scholarly journals DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI

2007 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suyanto . ◽  
Anika Widiana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Institutional Factor ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stationary Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

This study examines the determinants of Growth in Indonesia using time series data from the first quarter of 1980 to fourth quarter of 2000. The result of OLS regression model shows that labor, physical capital, human capital, openness, and an institutional factor give positive effects to economic growth in Indonesia. This finding supports the arguments presented by neo-classical economists. The effect of institutional variable (e.g. inflation), in particular, exhibit the intervention of the central bank and the government in inflation and economic growth. Since the estimators consist of autocorrelation, the stationary test is applied to test the integration degrees and co-integration methodology is adopted to examine the linear combination of selected variables. The Granger’s two step error correction model tells us that the short-run disequilibrium is divergent from time to time from the long-run equilibrium, with the moderate speed of divergence. However, at least the long-run OLS estimators are unbiased, consistent, and asymptotically normally distributed.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH REMITANSI, INVESTASI ASING LANGSUNG, IMPOR DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Regina Septriani Putri ◽  
Ariusni Ariusni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Abstract : This study examined and analysis the effect of remittances, foreigndirect investment, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia in the long run andshort run. This study using Error Correction Model (ECM) method and using theannual time series data from 1989 to 2018. This study found that: (1) remittancehave an insignificant positive effect on economic growth in the long run and shortrun,(2)foreign direct investment have a significant positive impact on economicgrowth in the long run and short run, (3) import have an insignificant positiveimpact on economic growth both in the long run and short run. To increase theeconomic growth in the future, this study suggests the government to decresingimports of consume goods and increasing the inflow of capital goods, rawmaterial goods, remittances and foreign direct investment.Keyword : Remittance, Foreign Direct Investment, Import, Economic Growth andECM

scholarly journals Foreign direct investment and economic growth in Albania: a co-integration analysis

2016 ◽  
pp. 234-244
Author(s):  
Eglantina Hysa ◽  
Livia Hodo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Real Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government

Theoretical studies strongly support the positive effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the host country through technology transfer, human capital formation, etc. This study aims to examine the real effects of FDI in the economic growth of Albania, since FDI was one of the first pillars of the economy that the government gave priority to after 1990. This relationship was investigated by using the Co-Integration approach for the quarterly data from 1991 to 2012. The time series data are taken from the Bank of Albania. As expected, the empirical findings of this study reveal the existence of a long run relationship of GDP growth and FDI to GDP ratio. Being strongly correlated to each other, FDI to GDP ratio shows its significant contribution to Albanian economic growth.

scholarly journals Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Brunei: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Issa Moh’d Hemed ◽  
Suleiman Malik Faki ◽  
Salim Hamad Suleiman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Pollution ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bound Test

Aims: This study examined the short run and long run dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution in Brunei. We adoptedAuto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to scrutinize the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) among the studying variables by using time series data cover the period of 1974 to 2014. Methodology: The ARDL bound test revealed the existence of long-run relationship among the integrated variables when CO2 chosen as a dependent variable. Results: The results support the existences of EKC hypotheses in the long-run whereas in the short-run an inverted U-shaped curve was not confirmed between GDP and CO2 in Brunei. The results of Granger causality based on VECM analysis have shown unidirectional causality runs from economic growth to CO2 in the short run. Further analysis through stability test indicates the coefficients in the model are stable and do not suffers with structural break within the time taken in the study. Conclusion: The government of Brunei should proceed to target the sustainable means of production, which has an environmental friendly and consumes less energy to enhance economic growth and maintain environmental quality in the long run.

scholarly journals FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-33
Author(s):  
Ogbebor Peter ◽  
◽  
Awonuga Adesola ◽  
Ezenwa Anthony ◽  
Oamen Gregory ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government

The effects of financial crises on economic growth of countries are destabilizing and research interests in this area in the case of Nigeria has not be sufficiently exhibited, hence, this study. The study examined the effect of financial crises on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data that covered a period from 1986 to 2019. For data analysis, the major empirical tools utilized are Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Co-integration and ECM techniques, following the result of the unit root tests that revealed mixture of I(0) and I(1). The ARDL Co-integration result revealed that long run relationship exists among the selected variables of interest in this study. Furthermore, ECM technique revealed that Financial Crises have negative and significant effect on Economic growth in Nigeria both in the long run and short run. Also, the effect of current value of Inflation was found to be negative and significant in the long run and that of Trade openness was positive and statistically significant in the short run. Also, the study found that there are long run and short run positive and significant impacts of Liberalization on Economic growth. Finally, the findings revealed that the current year values of Money Supply have negative and significant impact on current Economic growth; however, its past value has positive impact. The study concluded that a long-run relationship existed between financial crises and economic growth; specifically, such crises have negative and significant effects on economic growth of Nigeria. The government in general should tinker with the current policy prescription regarding the establishment of financial institutions especially those that cannot qualify for the status of domestically systematically important to avert recurring crises in the financial sector that have impacted the macro-economy negatively.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

Has the low level of economic growth spurred informal sector activities in Uganda? An empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Esaku
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Informal Sector ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Revenue Collection ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

PurposeIn this paper, the authors examine how economic growth shapes the shadow economy in the long and short run.Design/methodology/approachUsing annual time series data from Uganda, drawn from various data sources, covering the period from 1991 to 2017, the authors apply the ARDL modeling approach to cointegration.FindingsThis paper finds that an increase in economic growth significantly reduces the size of the shadow economy, in both the long and short run, all else equal. However, the long-run relationship between the shadow economy and growth is non-linear. The results suggest that the rise of the shadow economy could partially be attributed to the slow and sluggish rate of economic growth.Practical implicationsThese findings imply that addressing informality requires addressing underlying factors of underdevelopment since improvements in economic growth also translate into a reduction in the size of the shadow economy in the short and long run.Originality/valueThese findings reveal that the low level of economic growth is an issue because it spurs informal sector activities in the short run. However, as the economy improves, it becomes an incentive for individuals to operate in the informal sector. Additionally, tackling shadow activities in the short run could help improve tax revenue collection.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals An Econometric Validation of Malthusian Theory: Evidence in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-90
Author(s):  
Musa Abdullahi Sakanko ◽  
Joseph David
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
Malthusian Theory

Rising population is an asset, provided, the skills of the workforce are used to the maximum extent. If not appropriately channelized, it can be a liability for a nation. A skilled and hardworking population can emerge as a foundation for a country’s development. This study examines the validity of Malthusian Theory in Nigeria using time series data from 1960 to 2016, employs the ARDL bound test techniques. The result shows that in the long-run, population growth and food production move proportionately, while population growth poses a depleting effect on food production in the short-run, thus validating the incidence of Malthusian impact in Nigerian economy in the short-run. The researcher recommended the government should strategize plans, which will further intensify family planning and birth control measure, compulsory western education and revitalization of the agricultural sector.DOI: 10.150408/sjie.v7i1.6461

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