scholarly journals Monte Carlo Simulation and Modeling of Schedule, Cost and Risks of Dasu Hydropower Project

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 557-570
Author(s):  
Sajjad Mubin ◽  
Shah Jahan ◽  
Ekaterina Gavrishyk
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Simulation And Modeling ◽  
Hydropower Project ◽  
Successful Completion ◽  
Mitigation Measure ◽  
Risk Sensitive ◽  
Potential Risks ◽  
Made In

HPP (Hydropower Projects) are very complex and risky in nature. For HPP, it is extremely important not only to identify risks but also to adopt proper mitigation measure to complete the project with in defined schedule and budget. Attempt has been made in this paper to identify critical risks associated with Dasu HPP and their mitigation measure to complete the project within predefined time and budget. The research methodology involved the questionnaire survey for identification of potential risks with their probabilities and impact. Pert-Master (Oracle Risk) software was used for simulation purposes. After feeding all data in the software, Monte Carlo simulation was run at 1,000 iterations to generate most probable duration of project, most probable cost of the project, critical risks sensitive to duration, critical risk sensitive to cost and statistically analyzed critical tasks/activities, which need due consideration for successful completion of project. Simulated schedule and budget was compared with planned one to find possible deviations, which may be eliminated by using mitigation measures proposed in the last section of the paper.

NOTES ON EXACT AND SEMI-EXACT LÉVY MODELS FOR THE VALUATION OF CDOs

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (06) ◽  
pp. 979-1000 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. EICHLER ◽  
G. LEOBACHER ◽  
H. ZELLINGER
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Collateralized Debt Obligations ◽  
Simplifying Assumptions ◽  
Collateralized Debt ◽  
Made In

We investigate the effects of certain simplifying assumptions that are often made when valuating tranches of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) using a firm's value approach. Those assumptions are the homogeneity and largeness of the portfolio and the so-called European approximation. The error made in this way is measured by comparing the result to a model with less simplification which is evaluated by the use of Monte Carlo simulation.

scholarly journals A TOPSIS—Risk Matrix and Monte Carlo Expert System for Risk Assessment in Engineering Projects

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 11277
Author(s):  
Georgios K. Koulinas ◽  
Olympia E. Demesouka ◽  
Konstantinos A. Sidas ◽  
Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Matrix Approach ◽  
Simulation Approach ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Artificial Lake ◽  
Risk Manager

In this paper, we propose a process that combines the Risk Matrix approach with the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) and the Monte Carlo Simulation for assessing risk factors that have an impact on the duration of a construction project’s activities and predict if it is feasible to terminate the project within the prescribed deadlines. Initially, we identified the risks affecting each task of the specific project, and then, we applied the risk matrix approach for determining the probability and impact of every risk to each activity. The resulting ranking is used to assign uncertainty to activities’ durations and estimate the probability of on-time project completion, employing the Monte Carlo Simulation approach. The main contribution of this paper is the development of an innovative framework that coordinates an established qualitative and quantitative risk classification approach, with a popular multicriteria method and a powerful simulation approach, to effectively predict time deviations while executing complex construction projects under uncertainty. The proposed framework was applied to estimate the possibility of a timely execution of an artificial lake real project on the island of Alonissos, Greece. The analysis results illustrate that this approach clearly could help the project risk manager proactively perform risk mitigation measures while allocating budget and programming a project with a significant impact on the quality of life of residents and tourists of a small island.

Investment Decisions Based on the Postponed Options PROT Hydropower Project

2014 ◽  
Vol 672-674 ◽  
pp. 2098-2105
Author(s):  
Jun Xin Shen ◽  
Xiao Jun Guo
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Current Method ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation Method ◽  
Hydropower Project ◽  
Project Investment ◽  
Project Valuation

The analysis and description of the current method used in hydropower project investment decisions and problems of the introduction of the Monte Carlo simulation method PROT hydropower project valuation. Examples of analysis results showed that: this method can better reflect the actual value of the uncertainty of hydropower projects, flexibility and projects to provide a reasonable basis for decision makers.

scholarly journals Using Probabilistic Fault Tree Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation to Examine the Likelihood of Risks Associated with Ballasted Railway Drainage Failure

