The aim – to identify prognostic factors for the development of adverse cardiovascular events (death and hospitalization) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 35 % after long-term observation. Materials and methods. 120 stable patients with CHF, aged 18–75, II–IV functional classes according to NYHA, with LVEF ≤ 35 % were examined. Using multiple logistic regression according to the Cox method, we analyzed independent factors that affect the long-term prognosis of patients with heart failure. Results and discussion. During the observation period, out of 120 patients, 61 patients reached combined critical point (CCР). In the univariate regression model, predictors of CCР reaching were NYHA functional class, weigh loss of ≥ 6 % over the past 6 months, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, patient’s history of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, anemia, number of hospitalizations over the past year and parameters reflecting the functional state of the patient (6-minute walk distance, number of extensions of the lower limb). The risk of CCP developing is significantly higher in patients with lower body mass index, shoulder circumference of a tense and unstressed arm, hip, thickness of the skin-fat fold over biceps and triceps, estimated percentage of body fat. Рredictors CCP reaching are higher levels of uric acid and C-reactive protein. Echocardiographic predictors of CCP onset were LVEF, size of the left atrium, TAPSE score, as well as its ratio to systolic pressure in the pulmonary artery, index of final diastolic pressure in the left ventricle. Also, the risk of CCP reaching is greater at lower values of the flow-dependent vasodilator response. Independent predictors of CCP onset were the circumference of the shoulder of an unstressed arm, the level of C-reactive protein in the blood, and the rate of flow-dependent vasodilator response. When analyzing the indices in 77 patients, who underwent densitometry, it was revealed that the E/E´ index, the index of muscle tissue of the extremities, the index of fat mass, and the ratio of fat mass to growth affect CCP reaching. In a multivariate analysis, taking into account densitometry indices, independent predictors of CCP onset were the size of the left atrium, the index of muscle mass of the extremities, the rate of flow-dependent vasodilator response and the presence of myocardial infarction in anamnesis. Conclusions. Independent predictors of CCP reaching in patients with CHF and LVEF ≤ 35 % are myocardial infarction in anamnesis, lower arm circumference of the arm, limb muscle mass index, flow-dependent vasodilator response, higher levels of C-reactive protein, sizes of the left atrium.
Long-term clinical prognosis predictors in patients with chronic heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction
