Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems: Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe

1975 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 859-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. McGowan ◽  
Robert M. Rood
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
International System ◽  
Poisson Model ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Alliance Formation ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
System A ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
International Systems ◽  
Verbal Model

This paper is a partial systematic test of Morton A. Kaplan's “theory” of alliance behavior in balance of power international systems first proposed in his well-known System and Process in International Politics (1957). Three hypotheses are inferred from Kaplan's writings predicting that in a stable balance of power system, (a) alliances will occur randomly with respect to time; (b) the time intervals between alliances will also be randomly distributed; and (c) a decline in systemic alliance formation rates precedes system changing events, such as general war. We check these hypotheses by applying probability theory, specifically a Poisson model, to the analysis of new data on fifty-five alliances among the five major European powers during the period 1814–1914. Because our research questions are so general, our findings should not be regarded as definitive; however, the data very strongly support our hypotheses. We conclude that Kaplan's verbal model of a balance of power international system has had its credibility enhanced as a result of this paper.

Nuclear Technology, Multipolarity, and International Stability

1966 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-606 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ciro Elliott Zoppo
Keyword(s):  
International System ◽  
Arms Control ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The Other ◽  
Nuclear Technology ◽  
Nuclear Deterrence ◽  
Traditional Theory ◽  
System A ◽  
International Stability ◽  
The Stability

Traditional theory of international politics maintains that, other things being equal, a multipolar balance-of-power system. Arms-control theory, on the other hand, generally contends that an increase in independent nuclear powers is a direct threat to the stability of the international system. is more stable than a bipolar system. A bipolar nuclear deterrent relationship is believed to be inherently more stable than one in which equilibrium is maintained among several nuclear powers in independent or alliance relationships. Though the relatively greater stability of a bipolar system may be preferred, its stability is, nevertheless, contingent. Maintaining the stability of mutual nuclear deterrence while restraining aggression is the primary goal of arms control.

Of Systems, Boundaries, and Territoriality: An Inquiry into the Formation of the State System

1986 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Friedrich Kratochwil
Keyword(s):  
Power Systems ◽  
Conflict Management ◽  
International System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
The State ◽  
State System ◽  
Spheres Of Influence ◽  
Territorial Rights ◽  
Boundary Characteristics ◽  
Buffer States

The author explores the changing functions of boundaries in territorially and nonterritorially based social organizations. By focusing on the exchanges that boundaries mediate, a fuller account can be given of the systems characteristics in which the units interact than is afforded by traditional systems theory. Two case studies demonstrate that imperial boundaries differ significantly from those in the state system. Boundaries are shown to be the major means for conflict management in the international system. The author also investigates shifts in the location of the boundary, characteristics of balance-of-power systems, and the restriction and expansion of the exchanges that boundaries allow through the bundling or unbundling of territorial rights. Most of the latter devices that gave rise to spheres of influence, buffer states, suzerainties, and so forth have been overtaken by events, but functional regimes and spheres of influence based upon tacit rather than explicit rules remain important.

The Theory of Games and the Balance of Power

1986 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 546-576 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Harrison Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Stable Distribution ◽  
International System ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
System Stability ◽  
Noncooperative Game ◽  
Controversial Issues ◽  
Extensive Form ◽  
Distribution Of Power ◽  
The Stability ◽  
International Systems

The theory of games is used to investigate several controversial issues in the literature on the balance of power. A simple model of an international system is presented as an n-person noncooperative game in extensive form, and the stability of both constant-sum and nonconstant-sum systems is examined. It is shown not only that constant-sum systems with any number of actors from two through five can be stable, but also that stability is actually promoted by conflict of interest. Contrary to much of the literature, however, there is a well-defined sense in which the most stable system is one with three actors. In each type of system, there is at least one distribution of power that leads not only to system stability but also to peace. Some of these peaceful distributions are more stable than others, and these more stable distributions are shown to be characterized by inequality rather than by equality of power. It is possible to distinguish between a bipolar and a multipolar type of stable distribution, the properties of each of which resemble, to some degree, assertions made about them in the literature. Finally, contrary to much of the recent literature on international cooperation, an increase in the ability of states to make binding agreements may actually diminish the stability of international systems.

ECOLOGICAL AND GEOMORPHOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT OF THE VULNERABILITY OF THE COASTS OF THE KARA SEA TO THE OIL SPILL

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Ermolov ◽  
Alexander Ermolov
Keyword(s):  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
International System ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Expert Assessments ◽  
International Systems

International experience of oil spill response in the sea defines the priority of coastal protection and the need to identify as most valuable in ecological terms and the most vulnerable areas. Methodological approaches to the assessing the vulnerability of Arctic coasts to oil spills based on international systems of Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) and geomorphological zoning are considered in the article. The comprehensive environmental and geomorphological approach allowed us to form the morphodynamic basis for the classification of seacoasts and try to adapt the international system of indexes to the shores of the Kara Sea taking into account the specific natural conditions. This work has improved the expert assessments of the vulnerability and resilience of the seacoasts.

scholarly journals A study of Babylonian planetary theory III. The planet Mercury

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Teije de Jong
Keyword(s):  
Direct Method ◽  
Step Function ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Stationary Points ◽  
Planetary Motion ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Outer Planets ◽  
Step Functions ◽  
System A ◽  
Computational Systems

