SCREENING STOCKS BASED ON THE RATIONAL APPROACH TO DECISION-MAKING

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamio Shimizu ◽  
Marley Monteiro de Carvalho ◽  
Fernando Jose Barbin

In the previous chapters, decisions models have been modeled based on the economic point of view of the problem expressed mainly through quantitative values and, in some cases by qualitative representation. The economic perspective draws unique coherence from economic assumptions of rational behavior and it draws predictive power from strongly valid rules of influence that employ mathematical or logical operators. Because the decision must be expressed in a way that is compatible with the rules of inference, great simplicity, and structure are required. In strategic decision making problems great effort has been directed toward relaxing the mathematical constraints, while retaining the economic — logic inference. Another important aspect to be considered is that in both theoretical and practical decision-making models, fixed numbers of decision alternatives or prefixed value of parameters have been considered. The major inputs to the analysis of an econometric model of decision-making process are subjective probabilities, utility values, and decision tree structures. Individuals may differ in their subjective value of probabilities, their utilities of outcomes or in their perceptions of the subsequent actions available. Strategic decision problems involve not only one person’s opinion but involve a group of individuals belonging to different classes and levels of interests inside and outside the organization. No longer is the problem concerned with the selection of the preferred alternative of one person. The analysis must be extended for a group of decision-makers, each one exhibiting a certain preference structure, perceiving different consequences, and corresponding to a diverse set of interest and responsibility. In some cases, depending on the number of persons involved as well as on the nature of the decision problem (for instance, promoting or hiring persons or, electing the president) it will be necessary to adopt a voting system. How can different groups of individual affect a decision-making process? In this chapter, we consider some behavioral aspects of individuals and group of individuals that may affect a decision-making process. Behavioral perspectives of competitive decision-making are neither as well articulated nor as complete as those of economic view. In behavioral views cognitive limitations and the use of mental effort are emphasized. In contrast to the rational approach of the economic frame, the behavioral views acknowledge that players may adopt different kind of rationality.


1984 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-137
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Jackson ◽  
Neil L. Sass

2017 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-19
Author(s):  
Irena Bakanauskienė ◽  
Laura Baronienė

AbstractThis article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been unified conditions, describing the case of controlled interventions thus providing preconditions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed decision-making process model.


Author(s):  
Chris Alden

Foreign policy decision making has been and remains at the core of foreign policy analysis and its enduring contribution to international relations. The adoption of rationalist approaches to foreign policy decision making, predicated on an actor-specific analysis, paved the way for scholarship that sought to unpack the sources of foreign policy through a graduated assessment of differing levels of analysis. The diversity of inputs into the foreign policy process and, as depicted through a rationalist decision-making lens, the centrality of a search for utility and the impulse toward compensation in “trade-offs” between predisposed preferences, plays a critical role in enriching our understanding of how that process operates. FPA scholars have devoted much of their work to pointing out the many flaws in rationalist depictions of the decision-making process, built on a set of unsustainable assumptions and with limited recognition of distortions underlined in studies drawn from literature on psychology, cognition, and the study of organizations. At the same time, proponents of rational choice have sought to recalibrate the rational approach to decision making to account for these critiques and, in so doing, build a more robust explanatory model of foreign policy.


2020 ◽  
Vol 83 ◽  
pp. 01027
Author(s):  
Nadežda Jankelová ◽  
Diana Puhovichová

During historical development a greater number of decision theories were gradually conceived. Their differences arise from the normative and descriptive characters of individual theories. They differ in basic assumptions such as rationality, available information or choice of a decision. In practical life, they are manifested by accentuation of rational, or even intuitive decision making. This article is devoted to the definition of both types of theories and subsequent examination of the level of rationality in strategic decision making of managers. The findings have shown, that managers use more rational approach than intuitive approach. The most important factors that influence the level of rationality in strategic decision making were external factors. The most important of them has been assigned to a group of competition factors. Other factors influencing the level of rationality in strategic decision-making have been identified, namely the factors of the decision itself and factors of the internal environment. Managers combine rationality with strategic decision-making activities to take advantage of opportunity of an environment. The emphasis in the degree of impact on rationality in strategic decision-making is significant in favor of using the factors of the decision itself. The dependence of the perception of factors of the decision itself was significant in the variable economy.


