scholarly journals Latin America and the Caribbean SARS-Cov-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lori Post ◽  
Ramael O Ohiomoba ◽  
Ashley Maras ◽  
Sean J Watts ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
The Bahamas ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
Positive Acceleration ◽  
The Caribbean

BACKGROUND SARS-CoV-19, the virus that causes COVID-19, is a global pandemic that has placed unprecedented stress on national economies, food systems and healthcare resources in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This region has become an epicenter for the coronavirus, with Brazil and Mexico leading the globe in deaths following the U.S. in death count. Existing surveillance provides a proxy on COVID-19 caseload and deaths; however, these measures make it difficult to identify shifts to the pandemic and changes in the speed and acceleration in COVID-19. Accordingly, we provide an enhanced surveillance system to complement static metrics with dynamic ones that inform hen there are shifts and where explosive growth is likely to occur in LAC. OBJECTIVE This study aims to provide additional surveillance metrics for SARS-Cov-2 transmission that more accurately tracks shifts in the pandemic, speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence in transmission than existing metrics. Enhanced surveillance will inform policy and COVID-19 outbreaks for leaders in LAC. METHODS Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 45 days of COVID data from public health registries. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Latin America and Caribbean region as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS COVID transmission rates were tracked for Latin America and the Caribbean during the weeks of 9/30-10/06 and 10/07-10/13. New cases in the region totaled 79,053 on 10/06 and 42,837 on 10/13. The 7-day moving average of new cases for the week of 10/6 was 56,106 and for the week of 10/13 was 47,276. Total infection rate decreased from 12.42 to 6.73 accompanied by a death rate decrease from 0.33 to 0.24. Within the region, on 9/30, Brazil had the largest number of new cases at 41,906 followed by Argentina at 14,740, Colombia at 7,650, and Mexico at 4,828. On 10/07, Argentina had the largest number of new cases in the region at 13,305, followed by Brazil at 10,220, Colombia at 5,014, and Mexico at 4,295. For both weeks, Brazil had the highest 7-day moving average, followed by Argentina. The region as a whole saw a decrease in speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of 10/13 compared to the week of 10/6, accompanied by a decrease in new cases and 7-day moving average. For the week of 10/6, Belize had the highest acceleration and jerk in the region, at 1.7 and 1.8 respectively, which is particularly concerning given the high death rate in the country. The Bahamas also had a high acceleration at 1.5. 11 countries had a positive acceleration during the week of 10/6 whereas only six countries had a positive acceleration for the week of 10/13. The region overall is trending positively, with a speed of 10.40, an acceleration of 0.27, and a jerk of -0.31 all decreasing the subsequent week to 9.04, -0.81 and -0.03 respectively. CONCLUSIONS 1) Metrics such as new cases, cumulative cases, deaths, and 7-day moving averages provide a static view of the pandemic but fail to identify where and the speed at which SARS-CoV-19 is infecting new persons, the rate at which the speed is accelerating or decelerating and comparing this week to last week, how the rate of acceleration is increasing or decreasing indicate pending explosive growth or control of the pandemic; and 2) Although Latin America and the Caribbean saw an overall decrease in speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of 10/13 compared to the week of 10/6, accompanied by a decrease in new cases and 7-day moving average, this is largely due to decreases in infections in Brazil and Mexico, the two countries containing over 50% of the population in the region. However, Brazil continues to have the highest 7-day moving average in the region, more than two times that of Argentina, the next highest in the region. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals Latin America and the Caribbean SARS-Cov-2 Surveillance: Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

10.2196/25728 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lori Post ◽  
Ramael O Ohiomoba ◽  
Ashley Maras ◽  
Sean J Watts ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
The Caribbean

Canada SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance System: Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lori Post ◽  
Michael J Boctor ◽  
Tariq Z Issa ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
Robert Leo Murphy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Positive Acceleration ◽  
National Leaders ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

