scholarly journals ASSESSING VACCINATION STRATEGIES FOR THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC IN MINAS GERAIS (BRAZIL)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Marchesin ◽  
Mehran Sabeti
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Elderly Group ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Current Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Brazilian State ◽  
Age Structured

AbstractIn this work we analyze the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Firstly we study the effectiveness of general vaccination in the decreasing of the number of infected individuals using a traditional non structured SEIR model. Secondly we consider an age-structured SEIR model with 3 age groups (youngster, adult and elderly) and we analyze the current strategy in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, of focusing the vaccination on the elderly group. We conclude by showing this strategy to be mistaken and that a vaccination focusing on the age group of the adults would be much more efficient in decreasing the total number of infected individuals.

scholarly journals Assessing vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais (Brazil)

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (1 Supl) ◽  
pp. 35
Author(s):  
Marcelo Domingos Marchesin ◽  
Mehran Sabeti
Keyword(s):  
The Elderly ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Elderly Group ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Current Strategy ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Brazilian State ◽  
Age Structured

In this work we analyze the effectiveness of vaccination strategies for the COVID-19 epidemic in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais. Firstly we study the effectiveness of general vaccination in the decreasing of the number of infected individuals using a traditional non structured SEIR model. Secondly we consider an age-structured SEIR model with three age classes (youngster, adult and elderly) and we analyze the current strategy in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais, of focusing the vaccination on the elderly group. We conclude by showing this strategy to be mistaken and that a vaccination focusing on the age group of the adults would be much more efficient in decreasing the total number of infected individuals.

scholarly journals An age-structured SEIR model for COVID-19 incidence in Dublin, Ireland with framework for evaluating health intervention cost

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. e0260632
Author(s):  
Fatima-Zahra Jaouimaa ◽  
Daniel Dempsey ◽  
Suzanne Van Osch ◽  
Stephen Kinsella ◽  
Kevin Burke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Strong Association ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Intervention Cost ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Predictive Approaches

Strategies adopted globally to mitigate the threat of COVID–19 have primarily involved lockdown measures with substantial economic and social costs with varying degrees of success. Morbidity patterns of COVID–19 variants have a strong association with age, while restrictive lockdown measures have association with negative mental health outcomes in some age groups. Reduced economic prospects may also afflict some age cohorts more than others. Motivated by this, we propose a model to describe COVID–19 community spread incorporating the role of age-specific social interactions. Through a flexible parameterisation of an age-structured deterministic Susceptible Exposed Infectious Removed (SEIR) model, we provide a means for characterising different forms of lockdown which may impact specific age groups differently. Social interactions are represented through age group to age group contact matrices, which can be trained using available data and are thus locally adapted. This framework is easy to interpret and suitable for describing counterfactual scenarios, which could assist policy makers with regard to minimising morbidity balanced with the costs of prospective suppression strategies. Our work originates from an Irish context and we use disease monitoring data from February 29th 2020 to January 31st 2021 gathered by Irish governmental agencies. We demonstrate how Irish lockdown scenarios can be constructed using the proposed model formulation and show results of retrospective fitting to incidence rates and forward planning with relevant “what if / instead of” lockdown counterfactuals. Uncertainty quantification for the predictive approaches is described. Our formulation is agnostic to a specific locale, in that lockdown strategies in other regions can be straightforwardly encoded using this model.

scholarly journals Vaccination Prioritization Strategies for COVID-19 in Korea: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 4240
Author(s):  
Yongin Choi ◽  
James Slghee Kim ◽  
Jung Eun Kim ◽  
Heejin Choi ◽  
Chang Hyeong Lee
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Elderly Age ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Effective Age ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Age Dependent