2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-115
Author(s):  
Janet F Phillips ◽  
Robert A Page

ABSTRACT Purpose—The purpose of this paper is to analyze the classical decision making model as applied to restructuring a Department on Aging services for the State of Connecticut. Mandated by the Connecticut legislature in 2007 to reestablish the department, the Department of Social Services (DSS) commissioned Southern Connecticut State University to recommend a structure for the newly legislated department, which had been disbanded by then-Governor Lowell Weicker in 1993. Design/Methodology/Approach—Qualitative interviews of relevant stakeholders at all levels revealed that while few were satisfied by the current structure of the Department on Aging, there was no consensus concerning the design of a more effective replacement, only deeply held differences. Through the collection and analysis of both qualitative and quantitative data, the decision process on how to best structure aging services becomes hostage to a contingency where this decision model breaks down. The search stage develops a set of alternatives with no clear criteria for rational selection—all choices feature competing sets of strengths and weaknesses, successfully applied by various state agencies. Findings—Decision makers from various stakeholders did agree on two general criteria: that the new department must be feasible (defined mainly in terms of affordability), and that the new department must be strong (defined mainly in terms of control over resources). In the presence of competing values concerning the optimization of effective services, clarification of feasibility and strength through accounting analysis restored a rational basis for agreement and selection of a satisfactory choice, rationalizing an otherwise paralyzed and political decision process. Originality/Value—The process used to design the Connecticut Department on Aging offers a paradigm for other states to consider in developing a structure for elderly services. Elder affairs are clearly an area where passion and complexity are heightened. As a result, accounting analysis, tempered to ensure that profits and numbers do not overshadow the socially responsible purpose of the public organization, presented the most rational approach to develop a structure. The process shows that by managing risk and substituting satisfactory for optimal goals, accounting data emerged as a tie-breaker in the presence of strong competing values. Accounting analysis restores a rational basis for agreement by abandoning the realm of idealistic optimal states and linking alternatives to hard budgetary figures. Accounting analysis grounded estimations of risks in terms of real costs, and presented alternatives in terms of incremental budgetary shifts, which are easier to understand and debate than the philosophical nature of what constitutes the ultimate “senior friendly” community. The proposed plan was actually accepted by then-Governor of the State of Connecticut, M. Jodi Rell, who declared a restoration of a Department on Aging, based upon the final recommendations of this study, effective July 1, 2009. However, for budgetary reasons, Bill SB 841 postponed the reestablishment of a state Department on Aging, but did transfer additional programs on July 1, 2010, which included the state-funded portion of the Connecticut Home Care Program for Elders (CHCPE). Since the budgetary problems of the state intensified, the administration of complex elderly programs which involve Medicare and Medicaid continue to be administrated by DSS indefinitely.


1995 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Vernon J. Rogers

In Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, sewage is discharged to the marine environment after preliminary treatment by screening. In 1992, the CRD undertook related technical investigations including studies of the ocean sediments in the area of the two main outfalls. The results of these investigations, together with information concerning other aspects of liquid waste management, were then described as part of a public involvement program which culminated in a referendum held in November 1992. The referendum invited the public to choose from three options for land-based sewage treatment. All three options included programs such as source control, that offered clear environmental benefits. The majority of voters (56%) decided in favour of the option which includes continuation of the existing level of sewage treatment. This paper describes the process followed, and shows how good science, effective communication, and public involvement can aid a rational approach to decision-making about marine environmental management and wastewater treatment utilizing submarine outfalls. It also highlights some important points concerning development of community and environmental priorities, identification of stakeholders, public involvement, and the role of independent scientific assessment.


2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 1127
Author(s):  
Flavio Santino Bizarrias ◽  
Jussara Goulart da Silva ◽  
Marlette Cassia Oliveira Ferreira

The study of decision-making of people has its origins in economic theory, with a more rational approach. However, several studies have shown that decision-making follows also an emotional model. In great part, decisions are influenced by information we receive through communication framing. In education, students decisions are largely affected by the information they receive through communication issued by the service provider. In a scenario of service failure recovery the influence of emotional or rational messages is little studied. The motivation of this study is the absence of works relating attitudes to services when failure recovery occurs in higher education services, particularly when the framing of the communication signals some position to students, aiming to persuade them. The results showed that rational communication was more effective than emotional ones. It was also found that interpersonal influences tends to reduce positive responses from students to HEI communication strategy, though a moderation process.


2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Matthews

Career decisions are complex ones. Whether clients plan their career in a systematic way, carefully considering their options and making an informed choice or build their careers their own way seizing opportunities, taking chances and profiting from chance and serendipity, career guidance professionals need a least a cursory knowledge of career development theory to adequately understand these decisions. As practitioners, we do not work with homogenised groups, we work with individuals with varying levels of internal and external constraints on career choice. Career decisions are not always made in a considered and informed way. Evidence from Brimrose (2006) suggest that only 25% of the population use a strategic or rational approach to career decision making. In fact, Gladwell (2005) suggests intuitive decision making may be more effective. As Mitchell (2003) attests careers are seldom planned but are often developed by being aware of and acting on the landmarks that appear on the way (Mitchell, 2003, p.4). This dichotomy has led to certain amount of ambivalence to career theory from practitioners. Kidd, et al, (1994) found that practitioners were virtually unanimous in their dismissal of the value of theories of guidanceit was frequently described as airy-fairy or wooly (Kidd, et al, 1994, p.391). Closs (2001) argues that practitioners should focus on meeting the needs of clients and not concern themselves with theory. While development theory can attempt to explain the past experiences, quantifying chance and clients ability to profit from it, is more difficult. However, an understanding of career development theory can help us adapt our professional practice to individual need.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document