Age-Structured Models for Endemic Diseases and Optimal Vaccination Strategies

2018 ◽  
pp. 341-382
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Endemic Diseases ◽  
Age Structured

scholarly journals Modelling pertussis transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of an adolescent booster in Argentina

2012 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
pp. 718-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. FABRICIUS ◽  
P. E. BERGERO ◽  
M. E. ORMAZABAL ◽  
A. L. MALTZ ◽  
D. F. HOZBOR
Keyword(s):  
Booster Dose ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Vulnerable Group ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

SUMMARYDue to the current epidemiological situation of pertussis, several countries have implemented vaccination strategies that include a booster dose for adolescents. Since there is still no evidence showing that the adolescent booster has a positive effect on the most vulnerable group represented by infants, it is difficult to universalize the recommendation to include such reinforcement. In this work we present an age-structured compartmental deterministic model that considers the outstanding epidemiological features of the disease in order to assess the impact of the booster dose at age 11 years (Tdap booster) to infants. To this end, we performed different parameterizations of the model that represent distinct possible epidemiological scenarios. The results obtained show that the inclusion of a single Tdap dose at age 11 years significantly reduces the incidence of the disease within this age group, but has a very low impact on the risk group (0–1 year). An effort to improve the coverage of the first dose would have a much greater impact on infants. These results hold in the 18 scenarios considered, which demonstrates the robustness of these conclusions.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of immunization on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus

2000 ◽  
Vol 125 (3) ◽  
pp. 651-669 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. BRISSON ◽  
W. J. EDMUNDS ◽  
N. J. GAY ◽  
B. LAW ◽  
G. DE SERRES
Keyword(s):  
First Year ◽  
Varicella Zoster ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Catch Up ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Age Structured Model ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Do So

The objective of this study was to develop and apply a dynamic mathematical model of VZV transmission to predict the effect of different vaccination strategies on the age-specific incidence and outcome of infection. To do so a deterministic realistic age-structured model (RAS) was used which takes account of the increased potential for transmission within school aged groups. Various vaccine efficacy scenarios, vaccine coverages and vaccination strategies were investigated and a sensitivity analysis of varicella incidence predictions to important parameters was performed. The model predicts that the overall (natural and breakthrough) incidence and morbidity of varicella would likely be reduced by mass vaccination of 12-month-old children. Furthermore, adding a catch-up campaign in the first year for 1–11 year olds seems to be the most effective strategy to reduce both varicella incidence and morbidity (in the short and long term), though with the possible detrimental effect of increasing the incidence of zoster.

Age structure

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odo Diekmann ◽  
Hans Heesterbeek ◽  
Tom Britton
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Social Behavior ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Health Administration ◽  
Public Health Administration ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Human Social Behavior ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Structure Patterns ◽  
Special Case

This chapter elaborates on the special case of age structure. Especially in the context of infectious diseases among humans, “age” is often used to characterize individuals. Partly this reflects our system of public health administration (and, perhaps, our preoccupation with age). There is, however, a more “mechanistic” reason to incorporate age structure: patterns of human social behavior and sexual activity correlate with age. In addition, the effect that the infective agent has on the host sometimes depends heavily on the age of the host (e.g., in polio) or it may depend on another aspect of the host, such as pregnancy, which correlates with age (e.g., in rubella). The chapter also discusses vaccination strategies as one of the major applied issues of age-structured epidemic models.

Mathematical modelling of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV): vaccination strategies and budget applications

2009 ◽  
Vol 138 (6) ◽  
pp. 853-860 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. ACEDO ◽  
J. DÍEZ-DOMINGO ◽  
J.-A. MORAÑO ◽  
R.-J. VILLANUEVA
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Syncytial Virus ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Hospitalized Children ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
Syncytial Virus ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Regional Cost ◽  
Spanish Region

SUMMARYWe propose an age-structured mathematical model for respiratory syncytial virus in which children aged <1 year are especially considered. Real data on hospitalized children in the Spanish region of Valencia were used in order to determine some seasonal parameters of the model. Weekly predictions of the number of children aged <1 year that will be hospitalized in the following years in Valencia are presented using this model. Results are applied to estimate the regional cost of paediatric hospitalizations and to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of possible vaccination strategies.

scholarly journals Optimizing vaccination strategies in an age structured SIR model

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 1074-1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rinaldo M. Colombo ◽  
◽  
Mauro Garavello ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Age Structured

scholarly journals Assessing vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais (Brazil)

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1 Supl) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Marcelo Domingos Marchesin ◽  
Mehran Sabeti
Keyword(s):  
The Elderly ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Elderly Group ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Current Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Brazilian State ◽  
Age Structured

In this work we analyze the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Firstly we study the effectiveness of general vaccination in the decreasing of the number of infected individuals using a traditional non structured SEIR model. Secondly we consider an age-structured SEIR model with three age classes (youngster, adult and elderly) and we analyze the current strategy in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, of focusing the vaccination on the elderly group. We conclude by showing this strategy to be mistaken and that a vaccination focusing on the age group of the adults would be much more efficient in decreasing the total number of infected individuals.

scholarly journals ASSESSING VACCINATION STRATEGIES FOR THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN MINAS GERAIS (BRAZIL)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Marchesin ◽  
Mehran Sabeti
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Elderly Group ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Current Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Brazilian State ◽  
Age Structured

AbstractIn this work we analyze the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Firstly we study the effectiveness of general vaccination in the decreasing of the number of infected individuals using a traditional non structured SEIR model. Secondly we consider an age-structured SEIR model with 3 age groups (youngster, adult and elderly) and we analyze the current strategy in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, of focusing the vaccination on the elderly group. We conclude by showing this strategy to be mistaken and that a vaccination focusing on the age group of the adults would be much more efficient in decreasing the total number of infected individuals.

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