scholarly journals PENGHINDARAN RISIKO KREDIT INVESTASI OLEH DEBITUR DI INDONESIA PASCA KRISIS 1997

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aloysius Deno Hervino
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
National Income ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research aimed to estimate the short run and long run (steady state) model on credit market, which influenced on risk hindering behavior by debtor, and taking banking regulation into model as a shock. Analyzing on investment credit market is related with asymmetric information problem and dynamic decision. This research was using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) to analyze this behavior because all variables were integrated on different level. In the short run, the debtor behaviors is only influenced by real interest rate on rupiah working capital, and in the long run his behavior influenced by real interest rate on rupiah working capital, and expected on real national income. But debtor behavior do not influence by real interest rate on rupiah investment credit in short and long run. Banking regulation do not influence the investment credit risk hindering behavior on debtor. On average, every change in explanatory variables need 24 days by debtor to adjust his behavior on investment credit market.

scholarly journals PENGHINDARAN RISIKO KREDIT INVESTASI OLEH DEBITUR DI INDONESIA PASCA KRISIS 1997

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Aloysius Deno Hervino
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
National Income ◽  
Credit Market ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This research aimed to estimate the short run and long run (steady state) model on credit market, which influenced on risk hindering behavior by debtor, and taking banking regulation into model as a shock. Analyzing on investment credit market is related with asymmetric information problem and dynamic decision. This research was using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model (ARDL-ECM) to analyze this behavior because all variables were integrated on different level. In the short run, the debtor behaviors is only influenced by real interest rate on rupiah working capital, and in the long run his behavior influenced by real interest rate on rupiah working capital, and expected on real national income. But debtor behavior do not influence by real interest rate on rupiah investment credit in short and long run. Banking regulation do not influence the investment credit risk hindering behavior on debtor. On average, every change in explanatory variables need 24 days by debtor to adjust his behavior on investment credit market.

scholarly journals INFLASI DARI SUDUT PANDANG MONETER DAN FISKAL (STUDI KASUS SUMATERA BARAT)

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Zul Azhar ◽  
Alpon Satrianto ◽  
Nofitasari Nofitasari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of money supply M2, interest rate, government spending and local tax on the inflation in West Sumatera. This type of research is descriptive research and secondary datain the form of time-series from quartely 1 2007 to 2017 quartely 4 using the method of Autoregresive Distributed Lag analysis. The results of this study indicate that money supply in the long run have a significant and positive effect on inflation West Sumatera. In the short run  and long run the interest rate has a significant and positive effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Government spending in the Long run has a significant and negative effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Based on the result of this study can be concluded that there is inflation in West Sumatera is monetery of phenomenon in the long run. 

scholarly journals The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment

2004 ◽  
Vol 94 (5) ◽  
pp. 1303-1327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis J Maccini ◽  
Bartholomew J Moore ◽  
Huntley Schaller
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inventory Investment ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper presents a model that provides an explanation, based on regime switching in the real interest rate and learning, of why tests based on stock-adjustment models, Euler equations, or decision rules—which emphasize short-run fluctuations in inventories and the interest rate—are unlikely to uncover a negative relationship between inventories and the real interest rate. The model, however, predicts that inventories will respond to long-run movements, that is, to regime shifts in the real interest rate. Tests emphasizing cointegration techniques confirm this prediction and show a significant long-run relationship between inventories and the real interest rate.

scholarly journals EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS ON EXPORT OF SOME SELECTED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN EMERGING AFRICAN COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-112
Author(s):  
E. A. OLUBIYI ◽  
F. KOLADE ◽  
D. A. DAIRO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Mixed Effect ◽  
Exchange Rate Movement ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movement on export of five selected agricultural products, in five emerging countries in Africa. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method was employed to analyse the data spanning 1995 to 2015. It was found that, in the short run, exchange rate has a mixed effect on the product across countries, that is, in some products and countries, exchange rate affects export positively, while in some countries and product exchange rate movement has a negative effect on export.  Further, exchange rate does not have long run effect on sugar and fruits and nuts in most of the countries.  Consequently, it is recommended that government, in countries where exchange rate depreciation increases export, should maintain depreciation. Further, there should be provision of adequate infrastructure that will enhance agricultural production.   In the same vein, interest rate on loans given to farmers should be minimal, so as to encourage borrowing to finance agricultural production.  This recommendation is mostly relevant to countries where interest rate affects export negatively.    