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination has recently started worldwide. As the vaccine supply will be limited for a considerable period of time in many countries, it is important to devise the effective vaccination strategies that reduce the number of deaths and incidence of infection. One of the characteristics of COVID-19 is that the symptom, severity, and mortality of the disease differ by age. Thus, when the vaccination supply is limited, age-dependent vaccination priority strategy should be implemented to minimize the incidences and mortalities. In this study, we developed an age-structured model for describing the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, including vaccination. Using the model and actual epidemiological data in Korea, we estimated the infection probability for each age group under different levels of social distancing implemented in Korea and investigated the effective age-dependent vaccination strategies to reduce the confirmed cases and fatalities of COVID-19. We found that, in a lower level of social distancing, vaccination priority for the age groups with the highest transmission rates will reduce the incidence mostly, but, in higher levels of social distancing, prioritizing vaccination for the elderly age group reduces the infection incidences more effectively. To reduce mortalities, vaccination priority for the elderly age group is the best strategy in all scenarios of levels of social distancing. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of vaccine supply and efficacy on the reduction in incidence and mortality.

scholarly journals Hip fractures among the elderly in Kyoto, Japan: a 10-year study

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maki Asada ◽  
Motoyuki Horii ◽  
Kazuya Ikoma ◽  
Tsuyoshi Goto ◽  
Naoki Okubo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Femoral Neck ◽  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Hip Fractures ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Femoral Neck Fractures ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Trochanteric Fractures

Abstract Summary In Kyoto Prefecture, Japan, the number of hip fractures increased during 2013–2017 compared to 2008–2012. However, the estimated overall incidence rate increased only in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85. Purpose The incidence rate of hip fractures in Japan has plateaued or decreased. We investigated the annual hip fracture occurrences in Kyoto Prefecture, Japan, from 2008 to 2017. Methods Patients aged 65 years and above who sustained hip fractures between 2008 and 2017 and were treated at one of the participating 11 hospitals were included. The total number of beds in these institutions was 3701, accounting for 21.5% of the 17,242 acute-care beds in Kyoto Prefecture. The change in incidence rate was estimated utilizing the population according to the national census conducted in 2010 and 2015. Results The total number of hip fractures was 10,060, with 47.5% femoral neck fractures and 52.5% trochanteric fractures. A decrease in number was seen only in trochanteric fractures in the group of 75- to 84-year-old women. The population-adjusted numbers of femoral neck fractures showed a significant increase in all age groups in men, whereas in women, there was an increase in femoral neck fractures in the ≥85 group and trochanteric fractures in the age group 65–74, and a decrease in trochanteric fractures in the age group 75–84. The estimated change in incidence rate showed an increase in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85. Conclusion In Kyoto Prefecture, the number of hip fractures increased in the second half of the study period (2013–2017) compared to the first half (2008–2012). However, the incidence rate had not increased, except in femoral neck fractures in men aged ≥75 and women aged ≥85.

scholarly journals Suicide in historic cities of a Brazilian state

Rev Rene ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Beatriz Faria Simões ◽  
Luiza Cantão ◽  
Nadja Cristiane Lappann Botti
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
National Health ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
National Health System ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Brazilian State ◽  
Historic Cities

Objective: to analyze the suicide rate in historical regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Methods: epidemiological studyconducted in five historical regions of a Brazilian state. The data used were extracted from the Information Department ofthe National Health System. Results: the Historical Regions of Demonstrations and Wealth presented higher suicide rateswhen compared to the state’s rate. In 11 of the 15 years analyzed, the Region of Wealth had rates higher than that of MinasGerais. Regarding age group, average levels of suicide were found in the age group 20-59 years in 14 years studied. Wealso identified higher suicide rates among men in the Historical Regions. The most used methods in the Historical Regionswere hanging, strangulation and suffocation. Conclusion: the distribution of suicide cases has enabled to understand theepidemiological characteristics of suicide in the Historical Regions of Minas Gerais during the period analyzed.

scholarly journals Impact on human health of particulate matter emitted from burnings in the Brazilian Amazon region

2010 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliane Ignotti ◽  
Joaquim Gonçalves Valente ◽  
Karla Maria Longo ◽  
Saulo Ribeiro Freitas ◽  
Sandra de Souza Hacon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Human Health ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Amazon Region ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Exposure Indicator ◽  
Brazilian Amazon Region ◽  
Complete Blood Counts

