scholarly journals Online Information Exchange and Anxiety Spread in the Early Stage of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak in South Korea: Structural Topic Model and Network Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wonkwang Jo ◽  
Jaeho Lee ◽  
Junli Park ◽  
Yeol Kim
Keyword(s):  
Topic Model ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Physical Symptoms ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Online Information ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Self Protection ◽  
Structural Topic Model

BACKGROUND In case of a population-wide infectious disease outbreak, such as the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), people’s online activities could significantly affect public concerns and health behaviors due to difficulty in accessing credible information from reliable sources, which in turn causes people to seek necessary information on the web. Therefore, measuring and analyzing online health communication and public sentiment is essential for establishing effective and efficient disease control policies, especially in the early stage of an outbreak. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the trends of online health communication, analyze the focus of people’s anxiety in the early stages of COVID-19, and evaluate the appropriateness of online information. METHODS We collected 13,148 questions and 29,040 answers related to COVID-19 from Naver, the most popular Korean web portal (January 20, 2020, to March 2, 2020). Three main methods were used in this study: (1) the structural topic model was used to examine the topics in the online questions; (2) word network analysis was conducted to analyze the focus of people’s anxiety and worry in the questions; and (3) two medical doctors assessed the appropriateness of the answers to the questions, which were primarily related to people’s anxiety. RESULTS A total of 50 topics and 6 cohesive topic communities were identified from the questions. Among them, topic community 4 (suspecting COVID-19 infection after developing a particular symptom) accounted for the largest portion of the questions. As the number of confirmed patients increased, the proportion of topics belonging to topic community 4 also increased. Additionally, the prolonged situation led to a slight increase in the proportion of topics related to job issues. People’s anxieties and worries were closely related with physical symptoms and self-protection methods. Although relatively appropriate to suspect physical symptoms, a high proportion of answers related to self-protection methods were assessed as misinformation or advertisements. CONCLUSIONS Search activity for online information regarding the COVID-19 outbreak has been active. Many of the online questions were related to people’s anxieties and worries. A considerable portion of corresponding answers had false information or were advertisements. The study results could contribute reference information to various countries that need to monitor public anxiety and provide appropriate information in the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, including COVID-19. Our research also contributes to developing methods for measuring public opinion and sentiment in an epidemic situation based on natural language data on the internet.

scholarly journals Online Information Exchange and Anxiety Spread in the Early Stage of the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak in South Korea: Structural Topic Model and Network Analysis

10.2196/19455 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. e19455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wonkwang Jo ◽  
Jaeho Lee ◽  
Junli Park ◽  
Yeol Kim
Keyword(s):  
Topic Model ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Physical Symptoms ◽  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
Online Information ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreak ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Self Protection ◽  
Structural Topic Model

Background In case of a population-wide infectious disease outbreak, such as the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), people’s online activities could significantly affect public concerns and health behaviors due to difficulty in accessing credible information from reliable sources, which in turn causes people to seek necessary information on the web. Therefore, measuring and analyzing online health communication and public sentiment is essential for establishing effective and efficient disease control policies, especially in the early stage of an outbreak. Objective This study aimed to investigate the trends of online health communication, analyze the focus of people’s anxiety in the early stages of COVID-19, and evaluate the appropriateness of online information. Methods We collected 13,148 questions and 29,040 answers related to COVID-19 from Naver, the most popular Korean web portal (January 20, 2020, to March 2, 2020). Three main methods were used in this study: (1) the structural topic model was used to examine the topics in the online questions; (2) word network analysis was conducted to analyze the focus of people’s anxiety and worry in the questions; and (3) two medical doctors assessed the appropriateness of the answers to the questions, which were primarily related to people’s anxiety. Results A total of 50 topics and 6 cohesive topic communities were identified from the questions. Among them, topic community 4 (suspecting COVID-19 infection after developing a particular symptom) accounted for the largest portion of the questions. As the number of confirmed patients increased, the proportion of topics belonging to topic community 4 also increased. Additionally, the prolonged situation led to a slight increase in the proportion of topics related to job issues. People’s anxieties and worries were closely related with physical symptoms and self-protection methods. Although relatively appropriate to suspect physical symptoms, a high proportion of answers related to self-protection methods were assessed as misinformation or advertisements. Conclusions Search activity for online information regarding the COVID-19 outbreak has been active. Many of the online questions were related to people’s anxieties and worries. A considerable portion of corresponding answers had false information or were advertisements. The study results could contribute reference information to various countries that need to monitor public anxiety and provide appropriate information in the early stage of an infectious disease outbreak, including COVID-19. Our research also contributes to developing methods for measuring public opinion and sentiment in an epidemic situation based on natural language data on the internet.

scholarly journals Graphical Trajectory Comparison to Identify Errors in Data of COVID-19: A Cross-Country Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 955
Author(s):  
Lan Yao ◽  
Wei Dong ◽  
Jim Y. Wan ◽  
Scott C. Howard ◽  
Minghui Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreak ◽  
History Of Disease ◽  
History Of ◽  
Country Analysis ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Epidemiology And Public Health

Data from the early stage of a novel infectious disease outbreak provide vital information in risk assessment, prediction, and precise disease management. Since the first reported case of COVID-19, the pattern of the novel coronavirus transmission in Wuhan has become the interest of researchers in epidemiology and public health. To thoroughly map the mechanism of viral spreading, we used the patterns of data at the early onset of COVID-19 from seven countries to estimate the time lag between peak days of cases and deaths. This study compared these data with those of Wuhan and estimated the natural history of disease across the infected population and the time lag. The findings suggest that comparative analyses of data from different regions and countries reveal the differences between peaks of cases and deaths caused by COVID-19 and the incomplete and underestimated cases in Wuhan. Different countries may show different patterns of cases peak days, deaths peak days, and peak periods. Error in the early COVID-19 statistics in Brazil was identified. This study provides sound evidence for policymakers to understand the local circumstances in diagnosing the health of a population and propose precise and timely public health interventions to control and prevent infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Digital Tracing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: User Appraisal, Emotion, and Continuance Intention

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 608
Author(s):  
Ayoung Suh ◽  
Mengjun Li
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Personal Privacy ◽  
Continuance Intention ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreak ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Technological Affordances ◽  
Method Approach

This study explores how people appraise the use of contact tracing apps during the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in South Korea. Despite increasing attention paid to digital tracing for health disasters, few studies have empirically examined user appraisal, emotion, and their continuance intention to use contact tracing apps for disaster management during an infectious disease outbreak. A mixed-method approach combining qualitative and quantitative inquiries was employed. In the qualitative study, by conducting interviews with 25 people who have used mobile apps for contact tracing, the way users appraise contact tracing apps for COVID-19 was explored. In the quantitative study, using data collected from 506 users of the apps, the interplay among cognitive appraisal (threats and opportunities) and its association with user emotion, and continuance intention was examined. The findings indicate that once users experience loss emotions, such as anger, frustration, and disgust, they are not willing to continue using the apps. App designers should consider providing technological affordances that enable users to have a sense of control over the technology so that they do not experience loss emotions. Public policymakers should also consider developing measures that can balance public health and personal privacy.

NEW INSPIRATION FROM CHINA'S PHILOSOPHY OF "UNITY OF MAN AND HEAVEN": CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS UNDER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
pp. 21-34
Author(s):  
PU JINGXIN
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Human Society ◽  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
New Type ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Ancient Chinese ◽  
Self Protection ◽  
Harmonious Community

Abstract: The danger of the novel coronavirus has not yet come to an end, and new variants have begun to attack the world. What philosophy should humankind’s strategy be based on when human society as a group is fighting against Covid-19, as the pandemic ravages the world? Unfortunately, political leaders of various countries have failed to achieve the overall awareness of attacking the pandemic for a shared future for mankind so far. In the face of the pandemic, mankind as a whole urgently needs to break through the narrow nation-oriented ideology of seeking only self-protection. The International Community should establish a new type of international cooperation featuring the concept of harmony of "all things under heaven as a unity". The international relations system dominated by the power ofwestern discourse is now in a bottleneck. The main aim of this article is to study the ancient Chinese wisdom of "the Unity of Man and Heaven" philosophy and build a global harmonious community. The author argues that the “export” of the aforementioned wisdom must be a priority for Chinese scholars. Keywords: Tao; Unity of Man and Heaven; Novel Coronavirus; Anthropocentrism; Harmony.

scholarly journals The Impact of Armed Conflict on the Epidemiological Situation of COVID-19 in Libya, Syria and Yemen

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohamed A. Daw
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact

Background: Since the Arab uprising in 2011, Libya, Syria and Yemen have gone through major internal armed conflicts. This resulted in large numbers of deaths, injuries, and population displacements, with collapse of the healthcare systems. Furthermore, the situation was complicated by the emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic, which made the populations of these countries struggle under unusual conditions to deal with both the pandemic and the ongoing wars. This study aimed to determine the impact of the armed conflicts on the epidemiology of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) within these war-torn countries and highlight the strategies needed to combat the spread of the pandemic and its consequences.Methods: Official and public data concerning the dynamics of the armed conflicts and the spread of SARS-COV-2 in Libya, Syria and Yemen were collected from all available sources, starting from the emergence of COVID-19 in each country until the end of December 2020. Datasets were analyzed by a set of statistical techniques and the weekly resolved data were used to probe the link between the intensity levels of the conflict and the prevalence of COVID-19.Results: The data indicated that there was an increase in the intensity of the violence at an early stage from March to August 2020, when it approximately doubled in the three countries, particularly in Libya. During that period, few cases of COVID-19 were reported, ranging from 5 to 53 cases/day. From September to December 2020, a significant decline in the intensity of the armed conflicts was accompanied by steep upsurges in the rate of COVID-19 cases, which reached up to 500 cases/day. The accumulative cases vary from one country to another during the armed conflict. The highest cumulative number of cases were reported in Libya, Syria and Yemen.Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that the armed conflict provided an opportunity for SARS-CoV-2 to spread. The early weeks of the pandemic coincided with the most intense period of the armed conflicts, and few cases were officially reported. This indicates undercounting and hidden spread during the early stage of the pandemic. The pandemic then spread dramatically as the armed conflict declined, reaching its greatest spread by December 2020. Full-blown transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in these countries is expected. Therefore, urgent national and international strategies should be implemented to combat the pandemic and its consequences.

scholarly journals Endocrine changes in SARS-CoV-2 patients and lessons from SARS-CoV

2020 ◽  
Vol 96 (1137) ◽  
pp. 412-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shubham Agarwal ◽  
Sanjeev Kumar Agarwal
Keyword(s):  
Disease Outbreak ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Endocrine Glands ◽  
Sars Coronavirus ◽  
Endocrine Disturbances ◽  
Clinical Presentations ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Convalescence Phase ◽  
Significant Mortality

Coronavirus infection outbreaks have occurred frequently in the last two decades and have led to significant mortality. Despite the focus on reducing mortality by preventing the spread of the virus, patients have died due to several other complications of the illness. The understanding of pathological mechanisms and their implications is continuously evolving. A number of symptoms occur in these patients due to the involvement of various endocrine glands. These clinical presentations went largely unnoticed during the first outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2002–2003. A few of these derangements continued during the convalescence phase and sometimes occurred after recovery. Similar pathological and biochemical changes are being reported with the novel coronavirus disease outbreak in 2020. In this review, we focus on these endocrine changes that have been reported in both SARS coronavirus and SARS coronavirus-2. As we battle the pandemic, it becomes imperative to address these underlying endocrine disturbances that are contributing towards or predicting mortality of these patients.

scholarly journals The basic reproduction number and prediction of the epidemic size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in Shahroud, Iran

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Khosravi ◽  
R. Chaman ◽  
M. Rohani-Rasaf ◽  
F. Zare ◽  
S. Mehravaran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Epidemic Size ◽  
Serial Interval ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Interval Distribution ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Abstract The aim of this study was to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 in the early stage of the epidemic and predict the expected number of new cases in Shahroud in Northeastern Iran. The R0 of COVID-19 was estimated using the serial interval distribution and the number of incidence cases. The 30-day probable incidence and cumulative incidence were predicted using the assumption that daily incidence follows a Poisson distribution determined by daily infectiousness. Data analysis was done using ‘earlyR’ and ‘projections’ packages in R software. The maximum-likelihood value of R0 was 2.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.1−3.4) for the COVID-19 epidemic in the early 14 days and decreased to 1.13 (95% CI 1.03–1.25) by the end of day 42. The expected average number of new cases in Shahroud was 9.0 ± 3.8 cases/day, which means an estimated total of 271 (95% CI: 178–383) new cases for the period between 02 April to 03 May 2020. By day 67 (27 April), the effective reproduction number (Rt), which had a descending trend and was around 1, reduced to 0.70. Based on the Rt for the last 21 days (days 46–67 of the epidemic), the prediction for 27 April to 26 May is a mean daily cases of 2.9 ± 2.0 with 87 (48–136) new cases. In order to maintain R below 1, we strongly recommend enforcing and continuing the current preventive measures, restricting travel and providing screening tests for a larger proportion of the population.

