scholarly journals Relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on output growth in Turkey: an ARDL bounds test approach

Equilibrium ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 391-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Özer ◽  
Veysel Karagöl

Research background: Effects of monetary and fiscal policy on output growth has been one of the major topics that economists have been investigating. Monetary and fiscal policies are tools for economists and policymakers to correctly direct the economy and facilitate the growth and development of the country. Accordingly, it is critically important for policy-makers in the area of economy to study the efficiency and the effectiveness of such policies. But, so far, there has been no generally accepted evidence suggesting the effectiveness of either the policy in Turkey or around the world. Instead, the dominance of either policy is subject to a change period to period and country to country. Purpose of the article: The purpose of this study is to analyze the growth effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies and then determine which of these two policies is more powerful in promoting economic growth in Turkey over the period 1998 and 2016. Methods: To investigate the growth effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies, we use some of the time series econometric techniques, such as ARDL Bounds testing, structural break unit root tests and Granger causality tests. Findings & Value added: Monetary policy variable is creating only short-run effects on growth; but, it’s not causing any Granger causality on it. On the other hand, fiscal policy variable has a long-run significant effect and causing to growth. Thus, the fiscal policy seems to be more effective than monetary policy during examination period, implying the rethinking the implementation of both policies in Turkey. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first attempt to investigate the relative effectiveness of economic policies on growth in Turkey in terms of both methods used and period chosen.

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 220
Author(s):  
Kabanda Richard ◽  
Peter W. Muriu ◽  
Benjamin Maturu

The aim of this study was to explain the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in explaining output in Rwanda. The study used a sample of quarterly data for the period 1996-2014. Applying a recursive VAR, the study used 12 variables, including 5 endogenous and 7exogenous variables to the benchmark model and other two specifications were attempted to capture the true contribution of monetary and fiscal policies to variations in nominal output. Obtained results using impulse responses and variance decomposition provide evidence that monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy in explaining changes in nominal output in Rwanda. In addition, monetary policy explains better output when the VAR model contains domestic exogenous variables than when they are not included, suggesting the relevance of including domestic exogenous variables in VAR specification of monetary and fiscal policies effectiveness on economic variables. Another suggestion is that in order to achieve higher growth, the government of Rwanda should rely more on monetary policy as compared to fiscal policy.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
David Iheke Okorie ◽  
Manu Adasi Sylvester ◽  
Dak-Adzaklo Cephas Simon-Peter

This study employs the auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to ascertain the relative effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in Nigeria using a quarterly time-series from 1981-2012. From our analysis, it discovered that monetary and fiscal policies both have significant positive impact income. This conforms to a priori expectation and we discovered that monetary policy effects income faster than fiscal policy. In the short run, monetary policy effects income more than fiscal policy but the reverse is the case for the long run. Total impact of fiscal policy is higher than that of monetary policy. This study supports the use of both policies to achieve change in income but this depends on the objective the authorities want to achieve.


1991 ◽  
Vol 30 (4II) ◽  
pp. 931-941
Author(s):  
M. Aynul Hasan ◽  
Qazi Masood Ahmed

Monetary policy, in general, refers to those steps taken by the Central Bank to achieve such broader objectives of the economy as growth, employment, external balance and price stability through changes in the money supply, interest rates and credit policies. The money supply thus created by the Central Bank should be in response to the changes in key macroeconomic target variables such as GNP, balance of payments, inflation, internal debt and unemployment. Indeed, a properly estimated monetary policy reaction function can provide useful information regarding such matters as to whether the Central Bank, in fact, has been systematically accommodating to the changes in the target variables. The reaction function can also provide insight into the question as to what should be the relevant indicators of the monetary policy. In addition, as argued by Havrilesky (1967), it may also play a crucial role in the formulation of long-term monetary policy strategy. The other important consideration in the development of a monetary policy reaction function pertains to the endogeneity of the monetary policy. As pointed out by Goldfeld and Blinder (1972), if a policy variable responds to the lagged (or expected) target values, then considering such a policy variable as exogenous would not only introduce the problem of misspecification but will also produce serious biases in the parameters estimated from those models. In particular, if the monetary policy variable happens to be strongly influenced by target variables, then the standard result of the relative effectiveness of the monetary policy vis-a-vis fiscal policy can be questionable on the grounds of reverse causation problem.