BACKGROUND The COVID-19 global pandemic has disrupted structures and communities across the globe. Numerous regions of the world have had varying responses in their attempts to contain the spread of the virus. Varying factors such as public health policies, governance, and sociopolitical factors, have led to differential levels of success at controlling the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Ultimately, a more advanced surveillance metric for COVID-19 transmission is necessary to help government systems and national leaders understand which responses have been effective and gauge where outbreaks occur. OBJECTIVE The goal of this study is to provide advanced Canadian surveillance metrics at the Province level for COVID-19 transmission that account for shifts in the pandemic, week over week, speed, acceleration, jerk and persistence, to better understand country risk for explosive growth and those who are managing the pandemic successfully. Existing surveillance coupled with our dynamic metrics of transmission will inform health policy to control the COVID-19 pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed and provides novel metrics to measure the transmission of disease. METHODS Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 52 days of COVID data from public health registries for 14 Provinces and Territories. We use an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in Canada as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. RESULTS We compare the week of October 11-17 with the week of October 18-24. Canada, as a whole, had an increase in 7-day average COVID-19 cases from 1965 per 100,000 population during October 11-17 to 2043 per 100,000 population during October 18-24. Evaluating Canada’s COVID-19 at the subnational level is necessary to identify where the novel coronavirus is transmitting to prevent future outbreaks. Alberta, BC, Ontario and Manitoba had positive acceleration of cases for October 11-17 at 2.21, 1.23, .97, and .71 respectively per 100,000 population, however, these same provinces experienced deceleration one week later at -2.06, -1.06, -.71, and -.16.; Moreover, the positive jerk experienced during October 11-17 at 2.18, 1.19, 2.15 and 1.57 reversed course and jerked downward during October 18 to 24 at -4.96, -2.44, -1.39, and -.19 respectively. CONCLUSIONS While Canada maintained good COVID-19 control policies that resulted in fewer transmissions, the first week of this study on October 11-17 resulted in increases in new cases, increased rates of infections, increased acceleration and jerk in infections for the most populated provinces. These same provinces reversed course whereby the number of new cases decreased, the speed of new infections decelerated, and experienced a negative jerk in COVID-19 per 100,000 population during the week of October 12-24. The surge followed by a significant decrease is consistent with Canadians celebrating Thanksgiving on October 12, 2020. While no Province or Territory has exceeded 1000 cases per day, new sources of COVID-19 expected from the pending Wave 2 of COVID-19 transmissions could result in novel outbreaks. It is not time for Canada to declare victory over COVID-19 transmissions or to be complacent just because there were decreases this past week. To that end, Canada must remain vigilant and continue implementing those policies that caused the Canadian outbreak to reverse course and decrease. CLINICALTRIAL NA

scholarly journals Surveillance Metrics of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission in Central Asia: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

10.2196/25799 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. e25799
Author(s):  
Lori Ann Post ◽  
Elana T Benishay ◽  
Charles B Moss ◽  
Robert Leo Murphy ◽  
Chad J Achenbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Dynamic Panel Model ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Longitudinal Trend ◽  
Positive Acceleration

Background SARS-CoV-2, the virus that caused the global COVID-19 pandemic, has severely impacted Central Asia; in spring 2020, high numbers of cases and deaths were reported in this region. The second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is currently breaching the borders of Central Asia. Public health surveillance is necessary to inform policy and guide leaders; however, existing surveillance explains past transmissions while obscuring shifts in the pandemic, increases in infection rates, and the persistence of the transmission of COVID-19. Objective The goal of this study is to provide enhanced surveillance metrics for SARS-CoV-2 transmission that account for weekly shifts in the pandemic, including speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence, to better understand the risk of explosive growth in each country and which countries are managing the pandemic successfully. Methods Using a longitudinal trend analysis study design, we extracted 60 days of COVID-19–related data from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to measure the daily number of cases in the Central Asia region as a function of the prior number of cases, level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. Results COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the weeks of September 30 to October 6 and October 7-13, 2020, in Central Asia. The region averaged 11,730 new cases per day for the first week and 14,514 for the second week. Infection rates increased across the region from 4.74 per 100,000 persons to 5.66. Russia and Turkey had the highest 7-day moving averages in the region, with 9836 and 1469, respectively, for the week of October 6 and 12,501 and 1603, respectively, for the week of October 13. Russia has the fourth highest speed in the region and continues to have positive acceleration, driving the negative trend for the entire region as the largest country by population. Armenia is experiencing explosive growth of COVID-19; its infection rate of 13.73 for the week of October 6 quickly jumped to 25.19, the highest in the region, the following week. The region overall is experiencing increases in its 7-day moving average of new cases, infection, rate, and speed, with continued positive acceleration and no sign of a reversal in sight. Conclusions The rapidly evolving COVID-19 pandemic requires novel dynamic surveillance metrics in addition to static metrics to effectively analyze the pandemic trajectory and control spread. Policy makers need to know the magnitude of transmission rates, how quickly they are accelerating, and how previous cases are impacting current caseload due to a lag effect. These metrics applied to Central Asia suggest that the region is trending negatively, primarily due to minimal restrictions in Russia.