scholarly journals Abdominal symptoms as an initial manifestation of COVID-19 infection: Report of two cases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
PATRÍCIA YOKOO ◽  
Eduardo Kaiser Ururahy Nunes Fonseca ◽  
Marcelo Oranges Filho ◽  
Rodrigo Caruso Chate ◽  
Gilberto Szarf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Department ◽  
Respiratory Symptoms ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Initial Finding ◽  
Initial Manifestation ◽  
Abdominal Symptoms ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Lung Base

Abstract The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic started in December 2019 in Wuhan (Hubei, China) and spread rapidly; therefore, it is essential to detect the disease at an early stage and immediately isolate the infected patients [1]. The most common symptoms of COVID-19 infection include fever, asthenia, cough and dyspnea [2]. However, some patients are asymptomatic from the respiratory symptoms, and may only present abdominal manifestations as an initial finding, what creates a diagnostic challenge.We describe two cases with diagnostic confirmations of COVID-19 who showed up at the Emergency Department with abdominal symptoms before presenting respiratory manifestations, and who had their initial suspicion based on the findings of the thoracoabdominal transition, demonstrating the importance of an adequate assessment of the lung base images.

scholarly journals Who Should Get Vaccinated First? An effective Network Information-driven Priority Vaccination Strategy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dong Liu ◽  
Chi Kong Tse ◽  
Rosa H. M. Chan ◽  
Choujun Zhan
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Vaccination Programs ◽  
Network Information ◽  
Network Properties ◽  
Effective Network ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract Approval of emergency use of the Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in many countries has brought hope to ending the COVID-19 pandemic sooner. Considering the limited vaccine supply in the early stage of COVID-19 vaccination programs in most countries, a highly relevant question to ask is: who should get vaccinated first? In this article we propose a network information- driven vaccination strategy where a small number of people in a network (population) are categorized, according to a few key network properties, into priority groups. Using a network-based SEIR model for simulating the pandemic progression, the network information-driven vaccination strategy is compared with a random vaccination strategy. Results for both large-scale synthesized networks and real social networks have demonstrated that the network information-driven vaccination strategy can significantly reduce the cumulative number of infected individuals and lead to a more rapid containment of the pandemic. The results provide insight for policymakers in designing an effective early-stage vaccination plan.

scholarly journals Immunopathogenesis of COVID-19 and early immunomodulators

2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 239-250 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyung-Yil Lee ◽  
Jung-Woo Rhim ◽  
Jin-Han Kang
Keyword(s):  
Lung Injury ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Biochemical Properties ◽  
Etiologic Agent ◽  
Host Immune System ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Immune Mediated ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Current Guidelines

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is spreading globally. Although its etiologic agent is discovered as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), there are many unsolved issues in COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. The causes of different clinical phenotypes and incubation periods among individuals, species specificity, and cytokine storm with lymphopenia as well as the mechanism of damage to organ cells are unknown. It has been suggested that in viral pneumonia, virus itself is not a direct cause of acute lung injury; rather, aberrant immune reactions of the host to the insults from viral infection are responsible. According to its epidemiological and clinical characteristics, SARS-CoV-2 may be a virus with low virulence in nature that has adapted to the human species. Current immunological concepts have limited ability to explain such unsolved issues, and a presumed immunopathogenesis of COVID-19 is presented under the proteinhomeostasis-system hypothesis. Every disease, including COVID-19, has etiological substances controlled by the host immune system according to size and biochemical properties. Patients with severe pneumonia caused by SARS-CoV-2 show more severe hypercytokinemia with corresponding lymphocytopenia than patients with mild pneumonia; thus, early immunomodulator treatment, including corticosteroids, has been considered. However, current guidelines recommend their use only for patients with advanced pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome. Since the immunopathogenesis of pneumonia may be the same for all patients regardless of age or severity and the critical immune-mediated lung injury may begin in the early stage of the disease, early immunomodulator treatment, including corticosteroids and intravenous immunoglobulin, can help reduce morbidity and possibly mortality rates of older patients with underlying conditions.

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