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact on human health of exposure to particulate matter emitted from burnings in the Brazilian Amazon region. METHODS: This was an ecological study using an environmental exposure indicator presented as the percentage of annual hours (AH%) of PM2.5 above 80 μg/m3. The outcome variables were the rates of hospitalization due to respiratory disease among children, the elderly and the intermediate age group, and due to childbirth. Data were obtained from the National Space Research Institute and the Ministry of Health for all of the microregions of the Brazilian Amazon region, for the years 2004 and 2005. Multiple regression models for the outcome variables in relation to the predictive variable AH% of PM2.5 above 80 μg/m3 were analyzed. The Human Development Index (HDI) and mean number of complete blood counts per 100 inhabitants in the Brazilian Amazon region were the control variables in the regression analyses. RESULTS: The association of the exposure indicator (AH%) was higher for the elderly than for other age groups (β = 0.10). For each 1% increase in the exposure indicator there was an increase of 8% in child hospitalization, 10% in hospitalization of the elderly, and 5% for the intermediate age group, even after controlling for HDI and mean number of complete blood counts. No association was found between the AH% and hospitalization due to childbirth. CONCLUSIONS: The indicator of atmospheric pollution showed an association with occurrences of respiratory diseases in the Brazilian Amazon region, especially in the more vulnerable age groups. This indicator may be used to assess the effects of forest burning on human health.

scholarly journals Pancreatic Surgery in the Older Population: A Single Institution’s Experience over Two Decades

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhaumik Brahmbhatt ◽  
Abhishek Bhurwal ◽  
Frank J. Lukens ◽  
Mauricia A. Buchanan ◽  
John A. Stauffer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pancreatic Resection ◽  
Care Center ◽  
Tertiary Care ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Pancreatic Resections ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Younger Patient ◽  
Two Age Groups

Objectives. Surgery is the most effective treatment for pancreatic cancer. However, present literature varies on outcomes of curative pancreatic resection in the elderly. The objective of the study was to evaluate age as an independent risk factor for 90-day mortality and complications after pancreatic resection. Methods. Nine hundred twenty-nine consecutive patients underwent 934 pancreatic resections between March 1995 and July 2014 in a tertiary care center. Primary analyses focused on outcomes in terms of 90-day mortality and postoperative complications after pancreatic resection in these two age groups. Results. Even though patients aged 75 years or older had significantly more postoperative morbidities compared with the younger patient group, the age group was not associated with increased risk of 90-day mortality after pancreatic resection. Discussion. The study suggests that age alone should not preclude patients from undergoing curative pancreatic resection.

scholarly journals Age-Related Changes in the 25-Hydroxyvitamin D Versus Parathyroid Hormone Relationship Suggest a Different Reason Why Older Adults Require More Vitamin D

2003 ◽  
Vol 88 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-191 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhold Vieth ◽  
Yasmin Ladak ◽  
Paul G. Walfish
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Vitamin D ◽  
Secondary Hyperparathyroidism ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Hydroxyvitamin D ◽  
Age Related ◽  
25 Hydroxyvitamin D ◽  
The Relationship

Vitamin D requirements are thought to vary with age, but there is little comparative evidence for this. One goal in establishing a vitamin D requirement is to avoid secondary hyperparathyroidism. We studied 1741 euthyroid, thyroid clinic outpatients without evidence of calcium abnormalities, ranging in age from 19 to 97 yr, whose serum and urine had been analyzed for calcium, vitamin D, and parathyroid status. We found no effect of age on the 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentration associated with specific vitamin D intakes, and there was no relationship between 25(OH)D and 1,25hydroxyvitamin D [1,25(OH)2D]. In every age group, serum 1,25(OH)2D declined with increasing creatinine (P < 0.001). What changed with age included creatinine, which correlated with 25(OH)D (r = 0.146, P < 0.001) only in the youngest age group (19–50 yr) but not in the older age groups (P > 0.1). Creatinine did not correlate with PTH in the youngest age group, but the relationship became significant as age increased (e.g. for the elderly, r = 0.365, P < 0.001). Linear regression of log PTH vs. log 25(OH)D agreed with the natural shape of the relationship observed with scatterplot smoothing, and this showed no plateau in PTH as 25(OH)D increased. We compared PTH concentrations among age groups, based on 20 nmol/liter increments in 25(OH)D. Mean PTH in adults older than 70 yr was consistently higher than in adults younger than 50 yr (P < 0.05 by ANOVA and Dunnett’s t test). PTH levels of the elderly who had 25(OH)D concentrations greater than 100 nmol/liter matched PTH of younger adults having 25(OH)D concentrations near 70 nmol/liter. This study shows that all age groups exhibit a high prevalence of 25(OH)D insufficiency and secondary hyperparathyroidism. Older adults are just as efficient in maintaining 25(OH)D, but they need more vitamin D to produce the higher 25(OH)D concentrations required to overcome the hyperparathyroidism associated with their diminishing renal function.

