The Theory of Games and the Balance of Power

1986 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 546-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Harrison Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Stable Distribution ◽  
International System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Noncooperative Game ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Extensive Form ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
The Stability ◽  
International Systems

The theory of games is used to investigate several controversial issues in the literature on the balance of power. A simple model of an international system is presented as an n-person noncooperative game in extensive form, and the stability of both constant-sum and nonconstant-sum systems is examined. It is shown not only that constant-sum systems with any number of actors from two through five can be stable, but also that stability is actually promoted by conflict of interest. Contrary to much of the literature, however, there is a well-defined sense in which the most stable system is one with three actors. In each type of system, there is at least one distribution of power that leads not only to system stability but also to peace. Some of these peaceful distributions are more stable than others, and these more stable distributions are shown to be characterized by inequality rather than by equality of power. It is possible to distinguish between a bipolar and a multipolar type of stable distribution, the properties of each of which resemble, to some degree, assertions made about them in the literature. Finally, contrary to much of the recent literature on international cooperation, an increase in the ability of states to make binding agreements may actually diminish the stability of international systems.

Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems: Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe

1975 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 859-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. McGowan ◽  
Robert M. Rood
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
International System ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Alliance Formation ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
System A ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
International Systems ◽  
Verbal Model

This paper is a partial systematic test of Morton A. Kaplan's “theory” of alliance behavior in balance of power international systems first proposed in his well-known System and Process in International Politics (1957). Three hypotheses are inferred from Kaplan's writings predicting that in a stable balance of power system, (a) alliances will occur randomly with respect to time; (b) the time intervals between alliances will also be randomly distributed; and (c) a decline in systemic alliance formation rates precedes system changing events, such as general war. We check these hypotheses by applying probability theory, specifically a Poisson model, to the analysis of new data on fifty-five alliances among the five major European powers during the period 1814–1914. Because our research questions are so general, our findings should not be regarded as definitive; however, the data very strongly support our hypotheses. We conclude that Kaplan's verbal model of a balance of power international system has had its credibility enhanced as a result of this paper.

History ends, worlds collide

1999 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 41-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRIS BROWN
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Social Life ◽  
International System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The Social ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
Political Economic ◽  
Business As Usual

The end of the Cold War was an event of great significance in human history, the consequences of which demand to be glossed in broad terms rather than reduced to a meaningless series of events. Neorealist writers on international relations would disagree; most such see the end of the Cold War in terms of the collapse of a bipolar balance of power system and its (temporary) replacement by the hegemony of the winning state, which in turn will be replaced by a new balance. There is obviously a story to be told here, they would argue, but not a new kind of story, nor a particularly momentous one. Such shifts in the distribution of power are a matter of business as usual for the international system. The end of the Cold War was a blip on the chart of modern history and analysts of international politics (educated in the latest techniques of quantitative and qualitative analysis in the social sciences) ought, from this perspective, to be unwilling to draw general conclusions on the basis of a few, albeit quite unusual, events. Such modesty is, as a rule, wise, but on this occasion it is misplaced. The Cold War was not simply a convenient shorthand for conflict between two superpowers, as the neorealists would have it. Rather it encompassed deep-seated divisions about the organization and content of political, economic and social life at all levels.

scholarly journals Multipolar model of international system: stability and conflict

2016 ◽  
pp. 234-248
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Rozumyuk
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
International Relations ◽  
International System ◽  
World Politics ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Berlin Crisis ◽  
The Korean War ◽  
Basic Approaches ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Cold War

