scholarly journals Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO<sub>x</sub> on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 11041-11052
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Solar Uv ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.

scholarly journals Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere accelerates ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, equatorial upper startosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 parts per million more ozone in scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre CFC-era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.

Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Polar Ozone

&lt;p&gt;Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of the anthropogenic climate change, cooler stratosphere accelerates the ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, higher polar ozone levels than pre CFC-era are obtained in scenarios that have highest atmospheric radiative forcing. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere forms an exception, where different scenarios have similar level of ozone during winter. This results from excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending from above in stronger future scenarios. NOx is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and is potentially able to prevent the super recovery in the upper stratosphere.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone in the post-CFC era

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 20223-20237 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Li ◽  
R. S. Stolarski ◽  
P. A. Newman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Advective Transport ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975–1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post-CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

The influence of transport model resolution on the inverse modelling of synthetic greenhouse gas emissions in Switzerland

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Katharopoulos ◽  
Dominique Rust ◽  
Martin Vollmer ◽  
Dominik Brunner ◽  
Stefan Reimann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Inverse Modelling ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone Layer

&lt;p&gt;Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of the modern era. Halocarbons contribute already about 14% to current anthropogenic radiative forcing, and their future impact may become significantly larger due to their long atmospheric lifetimes and continued and increasing usage. In addition to their influence on climate change, chlorine and bromine-containing halocarbons are the main drivers of the destruction of the stratospheric ozone layer. Therefore, observing their atmospheric abundance and quantifying their sources is critical for predicting the related future impact on climate change and on the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Regional scale atmospheric inverse modelling can provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at a country scale and, hence, makes valuable information available to policy makers when reviewing emission mitigation strategies and confirming the countries' pledges for emission reduction. Considering that inverse modelling relies on accurate atmospheric transport modelling any advances to the latter are of key importance. The main objective of this work is to characterize and improve the Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) FLEXPART-COSMO at kilometer-scale resolution and to provide estimates of Swiss halocarbon emissions by integrating newly available halocarbon observations from the Swiss Plateau at the Berom&amp;#252;nster tall tower. The transport model is offline coupled with the regional numerical weather prediction model (NWP) COSMO. Previous inverse modelling results for Swiss greenhouse gases are based on a model resolution of 7 km x 7 km. Here, we utilize higher resolution (1 km x 1 km) operational COSMO analysis fields to drive FLEXPART and compare these to the previous results.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The higher resolution simulations exhibit increased three-dimensional dispersion, leading to a general underestimation of observed tracer concentration at the receptor location and when compared to the coarse model results. The concentration discrepancies due to dispersion between the two model versions cannot be explained by the parameters utilized in FLEPXART&amp;#8217;s turbulence parameterization, (Obhukov length, surface momentum and heat fluxes, atmospheric boundary layer heights, and horizontal and vertical wind speeds), since a direct comparison of these parameters between the different model versions showed no significant differences. The latter suggests that the dispersion differences may originate from a duplication of turbulent transport, on the one hand, covered by the high resolution grid of the Eulerian model and, on the other hand, diagnosed by FLEXPART's turbulence scheme. In an attempt to reconcile FLEXPART-COSMO&amp;#8217;s turbulence scheme at high resolution, we introduced additional scaling parameters based on analysis of simulated mole fraction deviations depending on stability regime. In addition, we used FLEXPART-COSMO source sensitivities in a Bayesian inversion to obtain optimized emission estimates. Inversions for both the high and low resolution models were carried out in order&amp;#160;to quantify the impact of model resolution on posterior emissions and estimate about the uncertainties of these emissions.&amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Life Cycle Assessment of a Hydrogen and Fuel Cell RoPax Ferry Prototype

2020 ◽  
pp. 5-23
Author(s):  
Juan Camilo Gomez Trillos ◽  
Dennis Wilken ◽  
Urte Brand ◽  
Thomas Vogt
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Fuel Cell ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Maritime Transportation ◽  
Tidal Power ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Orkney Islands