scholarly journals Modelling pertussis transmission to evaluate the effectiveness of an adolescent booster in Argentina

2012 ◽  
Vol 141 (4) ◽  
pp. 718-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. FABRICIUS ◽  
P. E. BERGERO ◽  
M. E. ORMAZABAL ◽  
A. L. MALTZ ◽  
D. F. HOZBOR
Keyword(s):  
Booster Dose ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Vulnerable Group ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

SUMMARYDue to the current epidemiological situation of pertussis, several countries have implemented vaccination strategies that include a booster dose for adolescents. Since there is still no evidence showing that the adolescent booster has a positive effect on the most vulnerable group represented by infants, it is difficult to universalize the recommendation to include such reinforcement. In this work we present an age-structured compartmental deterministic model that considers the outstanding epidemiological features of the disease in order to assess the impact of the booster dose at age 11 years (Tdap booster) to infants. To this end, we performed different parameterizations of the model that represent distinct possible epidemiological scenarios. The results obtained show that the inclusion of a single Tdap dose at age 11 years significantly reduces the incidence of the disease within this age group, but has a very low impact on the risk group (0–1 year). An effort to improve the coverage of the first dose would have a much greater impact on infants. These results hold in the 18 scenarios considered, which demonstrates the robustness of these conclusions.

The changing face of cancer in the elderly—Only a demographic change?

2006 ◽  
Vol 24 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 18597-18597
Author(s):  
Y. Rottenberg ◽  
T. Peretz
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Older Women ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Cancer Burden ◽  
Two Age Groups

18597 Background: In industrial countries, the cancer burden of the elderly is high and is increased. One reason is longer life expectancy. Increasing age standardized rates of cancer in this age group compared to younger groups may also explain this phenomenon. Methods: Two age groups were examined, above and below 65 years. Each age group was further divided into men and women. The age standardized rates for all cancers combined among the Jewish population in Israel were identified through the Israel Cancer Registry during the years 1973–2002. In addition, lung and colorectal cancers according to sexes, prostate cancer in men and breast cancer in women were examined. Results: Between the first 5 years of the study (1973–1977) and the last 5 years (1998–2002) the age standardized rates for all cancers combined were raised by about one third in the two age groups. In males, the overall change was higher in the older group (42% in men aged 65 years and older compared to 31% in men younger than 65). However, the rise in the younger group was more prominent in females (42% in women younger than 65 years compared to 33 % in women aged 65 and older). The most outstanding increase was in prostate cancer in men, but mainly in the younger group (176% in the older group and 368% in the younger group) followed by breast cancer in women, more prominent in the older group (64% in the older group and 50% in the younger group). In both sexes, more noticeable increases were noted in the older groups in colorectal cancer and in lung cancer. Between the years 1993–1997 and 1998–2002 shifts towards stabilization and even a decrease was noted in some of the cancers that were examined. In men aged 65 years and older rates for all cancers combined were decreased by 2.5%, among the specific tumors and a decrease was noted in lung cancer (6.7%) and prostate cancer (5.8%). The rates for all cancers combined among the older women were slightly decreasing (2.0%). No decrease was noted in the specific tumors in this group. Among the younger groups in both sexes, no decrease (defined >0.5%) was noted. Conclusions: These data argue against the hypothesis that the overall change in the cancer burden in the aged could be also explained by differences changes in the risk of developing cancer between these two age groups. No significant financial relationships to disclose.

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