2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Eleni Vangjeli ◽  
Anila Mancka

Monetary and fiscal policies are two policies that the government could use to keep a high level of growth, with a low inflancion. Fiscal policy has its initial impact on the stock market, while monetary policy in market assets. But, given that the goods and active markets are closely interrelated, both policies, monetary as well as fiscal have impact on the economy, increasing the level of product through the reduction of interest rates. In our paper we will show how functioning monetary and fiscal policies. But also in our paper we will analyze the different factors which have affected the economic growth of the country. The focus of our study is the graphical and empirical analysis of economic growth, policies and influencing factors. For the empirical analysis we have used data on the economic growth in Albania for 1996– 2014.


2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tumpak Silalahi ◽  
Tevy Chawwa

The objective of this paper is to review the impact of crisis and policy measures taken during the crisis, to evaluate the effectiveness of those measures and to analyze the exit strategy in Indonesia. The econometric model was used to evaluate the impact of monetary and fiscal policy to economic output using quarterly data from 1990 - 2010. The result shows that monetary and fiscal policies have significant impact to economic output. In the short run the changes in real GDP is significantly affected by changes in real monetary supply in the previous three quarter and real fiscal expenditures. The lesson learned from this research among other are that cooperation and coordination among the policy makers and the timely responses are very important in tackling the crisis; an effective conventional monetary policy in normal times may become less effective in a crisis thus unconventional monetary policy indeed necessary as timely policy response and the improvement for more timely disbursement of government expenditure is important to increase the effectiveness of this policy to stimulate economic output. Moreover, several Indonesian exit strategy and policies to face future challenges are very important to reach the ultimate objective of sustainable economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability. JEL Classification : E52, E62, E63Keywords: monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial sector policy, global financial crisis.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richmond Sam Quarm ◽  
Mohamed Osman Elamin Busharads

In conventional economics, two types of macroeconomic policy i.e. fiscal policy and monetary policy are used to streamline the business cycle. This paper has examined the cyclical behavior of these variables over the business cycle of Bangladesh. The objective of this examination is to show whether policies (fiscal policy and monetary policy) in Bangladesh are taken with a motive to stabilize the economy or only to promote economic growth. In other words, it has examined whether the policies in Bangladesh are procyclical or countercyclical or acyclical. Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter has been used to separate the cyclical component of considered variables. Both correlation and regression-based analysis have provided that in Bangladesh government expenditure and interest rates behave procyclically, but money supply behaves acyclically over the business cycle. Besides, this paper has tried to identify the long-term as well as the short-term relationship between real GDP and the macroeconomic policy variables with the help of the Johansen cointegration test, vector error correction model (VECM), and block exogeneity Wald test. Through these analyses, this study has found that fiscal policy has a significant impact on GDP growth both in the short-run and long-run. In the case of monetary policy, although the interest rate has an impact on real output both in the short-run and long-run, the money supply has neither a short-run nor long-run effect on output growth.


Author(s):  
Musa Umar ◽  

The research was motivated by the conviction that inflation entails sizeable economic and social cost, and that for achieving a sustainable economic growth, management of inflation is a prerequisites. Co-integration and autoregressive error correction model approach was used to investigate the effect of money supply, fiscal deficits and export on the relative effectiveness of fiscal policy in Nigerian consumer driven economy. The study reveals there is a significant causal relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and the variables considered in the research. The Granger causality outcomes demonstrate that t here is no causality between money supply and inflation in Nigeria within the study period, meaning that there are different economic conditions that are key determinant of inflation in Nigeria. We conclude that fiscal policies have a significant influence on the output growth of the economy, and recommend that the Central Bank of Nigeria should guarantee an exchange rate stability and sound monetary surveillance, look inward for ways to regulate the interest rates that will encourage private and foreign investors to transform our consumer driven economy.


