DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP STABILITAS RUPIAH

This research aimed to study the impact of monetary policy on the rupiah stability. Variables used were the interest rate of Bank Indonesia Certificate (SBI), the rate of inflation (IHK), the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar (Kurs) and the money supply in the narrow sense (M1). Data used were of quarterly time series data of Bank Indonesia and Central Bureau of Statistic, covering 2002.1-2010.4. The analysis was undertaken by using a vector autoregression model (VAR), through the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD). The research results showed that in the sort run shocks of SBI decreased the inflation rate, and in the long run the inflation rate was constant. The exchange rate tended to be appreciated in the short run and long run although in a small magnitude. Money supply decreased with a minor fluctuation. Initially, the money supply shocks increased the interest rate of SBI, but decreased in the long run. The rate of inflation fluctuated in the sort run but it was constant in the long run. The exchange rate was depreciated both in the sort run and in the long run.

Download Full-text

The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Sectoral Indices in Indonesia

ETIKONOMI ◽

10.15408/etk.v16i1.4323 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 71-80 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Bambang Sutrisno

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Emerging Market ◽

Estimation Method ◽

Least Square ◽

Series Data ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

The Interest Rate ◽

The Impact

This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on sectoral indices in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The difference in sensitiveness among sectors is an interesting issue to investigate this relationship in an emerging market, such as Indonesia. This study employs ordinary least square (OLS) as an estimation method with monthly time-series data from January 2005 to December 2014. The results document that the interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on sectoral indices in Indonesia. The interest rate partially shows a significant negative influence on all sectors except basic industry and chemical, finance, infrastructure, utilities, and transportation, and miscellaneous industry sectors. The inflation rate partially has no significant effect on all sectors. The exchange rate partially has a significant negative impact on all industries.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v16i1.4323

Download Full-text

An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria

African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development ◽

10.52589/ajesd-ey7iwkd2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 185-198

Author(s):

Okosu Napoleon David

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Current Account ◽

Series Data ◽

Current Account Balance ◽

National Account ◽

Long Run ◽

The Impact

The study interrogates the impact of exchange rate on the economic growth of Nigeria from 1981 to 2020 using quarterly time-series data from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the World Bank National Account. The dependent variable in the model was Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), and the independent variables were Exchange Rate (EXCHR), inflation (INFL), Interest Rate (INTR), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Broad Money Supply (M2) and Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB). The methodology employed was the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model which incorporates the Cointegration Bond test and Error-Correction Mechanism. The finding indicates that in the short run, EXCHR, CAB, M2 and FDI, had a positive impact on economic growth. The impact of EXCHR and CAB were significant on growth while that of M2 and FDI were insignificant to growth. However, INTR and INFL had a negative impact on economic growth with both variables being statistically significant. The bound test showed that there was a long-run relationship among the study variables, and the results from the long run reveal that the exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Inflation, Interest rate, FDI, Current Account Balance of Payment (CAB) and Broad Money Supply all have a positive and significant impact on economic growth. Based on the findings the study recommended that monetary authority should strictly monitor the operations of banks and other forex dealers with a view of ensuring unethical practices are adequately sanctioned to serve as a deterrent to others.

Download Full-text

Implication of Monetary Policy Rate and Interest Rate on Exchange Rate in Nigeria: 1981-2017

South Asian Journal of Social Studies and Economics ◽

10.9734/sajsse/2019/v4i130115 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-11

Author(s):

Nnamani, Vincent ◽

Anyanwaokoro, Mike

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Unit Root Test ◽

Series Data ◽

Statistical Tool ◽

Long Run ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The Impact

The study investigated the implication of monetary policy rate on the exchange rate and interest rate in Nigeria, 1981-2017. Because of the above-stated problems, the specific objectives are to: Investigate the effect of monetary policy rate on the exchange rate in Nigeria, determine the effect of the monetary policy rate on interest rate in Nigeria. The analysis of error correction and autoregressive lags fully covers both long-run and short-run relationships of the variable under study. The statistical tool of analysis employed in the study is Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Philips Peron method of stationary testing and structural breakpoint unit root test., these methods were employed to check the stationarity and breakpoint analysis of the time series data employed in this study. The study observed that monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on the exchange rate in Nigeria. It was also observed that the monetary policy rate has a positive and significant effect on the interest rate in Nigeria. Overall, our results indicated that the impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate was significant. There was a positive and significant relationship between monetary policy variables and exchange rate. The conclusion that is drawn from our results is that monetary policy remains an effective and potent tool for ensuring a stable exchange rate in Nigeria. The study recommended that monetary policy should be used to create a favourable investment environment by facilitating the emergence of market-based interest rate and exchange rate regimes which could attract domestic and foreign investments. Second; the Central bank of Nigeria (CBN) need to avoid ordination and balance between monetary and fiscal policies to ensure the smooth realization of monetary policy goals. Policy inconsistency or summersault to determine its policy impact before contemplating a change. Finally, there should be a coo.

Download Full-text

Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 1999Q1-2019Q2

Jurnal Samudra Ekonomi dan Bisnis ◽

10.33059/jseb.v11i2.1919 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 197-209

Author(s):

Erric Wijaya

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rates ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Short Term ◽

Long Run ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The Interest Rate

The exchange rate plays an important role in influencing the level of Indonesia's international trade towards trading partner countries. This study discusses the factors that influence the exchange rate of the rupiah against dollar both in the short and long term. The variables that are suspected to influence changes in exchange rates are the inflation rate, the interest rate (SBI), world oil prices, the value of exports, and the value of imports. This research was conducted during 1999 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 2. The results showed that there was a long-term and short-term relationship between inflation rates, interest rates, world oil prices, exports and imports to the exchange rate. In the short term, the interest rate and world oil prices have a significant effect on the exchange rate. In the long run, the inflation rate, world oil prices and imports have a significant effect on the exchange rate.

