scholarly journals Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere accelerates ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, equatorial upper startosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 parts per million more ozone in scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre CFC-era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.

scholarly journals Effects of enhanced downwelling of NO<sub>x</sub> on Antarctic upper-stratospheric ozone in the 21st century

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (14) ◽  
pp. 11041-11052
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Solar Uv ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ozone is expected to fully recover from the chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of anthropogenic climate change, a cooler stratosphere decelerates ozone loss reactions and is projected to lead to a super recovery of ozone. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, the equatorial upper stratosphere has roughly 0.5 to 1.0 ppm more ozone in the scenario with the highest greenhouse gas emissions compared to the conservative scenario. Polar ozone levels exceed those in the pre-CFC era in scenarios that have the highest greenhouse gas emissions. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere is an exception, where different scenarios all have similar levels of ozone during winter, which do not exceed pre-CFC levels. Our results show that this is due to excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending faster from above in the stronger scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. NOx in the polar thermosphere and upper mesosphere is mainly produced by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and partly by solar UV via transport from low latitudes. Our results indicate that the thermospheric/upper mesospheric NOx will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution and could potentially prevent a super recovery of ozone in the upper stratosphere.

Ozone super recovery cancelled in the Antarctic upper stratosphere

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
The Antarctic ◽  
Polar Ozone

&lt;p&gt;Ozone is expected to fully recover from the CFC-era by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, because of the anthropogenic climate change, cooler stratosphere accelerates the ozone production and is projected to lead to a super recovery. We investigate the ozone distribution over the 21st century with four different future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). At the end of the 21st century, higher polar ozone levels than pre CFC-era are obtained in scenarios that have highest atmospheric radiative forcing. This is true in the Arctic stratosphere and the Antarctic lower stratosphere. The Antarctic upper stratosphere forms an exception, where different scenarios have similar level of ozone during winter. This results from excess nitrogen oxides (NOx) descending from above in stronger future scenarios. NOx is formed by energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in the thermosphere and the upper mesosphere, and descends faster through the mesosphere in stronger scenarios. This indicates that the EEP indirect effect will be important factor for the future Antarctic ozone evolution, and is potentially able to prevent the super recovery in the upper stratosphere.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September–December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4413-4427 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Siddaway ◽  
S. V. Petelina ◽  
D. J. Karoly ◽  
A. R. Klekociuk ◽  
R. J. Dargaville
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Slow Increase ◽  
Large Variability ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Antarctic Ozone ◽  
Decadal Rate ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mean total ozone column (TOC), ozone volume mixing ratio (VMR), wind speed and temperature poleward of 60° S are investigated. Median values are used to account for large variability in models, and the associated uncertainty is calculated using a bootstrapping technique. According to the trend derived from the twelve CCMVal-2 models selected, Antarctic TOC will not return to a 1965 baseline, an average of 1960–1969 values, by the end of the 21st century in September–November, but will return in ~2080 in December. The speed of December ozone depletion before 2000 was slower compared to spring months, and thus the decadal rate of December TOC increase after 2000 is also slower. Projected trends in December ozone VMR at 20–100 hPa show a much slower rate of ozone recovery, particularly at 50–70 hPa, than for spring months. Trends in temperature and winds at 20–150 hPa are also analyzed in order to attribute the projected slow increase of December ozone and to investigate future changes in the Antarctic atmosphere in general, including some aspects of the polar vortex breakup.

scholarly journals Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Eugene Rozanov ◽  
Julien Anet ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Thomas Peter
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
22Nd Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding potential interferences with natural forcings is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with interactive ocean. We examine several model simulations for the period 2000–2199, following the greenhouse gas scenario RCP4.5, but with different solar forcings: the reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199, whereas the grand solar minimum simulations assume strong declines in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m−2 with different durations. Decreased solar activity is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease. On the global scale the reduced solar forcing compensates at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of 21st and around 25 % at the end of 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be stronger, in particular in northern high latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduced incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to less ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic chlorine-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum in the 22nd century or later.

scholarly journals Decarbonization of the Economy – the General Trend of Development of Russia and Its Regions in the 21st Century

2021 ◽  
pp. 4-13
Author(s):  
Inna Mitrofanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Pilot Project ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Hydrogen Energy ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Gas Emissions

Today the issue of Russia’s low-carbon development and the necessity in cutting down Greenhouse emissions, first of all, carbon dioxide (СO2) is very acute. Over the recent years a lot of documents and regulatory legal acts have appeared in Russia, one way or another related to the decarbonization of the economy, including “National Climate Change Adaptation Plan”, the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation “On Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, “Strategy for the Long-Term Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions up to 2050”, draft Federal Law “On State Regulation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals”, “The Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy in Russia up to 2050”. Russia needs a network of carbon landfills, its own non-discriminatory system for measuring the balance of greenhouse gases, this is the most important factor of national security today. In the near future, the system of calculations will be worked out on the territory of seven regions: the Chechen Republic, the Krasnodar Krai, Kaliningrad, Sakhalin, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk and Tyumen Regions. Since 2020, a pilot project of a carbon landfill has been implemented in Kaluga Region, on lands located within the borders of the Ugra National Park. To finance these projects, it is necessary to attract funds from national projects, first of all, the NP “Clean Air”. Carbon farms are a complex of technologies that enable the absorption of greenhouse gases, and so far for Russia it is mainly forest rather than agricultural technologies. There are about 11 million square kilometers of forests in Russia, and this is a unique reservoir for absorbing CO2, so the 21st century is the century of Russia, which has every chance to become the most important player in the sequestration industry. It is fundamentally important for Russia to become a world leader and gain a high rate of carbon farms development throughout the country. However, there is an acute shortage of qualified personnel for this type of activity in the country, so one of the strategic tasks for Russian universities today is to train specialists for the new sequestration industry in the conditions of a new and inevitable reality – total decarbonization of the economy.

scholarly journals Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 3469-3483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavle Arsenovic ◽  
Eugene Rozanov ◽  
Julien Anet ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Werner Schmutz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Solar Activity ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Solar Minimum ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Ozone Production ◽  
22Nd Century ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry–climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000–2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m−2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m−2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document