scholarly journals Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Bank Credit in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Mohamed Sharif Bashir ◽  
Ahmed Abdu Allah Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
National Income ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The main objective of the paper is to examine the relationship between bank credit and the major macroeconomic variables of Saudi Arabia during the period from 1993 to 2019. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method was employed to estimate the short-run and long-run effects of the major macroeconomic variables on bank credit. The study revealed that the real exchange rate and money supply have positive long-run effects on bank credit compared to the negative effects of inflation on bank credit. Gross domestic product (GDP) has a negative effect on total bank credit, which is in conflict with the Keynesian view. In the short run, the effect of GDP on bank credit is negative, whereas inflation has a positive influence on bank credit. Based on the findings, the study suggests some expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, such as raising asset prices and lowering the costs of borrowing, increasing spending and cutting taxes to produce budget deficits for stabilizing the financial system and increasing national income to promote sustainable and stable growth in bank credit.

scholarly journals The Role of Gold Prices and Interest Rate in Stock Index: Insights from Vietnam by Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Le Thi Minh Huong ◽  
Phan Minh Trung
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aimed to determine the impact of domestic gold prices, interest rates in the stock market index (VNI) in Vietnam for the period of January 2009 to December 2018. This study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to check the association of Independent variable gold prices and the interest rate on the dependent variable stock market index. The results show a close correlation together in the long-run. The Vietnam stock index is adversely affected by fluctuations in the credit market in the short-run. We observed that domestic gold prices and interest rates have one-way causal relations to the stock price index. Similarly, interest rates were causal for gold prices and still not yet had any particular direction. The adjustment in the short-run moves the long-run equilibrium, although the change is quite slow.

scholarly journals Democracy, Globalization and Private Investment in Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kwabena Obeng ◽  
Linda Akoto ◽  
Felicia Acquah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Civil Liberties ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
National Income ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Short Run

The article examines the effects of democracy and globalization on private investment in Ghana for the period 1980–2012, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration and the error correction model (ECM). Two models are used. In Model 1, democracy is proxy by an index for institutional quality (Polity 2), while Model 2 uses an index for civil liberties as proxy for democracy. The results for Model 1 show globalization and public investment increase private investment, while exchange rate volatility and trade openness decrease private investment in both the long and short run. In addition, national income and interest rate reduce private investment in the short run. In the case of Model 2, credit to the private sector and public investment increase private investment, while exchange rate volatility and trade openness decrease private investment in both the long and short run. Finally, national income and interest rate reduce private investment in the short run. The findings and policy recommendations of the article provide vital information for policy implementation in Ghana.

scholarly journals The Impact of key Macroeconomic factors on Economic Growth of Bangladesh: a VAR Co-integration Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 667-673
Author(s):  
Md. Arphan Ali ◽  
Md. Khaled Saifullah ◽  
Fatimah Binti Kari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzes the impact of key macroeconomic factors on economic growth of Bangladesh from the period of 1988 to 2012.The key macroeconomic factors studied are market capitalization, foreign direct investment and real interest rate. This study also examines the long run and short run relationship between the economic growth and capital market, foreign direct investment, and real interest rate by using vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR results suggest that the market capitalization, foreign direct investment and real interest rate have impact on economic growth in the long run, but in short run it does not have any predictable behavior. The variance decomposition results also conclude the same result as VAR model. All variables have the long run effects on economic growth but it does not have in short run, and the effects increases with time. Based on the finding, this study suggests that the government should come out with the appropriate macroeconomic plan and policy to draw more inward foreign direct investment, increase market capitalization and stabilize real interest rate in order to faster the economic growth in future. As finding of this study shows that these factors do not have significant impact on economic growth in Bangladesh in the short run

scholarly journals Determinants of Capital Flight In Ghana

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2017) ◽  
pp. 104-126
Author(s):  
Richmond Forson ◽  
Camara Kwesi Obeng ◽  
William Gabriel Brafu-Insaidoo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run

The study investigated the short-run and long-run determinants of capital flight in Ghana using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique. The long-run and short-run results show that real GDP growth rate, higher domestic real interest rate over foreign interest rate, financial development, good governance and strong property rights reduce capital flight, while external debt to GDP leads to increase in capital flight in Ghana. However, lagged external debt to GDP and lagged financial development had negative and positive effect respectively in the short-run. The study recommends that government should adopt more pro-growth policies and resort to domestic borrowing to reduce external debt. The Central Bank of Ghana should improve on the development of the financial sector and ensure competitive domestic interest rates. It is also recommended that Public Accounts Committee (PAC) in Ghana should continue to ensure accountability and transparency to strengthen the interest of domestic investors.

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