AbstractIn this series of papers I attempt to provide an answer to the question how the Babylonian scholars arrived at their mathematical theory of planetary motion. Papers I and II were devoted to system A theory of the outer planets and of the planet Venus. In this third and last paper I will study system A theory of the planet Mercury. Our knowledge of the Babylonian theory of Mercury is at present based on twelve Ephemerides and seven Procedure Texts. Three computational systems of Mercury are known, all of system A. System A1 is represented by nine Ephemerides covering the years 190 BC to 100 BC and system A2 by two Ephemerides covering the years 310 to 290 BC. System A3 is known from a Procedure Text and from Text M, an Ephemeris of the last evening visibility of Mercury for the years 424 to 403 BC. From an analysis of the Babylonian observations of Mercury preserved in the Astronomical Diaries and Planetary Texts we find: (1) that dates on which Mercury reaches its stationary points are not recorded, (2) that Normal Star observations on or near dates of first and last appearance of Mercury are rare (about once every twenty observations), and (3) that about one out of every seven pairs of first and last appearances is recorded as “omitted” when Mercury remains invisible due to a combination of the low inclination of its orbit to the horizon and the attenuation by atmospheric extinction. To be able to study the way in which the Babylonian scholars constructed their system A models of Mercury from the available observational material I have created a database of synthetic observations by computing the dates and zodiacal longitudes of all first and last appearances and of all stationary points of Mercury in Babylon between 450 and 50 BC. Of the data required for the construction of an ephemeris synodic time intervals Δt can be directly derived from observed dates but zodiacal longitudes and synodic arcs Δλ must be determined in some other way. Because for Mercury positions with respect to Normal Stars can only rarely be determined at its first or last appearance I propose that the Babylonian scholars used the relation Δλ = Δt −3;39,40, which follows from the period relations, to compute synodic arcs of Mercury from the observed synodic time intervals. An additional difficulty in the construction of System A step functions is that most amplitudes are larger than the associated zone lengths so that in the computation of the longitudes of the synodic phases of Mercury quite often two zone boundaries are crossed. This complication makes it difficult to understand how the Babylonian scholars managed to construct System A models for Mercury that fitted the observations so well because it requires an excessive amount of computational effort to find the best possible step function in a complicated trial and error fitting process with four or five free parameters. To circumvent this difficulty I propose that the Babylonian scholars used an alternative more direct method to fit System A-type models to the observational data of Mercury. This alternative method is based on the fact that after three synodic intervals Mercury returns to a position in the sky which is on average only 17.4° less in longitude. Using reduced amplitudes of about 14°–25° but keeping the same zone boundaries, the computation of what I will call 3-synarc system A models of Mercury is significantly simplified. A full ephemeris of a synodic phase of Mercury can then be composed by combining three columns of longitudes computed with 3-synarc step functions, each column starting with a longitude of Mercury one synodic event apart. Confirmation that this method was indeed used by the Babylonian astronomers comes from Text M (BM 36551+), a very early ephemeris of the last appearances in the evening of Mercury from 424 to 403 BC, computed in three columns according to System A3. Based on an analysis of Text M I suggest that around 400 BC the initial approach in system A modelling of Mercury may have been directed towards choosing “nice” sexagesimal numbers for the amplitudes of the system A step functions while in the later final models, dating from around 300 BC onwards, more emphasis was put on selecting numerical values for the amplitudes such that they were related by simple ratios. The fact that different ephemeris periods were used for each of the four synodic phases of Mercury in the later models may be related to the selection of a best fitting set of System A step function amplitudes for each synodic phase.

Waltz, Durkheim, and International Relations: The International System as an Abnormal Form

1995 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 669-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Barkdull
Keyword(s):  
International Relations ◽  
Division Of Labor ◽  
International System ◽  
Moral Basis ◽  
Abnormal Form ◽  
International Systems

Drawing on Emile Durkheim's Division of Labor in Society, I offer a typology of international systems. Previous uses of Durkheim to describe international systems suffer a number of conceptual errors and therefore are at variance with the spirit and intention of Durkheim's work. A deeper reading of Durkheim usefully draws attention to the moral basis for society and thus the problems with defining international systems solely in terms of power distributions. Further, rereading Durkheim offers a much richer typology than the simple distinction between mechanical and organized societies, affording in turn fresh insights into change in the international system. The abnormal forms of the division of labor offer the best description of the contemporary international system.

scholarly journals Predictors of Users’ Satisfaction with E-payment System: a Case Study of Staff at the University of Ilorin, Nigeria

Organizacija ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 272-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeyinka Tella ◽  
Isah Abdulmumin
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Academic Staff ◽  
Payment System ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
System A ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
The University ◽  
Perceived Speed

Abstract Background and Purpose: Many organisations are using the e-payment system; however, its effectiveness has not been determined particularly in the Nigeria context. The University of Ilorin as educational organisation started using e-payment system in 2010 and up till now there has been limited or no study conducted to examine whether or not workers are satisfied with the new payment system together with other related ones they are familiar with. It is in the light of this that this study examined users’ satisfaction with the e-payment system at the University of Ilorin, Nigeria. Design/Methodology/Approach: A sample of 260 academic and non-academic staff was taken from six out 12 faculties that made up the university. Using a survey research approach data was collected with a modified questionnaire. Five research questions were developed to guide the study. Results: The results revealed that, respondents (93.5%) were adequately satisfied, satisfied and moderately satisfied, while, only (6.5%) of the respondents were less satisfied and dissatisfied. Perceived speed was identified as the characteristics users mostly satisfied with, followed by system security, traceability, and convenience. Moreover, there is significant correlation among the entire e-payment characteristics/factors (perceived speed, security, anonymity, traceability, perceived ease of payment, and convenience); and that all the six factors jointly predict users’ satisfaction with the e-payment system. In order of magnitude of the prediction/contribution to e-payment, users’ satisfaction, perceived speed made the most significant prediction/contribution. Conclusion: Based on the findings, the study concluded a considerable percentage of the respondents (93.5%) are satisfied with the e-payment system at the University of Ilorin, Nigeria. In lieu of this therefore, there is need to improve the e-payment system so that all and sundry could be satisfied.

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