AbstractEstimates for the greenhouse gas emissions caused by maritime transportation account for approx. 870 million tonnes of CO2 tonnes in 2018, increasing the awareness of the public in general and requiring the development of alternative propulsion systems and fuels to reduce them. In this context, the project HySeas III is developing a hydrogen and fuel cell powered roll-on/roll off and passenger ferry intended for the crossing between Kirkwall and Shapinsay in the Orkney Islands in Scotland, a region which currently has an excess of wind and tidal power. In order to explore the environmental aspects of this alternative, a life cycle assessment from cradle to end-of-use using the ReCiPe 2016 method was conducted, contrasting the proposed prototype developed within the project against a conventional diesel ferry and a diesel hybrid ferry. The results show that the use of hydrogen derived from wind energy and fuel cells for ship propulsion allow the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of up to 89% compared with a conventional diesel ferry. Additional benefits are lower stratospheric ozone depletion, ionizing radiation, ozone formation, particulate matter formation, terrestrial acidification and use of fossil resources. In turn, there is an increase in other impact categories when compared with diesel electric and diesel battery electric propulsion. Additionally, the analysis of endpoint categories shows less impact in terms of damage to human health, to the ecosystems and to resource availability for the hydrogen alternative compared to conventional power trains.

scholarly journals Gross discrepancies between observed and simulated 20th-21st-century precipitation trends in Southeastern South America

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-44
Author(s):  
Arianna M. Varuolo-Clarke ◽  
Jason E. Smerdon ◽  
A. Park Williams ◽  
Richard Seager
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Precipitation Trends

AbstractSoutheastern South America (SESA; encompassing Paraguay, Southern Brazil, Uruguay, and northern Argentina) experienced a 27% increase in austral summer precipitation from 1902-2019, one of the largest observed trends in seasonal precipitation globally. Previous research identifies Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and anthropogenic forcing from stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas emissions as key factors contributing to the positive precipitation trends in SESA. We analyze multi-model ensemble simulations from Phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and find that not only do Earth System Models simulate positive SESA precipitation trends that are much weaker over the historical interval, but some models persistently simulate negative SESA precipitation trends under historical forcings. Similarly, 16-member ensembles from two atmospheric models forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures never simulate precipitation trends that even reach the lower bound of the observed trend’s range of uncertainty. Moreover, while future 21st-century projections from CMIP6 yield positive ensemble mean precipitation trends over SESA that grow with increasing greenhouse-gas emissions, the mean forced response never exceeds the observed historical trend. Pre-industrial control runs from CMIP6 indicate that some models do occasionally simulate centennial-scale trends in SESA that fall within the observational range, but most models do not. Results point to significant uncertainties in the attribution of anthropogenically forced influences on the observed increases in precipitation over SESA, while also suggesting that internal decadal-to-centennial variability of unknown origin and not present in state-of-the-art models may have also played a large role in generating the 20th-21st-century SESA precipitation trend.

scholarly journals Decarbonization of the Economy – the General Trend of Development of Russia and Its Regions in the 21st Century

2021 ◽  
pp. 4-13
Author(s):  
Inna Mitrofanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Pilot Project ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Hydrogen Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Gas Emissions

Today the issue of Russia’s low-carbon development and the necessity in cutting down Greenhouse emissions, first of all, carbon dioxide (СO2) is very acute. Over the recent years a lot of documents and regulatory legal acts have appeared in Russia, one way or another related to the decarbonization of the economy, including “National Climate Change Adaptation Plan”, the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, “Strategy for the Long-Term Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2050”, draft Federal Law “On State Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals”, “The Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy in Russia up to 2050”. Russia needs a network of carbon landfills, its own non-discriminatory system for measuring the balance of greenhouse gases, this is the most important factor of national security today. In the near future, the system of calculations will be worked out on the territory of seven regions: the Chechen Republic, the Krasnodar Krai, Kaliningrad, Sakhalin, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk and Tyumen Regions. Since 2020, a pilot project of a carbon landfill has been implemented in Kaluga Region, on lands located within the borders of the Ugra National Park. To finance these projects, it is necessary to attract funds from national projects, first of all, the NP “Clean Air”. Carbon farms are a complex of technologies that enable the absorption of greenhouse gases, and so far for Russia it is mainly forest rather than agricultural technologies. There are about 11 million square kilometers of forests in Russia, and this is a unique reservoir for absorbing CO2, so the 21st century is the century of Russia, which has every chance to become the most important player in the sequestration industry. It is fundamentally important for Russia to become a world leader and gain a high rate of carbon farms development throughout the country. However, there is an acute shortage of qualified personnel for this type of activity in the country, so one of the strategic tasks for Russian universities today is to train specialists for the new sequestration industry in the conditions of a new and inevitable reality – total decarbonization of the economy.

scholarly journals Stratospheric ozone in the post-CFC era

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 2207-2213 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Li ◽  
R. S. Stolarski ◽  
P. A. Newman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Advective Transport ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Column Ozone ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975–1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post-CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

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