Download Full-text

DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN INFLATION TARGETING TERHADAP BEBERAPA VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan ◽

10.21098/bemp.v9i1.153 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 9 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Yati Nuryati ◽

Hermanto Siregar ◽

Anny Ratnawati

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Inflation Targeting ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Policy Instrument ◽

Series Data ◽

Long Run ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The Interest Rate

This paper discusses the effects of the inflation targeting framework on a number of macroeconomic variabels in Indonesia, especially after the enactment of Law No. 23/1999. The objectives of the paper are: (1) to describe the independence aspect of the inflation targeting policy; and (2) to highlight the effects of the inflation targeting on a set of main macroeconomic variables.The anaysis uses the Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach, emploting the time series data during the periode of 1998:1 to 2003:6. The main results of this research are: (1) The Central Bank (BI) independence is not yet effective in the implementation of the inflation targeting; (2) the shock on the interest rate affects price level and the exchange rate trivially; and (2) the factors that influence price’s variability are the base money, the interest rate, and the exchange rate. In the long run, a shock to the base money is more important than to the interest rate and to the exchange rate. The study suggests to use base money as the policy instrument of the monetary policy, instead of the short term interest.Keywords: monetary policy, independence, inflation targeting, VARJEL Classification: C32, E31, E52

Download Full-text

A Study on the Relationship between Money Supply and Macroeconomic Variables in China

Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences ◽

10.1515/mjss-2017-0046 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 8 (6) ◽

pp. 99-107 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Yugang He

Keyword(s):

Interest Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Series Data ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

The Real ◽

Real Gdp ◽

The Interest Rate ◽

The Impact ◽

The Relationship

AbstractMany scholars have examined the importance of the money supply to the macroeconomics in developed countries. However, few studies have explored this proposition in developing countries. So, in this paper, annual series data from 2000 to 2016 is applied to analyze the relationship between the money supply (M2) and the macroeconomic variables (the real GDP, the inflation rate & the interest rate) under the vector auto regression (VAR) model in China. The purpose of this paper is to verify the impact of these variables on the money supply in China. After performing an empirical analysis, conclusions can be obtained that an increase in the real GDP can result in an increase in the money supply; Also, an increase in the inflation rate can lead to an increase in the money supply; Conversely, an increase in the interest rate can cause a decrease in the money supply. Therefore, via adjusting the change of real GDP, inflation rate and interest rate, a better control of the money supply can be performed for the policy-makers in China.

Download Full-text

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

Journal of Economics and Development ◽

10.33301/2015.17.01.02 ◽

2015 ◽

pp. 20-40

Author(s):

Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy

Keyword(s):

Monetary Policy ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Monetary Transmission ◽

Impulse Response Functions ◽

Short Run ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The Interest Rate ◽

Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

Download Full-text

Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia (Suatu Pendekatan Model Dinamik)

Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan ◽

10.26418/jebik.v7i2.24199 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 85

Author(s):

Afrizal Afrizal

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Error Correction ◽

Money Supply ◽

Correction Term ◽

Research Data ◽

Cointegration Test ◽

The Exchange Rate ◽

The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the magnitude of the effect of the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate on inflation in Indonesia during the period 2000.12016.4. The analysis tools used for this research data are: unit root test, integration degree test, cointegration test, error correction model / ECM. The results showed that all staioner research data at level 1 (first difference) based on cointegration test showed that the variables observed in this study co-integration or have long-term relationship. The ECM model used is valid, as indicated by the error correction term (ECT) coefficient is significant. In the short run the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate is not significant to the inflation rate, but in the long term is significant.

Download Full-text

Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Manufacturing Output in Nigeria

Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences ◽

10.2478/mjss-2018-0024 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 43-54 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Adegbemi Babatunde Onakoya

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Interest Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Inflation Rate ◽

Manufacturing Sector ◽

Percent Level ◽

Negative Relationship ◽

Preliminary Evaluation ◽

Macroeconomic Factors ◽

The Impact

AbstractThis paper examined the impact of the changes in the macroeconomic factors on the output of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1981 to 2015. Preliminary evaluation of the data was conducted using both descriptive statistics and stationarity evaluation. The test indicated that not all the variables are normal. The occurrence of order integration at first level difference necessitated the deployment of the Johansen cointegration test. The findings revealed no short run association among manufacturing output and each of GDP, exchange rate, broad money supply and unemployment rate. Negative relationship existed amongst inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate, broad money supply on one hand, and manufacturing output. The inflation rate and interest rate, were statistically insignificant. However, significant and positive relationship existed between GDP of the previous year and unemployment on the one hand and manufacturing output on the other, at 5 percent level. The results showed that manufacturing was a veritable engine of economic growth. The post estimation tests showed presence of serial correlation but evidence of heteroscedasticity existed which, made the model inefficient, but its estimator is still unbiased. The study recommended the harmonization of both fiscal and monetary policies for the attainment of macroeconomic stability and avoidance of rapid policy summersaults.

Download Full-text