Author(s):  
Tricia Coxwell Snyder ◽  
Donald Bruce

<p class="MsoBlockText" style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">Can expansionary fiscal or monetary policy stimulate the U.S. economy in light of recent events?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Using an Error-Correction-Vectorautoregression, we examine the relative effectiveness of both types of governmental stabilization policy. Unlike previous studies, we use a more general error correction vectorautoregression (ECM) approach.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Our focus is on determining the relative explanatory power of measures of monetary policy (M2 and the Federal Funds Rate) and fiscal policy (marginal income tax rates and government spending) in explaining movements in consumption, investment, and output.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">&nbsp; </span>Results suggest that monetary policy is relatively more powerful than fiscal policy. </span></span></span></p>


1992 ◽  
Vol 31 (4II) ◽  
pp. 759-769
Author(s):  
Muhammad Hussain

The Granger and the Sims causality tests as applied to annual data from Pakistan for the period 1971-72 to 1989-90, help us in arriving at identical conclusions even though in the former test growth rates of the relevant variables were used and in the latter natural logged and filtered variables were used. Both tests detected unidirectional causality running from monetary variables (monetary base and money stock) to nominal GNP in Pakistan for the period under study. Both tests also suggest that there is unidirectional causality running from nominal GNP to the total government expenditure in Pakistan for the period under study. The findings of the study suggest that changes in monetary variables do exert their influence on economic activity, represented by the nominal GNP, in Pakistan. The results of the study also provide some evidence that changes in total government expenditure rather than causing changes in the nominal GNP in Pakistan, are rather influenced by the changes in the nominal GNP. Thus, the findings of the study suggest that the monetary policy was relatively more effective than the fiscal policy in influencing the nominal GNP in Pakistan, during the period under study.


Author(s):  
Taras Marshalok

Introduction. Economic cycles, the periodic emergence of economic imbalances, deep economic crises, the need for effective management of economic fluctuations have created the need to develop an effective mechanism for anti-cyclical economic regulation. As a result of the in-depth study of these problems, it has been established that the most effective instruments of anti-cyclical economic regulation are financial instruments owned by the state and divided into monetary and fiscal ones. They in turn are divided into discretionary and non-discretionary, and regulated by legislative acts and regulatory documents. As a result of a retrospective analysis of management of economic cycles through the use of financial means of the state, it has been proved that monetary policy is less sustainable than economic fiscal policy. On the contrary, for the last century, precarious monetary policy has caused many financial and economic upheavals; the world has seen at least three monetary and monetary systems that have been subject to a downturn every time. Therefore, it is not worth considering monetary policy sufficiently effective in the implementation of anti-cyclical regulation. While fiscal policies each time, in all economic crises, have played the role of a "lifeline" for countries that have taken anti-cyclical economic regulation measures. That is why the study of the problem of effective state management of socio-economic fluctuations is one of the most urgent issues of economic science. The goal of the work. To investigate the essence of monetary and fiscal instruments of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy, to identify their strengths and weaknesses, to propose effective mechanisms of counter-cyclical regulation of the economy, which would ensure economic development in the country. Methods. In the course of the research, general scientific and empirical methods of economic science based on a systematic approach are used, in particular: methods of scientific knowledge: dialectical and logical, analysis and synthesis, generalization, graphical, scientific abstraction - in the study of state financial policy in the field of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy. Results. The article deals with the essence of monetary and monetary systems, analyzes their weak and strong sides, identifies the causes of their decline. It was established that monetary factors influenced the emergence of centers of economic crises. The essence of fiscal policy, its types and models, and the way in which its instruments influence the course of the economic cycle are considered and deeply analyzed. The mechanisms of fiscal policy, which should be used by the state at different stages of the economic cycle, are singled out. It is proved that in economically developed countries during the economic crisis it is expedient to use a socially-oriented model of fiscal policy of acyclic nature that most effectively influences the overcoming of economic imbalances and is capable of ensuring the economic equilibrium in the country as soon as possible. Countries that effectively applied the liberal model of fiscal policy, in the conditions of the economic crisis, were forced to resort to transformation towards a more rigid fiscal intervention by the state in economic processes-they were forced to use socially-oriented, acyclic fiscal policies. Only the wider participation of the state in the regulation of economic processes have ensured the rapid and effective overcoming of economic crises, and contributed to the achievement of economic development in most countries of the world. Perspectives. The results of scientific research can be useful for scientists and practitioners who are engaged in research on problems of anti-cyclical regulation of the economy, state financial policy and, in particular, fiscal policy.


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