scholarly journals A review of emergency room studies on alcohol and injuries conducted in Latin America and the Caribbean region

2012 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 737-746 ◽  
Author(s):  
GABRIEL ANDREUCCETTI ◽  
HERACLITO B. CARVALHO ◽  
RACHAEL KORCHA ◽  
YU YE ◽  
JASON BOND ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Emergency Room ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
The Caribbean

The Relevance of the Responsibility to Protect for Latin America and the Caribbean Region: Prevention and The Role of Civil Society

2011 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 266-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilberto M. A. Rodrigues ◽  
Andrés Serbin
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Civil Society ◽  
Responsibility To Protect ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
General Strategy ◽  
Traditional Role ◽  
Research Education ◽  
Peaceful Resolution ◽  
The Caribbean

AbstractThe authors argue in this article that the main dimensions to be considered regarding the implementation of the Responsibility to Protect in Latin America and the Caribbean are the preventive dimension and, eventually the rebuilding dimension. The preventive dimension of the Responsibility to Protect cannot be dissociated from a general strategy of armed or violent conflict prevention, and should not be focused only in the prevention of mass atrocities. In the framework of the juridical and cultural legacy of the region, special attention should be directed to avoid considering the reactive dimension of RtoP, as well-embedded principles of national sovereignty, non-intervention and regional peaceful resolution of disputes obstruct any attempt of external intervention, even if they are related to international community initiatives. In this regard, the authors argue that the traditional role of regional organisations and mechanisms in peaceful resolution of inter-state conflicts, should be deepened, combined and coordinated with civil society initiatives, in the implementation of RtoP. The role of civil society organisations and networks should be strengthened through an increasing capacity building process, which includes developing skills and capacities to address both prevention and early warning, and which ought to be based on research, education and networking.

scholarly journals Environmental isotope applications in Latin America and the Caribbean region

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 387-390
Author(s):  
David X. Soto ◽  
Ricardo Sánchez-Murillo ◽  
Lucía Ortega ◽  
Orlando Mauricio Quiroz Londoño ◽  
Luis J. Araguás-Araguás ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Environmental Isotope ◽  
The Caribbean

A review of assessment indicators used by Healthy Municipalities and Communities Program in Latin America and the Caribbean region

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 714-729
Author(s):  
Raul Chaparro ◽  
Santiago Melendi ◽  
Marilina Santero ◽  
Mariana Seijo ◽  
Natalia Elorriaga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Promotion ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Lifestyle Changes ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Promotion Policies ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Evaluation And Monitoring ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The Healthy Municipalities and Communities Strategy (HMCS) was developed by the Pan American Health Organization in 1990. Evaluation and monitoring are fundamental components of health promotion policies. The aim of this study is to explore the indicators used in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) countries to assess the performance of HMCS. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, BVSDE and Google Advanced Search for documents published between January 2000 and April 2016. We included only documents with assessment indicators of the strategy. All articles were independently assessed for eligibility by pairs of reviewers. We classified the indicators with a supporting framework proposed by O’Neill and Simard (Choosing indicators to evaluate Healthy Cities projects: a political task? Health Promot Int 2006, 21, 145–152.). Local level indicators figured far more prominently among countries and were distributed both in projects and specific activities. Regarding the evolution of the HMCS, indicators were reported in the five levels of analysis (local projects and activities, provincial, national and international networks). Empowerment was represented through the presence of active community organizations and different methods of community participation (forums, open hearing and participation maps). Public policies (such as for tobacco cessation) and bylaws adherence and changes in school’s curricula regarding healthy eating were frequently mentioned. However, this review demonstrated that impact indicators related to lifestyle changes or built environment are not clearly defined and there is a lack of indicators to measure progress in achieving change in long-term outcomes in LAC. We highlight the importance of designing validated indicators for measuring the impact of health promotion policies in partnership with each country involved.

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