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812098231
Author(s):  
Kristianto Usman ◽  
Michael Peter Nicholas Burrow ◽  
Gurmel Singh Ghataora ◽  
Manu Sasidharan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Asset Management ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Railway Track ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Rational Approach ◽  
Railway Network ◽  
Tree Analysis

Inadequate track drainage can lead to a variety of issues, including flooding, accelerated track degradation, and progressive or sudden failure of railway track, slope, or embankment. These can result in unplanned track maintenance, additional passenger travel costs, and damage to third party property. However, railway drainage asset management is challenging because it involves the consideration of large interconnected assets, limited maintenance budgets, and unknown failure probabilities. To address this issue, this paper introduces a risk-informed approach for railway drainage asset management that uses fault tree analysis to identify the factors that contribute to railway drainage flood risk and quantifies the likelihood of the occurrence of these factors using Monte Carlo simulation. This rational approach enables drainage asset managers to evaluate easily the factors that affect the likelihood of railway track drainage failure, thereby facilitating the prioritization of appropriate mitigation measures and in so doing improve the allocation of scarce maintenance resources. The analysis identified 46 basic and 49 intermediate contributing factors associated with drainage failure of ballasted railway track (undesired event). The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated for three sites on the UK railway network, namely, Ardsley Tunnel, Clay Cross Tunnel, and Draycott. The analysis shows that the Clay Cross Tunnel had the highest probability of drainage failure and should be prioritized for maintenance over the other two sites. The maintenance required should focus on blockages because of vegetation overgrowth or debris accumulation.

Electron Scattering in Solids

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 4-5
Author(s):  
Ryuichi Shimizu ◽  
Ze-Jun Ding
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Elastic Scattering ◽  
Electron Scattering ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Expansion Method ◽  
Electron Excitation ◽  
Partial Wave Expansion ◽  
Backscattered Electrons

Monte Carlo simulation has been becoming most powerful tool to describe the electron scattering in solids, leading to more comprehensive understanding of the complicated mechanism of generation of various types of signals for microbeam analysis.The present paper proposes a practical model for the Monte Carlo simulation of scattering processes of a penetrating electron and the generation of the slow secondaries in solids. The model is based on the combined use of Gryzinski’s inner-shell electron excitation function and the dielectric function for taking into account the valence electron contribution in inelastic scattering processes, while the cross-sections derived by partial wave expansion method are used for describing elastic scattering processes. An improvement of the use of this elastic scattering cross-section can be seen in the success to describe the anisotropy of angular distribution of elastically backscattered electrons from Au in low energy region, shown in Fig.l. Fig.l(a) shows the elastic cross-sections of 600 eV electron for single Au-atom, clearly indicating that the angular distribution is no more smooth as expected from Rutherford scattering formula, but has the socalled lobes appearing at the large scattering angle.

Determination of Stoichiometry of GaAs Component in (Gaas)Ge Epitaxially Grown Thin Films by Electron Microprobe X-Ray Analysis

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 264-265
Author(s):  
D. R. Liu ◽  
S. S. Shinozaki ◽  
R. J. Baird
Keyword(s):  
Thin Film ◽  
Thin Films ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Compound Semiconductors ◽  
Energy Dispersive Analysis ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Metastable Alloys ◽  
Lower Voltage

The epitaxially grown (GaAs)Ge thin film has been arousing much interest because it is one of metastable alloys of III-V compound semiconductors with germanium and a possible candidate in optoelectronic applications. It is important to be able to accurately determine the composition of the film, particularly whether or not the GaAs component is in stoichiometry, but x-ray energy dispersive analysis (EDS) cannot meet this need. The thickness of the film is usually about 0.5-1.5 μm. If Kα peaks are used for quantification, the accelerating voltage must be more than 10 kV in order for these peaks to be excited. Under this voltage, the generation depth of x-ray photons approaches 1 μm, as evidenced by a Monte Carlo simulation and actual x-ray intensity measurement as discussed below. If a lower voltage is used to reduce the generation depth, their L peaks have to be used. But these L peaks actually are merged as one big hump simply because the atomic numbers of these three elements are relatively small and close together, and the EDS energy resolution is limited.

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