scholarly journals On the relation between climate stabilization and greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century.

2000 ◽  
Vol 28 ◽  
pp. 421-428
Author(s):  
Yuzuru MATSUOKA ◽  
Yohei KAWAGUCHI
Author(s):  
Inna Mitrofanova ◽  

Today the issue of Russia’s low-carbon development and the necessity in cutting down Greenhouse emissions, first of all, carbon dioxide (СO2) is very acute. Over the recent years a lot of documents and regulatory legal acts have appeared in Russia, one way or another related to the decarbonization of the economy, including “National Climate Change Adaptation Plan”, the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, “Strategy for the Long-Term Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2050”, draft Federal Law “On State Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals”, “The Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy in Russia up to 2050”. Russia needs a network of carbon landfills, its own non-discriminatory system for measuring the balance of greenhouse gases, this is the most important factor of national security today. In the near future, the system of calculations will be worked out on the territory of seven regions: the Chechen Republic, the Krasnodar Krai, Kaliningrad, Sakhalin, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk and Tyumen Regions. Since 2020, a pilot project of a carbon landfill has been implemented in Kaluga Region, on lands located within the borders of the Ugra National Park. To finance these projects, it is necessary to attract funds from national projects, first of all, the NP “Clean Air”. Carbon farms are a complex of technologies that enable the absorption of greenhouse gases, and so far for Russia it is mainly forest rather than agricultural technologies. There are about 11 million square kilometers of forests in Russia, and this is a unique reservoir for absorbing CO2, so the 21st century is the century of Russia, which has every chance to become the most important player in the sequestration industry. It is fundamentally important for Russia to become a world leader and gain a high rate of carbon farms development throughout the country. However, there is an acute shortage of qualified personnel for this type of activity in the country, so one of the strategic tasks for Russian universities today is to train specialists for the new sequestration industry in the conditions of a new and inevitable reality – total decarbonization of the economy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 11041-11052
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere accelerates ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, equatorial upper startosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 parts per million more ozone in scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre CFC-era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.


2009 ◽  
pp. 107-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bashmakov

On the eve of the worldwide negotiations of a new climate agreement in December 2009 in Copenhagen it is important to clearly understand what Russia can do to mitigate energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in the medium (until 2020) and in the long term (until 2050). The paper investigates this issue using modeling tools and scenario approach. It concludes that transition to the "Low-Carbon Russia" scenarios must be accomplished in 2020—2030 or sooner, not only to mitigate emissions, but to block potential energy shortages and its costliness which can hinder economic growth.


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