It is researched a theoretical model of a multipolar system of international relations at the article. Interest to this themes is caused by needs of Ukrainian political science and diplomacy in schemes of understanding and mechanisms of an adaptation to demands of the modern system of international relations. The aim of the article is to determine factors of a stability and conflicts of a multipolar model of a system of international relations. It is studied basic approaches of designing multipolar model, defined the main factors of its stability and conflicts, highlighted an interdependence of the world politics and knowledge about it. Because of an availability of opposing viewpoints from leading scholars about the stability and conflicts in unipolar, bipolar and multipolar systems, the author concludes that these indicators are important parameters of the real historical system of international relations, but not its abstract model. It is alleged that researchers, which emphasized at more stability of a multipolar system, their theoretical arguments had selected under the direct influence of acute bipolar confrontation during the “Cold War” from the mid-40s to mid-60s of the twentieth century (the Berlin Crisis, the Korean War, the Caribbean Crisis), opposing the “nuclear madness” of a constraint an idealized picture of European “concert of nations” at the first half of the nineteenth century. Instead, cooperation between East and West during the Brezhnev’s «discharging» and Gorbachev’s «new 248 thinking» gave serious reasons for a perception and appraisal by politologists of a bipolar system as stable and without conflicts. Accordingly, the number of poles of a theoretical model of the international system says about its stability not more than a form a glass about a quality of a poured wine.

Party Systems: Types, Dimensions, and Explanations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zsolt Enyedi ◽  
Fernando Casal Bértoa
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Informal Institution ◽  
Democratic Experience ◽  
The Stability

The study of political parties and party systems is intimately linked to the development of modern political science. The configuration of party competition varies across time and across polities. In order to capture this variance, one needs to go beyond the analysis of individual parties and to focus on their numbers (i.e. fragmentation), their interactions (i.e. closure), the prevailing ideological patterns (i.e. polarization), and the stability of the balance of power (i.e. volatility) in all spheres of competition, including the electoral, parliamentary, and governmental arenas. Together, these factors constitute the core informal institution of modern politics: a party system. The relevant scholarship relates the stability of party systems to the degree of the institutionalization of individual parties, to various institutional factors such as electoral systems, to sociologically anchored structures such as cleavages, to economic characteristics of the polity (primarily growth), to historical legacies (for example, the type of dictatorship that preceded competitive politics) and to the length of democratic experience and to the characteristics of the time when democracy was established. The predictability of party relations has been found to influence both the stability of governments and the quality of democracy. However, still a lot is to be learned about party systems in Africa or Asia, the pre-WWII era or in regional and/or local contexts. Similarly, more research is needed regarding the role of colonialism or how party system stability affects policy-making. As far as temporal change is concerned, we are witnessing a trend towards the destabilization of party systems, but the different indicators show different dynamics. It is therefore crucial to acknowledge that party systems are complex, multifaceted phenomena.

Nuclear Technology, Multipolarity, and International Stability

1966 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ciro Elliott Zoppo
Keyword(s):  
International System ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The Other ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Nuclear Deterrence ◽  
Traditional Theory ◽  
System A ◽  
International Stability ◽  
The Stability

Traditional theory of international politics maintains that, other things being equal, a multipolar balance-of-power system. Arms-control theory, on the other hand, generally contends that an increase in independent nuclear powers is a direct threat to the stability of the international system. is more stable than a bipolar system. A bipolar nuclear deterrent relationship is believed to be inherently more stable than one in which equilibrium is maintained among several nuclear powers in independent or alliance relationships. Though the relatively greater stability of a bipolar system may be preferred, its stability is, nevertheless, contingent. Maintaining the stability of mutual nuclear deterrence while restraining aggression is the primary goal of arms control.

Stability in Anarchic International Systems

1990 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 1207-1234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emerson M. S. Niou ◽  
Peter C. Ordeshook
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Extensive Form ◽  
Infinitely Divisible ◽  
Contemporary World ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
Form Model ◽  
International Systems

Can stability emerge solely from the competition and self-interest of sovereign powers existing in a state of anarchy, or does stability depend on restraints from the complex nexus of interdependencies characterizing the contemporary world economy and its associated institutions? We suppose some infinitely divisible resource, that all nation-states are endowed with and maximize and that enables them to overcome adversaries in the event of conflict. We offer a noncooperative, extensive-form model of international conflict without exogenous mechanisms to enforce agreements in order to learn under what conditions balance of power and collective security ensure the sovereignty of all states in anarchic systems. We conclude that there exists at least one world—albeit an abstract one—in which anarchy yields stability.

