceptions ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

The Himalayas are assumed to be undergoing rapid climate change, with serious environmental, social and economic consequences for more than two billion people. However, data on the extent of climate change or its impact on the region are meagre. Based on local knowledge, we report perceived changes in climate and consequences of such changes for biodiversity and agriculture. Our analyses are based on 250 household interviews administered in 18 villages, and focused group discussions conducted in 10 additional villages in Darjeeling Hills, West Bengal, India and Ilam district of Nepal. There is a widespread feeling that weather is getting warmer, the water sources are drying up, the onset of summer and monsoon has advanced during last 10 years and there is less snow on mountains than before. Local perceptions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity included early budburst and flowering, new agricultural pests and weeds and appearance of mosquitoes. People at high altitudes appear more sensitive to climate change than those at low altitudes. Most local perceptions conform to scientific data. Local knowledge can be rapidly and efficiently gathered using systematic tools. Such knowledge can allow scientists to test specific hypotheses, and policy makers to design mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change, especially in an extraordinarily important part of our world that is experiencing considerable change.

scholarly journals Irrigation of biomass plantations may globally increase water stress more than climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabian Stenzel ◽  
Peter Greve ◽  
Wolfgang Lucht ◽  
Sylvia Tramberend ◽  
Yoshihide Wada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Stress ◽  
Side Effects ◽  
Carbon Capture ◽  
Carbon Capture And Storage ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
Severe Water Stress ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated biomass plantations, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated biomass plantations, global warming by the end of the 21st century could be limited to 1.5 °C compared to a climate change scenario with 3 °C. However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.

scholarly journals The Influence of Mass Media on Italian Web Users during COVID-19: an Infodemiological Analysis.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Rovetta ◽  
Lucia Castaldo
Keyword(s):  
Mass Media ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Average Correlation ◽  
Web Searches ◽  
Information Giving ◽  
The Press ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Web

Background: Alongside the COVID-19 pandemic, the world has had to face a growing infodemic, which has caused severe damage to economic and health systems and has often compromised the effectiveness of infection containment regulations. Although this has spread mainly through social media, there are numerous occasions in which the mass media have shared dangerous information, giving resonance to statements without a scientific basis. For these reasons, infoveillance and infodemiology methods are increasingly exploited to monitor online information traffic. The same tools have also been used to make epidemiological predictions. Among these, Google Trends - a service by GoogleTM that quantifies the web interest of users in the form of relative search volume - has often been adopted by the scientific community. Objective: The purpose of this paper is to use Google Trends to estimate the impact of Italian mass media on users' web searches in order to understand the role of press and television channels in both the infodemic and the interest of Italian netizens on COVID-19.Methods: First, from January 2020 to March 2021, we collected the headlines containing specific COVID-19-related keywords published on PubMed, Google, the Ministry of Health, and the most read newspapers in Italy. These keywords were selected based on previous literature and the related queries of Google Trends. Second, we evaluated the percentage of infodemic terms on these platforms. Third, through Google Trends, we looked for correlations between newspaper headlines and Google searches related to COVID-19. We assessed the significance and intensity of changes in user web searches through Welch's t-test and percentage differences or increases. We also highlighted the presence of trends via the Mann-Kendall test. Finally, we analyzed the web interest in infodemic content posted on YouTube. In particular, we counted the number of views of videos containing disinformation for each channel considered.Results: During the first COVID-19 wave, the Italian press preferred to draw on infodemic terms (from 1.6% to 6.3%) and moderately infodemic terms (from 88% to 94%), while scientific sources favored the correct names (from 65% to 88%). The correlational analysis showed that the press heavily influenced users in adopting the terms to identify the novel coronavirus (best average correlation = 0.91, P-value &lt;.001). The use of scientific denominations by the press reached acceptable values only during the third wave (about 80% except for Rai and Mediaset). Web queries about COVID-19 symptoms also appeared to be influenced by the press (best average correlation = .92, P&lt;.007). Furthermore, users have shown a pronounced web interest in YouTube videos of an infodemic nature. Finally, the press gave resonance to serious fake news on COVID-19 that caused pronounced spikes of interest from web users.Conclusions: Our results suggest that the Italian mass media have played a decisive role both in the spread of the infodemic and in addressing netizens' web interest, thus favoring the adoption of terms unsuitable for identifying the novel coronavirus (COVID- 19 disease). Therefore, it is highly advisable that the directors of news channels and newspapers be more cautious and government dissemination agencies exert more control over such news.

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