How Should the US Respond to a Rising China?

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven E. Lobell
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Cold War ◽  
International System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Power Transition ◽  
Post Cold War ◽  
General Logic ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rising China ◽  
Distribution Of Power

Realist Cold War foreign policy approaches emphasize the importance of aggregate measures and metrics of material and military capabilities in the international system. Realists argue that shifts in capabilities and changes in the distribution of power are dangerous and that aggregate power is fungible. These approaches have been carried forward into the post-Cold War period to forecast trends for a declining United States and a rising China or some combination of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). The chapter accepts the general logic of balance of power and power transition theories or aggregate power realism (APR) that shifts in capabilities and changes in power are dangerous.1 However, these approaches miss how state leaders assess power trends, the fungibility or usefulness of material capabilities, and that states rarely balance against concentrations of power. This chapter advances components of power theory that recast APR approaches.

ECOLOGICAL AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE COASTS OF THE KARA SEA TO THE OIL SPILL

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Ermolov ◽  
Alexander Ermolov
Keyword(s):  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
International System ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
International Systems

International experience of oil spill response in the sea defines the priority of coastal protection and the need to identify as most valuable in ecological terms and the most vulnerable areas. Methodological approaches to the assessing the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to oil spills based on international systems of Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) and geomorphological zoning are considered in the article. The comprehensive environmental and geomorphological approach allowed us to form the morphodynamic basis for the classification of seacoasts and try to adapt the international system of indexes to the shores of the Kara Sea taking into account the specific natural conditions. This work has improved the expert assessments of the vulnerability and resilience of the seacoasts.

Stability of Ring-Type MEMS Gyroscopes Subjected to Stochastic Angular Speed Fluctuation

2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel F. Asokanthan ◽  
Soroush Arghavan ◽  
Mohamed Bognash
Keyword(s):  
Angular Velocity ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Microelectromechanical Systems ◽  
Damping Ratio ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
System Stability ◽  
System Response ◽  
Ring Type ◽  
Mems Gyroscopes ◽  
The Stability

Effect of stochastic fluctuations in angular velocity on the stability of two degrees-of-freedom ring-type microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) gyroscopes is investigated. The governing stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are discretized using the higher-order Milstein scheme in order to numerically predict the system response assuming the fluctuations to be white noise. Simulations via Euler scheme as well as a measure of largest Lyapunov exponents (LLEs) are employed for validation purposes due to lack of similar analytical or experimental data. The response of the gyroscope under different noise fluctuation magnitudes has been computed to ascertain the stability behavior of the system. External noise that affect the gyroscope dynamic behavior typically results from environment factors and the nature of the system operation can be exerted on the system at any frequency range depending on the source. Hence, a parametric study is performed to assess the noise intensity stability threshold for a number of damping ratio values. The stability investigation predicts the form of threshold fluctuation intensity dependence on damping ratio. Under typical gyroscope operating conditions, nominal input angular velocity magnitude and mass mismatch appear to have minimal influence on system stability.

Waltz, Durkheim, and International Relations: The International System as an Abnormal Form

1995 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 669-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Barkdull
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Division Of Labor ◽  
International System ◽  
Moral Basis ◽  
Abnormal Form ◽  
International Systems

Drawing on Emile Durkheim's Division of Labor in Society, I offer a typology of international systems. Previous uses of Durkheim to describe international systems suffer a number of conceptual errors and therefore are at variance with the spirit and intention of Durkheim's work. A deeper reading of Durkheim usefully draws attention to the moral basis for society and thus the problems with defining international systems solely in terms of power distributions. Further, rereading Durkheim offers a much richer typology than the simple distinction between mechanical and organized societies, affording in turn fresh insights into change in the international system. The abnormal forms of the division of labor offer the best description of the contemporary international system.

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